DFS Alerts

Matt Carpenter OUT, Aldemys Diaz batting leadoff against LHP Adam Morgan

Adam Morgan may have his hands full with the Cardinals tonight, who rank sixth in the MLB against LHP. As a team, the Cardinals boast a 107 wRC+ and .339 wOBA against them this season and are projected by Vegas to score 4.21 runs this evening. Morgan posted a 13.9K% last year, but posted a 33K% in his first start of 2016. His minor league numbers do suggest that he possesses strikeout potential, but it may be wise to take a wait and see approach before rostering Morgan. Aldemys Diaz (.474 wOBA – .313 ISO – 196 wRC+) has been crushing the ball and will be making his first start in the leadoff spot, making him one of the top SS plays on the board tonight. Stephen Piscotty will be hitting second and owns a .586 wOBA and .368 ISO agasinst LHP in 24 AB’s this year. Also in consideration are Matt Holiday (.390 wOBA – .199 ISO – 139 wRC+ career against LHP) and Randal Grichuk (.348 wOBA – .329 ISO vs LHP in 2015), who make for very solid plays in tournaments tonight.

Aaron Sanchez struggles against LHB, will be facing four very capable ones tonight

While Sanchez does have filthy stuff, his L/R splits are quite alarming. He’s been dominate against RHB this year (1.77 FIP – 3.8BB% – 18Hard%) but has struggled mightily with LHB (4.90 FIP – 10.5BB% – 26Hard%). The Rangers lineup features four above average lefties that could present Sanchez with some issues tonight. Consider Sanchez no more than a GPP option. Nomar Mazara owns a .421 wOBA and 174 wRC+ against RHP this season through 49 AB’s and is a great play. Prince Fielder has struggled this season, but owns a career .400 wOBA and 149 wRC+ against RHP and is a viable GPP target. Mitch Moreland (.352 wOBA – .227 ISO – 124 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) and Rougned Odor (.331 wOBA – .214 ISO vs RHP in 2016) should also be your radar this evening.

Red-hot Rubby de la Rosa takes on the Marlins in Miami

Are de la Rosa’s last two starts just an anomaly or has he actually turned a corner? His strikeout rate has been very good (27.5%, 12.0 SwStr%) and he’s generating more ground balls, but both of his past two starts have come against teams that boast stronger bats from the right side. He’s historically struggled with left-handed bats to a much larger degree, and while Miami isn’t a terribly scary offense against RHs, they do have a few bats that could give de la Rosa some trouble (most notably Christian Yelich and Derek Dietrich). Justin Bour is out of the lineup which is a plus for DLR, but he should still be considered a GPP-only play. His shot at the win is relatively low given the pitcher on the other side (Jose Fernandez, who is a -180 favorite as of this writing). If you are targeting any of the Miami bats, Yelich (.405 wOBA, .186 ISO, 150 wRC+) is the top overall option with Dietrich (.495 wOBA, .351 ISO through 37 ABs this year) being playable in any format, especially on sites that still have him priced towards the minimum. He’ll hit fifth tonight with J.T. Realmuto staying put in the leadoff spot.

Anibal Sanchez owns a 14.2 BB% through 5 starts in 2016

Sanchez hasn’t pitched very well this season, as he owns a SIERA of 4.66 and a 14.2BB%. The Indians are projected by Vegas to score 4.37 runs are heavy favorites for tonight’s game. While the price is affordable ($6.7K on DK), Sanchez shouldn’t be in consideration for your rosters. The Cleveland bats though, should be on your radar. Carlos Santana (.341 wOBA – .212 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Kipnis (.386 wOBA) have been hitting RHP well this season and are very solid plays this evening. While he has been off to slow start since returning from injury, Michael Brantley posted a .386 wOBA and a 148 wRC+ agasinst RHP in 2015 and is a viable GPP option this evening.

Detroit features second lowest Vegas projected run total (3.13) tonight against Kluber

In a game that will most likely feature some rain, Corey Kluber will be facing the Detroit Tigers in his home ballpark. Kluber has pitched well this season, posting a 26.1K% and an SIERA of just 2.93. The Tigers are projected to score just 3.13 runs tonight, making Kluber an attractive target. Detroit ranks sixth in the MLB with a 24.7K% against RHP, but collectively hold a wOBA of .333 against them. Both Victor Martinez (.601 wOBA – 312 wRC+ in last 26 PA) and Nick Castellanos (.570 wOBA – 289 wRC+ in last 25 PA) have been hot over the past 7 days, and are worthy tournament options this evening. Otherwise, it would be wise to consider rostering hitters from other games.

