DFS Alerts
Napoli sits, Ramirez bats cleanup in NL park against RHP who allows a lot of hard contact
Matt Wisler has an ERA with estimators well above five over the last month. LHBs have a .375 wOBA against him in his young career with a 38.2 Hard% this year. All Cleveland LH bats are rosterable here. Carlos Santana (118 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) returns to the of the leadoff spot in the NL park tonight. He along with other top of the lineup bats Kipnis (139 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Lindor (124 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP career) should be worth marginal price tags tonight. Red hot Lonnie Chisenhall (270 wRC+ last seven days – 121 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP this year) may be a bargain batting 5th, but contrarian players could consider #7 hitter Tyler Naquin (157 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP) for just $3.4K on DraftKings. He has a 252 wRC+ over the last week. He strikes out a lot, but has hit the ball hard 43.9% vs RHP.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Matt Wisler, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin
Lucas Giolito is the third top pitching prospect to debut against the Mets in just over a month
Lucas Giolito will be the third highly touted prospect (number one for the Nationals) to make their debut against the Mets over the last month or so (Urias, Taillon), while his overall readiness at least, might be a bit more hotly debated among scouts and analysts than the other two. He hasn’t pitched a game above AA and has just an average K-BB around 13% over 22 AA starts combined from last year. He has a double digit walk rate this year (10.9%) with at least four walks on five different occasions. He’s not in a bad spot tonight, but at just 22 years old in a few weeks, has not done a lot to prove major league readiness yet. A patient bat like Curtis Granderson (115 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP this season) might take advantage of his weaknesses, while Yoenis Cespedes (128 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP this season) is always difficult to take completely off the board in all but the toughest of matchups. They are both quite expensive on DraftKings (above $4.5K), but Granderson is a bit more affordable at $3.6K on FanDuel. Brandon Nimmo is minimum priced on FanDuel again, batting seventh, and was known for his patience in the minors.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Brandon Nimmo, Lucas Giolito Harvey costs just $6.5K on DraftKings and has a 20.7 K% over the the last month facing a team 93 wRC+ vs RHP
Matt Harvey has been a bit better than his disaster or a week in two starts against the Nationals a month back (allowing 11 ERs with just three strikeouts). Two mediocre outings against the Braves last two times out gives him a league average K% (20.7) with a 2.25 ERA, but 3.87 SIERA and 3.71 xFIP over the last month. There appear to be two interesting avenues in this game. Harvey’s price keeps falling on DraftKings (now $6.5K), where he still might have some upside against a marginal offense against RHP (93 wRC+). It’s more difficult to justify on FanDuel for $8.3K, where Bryce Harper (140 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP this season) might be intriguing at $3.6K. He had a much publicized long hitless streak against Harvey to start their careers, but recently snapped that and we’re talking about a vastly different pitcher this year.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper Corey Kluber has at least six Ks in 13 of last 14 starts, gets Atlanta tonight (76 wRC+ vs RHP)
Corey Kluber might be tonight’s top arm with at least six strikeouts in 13 of his last 14 starts. It’s been a pretty consistent six to nine Ks and he’s only failed to pitch into the seventh inning three times in his last 12 starts. He also has maybe the top matchup in Atlanta tonight (73 wRC+ at home, 76 wRC+ vs RHP). Kluber is a no-brainer pay up for on FanDuel for $10.8K. It might be more of a challenge for $13.4K on DraftKings, but still probably worth it. Atlanta has tonight’s lowest projected run total (3.07). The one mention-able bat here is Jace Peterson (101 wRC+) as a min-priced leadoff hitter on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jace Peterson The Cubs have the top projected run total (5.32) outside of Colorado
