DFS Alerts
Tucker, Castro sit for Houston vs knuckleballer
It’s incredibly difficult to dissect a new knuckleballer because there aren’t many and most fail as conventional starters (as he has) before turning to the pitch. Making it even tougher, Steven Wright, has faced (and handled) Toronto in both of his starts this year with an 11.1 SwStr%. Houston may similarly swing out of their shoes and come away with the same results, but it may also be pressing your luck with the knucklebal even if he is below $7K on both major sites. Additionally, Wright showed poor (4.09 ERA/5.01 FIP/4.85 xFIP) in 73 big league innings last season. While lefty/righty splits mean less against knucklers (Wright is slightly worse vs RHB since 2015 – .322 wOBA) and may be why Houston has chosen to sit a couple of LHBs (Tucker, Castro), Altuve, Springer, and Rasmus are all above average vs RHP and have a 200+ wRC+, 37.5+ Hard% over the last week. Correa has a 130 wRC+ vs RHP, but has struggled. Tyler White has a 177 wRC+ vs RHP in a short sample and an overall 253 ft avg distance. Some exposure to this powerful Houston lineup should at least be considered.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Colby Rasmus, Jose Altuve, Tyler White, Carlos Correa, Steven Wright
Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie in favorable spots against Martin Perez
Martin Perez has been off to somewhat of an odd start. While he’s missing more bats (8.2 SwStr%), he’s also walking more batters and has had some HR issues early this season, something he was not accustomed to either of the past two seasons. He’ll take on a right-handed heavy White Sox lineup in U.S. Cellular this evening, which bodes well for the outlook of Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu and Brett Lawrie. Frazier is the best of the bunch with his .377 wOBA and .346 ISO against LHP last season, while Abreu still boasts a ton of upside despite a slow start to the season (he finished 2015 with a fairly solid 34.2 hard%, but hit just 3 HRs against LHP). Brett Lawrie is the sneakiest of the White Sox targets, as he’s not typically a DFS asset unless he’s facing lefties (.354 wOBA, .191 ISO, 36.2 hard% last season). He’ll slot into the six spot and should see some RBI chances behind Abreu, Frazier and Melky Cabrera. Austin Jackson is a viable punt play in the two-hole (Jimmy Rollins is not in tonight’s lineup), while Jerry Sands has some deep-GPP appeal given his power potential.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie, Austin Jackson, Jerry Sands, Martin Perez
Norris 13.4 HR/FB last two calendar years, Mets have hit 19 last seven days
Bud Norris is a human launching pad with a 13.4 HR/FB over the last two rolling years. The Mets have hit 19 HRs the last seven days. It’s not exactly a power friendly environment in Atlanta, but it’s not impossible either and this Mets lineup might provide the best alternate stacking opportunity outside of Colorado, affording you more flexibility with your pitching. Michael Conforto (145 wRC+, .263 ISO, 42.8 Hard% vs RHP) needs to be strongly considered for $3.4K on both sites in the three spot. You probably know Cespedes (149 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has gone into beast mode (278 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days) and has a 94.36 avg exit velocity/255 ft average distance this year, but probably didn’t know David Wright is hitting them even harder (94.47 avg EV) and farther (260.79 avg DST). Granderson, Duda, and Walker are all above average hitters vs RHP who are also crushing it (170 wRC+) over the last week.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Bud Norris, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker Carrera leads off, Tulo sits against Sonny Gray
This is probably a perfect situation to avoid anyway, but Ezequiel Carrera is tonight’s leadoff man for the Jays, while a struggling Troy Tulowitzki sits against Sonny Gray. Gray doesn’t generate the strikeouts that pitchers normally associated with his price tag do, but locates well and keeps the ball on the ground, both things that help pitchers in real life baseball. Facing one of the top offenses in baseball in a tough park is not a place where we want to test those skills if we can’t count on the strikeouts to fall back on. Addtionally, while Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion are basically matchup proof, it could be a struggle to elevate for them, potentially draining their value, though they are priced a bit lower than recent games. It has also just come across on MLB Network that Chris Colabello has been suspended 80 games for PED use. Justin Smoak may see increased opportunities.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion Tomlin showed major reverse platoon split last year, faces RH dominant Tigers
