DFS Alerts

Tough Matchups Could Hinder Several Top Arms

Thirteen games on the Friday night slate with two pitchers crossing the $10K mark on both sites, two more just on FanDuel and then three more above $9K. Carlos Rodon has hit the IL twice and made just two starts over the last month with a shoulder issue, striking out just eight of 43 batters. The good news is that he’s had a 13 SwStr% in each of those two starts, but his velocity was down. Despite the dominance that’s seen just a single estimator exceed three this season (3.06 xFIP), expectations should probably be tempered against the Red Sox. There are enough reasons to fade the second most expensive pitcher on the board tonight, but the most expensive arm available is also the top arm. Robbie Ray has a 40.5 K% and 17.9 SwStr% over his last five starts and has a 25.9 K-BB% on the season. He’s also allowed just two home runs and six barrels (5.0%) over his last eight starts. He has 16 quality starts in his last 18 outings and five straight where he’s recorded seventh inning outs. The 2.60 ERA is still a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.14 SIERA to a 3.37 FIP, due to the 89.5 LOB%. Five of nine projected for Baltimore exceed a 24 K% vs LHP.

Costing more than $10K on FanDuel, but more than $1K less on DraftKings is the matchup in a neutral environment in Houston where Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez face off. In eight starts since his debacle at Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has a 23.4 K-BB% with just six walks and seven quality starts, all with two runs or less. Season estimators are around three and a half. The obvious problem here is the matchup. The Astros have a 123 wRC+ at home, 115 wRC+ vs RHP and only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 21 K% vs RHP this season. With a league average strikeout rate (22.0%), Framber Valdez has generated 69.9% of his contact on the ground. Even with a 90.2 mph EV, he’s only allowed 4.8% Barrels/BBE. His 3.08 ERA is about half a run below estimators. Valdez has faced fewer than 24 batters just three times this season, which means you’re paying up for volume, but the projected lineup for the Angels includes four batters above a 27 K% vs LHP this season. At just $9.1K on DraftKings, Valdez may be the top value among the four on either site.

Costing $9.9K on both sites, Tyler Mahle has been a bit inconsistent from a run prevention standpoint (only nine quality starts), but has been very efficient in the strikeout department (28.2 K%). His 3.76 ERA almost matches a 3.75 SIERA and xFIP with a 3.85 xERA just slightly higher. He gets a substantial park upgrade in St Louis, where he’ll face a below average offense (89 wRC+ vs RHP). However, Mahle has a reverse split and will be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup that includes just two projected batters above a 20.5 K% vs RHP.

Also above $9K on both sites, we have the matchup at Dodger Stadium tonight. Joe Musgrove has quality starts in six of his last eight attempts with five or fewer strikeouts in half of them, but eight or more in the other half. There have been some ups and downs and inconsistencies, but the overall production has been great, including a 21.2 K-BB%, 87.3 mph EV and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE. While a 2.96 DRA is on par with a 2.87 ERA, additional estimators hover around three and a half. Within $100 of $9.5K on either site, the Dodgers have a 114 wRC+ at home, 107 wRC+ vs RHP and only two of eight projected batters exceed a 21 K% vs RHP. Julio Urias has just one quality start in his last seven attempts, only because he’s frequently falling short of the workload requirement. He’s allowed a total of seven runs over this span, but has only completed six innings once. By rate stats, this has been a breakout season for Urias, producing a 21.6 K-BB% with exceptional contact management (86.2 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are all above his 3.11 ERA, but tightly packed between a 3.30 xERA and 3.62 xFIP. The Padres have just a 93 wRC+ vs LHP, but just three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20.5 K% vs LHP. It’s quite obvious there are matchup concerns with many of the pitchers costing more than $9K tonight with Robbie Ray and Framber Valdez being the most attractive exceptions.