The Cubs have the top projected run total (5.32) outside of Colorado and are the only other team even above five runs. RHBs have a .343 wOBA against John Lamb in his short career with LHBs hitting him even harder (.409 wOBA, 34.3 Hard%). The entire lineup is playable, right down to the punt Catcher batting 8th (212 wRC+, .382 ISO vs RHP for David Ross this season). Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might be the top bat in a same handed matchup, though Kris Bryant (130 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP career), who had a monstrous night last night, will challenge for that. Both are bats that should be worth paying up for. Javier Baez (178 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP career) is a lower cost value play, especially on FanDuel ($2.9K).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, David Ross, John Lamb LHBs have a .377 wOBA vs Pelfrey since last season, but Mattingly keeps them towards bottom of order
The whims of Don Mattingly drop one of the team’s best hitters vs RHP, Derek Dietrich (138 wRC+, .196 ISO since last season) down to seventh again in a great spot against Mike Pelfrey (RHBs .377 wOBA since 2015), while he only seems to hit leadoff in tougher spots. Justin Bour (132 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015 – 340 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days) and Christian Yelich (132 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both solid plays on either site. RHBs hit the ball a lot more often on the ground (57.4% this year) with just a 23.4 Hard% vs Pelfrey since last season.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Derek Dietrich, Mike Pelfrey Lester has struck out at least seven in six straight starts
Jon Lester struck out at least seven for the sixth straight start and exactly seven for the third straight, going seven innings with two runs or less for the fourth time in five starts. The Reds have some power (15.8 HR/FB at home), but this is a good spot for him (16.0 K-BB% at home, 15.2 K-BB% vs LHP). Lester is one of tonight’s top pitchers, though a cost above $11K begins to stretch the limits of his upside. He does have estimators more than a run above his 3.10 ERA due to a career high 87.4 LOB%. Batters from either side have a wOBA below .270 and hard hit rate below 30% since last season.
Shoemaker owns a 14.0% SwStr%, Astros strikeout at a 24.3% clip versus RHP
Matt Shoemaker has had quite a resurgence this season (3.55 SIERA, 19.5% K-BB%). Shoemaker has 6 quality starts in his last 7 games while striking out at least 6 in every start. The Astros have been such a boom-or-bust offense so the upside for Shoemaker is definitely there. However, the Astros have been scorching of late (157 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .256 ISO) making Shoemaker more of a tournament play. We can look to the usual suspects of Jose Altuve (159 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .221 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Correa (138 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .235 ISO vs RHP), and George Springer (119 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP) as our primary targets for exposure to the Astros offense. Perhaps even Luis Valbuena (111 wRC+, .338 wOBA, .178 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Castro (144 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .244 ISO vs RHP) can be considered to round out Houston tournament stacks.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Luis Valbuena, Jason Castro
Robbie Ray misses bats (25.6 K%), but gets hit hard (35.3 Hard%) and some RH Phillies bats have been hot
Robbie Ray does miss bats (25.6 K%), but his 28.3 K% over the last month doesn’t fit his 9.5 SwStr% that’s merely average, perhaps making him a bit over-priced for $9.3K on DraftKings, though still usable for $7.8K on FanDuel against the worst offense in baseball vs LHP (59 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB%). However, he has allowed hard contact 35.3% of the time in a park greatly favoring offense making a few hot Phillies bats viable here. Peter Bourjos (99 wRC+ vs LHP this season) has a 235 wRC+ over the last week and bats 2nd. Maikel Franco (98 wRC+, .230 ISO vs LHP career) and Cameron Rupp (136 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since last season) each have a wRC+ above 190 with a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. Tommy Joseph isn’t as hot (83 wRC+ last seven days), but has a 184 wRC+ and .267 ISO vs LHP for just $3K.
Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp, Peter Bourjos, Robbie Ray Daniel Mengden has struck out 21 of 78 batters in three starts, but Giants strike out just 15.1% vs RHP
Daniel Mengden has impressively struck out 21 of 78 batters through three starts with a 19.2 K-BB%. He finished last year at high A ball after coming over from the Astros and pitched just four games at AA before being promoted to AAA for another seven and then right to the big leagues. While he’s struck out batters at an above average rate in the minors at every stop, the 2014 fourth round pick was not a highly touted prospect in Fangraphs pre-season list (14th). He would appear to have some upside in a great park, but a good Giants offense has just a 16.1 K% vs RHP and LHBs have a .398 wOBA (45 Hard%) through just 30 plate appearances. This is not often park where we look for offense, but Brandon Belt (145 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) seems to handle it well (150 wRC+ at home since last year) and remains playable for less than $4.5K.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Belt Blue Jays implied run total has decreased to 5.86 runs, opened at 6.8 runs
The Blue Jays still have the highest implied total on tonight’s slate but it definitely raises a red flag to see their total drop nearly a full run. While it’s never optimal to roster a pitcher at Coors Field, the warning signs are definitely present for the Blue Jays offense to under perform tonight. Jon Gray has pitched great this season (3.58 SIERA, 25.9% K%) and has an even more impressive 52.4% GB% to go along with a 24.1% Hard% at home. Strikeouts, ground balls, and soft-contact seems to a perfect recipe for a pitcher to be successful at Coors. With that said, if there’s any offense that can light up Gray, it’s the Blue Jays. Josh Donaldson (155 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHP) and Michael Saunders (151 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .276 ISO vs RHP) are the primary Toronto bats to target, although you can always do worse than taking a shot on any hitter at Coors Field. We can also look to Edwin Encarnacion (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .262 ISO vs RHP) and Ezequiel Carrera (123 wRC+, .358 wOBA) as more than viable options.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Michael Saunders, Edwin Encarnacion, Ezequiel Carrera, Jon Gray Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated
There are several games with a decent chance of rain tonight, but Kevin is mostly concerned with Texas New York, although he's concerned about a chance of a lengthy delay in Cleveland Atlanta as well if things break the wrong way. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page, linked below, and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Collin McHugh has struck out 12 of last 55 batters and has a 10.9 SwStr% on the season
Collin McHugh has allowed three ERs over his last 13.1 innings, striking out 12 of 55 Angels and Cardinals. A high BABIP all season has not been supported by normal batted ball and contact rates, as it has in fact dropped to .279 over the last month while his SwStr has increased to 10.9% on the season making him a more formidable pitcher. The Angels don’t strike out (15.8% vs RHP), but aren’t very potent either (9.4 HR/FB vs RHP). McHugh may not have the greatest upside, but is a reasonable mound choice for about $7K on either site tonight in a pitcher’s park. Mike Trout (169 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015) one bat worth considering tonight, though he costs at least $4.3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout Duffy has a 15.9% SwStr% this season, higher than Noah Syndergaard
The Cardinals have been a surprisingly mediocre offense against LHP this season (94 wRC+, .311 wOBA, .155 ISO) given how righty-heavy their lineup is typically. The Cardinals are even striking out at an above average clip versus LHP this season (21.2% K%). This makes Danny Duffy an intriguing SP option tonight as he takes the mound in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. The only real struggle Duffy has had this season is giving up the long ball (14.9% HR/FB, 46.5% FB%). However, his fly balls become less of a concern when pitching at home due to the vast outfield and great defense behind him. Duffy has dominated lefties thus far this season eliminating the Cardinals lefties as viable options outside of maybe Matt Carpenter (143 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .220 ISO vs LHP). Stephen Piscotty (221 wRC+, .497 wOBA, .292 ISO vs LHP) makes for an elite play if deciding to forego rostering Duffy tonight. At a shallow SS position, Aledmys Diaz could worth a shot in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz Adames bats 2nd with Story and LeMahieu OUT vs Estrada
Marco Estrada has a .183 BABIP and 80.7 LOB% leading to a 2.70 ERA nearly two runs below his estimators. It seems we’ve been calling for regression since the start of the season, but he has allowed three runs in six innings in two of his last three starts with five HRs over his last four. A 10.1 BB% and 33.7 Hard% with a 0.71 GB/FB is a good way to find trouble in Colorado. The Rockies have tonight’s 2nd highest run projection (5.69) with Arenado (130 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Blackmon (114 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP since 2015) looking like overall bats at their usual expensive price tags at home. All have a wRC+ above 140 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week though. The value play here is a min-priced (or close to it) Cristhian Adames batting 2nd. He doesn’t carry a strong bat (62 wRC+, .074 ISO vs RHP career), but gains a ton of value from the situation and plays a difficult position (SS).
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Cristhian Adames, Marco Estrada