Tyler Chatwood sneaky GPP play today

Rockies SP Tyler Chatwood has been average this season but has a great match up in Petco against a Padres team that can not hit RHP. They are worst in the league in wOBA vs RHP and are 24th in ISO vs RHP. They also have the third highest K rate this season. All this adds up to Chatwood being a definite option in GPP’s today. Cesar Vargas is a cheap option for the Padres but has a much tougher match up facing a hot hitting (even away from Coors) Rockies team. The top four in the order for the Rockies are viable options today, especially LH bats Blackmon and Gonzalez. While we like Chatwood today, he’s definitely not a lock for a great game so there is also merit to looking at Padres at the top of the order, with a cheaply priced cleanup hitter Brett Wallace (.373 wOBA, .207 ISO vs RHP) the top target.

Is Felix still the King? Probably not...

Felix Hernandez looks like a shell of his former self this season despite owning a 1.38 ERA. A closer look reveals a 4.17 xFIP and a 4.52 SIERA along with a career high 13.3% walk rate. His BABIP is only .198 and he has a LOB% of 88.1 meaning he’s due for some regression if he continues to pitch as he has been in 2016. It’s still hard to roster batters facing him, however, but a A’s stack could make for a nice contrarian play. Stephen Vogt at the always weak catcher position is intriguing as are his team mates Khris Davis (who has been mashing of late) and Josh Reddick. Highly heralded prospect Sean Manaea struggled in his first big league start and will look to bounce back today. Manaea has high upside (had a K/9 rate of >10 at every stop in the minor leagues) but is probably best avoided until we see him pitch a few more times. Nelson Cruz loves LHP (.454 wOBA, .325 ISO) and is one of the top batting options of the day. Franklin Gutierrez, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are also worth a look.

Strasburg has tough match up against pesky Royals today

Nationals ace SP, Stephen Strasburg has gone at least 7 innings and struck out at least 7 each of his last four starts but has a tough match up against the Royals – a team most refuse to target when it comes to using a SP. That said, Strasburg makes for an excellent GPP option because of this as he’ll likely be the lowest owned he’ll be all season long. The Royals don’t strike out much but Strasburg has the stuff to change that and Kauffman stadium is pitcher-friendly. Kris Medlen takes the mound for the Royals – he’s an adequate but not great SP that is somewhat vulnerable to LH bats (.323 wOBA allowed past two seasons). Bryce Harper hasn’t hit a HR since April 24th but he’s always a threat against a RHP and his price has come down to the point where you can afford him. Daniel Murphy is another Nationals bat to look to – he has a hit in five straight including a HR in his last game. While the likes of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer hit RHP well, Royals bats are probably best avoided in all but the most contrarian of lineups today facing Strasburg.

RotoGrinders.com Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has posted his daily MLB weather forecast and it’s an ugly one as there is lots of rain in the picture with several games having the potential for delays and/or postponement. The big concern is the Braves-Mets game as delays could impact Steven Matz’s start but Roth believes the game will start off ok but with the potential for later trouble (classified YELLOW/ORANGE). SF@CIN and DET@CLE are also both classified the same so keep an eye on those two throughout the course of the day. Other potential (YELLOW) trouble spots include CHC@PIT and NYY@BAL. Make sure to check out the full forecast in the RG forums and follow along as Roth updates it periodically when more information becomes available.

Angels-Brewers game has highest run total of early slate

With an expected run total of nine, Vegas expects the Angels and Brewers to score some runs. Angels pitcher Hector Santiago has pitched well this season but faces a Brewers line up that has been hitting the ball well lately and is loaded with RH bats. Santiago has a .325 career wOBA allowed to RH bats (.323 in 2015) including a 1.54 HR/9 and 51.9% flyball rate. Not good news when pitching at Miller Park. Zach Davies is the Brewers SP and while we don’t have much data to work with, what we do have tells us that he’s not very good, especially when pitching at home (.403 wOBA). This is a game you will want to target hitters from both sides – for the Angels Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are the obvious players to look to but anyone in the top five of the lineup (including the light hitting but speedy Ortega batting second) is a viable option. For the Brewers, Domingo Santana was a late scratch which moved Jonathan Villar to the lead off spot – Villar himself is a great option batting at the top of the order. Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, and Chris Carter occupy the three through five slots of the batting order and are players to look at if you’re targeting Brewers bats. Alex Presley (batting second) and Aaron Hill (batting sixth) are risky but cheap options if you want exposure to this game.