This could be an interesting spot. Josh Tomlin might be an under-rated pitcher with an above average K% since 2014, but left his only start this season with a hamstring issue. Hamstrings can be tricky and he returns less than a week later to face a tough RH lineup in Detroit. Furthermore, he allowed a .354 wOBA to RHBs last year, while dominating LHBs (.193 wOBA). It’s a short sample of less than 200 batters each, but he’s also allowed RHBs a slightly higher wOBA (.333) for his career. This creates an opportunity to pick up a few RHBs, who are all above average hitters vs RHPs on a night where they might be low owned and facing an injured pitcher starting with Ian Kinsler (112 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), Justin Upton (128 wRC+ vs RHP), and then Miguel Cabrera (154 wRC+ vs RHP) who has just a 37 wRC+, but 42.9 Hard% over the last week, consistent with his Hard% vs RHP. J.D. Martinez adds a 134 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, JD Martinez, Josh Tomlin Sabathia down to 86 mph, allowed .366 wOBA to RHBs since last year
C.C. Sabathia has seen further decline in his velocity, plummeting down to an average 86.6 mph this season. He is no longer usable at all in a daily fantasy sense because many of his mistakes will be hit out of the park and his SwStr% (8.7) has dipped below average. There’s no longer any upside here. The Rays stack up eight RH bats against a pitcher who has allowed a .366 wOBA to RHBs since last season. This could get ugly and provides an excellent stacking opportunity outside of Coors tonight. You can start right with Logan Forsythe (165 wRC+, .297 ISO, 39.5 Hard% vs LHP since last season) and Brandon Guyer (147 wRC+ vs LHP), who are two of the top values of the night. Additionally, Forsythe has a 240 wRC+, 58.3 Hard% over the last week and a 94.4 avg exit velocity/255.52 avg distance this season. Evan Longoria (153 wRC+, .223 ISO vs LHP) is the other top bat vs southpaws. If you care to venture into the 9th spot for your Catcher however, Curt Casali has a .279 ISO vs LHP since last season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Brandon Guyer, Evan Longoria, Curt Casali, CC Sabathia Felix Hernandez scratched; Hisashi Iwakuma to start in his place
Hernandez has been scratched due to an illness, which leads to Hisashi Iwakuma moving up a day to start tonight against the Angels. This improves the outlook for the Angels hitters, but it doesn’t necessarily make any of them recommended targets. They’ve been ice cold to start the season and it’s not worth targeting them heavily on a full slate.
Other tagged players: Hisashi Iwakuma Ellbury out of the Yankees lineup; Starlin Castro remains in the two-spot
Jacoby Ellsbury will get a night of rest with Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran and Aaron Hicks roaming the outfield this evening. Starlin Castro remains in the two-hole against Matt Moore and the Rays, but be wary of him as he offers limited upside against LHP (.283 wOBA, .058 ISO last season). The Yankees lineup is general is likely worth avoiding on a full slate, as they aren’t nearly as exciting against LHP and are actually slight underdogs at home as of this writing. Matt Moore has been a polarizing figure over the past few seasons, as he’s a pitcher with front-end stuff that can never seem to stay healthy or consistent when he gets an opportunity. Moore actually leads all pitchers on tonight’s slate with a very solid 12.9 SwStr%, including a K% of 28.4 (behind only Aaron Nola among pitchers with at least two starts), making him one of the nicer mid-range GPP (or SP2) pitchers on the slate. His velocity is up nearly a MPH over last season and he’s issued just three free passes this season, so it’s very possible he’s finally turned the corner.
Other tagged players: Starlin Castro, Jacoby Ellsbury Harvey looks to get a boost from altering mechanics against Braves
Matt Harvey has started fine, but faltered in the middle innings of his first few starts, dropping velocity and finding trouble with men on base (58.6 LOB%). The overall and consistent drop in SwStr% (8.3) is a top concern, but it should still be enough to generate more strikeouts and PC Dan Warthen thinks he found the issue in his mechanice, which he believes fixed in a bullpen session this week. One couldn’t blame you for being disgusted and moving off him, even in this cake matchup tonight. But if he is fixed, you might see Harvey potentially under-owned (though not low owned) in a great spot against the Braves tonight (66 wRC+ at home, 74 wRC+ vs RHP). If you need more optimism, Harvey still has the 9th lowest exit velocity off the bat among pitchers with at least 20 batted balls this season (88.23 mph). With Freeman struggling and getting consistently pitched around, there’s little to like on the offensive side.
