DFS Alerts

Cardinals shuffle lineup against surging Jonathan Gray

Jonathan Gray has allowed just four ERs over his last 20 innings covering three starts, striking out 24 of 74 batters. He has one of the highest upsides on the slate with a 30.5 K% on a 12.2 SwStr% at one of the lower price tags as pricing algorithms seem to have difficulty separating Colorado pitchers between home and road starts. The Cardinals have 2nd highest wRC+ vs RHP (125), which includes a 15.7 HR/FB, so it’s a bit of a surprise that they’ve moved a few pieces around the lineup today, specifically Aledmys Diaz (189 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP) jumping way up to 2nd, where he remains a strong value. The top four all have a 120 wRC+ or better vs RHP since last season, but they are facing a quality arm tonight and perhaps the best value on the slate at $8.5K on DraftKings and just $6.9K on FanDuel. It’s not a great spot for Gray, but anything outside of Coors represents an improvement.

Marte returns to bat 5th, Cervelli OUT against Braves

Mike Foltynewicz is coming off two strong starts (15 IP – 2 ER – 0 BB – 12 K – 54 BF), but has a 97.6 LOB% through three starts and just a 7.3 SwStr%. LHBs have absolutely crushed him for a .412 wOBA over his career, while RHBs haven’t fared poorly either (.342 wOBA). The Pirates bats always come highly priced in a difficult park though, so it’s not very easy to find a lot of value there often in a team that relies on discipline (9.2 BB%) for much of it’s offensive production. Gregory Polanco (117 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is red hot (252 wRC+ last week), but may be a stronger option for under $4K on FanDuel. John Jaso (125 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) may be one affordable LHB at the top of the lineup to target ($3.5K or less) along with Jung-Ho Kang (136 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP), who has a 166 wRC+ and 46.2 Hard% over the last week at a similar cost. Starling Marte (128 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) returns to bat 5th, decreasing his value at a high cost and putting Matt Joyce, who has been hitting well, back on the bench.

Domingo Santana scratched from today's lineup for Brewers

Santana has been scratched from today’s game with right shoulder soreness. Jonathan Villar moves into the leadoff spot with Hernan Perez batting sixth and Ramon Flores batting seventh. It’s a tough match up against the Cubs and Jason Hammel and these three can be avoided for DFS purposes.

Cubs huge favorites on the road against Milwaukee

As has often been the case this season, the Cubs enter today as a huge favorite (-174) despite being on the road. While Cubs SP Jason Hammel is in a hitter-friendly park, he’s still the clear cut top option of the four SP’s taking the mound in the early games, especially facing a Brewers lineup that is without Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy who are both getting the day off. The Brewers bring Junior Guerra who has high K upside (as evidenced by a 30%+ K rate in the minors the past several seasons) but this isn’t the spot to take a chance on him facing the high scoring Cubs. Anyone in the top five of the Cubs lineup (Fowler-Heyward-Bryant-Rizzo-Zobrist) are in play with Fowler and Rizzo your top choices out of that group. You’ll want to avoid Brewers bats today (especially with their best two bats out) as Hammel has only allowed one homer in over 40 innings of work this season so the upside you’re looking for in a tough match up is likely not going to come through.

Can Tyler Wilson continue his recent good run?

After a slow start to the season, Orioles SP Tyler Wilson has looked impressive of late and comes into today’s game with a wOBA allowed this season of .287 to LH bats and .265 to RH bats. He doesn’t have high K upside but if you’re playing the two game early slate he’s worth a look. His counterpart Nate Karns does have some upside but faces one of the tougher match ups in baseball facing the Orioles at their home park. The Mariners have loaded their lineups with lefties with Nelson Cruz being the only right handed hitter in the lineup. Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager both come in with >.400 wOBA’s vs RHP this season and are the top options from that side of the plate. Seth Smith and Cruz are secondary options and good adds if you’re looking to stack the Mariners. From the Orioles side – Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo all enter the game with > .400 wOBA’s vs RHP this season and are excellent choices to start your Orioles stacks with.

Eric Hosmer the only LHB starting for the Royals against David Price

Alex Gordon will be sitting against the strong left-handed pitching of David Price. Whit Merrifield, who was just called up today from Triple-A, will be replacing him and batting 9th. Eric Hosmer (.445 wOBA L14) is a risky option that has a .266 wOBA and 63 wRC+ against LHP at home in 2016. David Price should be considered a strong tournament play even though the Royals have an 18.9 K%, 5th lowest in the league. Price could see slightly lower ownership than usual due the fact his salary has him sandwhiched between Johnny Cueto and Francisco Liriano.

Giants in the game with the lowest projected runs (6.5)

The Giants are playing in a pitcher-friendly park against Drew Pomeranz, who has held batters from both sides of the plate to an under .300 wOBA since 2015. Pomeranz has a 32.6 K% at home this season but the Giants only strikeout 16.3% of the time, 2nd lowest in the league. Buster Posey has a .370 wOBA vs .LHP on the season but has a .216 wOBA in his last 14. The Giants currently have the 4th lowest projected run total (3.44) and their offense should be avoided.