Domingo Santana scratched from starting lineup for MIL

The Brewers have made a change in their lineup as Santana will miss the game with shoulder tightness. Ramon Flores will take his spot in the field and bat 8th with Jonathan Villar moving into Santana’s lead off role. More analysis on this game coming up shortly.

Matz top pitching option in early slate

Steven Matz is a left-handed pitcher. The Atlanta Braves are really, really bad against LHP. How bad? They are dead last in wOBA and ISO over the last two seasons. Vegas noticed this as well giving Braves the lowest (2.82) run total by far and making the Mets huge (-205) favorites. Matz is the top pitching option for cash games and while he might be highly owned in GPP’s, he’s also a viable option there as his price tag allows you roster flexibility. Jhoulys Chacin takes the mound for the Braves and enters with a .334 career wOBA allowed to LH bats. The top six of their batting order (Granderson, Cabrera, Conforto, Cespedes, Duda, Walker) are all options today with Michael Conforto probably the best of the group. Yoenis Cespedes could make for a great GPP target as most players will be targeting the Mets left-handed bats. Cespedes is no slouch against RHP with a .386 wOBA and .273 ISO.

Hitting should rule the day in Cincy

Jake Peavy takes on Dan Straily today in Cincy with a game having a 8.5 run total. Neither pitcher has shown the ability to get hitters out on a consistent basis – Peavy has been downright terrible this year and Straily has the misfortune of facing a tough Giants lineup (even sans Buster Posey who gets the day off after a night game). Anyone in the top five of the Giants lineup is in play with Denard Span, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford the best of that group. All four of those hitters have .340 wOBA’s or better vs RHP with the latter three all having .190 ISO’s or better. Joey Votto has struggled of late but this is a prime spot for him to bounce back facing Peavy. He is the top option from the Reds today and feel free to pair him up with the likes of Zack Cozart who leads off and Jay Bruce (.235 ISO against RHP). You’ll obviously want to avoid both pitchers in this match up.

Jon Lester thrives on the road

Over his career, and even more noticeably over the last two seasons, Jon Lester has performed much better when he has pitched on the road. Last season he allowed a .191 wOBA to LH bats on the road (opposed to .286 for the season) and a .278 wOBA to RH bats in away games (opposed to .290 for the season). His early results this season follow along with that (sub .210 wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate on the road) and today he visits Pittsburgh as a moderate -143 favorite. With options like Matz and Strasburg available today, Lester is a great pivot in both cash and GPP’s in the early slate even facing a Pirates team loaded with RH bats. Juan Nicasio has been great in his home starts this season (dominant against RH bats with a .101 wOBA allowed) but has been vulnerable to LH hitting over the course of his career (.361 wOBA including .412 in 2015). This spells trouble for him with a Cubs lineup that mashes RH pitching. Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo are hot and are top plays at their respective positions and Tommy La Stella could be a sneaky play batting second in this lineup. From the Pirates side of things, Jordy Mercer hits lefties well, is fairly cheap and leading off. He’s really the only bat we’re targeting from that side today.

Cashner's SwStr has been below 4% in each of his last three starts

Andrew Cashner has had a history of pitching well at home prior to this year, but he’s been a bit of mess lately with a career high 9.4 BB%. His SwStr hasn’t exceeded 4% in three straight starts. We usually look for reasons to use pitchers against the Rockies on the road, but there are none to be found here. Due to their struggles on the road, just Arenado (118 wRC+ on the road, 131 vs RHP since 2015) and Story (133 wRC+ on the road, 94 wRC+ vs RHP) as the only two priced above $4K and Carlos Gonzalez (109 wRC+ vs on the road, 150 wRC+ vs RHP) as the potential bargain here against a pitcher who has struggled against LHBs (.366 wOBA since last season), though RHBs have hit him harder so far this year (.451 wOBA vs .244). Cargo does have just a 64 wRC+ with an 18.8 Hard% over the last week however.