Despite Strong Contact Management, LHBs Have Been a Problem

The Cubs have been riding Alec Mills (at least 24 batters faced in six of his last seven starts) and it’s worked out fairly well with a 3.79 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 4.42 xFIP over this span, despite just a 14.6 K%. He’s walked just five with a 48.9 GB%. He’s allowed just 4.5% Barrels/BBE on the year, yet his 4.55 xERA is higher than his 4.25 ERA or any of his other estimators. The success he’s had has come against RHBs, as LHBs own a .375 wOBA, .363 xwOBA against him this year. While the weather isn’t expected to be as cooperative as yesterday’s forecast, it’s not necessarily a bad spot for LHBs here. Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .338 ISO vs RHP) is the main cog here and isn’t even all that expensive, but the addition of Tyler Naquin (125 wRC+, .235 ISO), projected to bat second, to daily fantasy lineups will really provide some salary relief, as the latter only costs $2.9K. These two make for a nice little mini-stack, but if you’re considering punting a position, Max Schrock (151 wRC+, .214 ISO) has impressed in a small sample and costs no more than $2.1K on either site at second base.

A High Ground Ball Rate Hasn't Stopped Batters from Barreling This Pitcher

The Oakland A’s have a 4.76 team total, which is currently grouped with several other offenses around fifth on tnoight’s board, but a strong White Sox bullpen and negative run environment are probably the only things keeping them from being much higher. It certainly isn’t the performance of Dallas Keuchel, who has both walked and struck out five of his last 54 batters with 18 runs allowed (16 earned) over his last nine innings. He still has one of the top ground ball rates in the league (55.5%), but with just a 13.7 K% and 9.3% Barrels/BBE. His best estimator is a 4.61 xFIP, while his 5.22 ERA matches his 5.26 FIP. RHBs have a .341 wOBA and .380 xwOBA against him, while the A’s are projected to come at him with eight from that side of the plate, only two of which (Khris Davis and Elvis Andrus) are below a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Additionally, not only has Matt Chapman (136 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP this year) caught fire (194 wRC+ last 30 days), but he’s homered three times against Keuchel in just 18 PAs with two more doubles and a 92.3 mph EV. If you’re looking for a value play in this lineup, Josh Harrison (130 wRC+ vs LHP) has been hitting leadoff and costs just $2.9K on FanDuel tonight.

Top Offenses Facing Worst Bullpens

A nine game main slate on Wednesday finds just three teams above five implied runs, though also only six below 4.5 with the Padres and Angels still off the board due to Joe Maddon’s secrecy concerning his pitching plans (a likely bullpen game). Probably not coincidentally, the two teams with the highest team totals (Braves 5.89, Royals 5.21) face off not only against beatable starting pitching in favorable parks, but the two worst bullpens on the board behind them. In the case of the Braves, with the state of pitcher so troubling and expensive, Sean Nolin may actually be a usable SP2 on DraftKings with a very low cost. Considering the stance of the sportsbooks though, your preference should probably be Braves bats should you not need to dip that low for your second starting pitcher. RHBs have a ..403 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against Nolin so far and everybody not named Freddie Freeman for Atlanta is projected to bat from that side of the plate. Ozzie Albies has crushed LHP this year (149 wRC+, .277 ISO) with Jorge Soler (131 wRC+, .308 ISO) the value play here for less than $4K on either site. The Washington bullpen has a 5.77 ERA, 5.81 FIP and 5.28 xFIP over the last 30 days.

As for the Royals, you probably don’t have to worry about much conflict with Matt Harvey on the mound. While nothing else has been far out of line, his 16.6 K% has been crushing without any elite skills. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA against Harvey this season and the bullpen behind him has a 5.24 ERA, 5.11 FIP and 4.85 xERA over the last month. Salvador Perez (113 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP) is the only truly dangerous bat in this lineup, but the key here is affordability. This projected lineup includes just three batters above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel, allowing players the ability to pay up for more than one expensive pitcher tonight.