Yankees have highest run projection of the night (4.8) in Arizona

Shelby Miller has struck out two or fewer in five of eight starts, allowing at least there runs in all five home starts. He has one more walk than strikeouts on the season and a .330 wOBA, 34.0 Hard% allowed to LHBs since last season. The top two (Ellsbury and Gardner) should probably be included in any stacks, but neither has done enough to merit a cost much above $4K other than their lineup spot and represent something close to average value at such cost. The middle three, all at $4K or below, is where the real power lies here. Carlos Beltran (122 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats 3rd tonight, Brian McCann (112 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP) appears to be tonight’s top Catcher eligible bat, while Mark Teixeira (131 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP) has fared well against righties, although better last year than this.

Expensive Boston bats playing in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium

It’ll be tough to stack the Red Sox tonight but their individual players could play well in the second game of the doubleheader. Hanley Ramirez (.349 wOBA, 117 wRC+ vs. RHP this season) returns after not playing in the early game. Ramirez is batting in the cleanup spot and is the cheapest player on DK at the top of the order for Boston. Dustin Pedroia is not in the lineup, Xander Bogaerts batting 2nd. David Ortiz (.461 wOBA, 196 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) is in play but is a risky option against Edinson Volquez, who plays significantly better at home this season. Volquez has not allowed a home run at Kauffman Stadium in 2016 and owns a 1.82 FIP at home compared to 7.28 FIP on the road. Volquez also has a 1.35 ERA and allowed a .228 wOBA at home this season.

Tonight’s weather update is that there is no weather to be concerned about aside from a small potential for delay in Baltimore. There is a birthday request from Kevin though, which you can see at our Weather Page linked below.

Adam Wainwright has allowed at least three runs in every start

Adam Wainwright has allowed at least three runs in every start with a high of five strikeouts (twice), but at least hasn’t walked more than one since his 2nd start and hasn’t allowed a HR in three home starts. The Rockies are a below average offense on the road (94 wRC+) and vs RHP (87 wRC+) and still retain some high pricing (Arenado and Story $4.5K) on their only quality bats both on the road and vs RHP. Carlos Gonzalez has a 143 wRC+ and .304 ISO vs RHP since 2015, but just a 101 wRC+ away from Coors. However, both he and Blackmon (105 wRC+ vs RHP) have a hard hit rate of at least 50% over the last week. While we want no part of Wainwright, high prices in a negative run environment that is very difficult on power gives players very little of value on the Colorado side either as they are projected for just 3.54 runs.

San Diego has a 71 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs RHP

The Padres are the worst offense in the majors vs RHP (71 wRC+, 25.2K%) in a very difficult scoring environment. Johnny Cueto has gone at least seven innings in seven of eight starts with a 2.97 ERA and 3.31 SIERA, though he’s struck out as few as three batters twice and as many as 11. While there are no San Diego bats that are of interest, it comes down to cost for Cueto. He looks fairly strong on FanDuel for $10.9K where the Win matters more, but for $11.9K on DraftKings, players need nearly 30 points for him to pay off. This seems like it would have a decent chance of happening with the Padres projected for the 2nd lowest run total of the night (3.06), but doesn’t feel like a slam dunk. The issue with a pitcher priced this high without an elite strikeout rate is an inability to make up for one bad inning sometimes. Cueto is one of tonight’s top pitchers in a great spot with his overall value beyond his price tag on DK more debatable.

Latos has a 2.4 K-BB% and has allowed at least four runs in three straight starts

Mat Latos has just a 2.4 K-BB% after walking five without a strikeout in his last start. He has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts and has allowed a wOBA of .340 to LHBs since last season. There isn’t a lot of great value in this lineup at some very high prices up top, but lefty Colby Rasmus (111 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats cleanup for under $4K. Colin Moran is a LHB making his major league debut for Houston, batting 6th for the minimum cost. He had just a 102 wRC+ at AAA this year.

David Wright returns to the Mets' lineup

Wright will be batting third against left-hander Gio Gonzalez. Wright is only viable for tournaments on FanDuel, as his salary has fallen to $2.8K. Still, he carries a ton of risk due to his current back issue. Gonzalez (.293 wOBA on the road this season) is a difficult matchup for the Mets in a pitcher-friendly park. The Mets currently have the 5th lowest run projection (3.47) and have the league’s highest strikeout rate, at 26.6% against LHP. Excluding the pitcher, five out of the eight bats the Mets have in the lineup are right-handed and Gonzalez has a 23.7 K% against RHB. Gonzalez is a strong option that offers a significant discount on FD, compared to the other high-end pitching choices available.

Lackey gets a further bump vs high strikeout Brewers (26.2 K% vs RHP) with Braun OUT

John Lackey has a career high 25.3 K% and 12.2 SwStr% and already looked strong against a Milwaukee team that strikes out 26.2% of the time vs RHP, but gets a bump with Ryan Braun out of the lineup tonight. His 22.7 Hard-Soft% is a career worst and may be reason for concern in a difficult run environment where the home team has a 16.9 HR/FB this year (17.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but the absence of Braun leaves Chris Carter as their top power threat (113 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He has just a 65 wRC+, but 58.3 Hard% over the last week. This entire Milwaukee team has a 30.2 K% over the last week. Lackey looks out out of place for more than $10K on DraftKings, but his high strikeout upside tonight validates that cost against a now weaker Milwaukee lineup.