DFS Alerts

The Best Leverage May Involved High Priced Pitching on One Site

On a 12 game slate with reasonably priced pitching and the Astros (4.7 implied runs) and Yankees (4.4) clearly atop the board tonight, it’s no surprise that both teams project for 20% stacking ownership on DraftKings currently with the latter the only team cracking 15% on FanDuel. Simulations also prefer the Yankees to “smash” the slate most often too, a bit below 20% of the time. Again, the Astros are the only other team coming through in more than 10% of simulations. Cheap Baltimore bats are the overwhelming top value stack on DraftKings with a Value% above 30%. The gaps are a lot smaller on FanDuel with Arizona bats leading the way at 18.2%. Not a batter in their already confirmed lineup exceeds $2.5K, but they have a very tough matchup against Pablo Lopez in Miami. It’s possible that the best leveraging scenario on FanDuel revolves around high priced pitching, while DraftKings players may find an advantage with a young lineup facing a struggling pitcher in one of the more power friendly parks in play tonight. For additional notes on some of the top leverage spots on the board tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

One Team Dominates Top Value Projections For Hitters

Viable pitching is abundant enough at reasonable prices, despite the short slate, that players may not need to roster a lot of cheap bats, but it’s always nice to find value on the board. On DraftKings, PlateIQ projections seem to believe there is a clear answer for value bats tonight and that’s the home team in Baltimore. Chris Paddack has made three solid starts for the Twins, striking out 13 of 60 batters with just a single walk and 51.2% of his contact on the ground in addition to an 87.4 mph EV. He’s is one of those affordable viable arms in a park that may play more pitcher friendly with the walls moved back this year, but four of the top five projected point per dollar value bats on DraftKings are Orioles. This group includes Trey Mancini (79 wRC+, .126 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Ryan Mountcastle (106 wRC+, .202 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (94 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Austin Hays (97 wRC+, .183). All cost less than $3K on DraftKings. In fact, Cedric Mullins (142 wRC+, .249 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup above $3K on DK and it would be pretty ridiculous not to include him in Baltimore stacks. RHBs do own a .368 wOBA against Paddack since last season.

No team dominates top value projections on FanDuel tonight, but the Orioles (Mancini and Ramon Urias) are joined only by the Mariners with multiple batters inside the top 10 projected point per dollar values. Jesse Winker has struggled in his new uniform (87 wRC+ this year), feasted on RHP since last season (162 wRC+, .257 ISO) and may be the top value on FD for just $2.6K against Jake Odorizzi (LHBs .341 wOBA since last season). Luis Torrens (79 wRC+, .128 ISO) joins him as a top value catcher with a minimum price tag ($2K). Jarred Kelenic (86 wRC+, .218 ISO) is just outside the top 10.

Top Offense Has Struggled in Recent Meetings Against Barrel Prone Lefty

With just 12 teams on the board tonight, the Houston Astros (4.74) are the only offense that exceeds even four and a half implied runs. This may not be as troubling as it sounds when you consider that the league average is a mere 4.08 runs per team per game so far, although it does mean Houston bats will likely be very popular tonight. Marco Gonzales was forced to leave his last start after just three batters after taking one off the wrist, but he hasn’t missed any time. The 14.9 K-BB% has been solid, but he’s remained barrel prone (10.4%), an issue that popped up last year. Four of his five barrels and 23.5% of his fly balls have left the yard, numbers that should regress a bit as the season goes on. Ironically, even with that and a 48.8 LOB%, he has just a 3.86 ERA because more than half his runs have been unearned. RHBs own a .354 wOBA and LHBs a .354 xwOBA against him since last season. However, he has one start against Houston this year and one last year…both quality starts. That said, Houston does have three batters pop inside the top 10 projected hitter point totals tonight (PlateIQ). They are the returning Jose Altuve (117 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP since 2021), Alex Bregman (127 wRC+, .149 ISO) and Yordan Alvarez (134 wRC+, .227 ISO) in a lefty on lefty matchup.