A Couple of Cheaper SP2 Options

Wednesday night’s slate contains a lot of tough and expensive pitching choices. More problematically, there’s nobody that really stands out below $9K either. Alek Manoah has been inconsistent recently and travels to face the Yankees. Kyle Gibson has just a 14.7 K% with the Phillies. Luis Gil has struck out 18 of the 64 batters he’s faced and costs just $7K on DraftKings, but also walked seven. The 10.9 BB% is actually his best at any level outside a 30.2 inning stint at AA to start the season (10%). Not a good outlook against Toronto. Vladimir Gutierrez has a single digit K-BB% on the season with all estimators above his 4.17 ERA. We’re left with two potentially usable, though unexciting SP2 options on DraftKings in Mike Minor and Sean Nolin.

Minor has allowed fewer than three runs in just two of his last 12 starts with a 6.24 ERA, but 59.1 LOB%. That’s not to say his he’s been good, but a 13.2 K-BB% isn’t too far below average. He’s struck out just 11 of his last 70 with a 7.1 SwStr% though. While the Orioles have a 104 wRC+ vs LHP, that has been declining. Baltimore is a park downgrade, especially from a power standpoint, for Minor, but he costs just $6.7K and more than half the projected lineup for the Orioles exceeds a 24 K% vs LHP this year.

Nolin will be making his fifth start of the year for the Nationals, but only his second against a team other than the Mets. All four of his barrels (6.9%) have left the yard (21.1 HR/FB), generating a 5.19 FIP to go along with a 5.71 ERA (.389 BABIP). Non-FIP estimators are all in the lower fours with a 15.2 K-BB%. He’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup in a difficult park, but the Braves do have just a 95 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Three in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP, but nobody else is above 20%. However, Nolin costs just $5.9K on DraftKings. If you’d rather go with Dallas Keuchel or Matt Harvey, whose summed strikeout rates barely break 30%, good luck.

Top Heavy Pitching Board Littered with Injuries and Difficult Matchups

Although only one player reaches the $10K price point on either site, Wednesday’s main slate is a high priced board with four additional pitchers costing at least $9K on both sites. On a nine game slate, that makes up one-third of the board. Problematically, the most expensive pitcher on the board is Freddy Peralta on DraftKings ($10.2). Problematic, not necessarily because his last two outings surrounding an IL stint didn’t go very well, but because they were both very short (two innings, 12 batters each). He’s thrown a total of 96 pitches since the 10th of August, nearly a month. Without the workload concerns, he’d be a great choice and perhaps the top pitcher on the board. Peralta’s 34.0 K% leads the slate by quite a bit. His 2.70 ERA is nearly matched by a 2.66 xERA (86.4 mph EV, 5.3% Barrels/BBE), though additional estimators exceed three. However, a full workload is likely not the circumstances we’re dealing with tonight. According to PlateIQ, there are currently three batters in the Philadelphia projected lineup above a 23 K% vs RHP this season, so it’s not a particularly high upside spot for an expensive pitcher in a neutral environment with a potentially limited workload.

Adam Wainwright is exactly $10K on FanDuel. He’s thrown nine straight quality starts, recording seventh inning outs in all but one with a 17.4 K-BB%. While that’s due more to elite control (4.6%), he’s still striking out batters at nearly a league average rate. In fact, his 22.6 K% for the season is his highest mark since 2013. While his 2.91 ERA is at least half a run below all estimators (78.9 LOB%), all are below four. Now for the bad news. Wainwright is facing the Dodgers (108 wRC+ vs RHP) with only three batters in the projected lineup above a 20 K% vs RHP this season. That said, St Louis suppresses power (the park, not the city of course) and Wainwright costs nearly $2K less ($8.1K) on DraftKings, where he may still be a strong value.

