DFS Alerts

Top Projected Offense Outside Coors Despite Struggling Against LHP

Tyler Alexander’s last start, against Toronto, was his best, striking out six of 26 batters over seven one run innings. He then followed up with a less impressive 2.2 inning relief outing. The starting experiment overall hasn’t been much of a success. Though his 4.11 ERA over seven of them is fairly average, non-FIP estimators are about a run higher with just a 17.4 K% (7.0 SwStr%) and a scolding 14.9% Barrels/BBE. Just five of his 15 barrels have left the yard. Tonight, he ventures out into the Great American Small Park and while the Reds do have just an 86 wRC+ vs LHP this season, they also have the second highest implied run line on the board (5.42). True, the Reds haven’t been great as a team offense against southpaws, but there are individual bats having great seasons against them, including Nick Castellanos (143 wRC+, .265 ISO), of course, Jonathan India (143 wRC+, .157 ISO) and two of the more interesting value plays on the board, within $500 of $3K on either site. Tyler Stephenson (116 wRC+, .172 ISO) is projected to bat second against Alexander (RHBs .349 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), while Kyle Farmer (124 wRC+, .253 ISO) is a bit further down the order, but has been extremely potent. Their team struggles against LHP are one thing, but at home, the Reds have a 111 wRC+ and 18.8 HR/FB. None of the batters projected to be in the lineup tonight drop below a .156 ISO at home this year (10 PA min.).

Batters from Either Side Above a .330 wOBA in This Pitcher's Career

Outside of the top two run environments on the slate, the most immediate thing that catches the eye from an offensive point of view is that Randy Dobnak is returning tonight. He has made five major league starts this year, the most recent back in June. While the 53.8 GB% was a positive, the 12.5 K%, 92.6 mph EV and 10.6% Barrels/BBE were not. He walked four of the 21 batters he faced in his most recent AAA rehab start, striking out just two. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Small sample, sure, but batters from either side of the plate also exceed a .330 wOBA against him in his career, which is nearly a full season of work. Considering the projected lineup for Tampa Bay includes just two batters below a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season, this is a great stacking spot. Despite the extremely negative run environment, the Rays have the fourth highest team total on the board (5.32 runs). Brandon Lowe (153 wRC+, .301 ISO) and Austin Meadows (144 wRC+, .295 ISO) have smashed RHP this year. The only issue here is that there aren’t really any cheap bats projected to hit in the top half of the order tonight, but that should be another factor that helps keep ownership low here.

Top Potential Run Environment Behind Coors Tonight

A quick stroll through Weather Edge projects one park to be significantly affected by weather and in a way that may greatly benefit hitters. While the park in Washington already starts off as a positive run environment, the potential boost tonight could make it a clear second only to Coors tonight, yet the teams that will play there tonight are outside the six teams with implied run lines above five. In fact, the home offense appears on the bottom half of the board with just a 4.21 team total. We may be dealing with some very undervalued bats here. For the visitors (4.79 runs), it’s really pretty simple. Sean Nolin is a 31 year-old rookie, who will be facing the Mets for the third time in his four starts and first time at home. While the overall results haven’t been terrible, just 23.1% of his contact has been on the ground this year. He’s also been held below 85 pitches in each start. That means plenty of the only bullpen in baseball with an ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA above five over the last 30 days. Believe it or not, Brandon Nimmo has been very successful against same-handed pitching this season (165 wRC+, .384 xwOBA), while Pete Alonso (141 wRC+, .333 ISO) and Javier Baez (135 wRC+, .281 ISO) have supplied the right-handed power.

For the home team, some of the samples against LHP aren’t very large, but among the seven projected starters with more than 10 PAs against southpaws this year, only one dips below a 110 wRC+ or .189 ISO (Alcides Escobar, of course). Rich Hill has 24 strikeouts over 32.1 innings and 137 batters faced as a Met. Eight of them came in his last start (five innings, 22 Nationals faced) with a 14.3 SwStr% that spikes his rate up to 7.8% as a Met. He has a perfectly symmetrical 4.83 ERA and FIP with his new team. For the season, his 4.11 ERA is below estimators tightly packed between 4.47 (SIERA) and 4.75 (xFIP). His ground ball rate is below 35% too though with RHBs owning a .333 wOBA (.328 xwOBA) against him this year. Lane Thomas (225 wRC+, .194 ISO), Yadiel Hernandez (154 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Carter Kieboom (110 wRC+, .205 ISO) are extremely cheap on either site.