With the exception of Byron Buxton and Jesse Winker, the rest of the top 10 are filled up with Yankees (4.4 runs – second best on the board) and Blue Jays (4.1 – fourth). As luck would have it, these two teams are facing each other in Toronto, which is somewhat of a neutral run environment, with two quality pitchers on the mound. While Jordan Montgomery has just an 18.3 K% through four starts, his 12.6 SwStr% is well above league average. He’s walked just five with one of his two barrels (3.4%) leaving the yard. With a .224 BABIP and 4.5 HR/FB, estimators are well above a 2.70 ERA, but don’t expect it to fully regress as the strikeout rate should rise above league average. RHBs are about league average against him since last season (.304 wOBA, .319 xwOBA) and he’ll be facing a lot of them tonight. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (148 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP since LY) and George Springer (168 wRC+, .299 ISO) are top 10 projected bats on either site, while Bo Bichette (154 wRC+, .220 ISO) hovers right around the bottom of that list.

Ross Stripling has moved away from his four-seamer, which had resulted in more ground balls (52.2%) and fewer strikeouts until he punched out seven of 20 Bostonians with a 16.7 SwStr% last time out. He’s walked just one since moving into the rotation (three starts) with an 84.4 mph EV. A 3.60 ERA is actually a bit above estimators. The Toronto pen will likely factor in quite a bit here and they’ve been marginal overall with estimators in the mid-threes (the Yankee and Mariner pens has been great by the way). Like Gonzales, Stripling has struggled against RHBs by actual results (.341 wOBA since 2021), but also LHBs by expected results (.345 xwOBA). Aaron Judge (145 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since LY) and his 200 wRC+ in 2022 is the top projected batter on the slate, while Giancarlo Stanton (133 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (117 wRC+, .188 ISO) join him in the top 10. Anthony Rizzo (113 wRC+, .221 ISO) has been on fire as well (205 wRC+ this year).

No Shortage of Mid-Range Values on Small Slate

If you’re not liking the pricing at the top of the board tonight, Zac Gallen owns the fourth highest projected point total on either site (PlateIQ), but costs just $7.6K on DraftKings, where he currently owns a top two point per dollar value projection. Gallen has allowed just a single run over 14 innings, striking out exactly one-quarter of 56 batters faced with just four walks. While the 0.60 ERA is obviously unsustainable, he’s allowed just two barrels (5.4%) with an 86.5 mph EV so far. Gallen seems to be finally healthy and throwing a mile per hour harder than he ever has at the major league level. The Marlins have a 120 wRC+, but 23.5 K% vs RHP. For additional notes on mid-to-low priced pitching options on Monday night, including Drew Rasmussen and Chris Paddack, check out the Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Top Pitcher Who Could Provide Some Leverage Tonight

Both sites are starting about a half hour earlier than usual tonight in order to include six games instead of five on their main slates. We have three clear top of the board pitchers with Pablo Lopez the only pitcher cracking the $10K mark on both sites, Chris Bassitt costing that much only on FanDuel and then Max Fried the only other pitcher on the board above $9K on both sites. Lopez has a 17.6 K-BB% at home that’s two points higher than his road mark and a 9.8 HR/FB that’s 6.3 points lower than his road mark for his career. Overall this year, he allowed a single run in his first start and none since, striking out 23 of 85 batters with just four walks. He has allowed five barrels (8.6%), which have all stayed in the yard, but with just 29.3% of his contact at a 95 mph EV or above. Estimators are well above his 0.39 ERA, but none even come close to three (2.80 DRA). Early this afternoon, he carries the second highest point total projection (PlateIQ), but is expected to be only the third or fourth most popular pitcher. If these numbers hold true, and they are fluid throughout the day, Lopez would be a great GPP play at home against the Diamondbacks (81 wRC+, .26.4 K% vs RHP).

Outside of about a single inning to open his third start, Bassitt, as expected, has been a great addition to the Met staff. His 20.5 K-BB% would be a season high. While he’s allowed five barrels (8.6%), an 84.1 mph EV would be a career best too. Estimators are tightly packed between a 2.91 DRA and 3.26 xFIP, about a run above his ERA (.232 BABIP, 84.9 LOB%). He’s tonight’s top projected pitcher overall and currently expected to be the most popular against an Atlanta offense that has just a 99 wRC+ and 15.6 K-BB% vs RHP this season. He also pitches in a very pitcher friendly park and may get an additional weather boost with cool temperatures and a light wind blowing inward. Umpiring assignments are not yet available.