Nathan Eovaldi is actually the only pitcher on the entire slate costing at least $9.5K on both sites. Interestingly, he has allowed a total of 14 home runs this year and nine of them have come in his last seven starts with at least one in six of them. However, he’s also riding a 32 K% over his last five starts, over which he has just a 2.35 ERA. All season estimators are below his 3.73 ERA, but only his FIP (2.92), ironically, by more than a quarter of a run. This is a really tough spot for Eovaldi too. The Rays have a 111 wRC+ vs RHP and 149 wRC+ over the last seven days and whereas there used to be a ton of strikeouts in this lineup, half the projected lineup is below a 20 K% vs RHP this year. Then there’s also the matter of a solidly positive run environment with a potential weather boost that could make it play nearly like Coors tonight. Eovaldi may be excessively priced under these circumstances. Eovaldi’s opponent, Shane McClanahan has a 3.76 ERA that’s above most of his estimators due to a .343 BABIP to go along with his 20.6 K-BB%, but the contact profile here is a bit of an issue, as his 4.65 xERA is nearly a run above his ERA. His 45.0 GB% is above average, but his 91.2 mph EV has still generated 9.8% Barrels/BBE. The 28 K% has limited the damage and a 15.3 SwStr% suggests even more is possible, but he’ll either need to realize that strikeout potential or cut back on the hard contact to take the next step. Of course, he’s dealing with the same environment against a good offense (Red Sox 104 wRC+ vs LHP, just two in projected lineup above a 21.1 K% vs LHP).

Whatever has been ailing Yu Darvish has not been fixed by a trip to the IL. Darvish now has a 7.57 ERA in 44 innings since the start of July, allowing at least four runs in seven of nine starts. Optimistically, you have a 22.2 K-BB% over that span with a 3.58 xFIP, but he’s also allowed 13 home runs (25 HR/FB) and 14 barrels (10.6%) for a 5.33 FIP, while his velocity has been steadily declining. That the Angels lose the DH and that likely means Shohei Ohtani and that San Diego is a negative run environment helps, but this is getting concerning. The projected lineup for the Angels includes just two below a 24 K% vs RHP this season and Darvish does cost just $9K on FanDuel.

Saving the best for last, perhaps, Frankie Montas may be the top pitcher on the board tonight. Although he’s allowed exactly three runs four times in his last 10 starts, Montas has allowed no more than that and has thrown nine quality starts in that span with a 32.5 K%. While the contact profile (89.9 mph EV, 9.1% Barrels/BBE) has kept his xERA above four (4.07), additional estimators are all within one-third of a run of his 3.68 ERA. The White Sox don’t represent an easy matchup at all (108 wRC+ vs RHP) with marginal strikeout rates (everyone in the projected lineup between an 18.9% and 25.4 K% vs RHP), but Oakland remains one of the more negative run environments in the league. At exactly $9K on either site, Montas may just be the top value on the board as well.

Cheap Bats with the Wind Blowing Out

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight, not enough to put it on par with Coors and pitcher friendly umpire could slightly conflict with the effects, but it does make this a great spot to look for bats tonight. While the Reds are the team with the total above five runs, the Cubs offer affordability, which man be more important, considering the state of pitching tonight. RHBs have a .326 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against Wade Miley this year, who’s estimators are all more than a run above his 2.97 ERA with just an 18.3 K%. Michael Hermosillo (139 wRC+, .286 ISO) and Frank Schwindel (225 wRC+, .400 ISO) have very small samples, less than 50 PAs, according to PlateIQ, against LHP, but the latter costs just $3.5K on DraftKings, while the former costs exactly $2K on each site. Hermosillo and Schwindel are projected to bat first and second tonight. The wind is specifically blowing out to right field, according to Weather Edge, which makes Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .338 ISO vs RHP) one of the top bats on the slate against Adrian Sampson, who struck out just two of 17 Reds in his only spot start of the season a few weeks back. He’s struck out just 11 of 48 batters this year with two home runs allowed and has just an 11.8 K-BB% over 164.1 career innings with 39 home runs and 54 barrels (9.4%). Tyler Naquin (127 wRC+, .239 ISO) costs just $2.9K on either site.

