DFS Alerts

While CIN is experiencing some heavy rain right now, Kevin is hopeful that it may clear up by tonight. Make sure to check back closer to lineup lock though, as the game is still listed as an ORANGE/YELLOW.

Shields has allowed .372 wOBA vs LHBs as a Padre; Pirates only have two LHs in the lineup

James Shields has allowed 15 HRs at Petco to LHBs as a Padre and 20 here overall. Three of the four HRs he’s allowed this season have come at Coors, so we can’t yet tell if last year was an aberration. His SwStr% is down (10.0%) a couple of points from last year, but still near his 10.4% career mark. Everything else looks almost exactly the same as last year so far. We’re just waiting to see if his HR rate regresses. If so, he can be a very useful pitcher. If not, it could be even uglier if he’s not striking out batters at a career high rate. On a six game slate with a lot of risk outside the top two, he’s really a coin flip as a secondary option on two pitch sites. The Pirates appear to be a relatively neutral matchup here. The park has played more homer friendly since last year and Shields has a pretty extreme split since last season, holding RHBs in check, but allowing a .372 wOBA to LHBs. John Jaso appears to be in a prime spot to take advantage atop the lineup with a 136 wRC+ vs RHP since last season. Andrew McCutchen hits righties well (140 wRC+ since last season), but is much more expensive. Exposure to either Pirates hitters or Shields should probably be light with several better options to pick on tonight.

Gerrit Cole serves as one of the top pitching options tonight

As one of the top options on tonight’s slate, Gerrit Cole looks to glide his way to a victory against the Padres in Petco Park. Going up against a primarily right handed lineup, Cole will only have to square off against 2 lefties. This is good news for Cole, given his career line of 23.7K% – 2.85 xFIP – 8.59K/9 against RHP, all of which are better marks than his career numbers against LHP. The projected run total for the Padres is just barely over 3 runs, and ranks second lowest only because Jake Arrieta is pitching against the Reds tonight. As a result, it would be a wise decision to stay away from the SDP bats tonight and fire up Cole in all formats with confidence.

Astros (34.3 Hard%, 19.4 HR/FB) face Griffin (0.72 GB/FB)

A.J. Griffin is an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.72 GB/FB), who struck out just one in his first start and walked four in his last one. He faces a team with tremendous power vs RHP (34.3 Hard%, 19.4 HR/FB) and does not even have a particularly price point. That’s probably all we want to say about him. Aside from Tyler White’s short sample (203 wRC+), the Astros don’t have a wRC+ above 122 vs RHP since last year in the lineup and that’s Preston Tucker. However, they don’t have one below 112 in the top six or 90 in the entire lineup. Additionally, every bat in the lineup has a .150 or better ISO vs RHP since 2015. The top four obviously take precedence, but we should feel confident stacking the Astros and expecting them to flex some muscle nearly all the way through. Houston has the 2nd highest run projection tonight (4.6 runs).

Royals are a team to target against Pelfrey tonight

The Royals batters find themselves in an excellent matchup tonight against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey (career 12.9K% and 5.12K/9) isn’t likely to strike batters out and has been known to give up runs in bunches. These are the type of pitchers we like to attack in DFS, and tonight should be no different. The Royals struck out a league-low 16.3% of the time last year against RHP, and given Pelfrey’s low K%, we should absolutely expect the ball to be put into play tonight. LHB’s Eric Hosmer (.378 wOBA & 141 wRC+ in 2015 against RHP), Mike Moustakas (.353 wOBA & 123 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) and Kendrys Morales (.385 wOBA & .254 ISO in 2015 against RHP) consist of the top plays of the night for the Royals. In addition, Alex Gordon (120 wRC+) and Lorenzo Cain (113 wRC+) have hit RH pitching well in the past and are also solid plays. Feel confident playing the Royal’s batters in cash and stacking them in GPP’s tonight.

Keuchel still showing troubling signs, but keeping ball on the ground

Dallas Keuchel has a 2.18 ERA, but all is not good here. Both his velocity (88.4 mph) and SwStr% (7.4) are way down, thought he latter was at least league average in his last start. Fangraphs noted that he’s not getting the low strike called before his last start and that continued to be true, though his chase rate was back up to 34.9% in that start as well. He still has a strong 56 GB%, but that’s five points less than less year with a 10 point increase in hard contact (32.1 Hard%). Fewer ground balls and strikeouts makes him less valuable for daily fantasy purposes and he takes a clear seat behind Arrieta and Cole tonight. However, if we lose Arrieta to rain (watch Kevin’s late update), you might not be able to avoid him entirely on two pitcher sites and he hasn’t been terrible, just not as good. With his ability to continue to generate ground balls and the Rangers unwillingness to platoon (Keuchel .198 wOBA vs LHB since last year), we don’t really want to attack him with only Beltre (147 RC+) above average vs LHP since 2015 and he has just an 82.3 mph EV against Keuchel on 10 batted balls since last season.

