DFS Alerts

Hosmer owns Salazar (101.5 mph aEV since 2015), but he should find success in rest of depleted KC lineup

This should be all about Danny Salazar feasting on a depleted Royals lineup, but they have a 147 wRC+ and 15.1 K% over the last week, behind Eric Hosmer’s (152 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) smoking hot bat (294 wRC+, .458 ISO last seven days). He’s had a little bit of success against Salazar too with a 101.5 mph aEV on seven batted balls since Statcast began tracking last season. He’s homered twice with six extra base hits in 24 career PAs. We still have to expect Salazar to find success against this lineup. His 29.2 K% is 6th best in baseball with only an 11.3 BB% that may be prohibiting him from consistently getting deeper in games (avg 6 IP per start) holding him back from being talked about among the elite this year. The Royals like to swing the bat though and could do him some favors with a 6.1 BB% against RHP this season. He dominated this team with nine strikeouts, a season low one walk and season high 7.2 innings almost exactly one month ago, though there were some different names in that lineup. We have to look at Salazar for $9.5K as a decent play on FanDuel and an even stronger one for nearly $1K less ($8.6K) on DraftKings.

Slumping Conforto dropped to 5th, Walker cleans up in Miami

Tom Koehler has walked exactly five batters in each of his last four starts, but did not allow a single HR in any of those starts, keeping his ERA low. He has allowed a .343 wOBA and 33.7 Hard% to LHBs since last season. It’s unfortunate that a slumping Michael Conforto (-45 wRC+ last seven days) loses some value in the 5th spot. He still has 150 wRC+ and .275 ISO vs RHP in his career. Yoenis Cespedes (142 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP since last season) is slumping as well (-61 wRC+ last seven days), but is still the big bat here (Koehler .307 wOBA, 30.4 Hard% vs RHBs since 2015). Neil Walker (117 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the only real hot bat in the lineup (253 wRC+ last seven days), now in the cleanup spot.

Zimmermann, Ramos OUT, Turner bats 2nd for Nats against lefty Finnegan

The Nationals didn’t need to shuffle their lineup vs LHP, as they have a 122 wRC+ and 15.9 HR/FB against them this season, nearly matching Brandon Finnegan’s career 15.7 HR/FB up to this point. Add a power friendly park to a pitcher with a 30+ Hard% allowed to batters from either side and you have a potentially strong stacking situation here. That still exists, though it’s odd to see Ben Revere (94 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) remain atop the lineup vs a LHP. Harper (158 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP since 2015) handles lefties well, while Murphy (97 wRC+, .112 ISO vs LHP since 2015) takes a step back. Trea Turner makes his season debut in the two hole for $3.2K on DraftKings. Jayson Werth bats 5th today, but may be the key bat here (192 wRC+, .350 ISO vs LHP this season). He has a 56.3 Hard% over the last week. This is a fairly strong stack from the 2nd through 7th spots.

Reds have three lesser known RH bats who hit LHP well (120+ wRC+, .200+ ISO since 2015)

Gio Gonzalez has allowed five HRs over his last three starts. He now has allowed seven on the season after allowing just eight last year and 10 the year before. He has not allowed more than 17 in a single season, but his 34.3 Hard% marks the highest rate of his career. The Reds do have a 16.5 HR/FB at home and 15.6 HR/FB vs LHP, but a 25.8 HR/FB is bloated by a trip to Coors, which they are now just coming home from. We can probably expect them to revert to their normally terrible offense coming off a Colorado high and don’t mind Gio for just less than $9K in what should be a good spot for him, but that’s about the best endorsement he can be given considering recent work. There are a few lesser known Cincinnati bats that do catch the eye for just below $4K on DraftKings tonight and even less on FanDuel if you believe they can continue their hot hitting. Leadoff man Zack Cozart (133 wRC+, .230 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has made himself part of the daily fantasy equation at SS on most days now. Adam Duvall (132 wRC+, .273 ISO vs LHP this season) is now hitting righties and lefties alike really well. Eugenio Suarez (130 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may also be an underrated bat at 3B.

