DFS Alerts
A's have an 85 wRC+ vs RHP, but also just an 18.0 K%, Samardzija has four or less Ks each of last five starts
Oakland has just an 85 wRC+ vs RHP, but also just an 18.0 K%. Jeff Samardzija has not struck out more than four in any of his last five starts with an ERA and estimators well above four and a half over that span. Players paying over $8K for him here are likely reliant on batted ball outcomes tonight, which can be dangerous for a pitcher without any particular skills at inducing weak contact (29.6 Hard%) even if Oakland has the 2nd lowest run projection tonight (3.27). It is one of the toughest offensive environments in baseball though, so there’s really not much interest on either side in this one.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds
Alex Gordon bats 2nd (Escobar 8th) against Wainwright
Adam Wainwright is back to pitching reasonably well, but has walked three in each of his last two starts, striking out just 10 of 51 batters. Over the last month he has a hard hit rate of 34.9% despite the 2.94 ERA. He also has a small reverse platoon split with LHBs holding just a .298 wOBA against him since last season. The one thing that needs to be mentioned is Alex Gordon (111 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) representing an actual major league hitter in the two spot for Kansas City finally, as Alcides Escobar drops to 8th. In a big park (similar to St Louis), this looks like a matchup that might be avoided.
Other tagged players: Adam Wainwright Davis bats leadoff vs RH Gant (22.1 K% in three starts) as Santana sits in NL park
Jon Gant had a 6.4 K-BB% at AA when the Mets traded him to the Braves one year ago. He proceeded to strike out 27% of batters for his new team at AA and AAA before being called up this year, where he has continued to miss bats at an above average rate (22.1 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) through three major league starts. Cleveland is not a bad offense, but they struggle on the road (83 wRC+, 15.3 K-BB%) and lose their DH in a tough NL park tonight. They’ve elected to sit Carlos Santana and bat Rajai Davis (97 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) leadoff, giving Gant a small further bump. Gant has some upside for just $6K on either site. LHBs do have a .359 wOBA against him in just 70 PAs, so Kipnis (141 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains in play, though Lindor (122 wRC+ vs RHP career) might be too expensive. One name that players should start looking out for is Tyler Naquin (157 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP) as he climbs up the batting order. He’s moved up to 7th tonight for just $3.4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Rajai Davis, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin Ross has a 4.8% K-BB% versus LHB
Joe Ross has extreme platoon splits, 4.8% K-BB%, 5.10 xFIP, .349 wOBA vs LHB compared to 20.9% K-BB%, 3.09 xFIP, .234 wOBA. This is enough for us to completely fade any Mets right handed hitters in this matchup outside of maybe Yoenis Cespedes (130 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) as a contrarian tournament play. If the Mets lineup was at full health, this would be a prime spot to target them as a full tournament stack in hope Ross continues his struggles against lefties. The only other real hitter options in this watered-down Mets lineup are Curtis Granderson (114 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .232 ISO vs RHP) and Brandon Nimmo due to his minimum salary on both sites. Nimmo has actually exhibited decent plate discipline in AAA this season reflected in his 11.5% BB%. That plate discipline could set up well against Ross and his 10.8% BB% allowed to LHB this season. We could do a lot worse than Nimmo for $2K on this slate
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo, Yoenis Cespedes, Joe Ross
LHBs have a .372 wOBA against Nova since last season, he's allowed a HR in all nine starts this year
Ivan Nova has allowed a HR in all nine starts this year with at least four runs in five of his last six and lasted a total of nine innings over his last two starts. Batters from both sides have hit him well this season (six HRs each), but LHBs have a .372 wOBA against him since last season, making Texas bats some of the most coveted for daily fantasy purposes with that short RF porch in Yankee Stadium tonight. Shin-Soo Choo (139 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top overall bat for less than $4K on either site as he starts to heat up (166 wRC+, 47.4 Hard% over the last week). Prince Fielder (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is finally hitting better as well (197 wRC+ last seven days) and costs less than $3.5K. The Rangers are a strong stack from the left-side tonight with any of their LHBs usable in this park with Mazara, Odor, and Moreland all having an ISO above .180 against RHP since last season. Ian Desmond (124 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP this season) might be a RHB to look at batting 2nd with a 296 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Prince Fielder, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Mitch Moreland, Ivan Nova Alex Rodriguez sits again as Chi Chi Gonzalez returns to the major leagues