Max Fried will enjoy the same park conditions as Bassitt on the other side of this matchup. Through four starts, the numbers look about what they usually do. Fried strikes out a few more than average (22.3%) with lots of weak (84.3 mph EV) ground balls (55.1%). Just one of his four barrels (5.7%) has left the yard, but he’s also walked just one and that was in his first start. This has all estimators outside a 3.26 DRA below his 3.00 ERA. The Mets own a 105 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs LHP early on. Fried is third on the board in terms of total point projection, but is currently projected to be the second most popular pitcher on FD, third on DK. Fried is a fine pitcher, but he along with Bassitt are more of a higher floor type pitcher than high ceiling ones.

The start of Padres-Pirates will be delayed Sunday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Padres-Pirates will be delayed Sunday due to inclement weather

Matt Duffy (undisclosed) scratched Sunday

Matt Duffy (undisclosed) scratched Sunday

Bobby Witt Jr. scratched Sunday

Bobby Witt Jr. scratched Sunday

Wander Franco scratched Sunday

Wander Franco scratched Sunday

Jonathan India scratched Saturday

Jonathan India scratched Saturday

J.D. Martinez scratched Saturday

J.D. Martinez scratched Saturday

Byron Buxton (hand) scratched Saturday

Byron Buxton (hand) scratched Saturday

Michael Brantley (protocols) scratched Friday

Michael Brantley (protocols) scratched Friday

Noah Syndergaard (illness) scratched Friday; Jimmy Herget will open for the Angels in his place

Noah Syndergaard (illness) scratched Friday; Jimmy Herget will open for the Angels in his place

Leverage Against a Pitcher with a .342 wOBA vs RHBs?

Early stacking projections don’t suggest any team will see overwhelming ownership on a 13 game Friday night slate, though the Red Sox and Reds both currently (barely) reach double digits on DraftKings. It may be surprising to see the Reds so moderately projected in terms of ownership at Coors, especially when they’re so cheap, but this offense has been absolutely awful. Remember also, that these projections are fluid and change throughout the day. When early simulations were run, neither the Rockies, nor Reds (the only teams above five implied runs) projected to “smash” the slate much more than five percent of the time. Again, we find the Red Sox, but now with the Dodgers, atop the board, but neither with a Smash% reaching double digits. In terms of projected value, Cincinnati stacks overwhelm on DraftKings with a 28.6 Value% that’s nearly three times the next highest team. Milwaukee is just ahead of Detroit, both in double digits on FanDuel. The Tigers are in L.A. and facing a remodeled Tyler Anderson, who’s throwing more cutters. The early result has been an 18 K-BB% with a 54.5 GB% and 81.7 mph EV.

The meat of these stacking projections for GPP players are the Leverage ratios. They’re not going to come through every night or even most of the time, but when they do a large GPP win is on the table. There are currently two teams above a 5.0 Leverage ratio on either site and one of them is very interesting. Up top we have the Angels at 9.6. This has been a very successful offense early on (130 wRC+ vs RHP), but they’ll be facing Lucas Giolito with potential weather issues. It’s the rare night where we don’t find Shohei Ohtani (145 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (242 wRC+, .442 ISO) as top of the board projected bats. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .270 and .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Giolito since last season.

Yankee stacks (6.6 on DK, 5.5 on FD) are a surprise find here (and that could change later in the day). They currently own the top implied run line outside Coors (5.0), but expensive bats in Kansas City (a park downgrade in terms of power output, but not overall run environment) aren’t expected to be highly owned and only smashed the slate in 6.5% of simulations upon early runs. The best of Kris Bubic’s three starts was a 4.1 inning effort in which he held the Tigers to one run despite walking six with just four strikeouts. Overall, he’s walked nine of 40 batters with just five strikeouts. Never mind anything else, including that he’s allowed just two barrels (7.7%). His best estimator is a 6.52 DRA. RHBs own a .342 wOBA against him since last year, yet Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP since last season) is the only Yankee bat currently projected for a top 10 overall point total.