Dietrich returns to leadoff spot, Stanton dropped to 5th against Syndergaard

Mattingly does daily fantasy players a real favor here today by reinserting one of his best LH hitters into the leadoff spot again today, only to face Noah Syndergaard. If he can keep the ball in front of batters tonight, this is tonight’s unquestioned top pitcher and one players should be building cash lineups around. He has not allowed a run or walk in 17.1 innings, striking out 26 of 64 batters. He is 3rd in the majors in K%, 2nd in K-BB%, 4th in SwStr%, and none of the pitchers ahead of him in any of those stats can come close to his 57 GB% (9th) along with a 3.2 Hard-Soft%. At the $3K mark, Derek Dietrich (141 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might appear to still have some value here, but may not have enough upside in to bother in a lineup projected to score just three runs.

David Wright placed on disabled list (15 day)

David Wright has been placed on the 15 day DL for a herniated disk in his neck according to the Mets. The injury will require 6-8 weeks of rest from baseball activities during which he will undergo appropriate physiotherapy. Matt Reynolds has been called up to take his place on the roster.

Cubs take on Diamondbacks in lone Friday afternoon game

As usual, the lone Friday afternoon game is at Wrigley as the Diamondbacks visit the Cubs. Archie Bradley will face John Lackey in a game that the Cubs should easily win. Bradley has been unimpressive since making his major league debut in 2015, allowing a wOBA of >.310 to both sides of the plate including a .367 wOBA to RH bats. The top five of the Cubs lineup (Fowler-Heyward-Bryant-Rizzo-Zobrist) are all great options with Bryant and Rizzo the obvious top choices. Lackey has been excellent this season as he enters today with a 3.49 SIERA and a 25.6% K rate. Over the last two seasons he’s been much better against RH bats then LH bats and the Dbacks only have two lefties (one of whom is Michael Bourn) in their lineup. It’s a good match up for Lackey and he’s an excellent SP option if you’re playing the all day slate.

Wade Miley has struggled against right-handed bats but plays in pitcher-friendly Petco Park

Miley has struck out 6 batters in three out of his last four games but is still allowing a .351 wOBA to RHB this season. The Padres have the 3rd worst run projection on the slate (3.49) and play in the last game of the night. Matt Kemp (.420 wOBA, 170 wRC+ L7) has been playing well and has seen his salary spike accordingly on DK. Kemp has a .362 wOBA, .253 ISO vs. LHP and should get on base to allow the even hotter Yangervis Solarte to drive him in. Solarte (.539 wOBA, 251 wRC+ L7) is only $3.1K on DraftKings and has multiple position eligibility, allowing for maximum roster flexibility. With such a low run projection, it’s tough to recommend Solarte and Kemp for cash games but they do deserve some tournament consideration.

Butler has allowed LHBs a .417 wOBA, 32.8 Hard%, 20.3 HR/FB in his career

While the Reds are facing a low strikeout pitcher in a great park, they are tied for 2nd in run projection tonight (5.1), well behind the team they are facing. Many of the bats in this lineup are still playable and even building blocks of a strong lineup tonight, though it might not be what you’d expect from a visiting team at Coors. Butler has kept RHBs on the ground 51.9% of the time in his career with a 10.4 HR/FB, but also a .340 wOBA, so a guy like Adam Duvall, who has thrashed RHP (126 wRC+, .331 ISO since 2015) is still playable. Zack Cozart (101 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top value SS out of the leadoff position for just $4.2K on DK. Butler has allowed lefties a .417 wOBA, 32.8 Hard%, and 20.3 HR/FB since last season. Joey Votto (111 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP this season) has retained his power even if his overall offense has been a bit less this year. He and Bruce (127 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP this season) are top bats at their positions tonight.