Edinson Volquez looks to build on his success at home against RH heavy Tigers lineup

The Tigers are in a weird spot tonight – the bats are a tier or two too expensive for this match-up, but targeting Edinson Volquez against one of the tougher lineups in the league is not a recommended strategy. This game being played in KC works in Volquez’s favor, as it’s a more pitcher-friendly environment and he pitched well in that park last season. Volquez allowed a .294 wOBA at home last year in just under 100 IP, including a very solid 0.56 HR/9 rate, something that puts a damper on the upside of players like Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton. He still allows a fair amount of hard contact (32.5% vs. L, 28.2% vs. R in 2015), but he does a fairly good job of keeping the ball on the ground, something that bodes well for Volquez given the strength of KC’s defense. Paying up for any of the Tigers bats is a strategy best left for large-field GPPs, but there are more appealing options elsewhere. There isn’t much to like at the 2B spot on tonight’s slate, so Ian Kinsler (who has been red-hot to start the year) is the top target on the Detroit side.

Tillman .354 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015 faces Blue Jays

The real Chris Tillman stood up in his last start after creating some excitement in his first two. The velocity was back down to normal levels and he struck out just one of the 25 Rangers he faced. However, he is continuing to generate weak contact (-13.9 Hard-Soft%, 83.55 mph EV), though he hasn’t faced a top caliber offense yet. That changes tonight as we want no part of Tillman and his career 1.0 GB/FB, 11.0 HR/FB against the Blue Jays in Baltimore. In fact, on a short slate, he’s one of a few pitchers we’re looking to attack. Strangely, he’s one of several pitchers tonight exhibiting a reverse platoon split since 2015 (.354 vs RHBs, .308 vs LHBs), although he has a longer track record of doing the same throughout his career (.332 vs RHB, .317 vs LHBs). That’s actually really bad news for him tonight. Donaldson (150 wRC, .261 ISO vs RHP since last season), Bautista (157 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Encarnacion (150 wRC+, .277 ISO) all pound same handed pitchers and should be very popular tonight. Michael Saunders is a more average left-handed bat, but gains value just by association at the top of the lineup. Troy Tulowitzki (90 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Russell Martin (92 wRC+ vs RHP) have unfortunately under-performed, especially against RHP since arriving in Toronto.

Yankees sit some LHBs vs Hill

Brett Gardner misses his 2nd straight game and Brian McCann gets the night off against a tough lefty as well. It’s still difficult to know what to make of Rich Hill. We have four starts last year and three so far this year with the most recent work having a wide range of outcomes from good to bad to okay. He’s retained the double digit SwStr% and kept the ball on the ground more with no change in velocity, but has been hit harder in two of his three starts this year. With the Yankees struggling, especially against LHP (88 wRC+ in 129 PA) it might be worth taking a shot for a reasonable cost with little else to have confidence in within that price range. Although, the Yankees’ issues seems to be more contact related (2.7 HR/FB, 0.0 Hard-Soft%) than plate discipline (6.2 K-BB%) vs lefties thus far. If you choose to attack Hill, it should probably be the middle of the lineup, though Beltran and Teixeira (110 wRC+ each) have barely been above average vs LHP since last season. ARod has a 141 wRC+, .251 ISO, 36.4 Hard% vs LHP since last season, but has slumped to start 2016. A 94 mph Exit Velocity gives hope that his bat hasn’t entirely slowed down though.

Estrada (career 0.74 GB/FB) goes to Baltimore (34.2 Hard%, 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP)

Marco Estrada has never thrown more ground balls than fly balls in a season. This and a 12.7 IFFB% with a 17.5 LD% is a big part of the reason he has a career .262 BABIP, but he had a .216 BABIP last year and there’s no way he’s repeating that. He’s been able to get swings and misses at a better than league average rate with his 9.9 SwStr% last year being his lowest mark, but this is an incredibly dangerous spot for a pitcher with a career 11.0 HR/FB and 32.2 Hard%. They owon’t stay this hot, but the Orioles have a 151 wRC+ and 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP with a 34.2 Hard%. For his career, Estrada has absolutely no platoon split meaning we can stack up our Orioles tonight with an expectation of power from either side. Davis (166 wRC+, .357 ISO, .45.2 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) and Machado (159, .252, 35%) are the obvious top choices, while Jonathan Schoop (132, .262, 39.6%) is the perhaps the value play, but with a poor lineup spot. He has a 103.4 average Exit Velocity off Estrada in four batted balls since last year. Mark Trumbo (229 wRC+ last seven days, 95.82 average Exit Velocity in 2016) has been crushing the ball, but there really isn’t a batter that needs to be avoided in this lineup as they have the highest projected run total tonight (4.75). Even J.J. Hardy has a 94.2 average EV this year.