Weather Boost and Matchup Could Make Tough Park a Smash Spot

St Louis is a negative run environment that suppresses power, especially during the cooler months of the year, but Weather Edge is currently suggesting a major overall offensive and power boost here tonight. Combine that with the Dodgers visiting and J.A. Happ on the mound and you have what we might call a Smash Spot. This game does not yet have a total because the Dodgers haven’t confirmed a starting pitcher (though Mitch White is expected to pitch the bulk), but you can probably have some confidence that the visiting team will be above five runs here. Happ allowed just seven runs over 28 innings in his first five starts for the Cardinals without any real change to his underlying profile, but then got smacked in the face by the Reds last time out with seven of the 13 batters he faced scoring with two home runs and walks without a strikeout. He doesn’t have a single estimator below five and RHBs have a .383 wOBA, .364 xwOBA against him, while he hasn’t exactly dominated LHBs either (.322 wOBA, .329 xwOBA). Albert Pujols, projected to bat cleanup, has been crushing LHP this year (151 wRC+, .317 ISO) and costs less than $3K on either site, including $100 above the minimum on FanDuel. Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .252 ISO) has a .399 xwOBA and five extra base hits in 49 career PAs against Happ, mostly coming when the lefty was a much better pitcher, during their AL East battles. Trea Turner (188 wRC+, .273 ISO) is a top bat tonight. Don’t sleep on the Cardinals either. LHBs have a .315 wOBA, but .335 xwOBA against White this season, while Tommy Edman (145 wRC+ last 30 days) and Dylan Carlson (124 wRC+ last 30 days) have been hitting the ball well and are very affordable.

The Worst Bullpens Backing Starters with Limited Workloads

Alex Wells has just a 16.1 K% (7.5 BB%) with just 26.5% of his contact on the ground and a 92.4 mph EV over 18.2 major league innings. While he only struck out 21.9% in 54.2 AAA innings, it was with just a 3.2 BB%, as elite control has been the staple of his ascension through the minors. Guys who throw a ton of strikes, but don’t miss bats and frequently generate hard hit fly balls are not really what the Orioles need right now. In addition, Wells has only twice exceeded 21 batters faced at AAA or in the majors this year, which means the Royals will also get to see a lot of the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days (5.90 ERA, 5.50 FIP, 4.98 xFIP). As such, Kansas City is one of eight offenses so far to reach five implied runs tonight. Aside from Salvador Perez (170 wRC+, .361 ISO), the Royals don’t have a lot of good hitters against LHP, but what they do have is a lot of cheap hitters, which is going to help when paying up for pitching tonight. RHBs have a .460 wOBA, .449 xwOBA against Wells in a small sample, which has to be regressed substantially, but it’s very unlikely he’s actually good against RHBs right now. Edward Olivares has just a 53 wRC+ vs LHP and 40 wRC+ over the last 30 days, also in small samples, but is projected to hit cleanup in this lineup for just $2.5K on either site. In fact, there are just three batters in this projected lineup above $3.7K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel, so players can just wait to see who is going to be in this lineup and then plug in anyone who bats in the top half.

Elsewhere, the Washington bullpen has been just as bad as Baltimore with a 5.55 ERA, 5.66 FIP and 5.25 xFIP over the last 30 days. Paolo Espino has an ERA and estimators above four and a half in 55.1 innings since being moved into the rotation, allowing 10.8% Barrels/BBE. He’s averaging just twice through the order in his starts and will get another one in Atlanta tonight, which means we can probably expect to see the bullpen somewhere around halfway through. The Braves have the top team total outside of Coors (5.53 runs) and while the core is significantly more expensive than Kansas City, Adam Duvall (118 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP) is still reasonably priced, while Austin Riley (157 wRC+, .263 ISO) costs less than $4K on FanDuel. Every batter in the projected Atlanta lineup exceeds a .150 ISO vs RHP this year and a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. One more bullpen you might be surprised to see near the bottom of the board is the A’s (5.12 FIP, 4.93 xFIP last 30 days) and James Kaprielian has allowed six home runs and seven barrels over his last three starts.