Alex Rodriguez sits against a 2nd straight RHP as a multitude of pitching injuries have forced the Rangers to recall Chi Chi Gonzalez, who had just an 8.6 K-BB% at AAA this year, walking more than he struck out in 67 major league innings last year. Walks were his main issue though, as he did not allow a particularly high rate of hard contact (28.4%) and batters from either side had a wOBA below .300 against him. Yankee bats projected for the 2nd highest run total outside of Coors (5.1) still look strong through the top four (Beltran, Gardner, McCann, Ellsbury), but all cost at least $4.7K on DraftKings and only McCann (103 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) comes in at below $3.4K on FanDuel. The top half of this lineup looks decent if you can afford it, but is not a lock (team 96 wRC+ at home and 85 wRC+ vs RHP this year) and will likely prevent players from paying up for pitching.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chi Chi Gonzalez Thor will reportedly NOT be monitored more than normal by Mets coaching staff
There was some concern coming in today about the elbow soreness Noah Syndergaard experienced in his previous start. However, according to the Mets, they will not watch Syndergaard with any more cautiousness than they normally do and are satisfied that his elbow is structurally sound. We should probably take that statement from the Mets with at least a small grain of salt, but we can also take it as a green light to roster Syndergaard as we normally would. The Nationals (92 wRC+, .311 wOBA, .163 ISO vs RHP) do have some big bats but present Syndergaard with an above average matchup. Daniel Murphy (173 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (139 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .238 ISO vs RHP) make for viable tournament options if you believe Syndergaard is indeed injured and may exit this game early. Otherwise, the Nationals offense is less than an ideal target,
As reported by: MLB.com Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a lot of hard contact (34.1%) in the air (0.69 GB/FB)
Eduardo Rodriguez has just a 6.8 K-BB% and has allowed a lot of hard contact (34.1%) in the air (0.69 GB/FB), leading to a 16.7 HR/FB (seven HRs) through four starts. The Rays strike out a lot (23.4% vs LHP), but are the top offense in baseball vs LHP (122 wRC+). The issue here would be that Rodriguez has shown a slight reverse platoon split during his time in the majors (.336 wOBA, 34.3 Hard% vs RHBs – .312 wOBA, 31.2 Hard% vs LHBs). Logan Forsythe is still a strong play here (169 wRC+, .300 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Evan Longoria is still a strong overall bat (153 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP since 2015), but is priced quite a bit higher. Beckham and Casali are more average overall bats, but each have an ISO above .225 vs LHP since last year. Beckham bats 2nd and is middle infield eligible, but while Casali bats near the bottom of the order he can serve as a low owned Catcher punt with some upside.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Curt Casali, Tim Beckham Blake Snell has a SwStr below 7% with a first strike rate below 45% in his last two starts
Blake Snell is a talented prospect, but has a SwStr below 7% in each of his three major league starts with a first strike rate below 45% in each of his last two starts. Though his contact allowed has been about average so far, he may not be entirely ready for a spot in the major leagues yet. David Ortiz has improved vs LHP this year (119 wRC+, .200 ISO) and my be the top bat tonight (as he usually is), but the Boston offense has cooled off a bit the last couple of weeks and still carry high price tags. Hanley Ramirez (170 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP this season) may be the hot bat here (140 wRC+, .47.4 Hard% last seven days) and also one of the more affordable for nearly $4K on either site. Bryce Brentz is a marginal minor league bat, but may have some value at the minimum cost. With the Red Sox projected for just 3.96 runs tonight, this might be a decent spot to consider fading high priced bats altogether though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Blake Snell, Bryce Brentz Trevor Bauer has gone seven innings in five straight starts with at least nine Ks in three of last four
Trevor Bauer has been pitching the best baseball of his major league career over the last month, striking out nine in three of his last four while walking just one in three of those four starts as well. He’s gone at least seven innings in five straight starts and has tonight’s top matchup against the Braves (72 wRC+ at home, 76 wRC+ vs RHP). He makes a fine play on FanDuel for just $8.9K, but DraftKings might be a tad too aggressive on him ($12.8K). He’s generating more ground balls (48.9%), but still 32.1% hard contact, which is a bit above average and the highest mark of his career. A non-believer could still target Freddie Freeman (142 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015), while it can also be mentioned that no other batters is above $3K on either site against a pitcher with an almost even .300 wOBA facing batters from both sides since last season.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Dan Straily has a 5.6 K-BB% over the last month and Cubs lead MLB with an 11.1 BB% vs RHP