Valencia, Alonso sit, Canha bats 2nd against erratic Severino

The A’s have shaken up the lineup tonight against Luis Severino, who has been hit hard (30.0 LD%, 35.0 Hard%, 94.04 avg EV) through two starts. Those are more descriptive than predictive and may be fixed with adjustments. While he benefited from an 87.0 LOB% last season, his ERA estimators are actually a run lower so far this season. His SwStr (8.2%) is down, but not terrible and his velocity is holding, so there should be some optimism that he should be much better once he gets rid of that ugly .436 BABIP. The A’s have been below average vs RHP (84 wRC+) and shake up the lineup a bit tonight with Valencia and Alonso taking seats. Mark Canha, though, has exhibited a reverse platoon split (126 wRC+, .213 ISO) so far vs RHP, which coincides with Severino’s .344 wOBA vs RHBs (.302 vs LHBs). It’s Yankee Stadium and the young pitcher has allowed a 17.5 HR/FB in the majors, so you’re LH power (Reddick 131 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, Vogt 126 wRC+ vs RHP) are also in play with the latter even serving as a value play with a hot bat and low price at the Catcher position. Both also have an ISO just above .200 vs RHP since last year. Khris Davis (120 wRC+, .244 ISO) might be the other interesting name if you believe in the reverse platoon thing, but he has been slumping and hits 8th tonight. On a short slate and with the underlying numbers looking better than the surface results, Severino may serve as a high risk, but potentially low owned GPP option if you believe he’s capable of making the necessary adjustments, though it’s understandable if you don’t have the stomach for it.

Arrieta begins 2016 as dominant as he ended 2015

Through three starts Jake Arrieta has gone at least seven innings with at least six strikeouts each time, allowing runs to cross the plate in only one of them. His strikeout rate remains strong (a quarter of the batters he’s faced) and the contact management has been even stronger (-7.0 Hard-Soft%) with a ton of ground balls (55.4%) and the 9th lowest average distance (180.71 ft) on batted balls according to Baseball Savant. The Reds are at home in a hitter’s park, but have just a 77 wRC+ vs RHP with one clear above average hitter against them (Votto 159 wRC+). Arrieta is the highest priced pitcher on the board and a clear top choice with the 2nd best matchup. Any significant exposure against him is likely foolish

Rizzo 133 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015, Finnegan exhibits reverse split

Brandon Finnegan dominated the Phillies in his first start then nearly no hit these Cubs in his second. However, he also walked five against as many strikeouts and walked four more with two strikeouts in his second start. Add his 10.7 major league BB% to the Cubs league high 12.7 BB% (12.2% vs LHP) and we likely have some problems. The potential upside may even be less as the Cubs are striking out less (21.2% overall, 29.3% vs LHP) this season. It would hardly seem worth the risk, but if you were insistent on picking up a pitcher from the bottom of the board, he would be the one with the most talent and upside. On the Chicago side, Miguel Montero sits against the lefty. Finnegan has actually dominated righties (.268 wOBA) and struggled with lefties (.336) early in his career, though we can’t have confidence in those numbers yet. Dexter Fowler (144 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) might be the guy with the most appeal at the top of the lineup. He has been hot with a 47.1 Hard% and 210 wRC+ over the last week. If you believe in the reverse platoon stuff, Anthony Rizzo (133 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) is a strong match with an overal 252.53 ft avg DST this year. Ben Zobrist is the other strong bat vs LHP (153 wRC+ since 2015). He has an ugly -2 wRC+ over the last week and has been dropped to 7th in the lineup, but a 42.1 Hard% over this period paints a brighter picture. Kris Bryant (107 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is also a reverse platoon guy in limited opportunities, so he may not be as perfect a fit as initially seems.

Johnny Cueto has favorable match up against Diamondbacks; Buster Posey out for rest

Playing in San Francisco with a somewhat low total of 7.5 makes this a game that should favor pitchers which makes Giants SP Johnny Cueto an excellent option for those playing on late-swap sites or with two SP’s. You can always look to Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta (both with wOBA’s topping .394 vs RHP) but they are more secondary options today. The Giants face Shelby Miller who has been shaky to say the least this year having allowed 12 ER in 12 2/3 IP. The LH bats of the Giants, Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, and Buster Crawford are all secondary options in their pitcher-friendly home park. Buster Posey is getting the day off for rest.

Offenses should rule the day in Angels-White Sox game

Both pitchers taking the mound for the Angels-White Sox game are wildly inconsistent and vulnerable to giving up big games and Vegas has taken note giving the game a over/under of 9 which is the highest total of the early slate of games. White Sox SP John Danks allowed a .353 wOBA to RH bats last season while his opponent, Jered Weaver, allowed .325+ wOBAs to both sides of the plate last season. Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, and especially Mike Trout are top options from the Angels side of things and Andrelton Simmons batting second makes for a good addition to a stack. The same can be said for pretty much anyone in the White Sox lineup, especially those hitting in the top six of the order. Load up on the likes of Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, and Todd Frazier while also taking a look at Jimmy Rollins, Melky Cabrera, and Brett Lawrie.