The Middle & Bottom of the Board Are Nearly Bare & Lacking Upside

It’s really not very pretty below the $9K mark on either site tonight. The middle and lower ends of the board are filled with pitchers who are either struggling, unproven, lack upside and/or are generally dealing with substantial workload limitations, such as Spencer Howard. You probably want to pay up on FanDuel and for at least one SP on DraftKings, where you’re still in need of a lower priced SP2. As far as any mid-range pitchers who may be able to stand on their own, we’re really down to two. Max Fried is striking out nearly a quarter of the batters he faces (24.3%) with good control (6.5 BB%) and lots of weak (86.9 mph EV) ground balls (49.9%). His 3.51 ERA matches his xFIP exactly, while being slightly lower than additional estimators no higher than a 3.78 SIERA. He’s only less than $9K on DraftKings though and the Washington lineup still looks fairly potent against LHP with only two in the projected lineup above a 20 K% vs LHP this season. Atlanta is a positive run environment as well.

Zac Gallen’s 26.3 K% is predicated on just a 9.3 SwStr%, while it’s hard to find many positives in an injury filled season. Perhaps that all of his non-FIP estimators are below his 4.34 is a source of optimism, though, again, they are all built on that questionable strikeout rate. He’s walked 10.3% of batters with a 16.3 HR/FB. However, he is facing the Rangers (78 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs RHP) without a DH with three of eight projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP this season and costs exactly $7.9K on either site.

As a pure SP2 option, well, that’s not easy either. The one guy who may have some upside is Jackson Kowar, who was shipped out in June, after striking out just two of 31 batters with five walks, allowing 10 runs over five innings. In 49 more innings at AAA after being sent down, he had a 5.14 ERA, but with a 34.1 K% (11.1 BB%). He struck out six of 24 Indians, walking three upon his return. He does have a 45 Future Value grade via Fangraphs and costs just $5.3K, while the Orioles have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP and seven of nine projected starters exceed a 24 K% vs RHP this season. The biggest remaining obstacle is a difficult park.

Volatility, Tough Matchups, But Lots of Upside at the Top of the Board Tonight

A 12 game Tuesday night slate gives us Gerrit Cole and then two very volatile pitchers who are above $10K on one site tonight, while another young pitcher in a very dangerous spot is the only other arm exceeding $9K on both sites. Cole struck out 15 of 25 Angels last time out and tops the board by more than five points with a 35.4 K%. His 2.73 ERA is nearly lock-step with all of his estimators, ranging from a 2.54 FIP to a 2.77 xERA. He is the top pitcher on the board by a substantial margin despite the very difficult matchup (Blue Jays 111 wRC+, 20.3 K%, 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP – 159 wRC+, 16.3 K%, 21.9 HR/FB last seven days). The environment is a bit trickier because while Yankee Stadium is power friendly, Statcast suggests it’s a negative run environment and LineupHQ tells us that Cole could get some umpiring assistance, but Weather Edge is currently expecting conditions to favor hitting. He is actually a better value and $500 cheaper on FanDuel.

Aaron Nola is the second most expensive pitcher on the board on DraftKings ($10.6K), but just $9K on FanDuel and you can understand the discrepancy when considering the uneven performance. Nola has struggled from a run prevention standpoint and six runs (two home runs) his last time out in Washington isn’t going to do much to change that perception, but maybe we can accept that it’s partially due to an inability to strand runners this season (68.3%) that probably isn’t sustainable. The one major change in his profile this year has been a drop in his ground ball rate by more than 10 points (39.7%), so perhaps, he’s been unable to generate double plays as often? With a 23.9 K-BB%, his worst estimator is just a 3.61 xERA that’s still nearly a run below his 4.54 ERA. Thus, he may be a great GPP play (especially on FD) with favorable ownership numbers in a neutral environment against an offense with just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP, though only three batters in the projected lineup for Milwaukee exceed a 21 K% vs RHP this season.