There is only one spot worth mentioning in the late update tonight and while Kevin believes it should play through before potential weather impact, a Red Sox/O’s affair with Ubaldo on the mound could drag on a while. Read his full forecast on our Weather Page linked below.

Seth Smith has a 328 wRC+, 72.7 Hard% over the last week

Petco is the only real negative run environment play tonight, but the Padres play host to the hottest bats in the major (157 wRC+ last seven days). Colin Rea has just a 6.3 K-BB% with a 4.47 ERA and estimators even a bit higher. The middle of this order is just punishing RHPs (122 team wRC+ vs RHP is 2nd in the majors this year) and though Rea has only allowed a .299 wOBA to LHBs since last year, it comes with a 34.3 Hard%. RHBs have hit him at a .337 wOBA clip over the same period. Kyle Seager (184 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP this season) is a strong pivot off Coors at a slightly lower cost. Seth Smith (144 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 328 wRC+ and 74.7 Hard% over the last week. Robinson Cano (188 wRC+, .362 ISO vs RHP) is incredibly expensive, but likely worth it even in this difficult environment. Nelson Cruz (145 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP this season) hasn’t been as potent, but rounds out a powerful core.

Ian Kinsler out of the lineup today for the Tigers

Michael Pineda (6.92 ERA) has allowed a .391 wOBA to right-handed batters and allowed a .416 to left-handed batters this season. Cameron Maybin will be leading off with Kinsler out of the lineup. Maybin (.395 wOBA L14) struggles with a .086 ISO vs. RHP. Miguel Cabrera has been hot over the past couple weeks (.471 wOBA L14) and is still pretty affordable today with his salary set at $4.5K on DraftKings. Victor Martinez has also played well recently (.417 wOBA L14) and is a solid play on FanDuel with his catcher eligibility at a thin position on a short slate. The Tigers currently have a run projection of 4.28, which is 10th best today, and should limit their ownership levels in tournaments.

Rockies have 6.9 run projection tonight

Combine the best park with one of the worst pitchers in baseball and you get a nearly seven run projection virtually regardless of the offense. The easy answer is just to fit as many Rockies into the lineup as you can and it shouldn’t bee too hard with a lack of high priced pitching options tonight. Alfredo Simon has allowed a .383 wOBA to LHBs since last season, but also a .341 wOBA to RHBs. Carlos Gonzalez (144 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Nolan Arenado (129 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP since 2015), and Charlie Blackmon (110 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are bats you build around tonight. Story (105 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP) loses some value with a lineup drop and LeMahieu (94 wRC+, .114 ISO vs RHP since 2015) gains some. Every Rocky you can fit in the lineup has value tonight even at some of the highest costs on the board.

Hughes has allowed 39 HRs in his last 208 innings

The Rays will now be facing Phil Hughes instead of Kyle Gibson, but that may play into their favor as Hughes is more of a fly ball pitcher who has allowed a .340+ wOBA and 31+ Hard% to batters from both sides since last season. Minnesota isn’t very friendly to LH power, but Hughes has still allowed 8 HRs to LHBs at home since last season. Corey Dickerson (116 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP this season) bats 6th, but may still be the best LH bat in this lineup. Evan Longoria (109 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP this year) has shown more power against RHP in 2016 and is the most expensive batter in this lineup on FanDuel ($3.7K). Brad Miller (109 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP this season) is the most expensive bat on DraftKings ($4K), but there’s always value in a SS with a decent bat in the two hole. You can add Guyer, Souza, and Casali as Rays batters with an ISO between .175 and .205 vs RHP this season. The Rays aren’t even close to the top projected lineup tonight (4.38), but could do some damage to a low strikeout, fly ball prone pitcher tonight.

Giancarlo Stanton now in the lineup as the cleanup hitter; Cole Gillespie goes to the bench

Giancarlo Stanton was originally not in the lineup today but the Marlins will have him in batting cleanup. Justin Bour will move down to the 5th spot and Cole Gillespie will go to the bench. Stanton has been dealing with soreness in his side so there is some risk associated with playing him.