Dan Straily has just a 5.6 K-BB% since striking out 11 Dodgers a month ago and has only exceeded five strikeouts one other time (and only by one). With a .235 BABIP and 10.6 BB% on the season, his 3.83 ERA may be due for a bit of regression. The Cubs have an 11.1 BB% against RHP that should give him trouble as they carry the top run projection outside of Colorado tonight (5.06). This lineup is costly, but entirely stackable in a power friendly park. A costly Anthony Rizzo (154 wRC+ .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat, though Straily has little platoon split (batters from either side have just below a .300 wOBA since last season). He’s allowed more hard contact to RHBs this year (33.3%), but has just a 2.1 K-BB% vs LHBs (19.6% vs RHBs). Ben Zobrist (120 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the leadoff spot, may be the top value play for $4.4K on DraftKings and $3.6K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Dan Straily Arrieta has gone just five innings in three of last six starts, but still a top pitcher tonight
Jake Arreita is one of tonight’s top two pitchers, but at $13.7K on DraftKings, it needs to be mentioned that he’s lasted just five innings in three of his last six starts and has walked four batters on five occasions with a 9.1 BB% on the season. Aside from a 27.7 K% (32.0% over the last month) he continues to dominate on contact (56.5 GB% with the lowest hard hit rate in baseball at 21.6%) that his ERA estimators a run and a half above his actual ERA might not give him credit for. He’s a very usable pitcher against an offense with a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Cincinnati bats are of no interest with the lowest run projection tonight (2.94), although Joey Votto (156 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just above the minimum on FanDuel and is down to $3.5K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joey Votto Pirates going for four game sweep of Dodgers in lone afternoon game
The Dodgers struggles continued last night when even Clayton Kershaw couldn’t get them out of their slump. Today Scott Kazmir will try and reverse their fortune as they take on the Pirates and Francisco Liriano in what Vegas sees as a fairly even game with the Pirates slight (-108) favorites. It’s a game with a modest run total of 8.5 with two lefties that have upside but struggle more often than not this season. Yasmani Grandal, Corey Seager, and Adrian Gonzalez all have the day off for the Dodgers while Gregory Polanco and his sore hamstring sit for the Pirates. Enrique Hernandez leads off for the Dodgers and has a .345 wOBA and .266 ISO against LHP but most of that is a result of a hot start – he’s been terrible of late, even against southpaws. Scott Van Slyke is the only Dodger with a wOBA topping .330 and he’s definitely in play as a habitual lefty smasher. Because of the Dodgers struggles, Liriano is worth a look if you are playing any of the all day contests. The big names for the Pirates, McCutchen (.293 wOBA) and Marte (.257 wOBA) have struggled against southpaws so look to Pirates bats that have fared well like Jordy Mercer (.423 wOBA, .222 ISO, leading off), David Freese (.445 wOBA, .225 ISO, batting second), Jung-Ho Kang (.360 wOBA, .325 ISO, batting fourth), and Sean Rodriguez (.411 wOBA, .195 ISO, batting seventh) if you’re looking to use anyone from that side.
As reported by: J.P. Hoornstra on Twitter Other tagged players: Jordy Mercer, David Freese
Vegas likes James Paxton even though his recent numbers are less than impressive
James Paxton has been average over his last few starts, striking out only 16% of batters and posting an xFIP of 4.34. Paxton has not shown significant splits in regards to his strikeout upside, striking out LHBs and RHBs at about the same 25% rate. He faces the Cardinals at home today, a team that has a wRC+ of 89 versus LHP, with a k% of 21%. Perhaps Vegas is putting more stock in the opponent than the pitcher to arrive at the projected run total allowed of 3.91 for Mariners pitching today. Starting Paxton on one pitcher sites may still be a feat reserved for the most contrarian DFS player.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Jake Lamb gets to cleanup at Coors Field today
Jake Lamb is facing an average pitcher, Chad Bettis, and will be batting 4th for the Diamondbacks. While Lamb may appear to be in a great situation at first glance, Bettis has not given up much power to LHBs and his success is supported by his 26.5% fly ball percentage. Bettis also possesses a respectable 20% strikeout percentage against LHBs, pointing to the fact that Lamb’s matchup may only be an average one. Still, it is Coors Field, and Lamb does have an ISO of 0.500 over the last week.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Chad Bettis