You could actually argue that not only has Blake Snell been the pitcher the Padres thought they were trading for, but much more over the last month, in which he’s struck out 41.4% (15.5 SwStr%), walking just nine and even completing seven innings three times. The one negatives are a 92.8 mph EV with a 31 GB%, which is less of a problem if only half the batters you face are putting the ball in play. His 30.3 K% on the season is second best on the board, while the walk rate is still an elevated 12.8% with 11.2% Barrels/BBE, resulting in a 5.11 xERA that’s not only well above his 4.31 ERA, but more than a run above any of his other estimators as well. In a negative run environment, the Angels lose the DH, which means no Ohtani (though that’s less of an issue against a lefty). Predominantly a right-handed lineup, the Angels have a 105 wRC+, 21.7 K% and 16.4 HR/FB vs LHP, but just a 52 wRC+, 26.8 K% and 9.8 HR/FB over the last seven days. Three of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs LHP. Snell has tremendous upside and costs just $9.2K on DraftKings, but expect lots of players to be on him during this heater against an Ohtani-less lineup.

Striking out 10 of the 24 Brewers he faces last time out, Logan Webb has eight straight quality starts with no more than two runs, completing seven innings in three of his last four. He’s now up to a 20.3 K-BB% for the season with a 60.8 K-BB%. His highest estimator is now just a 3.38 xERA. He is incredibly interesting, even at Coors, which should lower his ownership, for less than $10K. The Rockies have just a 75 wRC+ vs RHP, though only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 21 K% vs RHP. Volatility, tough matchups, but still lots of upside at the top of the board tonight.

Mike Yastrzemski (illness) scratched Monday

Yastrzemski was a late scratch from the Giants lineup for Monday’s matinee matchup against the Colorado Rockies due to a stomach illness. In his absence, Steven Duggar will join the starting lineup and bat eighth, while Kris Bryant will shift over to right field defensively as well.

Justin Upton (undisclosed) scratched Saturday

Upton was a last-minute scratch from the Angels lineup for Saturday’s matchup against the Texas Rangers due to a presently unknown reason. In his absence, Jared Walsh will join the lineup and handle the first base duties defensively, which will shift Phil Gosselin over to left field this evening.

Edward Olivares scratched Saturday

The Royals opted to make a lineup change for Saturday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox, and Olivares is ultimately the odd-man out with Salvador Perez moving to the designated hitter position. In his stead, Cam Gallagher joins the lineup and will handle the catching duties defensively.

Dallas Keuchel has been lit up for 12 runs over his last six innings and while he’s still generating a 55.4 GB%, his strikeout rate is down to 14% and he’s still allowing 9.6% Barrels/BBE this year. A 4.56 xFIP is his best estimator by more than a quarter of a run. Kansas City is a park that suppresses power, but is somewhat of a neutral to even positive run environment, depending on the weather, which seems to be moderate tonight and the Royals find themselves near the middle of the board at 4.35 implied runs, but that seems a bit light. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .340 wOBA with RHBs owning a .382 xwOBA against Keuchel this year. While the White Sox have a potentially dominant bullpen, they’ve been mostly middle of the board over the last month (4.34 ERA, 4.05 FIP) and Tony LaRussa is still letting his “veteran presence” face at least 22 batters in six straight starts without a quality one until he couldn’t pitch past the first inning last time out. There are the unfortunate circumstances that nobody in the projected lineup outside Sal Perez (177 wRC+. 373 ISO) is above a .150 ISO against LHP this year, but facing Keuchel should still be enough to boost many of them like Carlos Santana (96 wRC+, .331 xwOBA) and Michael Taylor (97 wRC+), projected to hit fifth, into a playable position tonight. Both Santana and Taylor are available for less than $3K on either site tonight.