DFS Alerts
Batters from both side have a wOBA of .375 or better against Erik Johnson
Stacking in Petco is rarely advocated, but Erik Johnson has been hammered by batters from both sides since last season (LHBs – .375 wOBA, 41 Hard%, RHBs – .438 wOBA, 38.7 Hard%). All Baltimore bats except for Hardy have a wRC+ above 115 vs RHP this season and an overall wRC+ above 130 over the last week. Of that group, only Kim does not have a .200+ ISO vs RHP this season. Orioles bats are a great pivot from Coors tonight, even at higher prices. Chris Davis has a .320 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Hyun-Soo Kim, Erik Johnson, J.J. Hardy
Blackmon OUT, Story back, Adames leads off against Happ
J.A. Happ has allowed just a .307 wOBA to RHBs, but the Rockies have the 2nd highest projected run total at home tonight (5.94 runs). Five different Colorado batters have a .230+ ISO vs LHP this year (Arenado, Gonzalez, Story, Raburn, and Hundley) with Adames a top value in the leadoff spot for just $2.2K on DraftKings. All batters are playable on either site though players might want to be cautious with Mark Reynolds (64 wRC+, .054 ISO vs LHP this season) for $4.8K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, J.A. Happ, Cristhian Adames, Nick Hundley, Trevor Story, Ryan Raburn, Mark Reynolds Start of tonight's WAS/NYM game to be delayed
The tarp is coming onto the field in Washington, which will lead to a delayed start to tonight’s game. We’ll continue to update this situation until this game locks. For a full breakdown of tonight’s weather report, check out the link below.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Mariners sneakily implied to score 4.9 runs, total has increased 0.5 runs
Jon Niese is a league average LHP that struggles against right handed batters (5.6% K-BB%, .386 wOBA). The Mariners have surprisingly been one of the best offenses in baseball and among the leaders in HR all season. The Mariners could be one of the best under the radar spots to look for offense tonight. This means the elite target in the Mariners offense is our favorite lefty masher Nelson Cruz (182 wRC+, .437 wOBA, .376 ISO vs LHP). Chris Iannetta (144 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .169 ISO vs LHP), Dae-Ho Lee (120 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP), and Franklin Gutierrez (162 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .275 ISO vs LHP) are the best options to consider if needing to build a Mariners stack around Cruz. Note that Gutierrez gets pinch hit for frequently as soon as a RHP enters the game.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chris Iannetta, Dae-Ho Lee, Franklin Gutierrez, Jon Niese
Jimenez costs just $4.8K on DraftKings against worst offense vs RHP (76 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB%) at Petco
Ubaldo Jimenez struck out seven of 26 Padres, but still walked four in his last start in Baltimore. Tonight, in Petco, players might have to consider him against the worst offense vs RHP (76 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB%) in the majors for just $4.8K on DraftKings, if paying up for offense or another high priced pitcher. RHBs have a .338 wOBA against him since last season, but just a 26.5 Hard% with control being his major issue and walks don’t win daily fantasy contests. One San Diego bat that might be interesting as a punt play is Alex Dickerson from the left side for just $2.3K on DraftKings, batting 5th. He’s yet to do much in the majors, but had a 173 wRC+ at AAA this season.
Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson Greinke has struggled at home (.342 wOBA, 10.9 K-BB%) and faces red hot Phillies (142 wRC+ last seven days)
Zack Greinke faces the third worst offense vs RHP (78 wRC+, 5.9 Hard-Soft%), but also one of the hottest offenses in the majors (142 wRC+, 15.8 K%, 20.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week) in a difficult park, where he’s struggled this season (.342 wOBA against, 10.9 K-BB%, 35.6 Hard%) at a cost of $10.6K on either site. Expected to generate a bit of ownership on name value alone (his and the Phillies), players could consider fading him in favor of Lester or Kluber at a similar cost at least on FanDuel. On DraftKings, it might be more difficult, but paying up for Lester and maybe drop down to Archer or Urias in your second spot. There’s no doubt he can pitch well here, but from a purely statistical standpoint, but name values might cause him to be over-owned. Phillies bats are uninteresting, though four of them have a wRC+ above 180 over the last week.
Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated
There are a few games with a chance chance of rain tonight, but Kevin is mostly concerned with NYM@WSH as a potential delay or a possible PPD, if things break the wrong way. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page, linked below, and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Twins only have a 88 wRC+, .306 wOBA versus LHP, strike out at a 24.5% clip
Quintana (3.91 SIERA, 16.3% K-BB%) has had a couple rough outings recently on the road against some tough offenses. However, a home matchup versus the strikeout prone Twins offense may be a perfect spot to get back on track. Quintana could be one of the safest SP options on the slate tonight but still has that double-digit strikeout upside needed in tournaments. We should look to avoid Twins batters for the most part, but if searching for a contrarian mini-stack of sorts, Robbie Grossman (183 wRC+, .445 wOBA, .256 ISO vs LHP), Brian Dozier (158 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .240 ISO vs LHP), and Eduardo Nunez (157 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .310 ISO vs LHP) make for decent options to consider.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Robbie Grossman, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Nunez Blue Jays are projected for a slate high 6.7 runs tonight in Coors
The visiting team in Coors is often the top projected offense, but it’s not often nearly a run above the next highest offense, but that’s what we see tonight with Toronto being projected for 6.7 runs tonight. All bats are playable and worth paying up for on either site against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs (.437 wOBA, 33.8 Hard%) and RHBs (.368 wOBA, 29.8 Hard%) to hammer him since last season. The top bats (Donaldson and Encarnacion) may be most worth paying up for as well as being potentially the top two bats overall tonight. Both have a wRC+ just below 150 with an ISO above .260 vs RHP since last season. Devon Travis (135 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP career) is a great buy batting 2nd, especially on FanDuel for $3.7K. Michael Saunders (139 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP this season) rounds out the four players should attempt to pay up for if possible, but all bats project well here.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Troy Tulowitzki, Eddie Butler, Devon Travis, Michael Saunders LHBs have a 34.9 Hard% vs Kyle Gibson this year, White Sox LHBs are affordable on FanDuel
Kyle Gibson has just a 2.9 K-BB%, but has kept the ball on the ground 57.1% of the time with a 26.8 Soft% vs RHBs. LHBs (34.9 Hard%, 50.0 GB%) have done a bit of damage and have a .324 wOBA against him since last season. The White Sox have a 4.81 run projection tonight, one of the highest outside Coors. Somebody has to score those runs. Melky Cabrera (109 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $3K on FanDuel, while Alex Avila (98 wRC+ vs RHP) has a 241 wRC+ and 60 Hard% over the last week, making an interesting and affordable Catcher batting 7th for just $2.4K on FanDuel or even $3.1K on DraftKings. Adam Eaton (100 wRC+ vs RHP) has shown little power this season, but can be played for $3.2K on FanDuel as well.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Adam Eaton, Kyle Gibson Brewers implied run total has decreased to 3.9 runs
The only things holding Urias (3.28 SIERA, 29.7% K%) back from being an elite pitching option tonight is that he is highly unlikely to pitch more than 5 innings and the Dodgers travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in hitter-friendly Miller Park. The park downshift is negated by the fact that the Brewers are a weak offense overall and are extremely strikeout prone (23.8% K% vs LHP). While Urias makes for a decent SP option, we can also look to a few Brewers bats in tournaments as we expect Urias to not pitch deep into this game. Ryan Braun (182 wRC+, .449 wOBA, .267 ISO vs LHP) is easily the top target in this Brewers lineup. Jonathan Villar (146 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .154 ISO vs LHP) and Chris Carter (120 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .328 ISO vs LHP) can also be considered if deciding to fade Urias.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter Yordano Ventura has struck out 15 of his last 49 with just 1 BB, but Carpenter and Moss have destroyed RHP this year
Yordano Ventura has pitched much better of late, striking out 15 of his last 49 batters with just one walk, shutting down another tough lineup (Detroit) into the seventh inning in his last start. The Cardinals are one of the top offenses in baseball (115 wRC+ on the road, 119 wRC+ vs RHP), so he’s not on our radar tonight, but perhaps players should think twice about attacking him tonight. Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss both have a wRC+ above 170 with an ISO above .300 vs RHP this season, remaining in play, but at high prices tonight. Matt Holliday has continued his strong work against RHP this year (128 wRC+, .227 ISO). He costs under $4K and has a 187 wRC+ with a 55.6 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Matt Holliday, Yordano Ventura Hamels has upside, but a career high 9.1 BB% with 15 HRs and Yankees bats are cheaper than usual at home
Cole Hamels generally ends up with strong numbers, but is very unpredictable start to start. In fact, this year, with a 2.79 ERA, he has estimators closer to four with a career high 9.1 BB%. He still holds some upside in a not so terrible spot (Yankees 87 wRC+ vs LHP) and could be considered on two pitcher sites with some tight pricing tonight, though an $11.3K cost on DraftKings makes him a bit of a risk. He’s also allowed 15 HRs this year, so a few Yankees bats at reduced prices might be interesting here. Carlos Beltran (152 wRC+, .329 ISO vs LHP this year) costs $3.7K on either site. Alex Rodriguez (121 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP) can still hit lefties and costs under $3.5K. Mark Teixeira (82 wRC+, .066 ISO vs LHP this year) is off to a rough and injury riddled start, but homered last night and costs just $2.2K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira Xander Bogaerts OUT tonight amid recent Red Sox struggles
Chris Archer has not been the Chris Archer that we’ve come to know and love so far this season. His struggles can be traced directly to an inflated 9.6% BB% and an absurdly high 18.6% HR/FB rate. Not only is Archer due for regression to his overall HR/FB rate, he has done a much better job keeping the ball in the the park at home in the spacious Tropicana Field (12.5% HR/FB). The Red Sox have been the most dangerous offense in MLB for the majority of the season but have hit a rough patch lately (99 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .138 ISO over the last 14 days). There are much better places to find offense tonight than the Red Sox bats whom receive a massive ballpark downgrade in the Trop. However, we could look to David Ortiz (199 wRC+, .474 wOBA, .380 ISO vs RHP) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (161 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .311 ISO vs RHP) as potential tournament plays with upside if Archer continues with his HR problems.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Starting Lineups Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Sabathia has a low 10.1 K-BB%, but lots of weak contact (25.1 Soft%) this year
C.C. Sabathia has his lowest K-BB (10.1%) since 2004. He’s had a 12+ HR/FB every year since 2012, but has only allowed three this year. However, a lot of weak contact (25.1 Soft%) backs that up, though it’s a change from harder contact rates each of the four previous years. The Rangers actually handle LHPs better than RHPs (107 wRC+, 15.3 HR/FB), despite all the LHBs, so this is not a good spot for him, but we may want to reconsider an all out attack on him as RHBs have a .342 wOBA against him since last season, but just .278 this season. Ian Desmond (164 wRC+, .190 ISO vs LHP this season) may be priced a bit high ($5.2K), but players can still consider some exposure to Adrian Beltre (126 wRC+, .176 ISO vs LHP this season) and lefty masher Ryan Rua (184 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP this season) for $4K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond, CC Sabathia