As reported by: AmazinAvenue Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Royals in another favorable spot tonight against Yovani Gallardo and his poor 4.8 SwStr%
This Royals lineup is more or less the worst possible opponent a pitcher like Gallardo could face. First, he hasn’t been missing many bats this year as evidenced by his very poor 4.8 SwStr% and 12.7% K-rate to start the season. Second, the Royals are elite at putting the ball in play and making the defense work, which doesn’t bode particularly well for an Orioles team that was built to hit. Gallardo doesn’t have polarizing split stats, so hitters from both sides are squarely in play here. The lefties towards the top of the lineup are in the best spots; Mike Moustakas (.387 wOBA, .209 ISO, 39.6 hard% vs. RHs at home last year), Eric Hosmer (.396 wOBA, .222 ISO, 37.0 hard% vs. RHs at home last year) and Kendrys Morales (.384 wOBA, .242 ISO, 37.3 hard% vs. RHs at home last season) are all recommended targets. Lorenzo Cain remains a strong play hitting in the 3-spot, while Alcides Escobar is a suitable (albeit unexciting) punt play atop the order.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Yovani Gallardo Nola should find some Ks in Milwaukee lineup (25.1 K% vs RHP)
Aaron Nola has displayed a bit of a HR problem (15.4 HR/FB in just under 100 major league innings) and that could bite him tonight in Milwaukee, but the Brewers have also struck out a quarter of their PAs vs RHP so far. Nola has about an average SwStr rate (8.9%) with a better than average strikeout rate (23.1%), though it’s too early to buy into his 30.3 K% this year. He’s pitched incredibly well in two of his three starts despite the 5.61 ERA. Don’t buy it. His estimators are nearly half that and as long as his control doesn’t abandon him (three walks – all in his last start), a couple of long balls shouldn’t kill him if the Brewers continue to strike out at a 25%+ clip tonight. With Milwaukee leaning mostly RH and Nola holding righties to a .279 wOBA, we’d rather pick on some less talented pitchers in worse spots. Ryan Braun is the only name that may merit some consideration (126 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) with a 259 wRC+ and 46.7 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun Gibson has 56.2 career GB% vs RHBs, but Harper top bat tonight
Kyle Gibson generates a lot of ground balls. He’s not a bad pitcher, but just continues to not live up to the potential in his league average SwStr% with a below average K% the last few seasons. None of the Nationals RHBs hit RHP well and Gibson holds RHBs to a 56.2 GB% anyway. The two LHBs from Washington are another story, however. Daniel Murphy has a 127 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since last season and Bryce Harper is quite possibly the top player available tonight despite the price, even considering the Coors game. He has a 207 wRC+, .368 ISO, 39.8 Hard% vs RHP since last season and a 47.8 Hard% with a 266 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Kyle Gibson, Daniel Murphy Montero sits again for Cubs vs RHP Moscot to be targeted
Jon Moscot is not a highly ranked prospect in the Cincinnati system. He’s had an average walk rate, while not missing a league average number of bats at the higher levels of the minor league system and did not fare well in his only start this season. The Cubs are a patient team that should give him problems. Several players at the top of the lineup look attractive tonight, including Fowler (114 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) with a 191 wRC+ and 52.6 Hard% over the last week, Heyward (122 wRC+ vs RHP), Rizzo (147 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP), Bryant (142 wRC+, .218 ISO, 37.2 Hard% vs RHP). Miguel Montero sits again in favor of David Ross, who homered last night and is Lester’s personal catcher. The Cubs have the 2nd highest projected run total outside Coors (4.6) tonight, but be sure to check Kevin’s weather update later as this was as potential trouble spot.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Jon Moscot Sanchez generating lots of weak ground balls (59.4 GB%, 18.4 Hard%)
Aaron Sanchez has walked seven of his last 51 batters, but has finished with at least six innings and five Ks in every start without allowing more than a run. Further, he has a 59.4 GB% and 18.4 Hard% that match last year’s rates making his control issues his only real blemish at this point. The HR rate is a little high, but less problematic when less than a quarter of your contact is in the air. That makes him a very difficult pitcher to target with the Oakland hitters, though several handle RHP well. Forget about the RH bats (.188 wOBA against), though potentially Coghlan in the two spot (121 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since last year) at an affordable cost and Vogt (126 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP) at a weak position stand the best chance of producing value against a .361 wOBA allowed to LHBs. Josh Reddick (130 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) could also find his way to a few fantasy points, but does not offer anything unique at his current price. The loss of Valencia to the DL makes this a slightly more attractive spot for Sanchez, who you’d like to see increase his 8.5 SwStr% before buying into his high 26.3 K%. Throwing his hard sinker over 60% of the time will often create those ground balls he craves, but could hinder his punchouts. Still, he looks to be improving and beginning to live up to the prospect hype and comes at a very affordable price.
Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt, Chris Coghlan Lester is likely tonight's top overall pitcher
You’d think on the first full slate, you’d have your pick of consistent pitchers, but that doesn’t appear to be the case tonight. There’s a great case to be made for Jon Lester as the most and only really reliable daily fantasy starter tonight. He’s the highest priced pitcher on either board right around $11K and has the 2nd lowest SIERA (3.17) over the last two calendar years. He’s off to a strong start this year with a strikeout rate that matches his 25% last year. Other pitchers might have more upside, but he’s not by too much. Lester is usable in all formats and is the number one pitcher in non-GPP contests against a below average offense. The top three for the Reds have all performed very well against LHP since last season: Cozart (132 wRC+), Suarez (155 wRC+), and Votto (161 wRC+). In addition, both Votto (59.1 Hard%) and Phillips (48.2 Hard%), who is having a bit of resurgence, have hit the ball very hard over the last week. It would be very contrarian, but there are several spots that afford much greater opportunity tonight.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Eugenio Suarez, Zack Cozart