High Risk Mid-Range and SP2 Arms

Much like the top of the board, the middle of the board doesn’t really contain any stand out options, but does include a few interesting arms in dangerous spots, along with less interesting arms in stronger spots and some lower priced SP2 options. Cal Quantrill seems to be another in a long line of well-developed pitching prospects in Cleveland. While a 1.43 ERA over his last seven starts is a less than half his 3.09 FIP and 3.53 xFIP, the Indians would have taken any of those numbers over a full season with the 26.2 K% he’s added over this stretch, along with a 51.4 GB% and 85 mph EV. Contact neutral season estimators are still near four and a half. While Fenway may turn off most players, remember that the Red Sox are missing key bats at the moment due to COVID with just two in the projected lineup below a 22.8 K% vs RHP this season and Quantrill costs within $300 of $7.5K on either site.

Huascar Ynoa has just a 22.9 K% in six starts since the start of May, including just one above 25%. However, he’s also significantly improved his contact profile, allowing just six of his 16 barrels over that span as well. It’s difficult to figure out what to trust here. He has a 2.90 ERA, 4.35 xERA and everything else is between three and four. There’s also Coors, but the Rockies have just a 76 wRC+ vs RHP (94 wRC+ at home), while Ynoa is just $7.4K on FanDuel.

A game of interest may be in Miami tonight. Kyle Gibson has produced a quality start in all five attempts for the Phillies (though he got bashed by Dodgers in a bulk relief outing), despite just a 6.5 K-BB% (7.1 SwStr%) with his heavy ground ball rate (55.6%) staying intact. The biggest change to his pitch usage seems to be more of an emphasis on his cutter, which has just a 15.7 SwStr% in August. Gibson is riding just a 10.3 K-BB% on the season now, but with a 52.1 GB% and 4.1% Barrels/BBE. However, what makes him viable here is that five of eight in the projected opposing lineup exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP this season. Gibson costs $8.1K on DraftKings. Jesus Luzardo shut out the Reds through six one-hit innings, striking out eight of 22 batters with a single walk last time out, his first time going beyond five innings or allowing less than three innings in a start since April. Ironically, the Reds torched him for a 95.8 mph EV on average when they did make contact, his worst average exit velocity in a start this year by four mph. Despite just a 20.6 K%, Luzardo does have a 13.9 SwStr% with Miami and 13.1 SwStr% on the year. The Phillies don’t strike out much against LHP, but Luzardo is an elite SwStr% for less than $8K.

Antonio Senzatela, John Means and Michael Wacha would not be worth a mention if any of them cost more than $7K on DraftKings. Senzatela is a contact prone (16.2 K%) ground ball generator (52%) with good control (5.0 BB%). He hasn’t been terrible. Non-FIP estimators are all within one-third of a run of his 4.18 ERA. He has at least five Ks in six of his last eight starts and quality starts in each of his last four at home. Means is in Yankee Stadium against a team with a 112 wRC+ vs LHP, but is coming off two consecutive quality starts. He has a 19 K-BB% over his last six starts, in which a 65.2 LOB% has pushed his 4.83 ERA well above his 4.08 xFIP. Wacha’s 15.6 K-BB% is fine. It’s the 9.8% Barrels/BBE that’s the problem, nearly matching his 5.70 ERA to his 5.91 xERA with non-contact including estimators barely above four (.345 BABIP, 18.4 HR/FB). He’s in a great park and the projected lineup for the Twins includes three batters who strike out at least one-third of the time vs RHP.

Also worth mentioning, Glenn Otto is not a highly regarded prospect (40 Future Value grade via Fangraphs, who struck out just 24.4% of batters over 30 innings at AAA for two different organizations this year, but 40.7% in 65.1 AA innings prior to that). He impressively struck out seven of 17 Astros in his major league debut, allowing just two hits without a walk, half his contact on the ground and an 84.2 mph EV. The only negatives were a 9.6 SwStr% and that two of his five non-ground balls were barrels. Fangraphs was still projecting him as a bullpen piece as late as May, due to a “limited repertoire”. He does cost just $5K on DK against a projected lineup with just two a single batter below a 25 K% vs RHP though.

Top of the Board Pitching Lacks Clarity on Friday

Despite a 14 game slate on Friday night, three pitchers reach the $10K price point on FanDuel, while a different one is the only one to reach exactly $10K on DraftKings tonight. The most expensive pitcher on the board is Shohei Ohtani on FanDuel ($10.8K). Although he still struck out seven of 20, it was the Orioles, of all teams, who broke up a run six straight quality starts with two runs or fewer since last facing the Yankees. The three home runs surrendered in Baltimore were Ohtani’s first multi-home run start of the season. Since walking four of nine Yankees, Ohtani has walked just four of his last 168 batters, dropping his season rate to 9.2%, increasing his K-BB above 20% and pushing his estimators no higher than a 3.66 SIERA. Ohtani gets the Rangers (78 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+ vs RHP) at home. Four of nine projected Texas bats exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP with only two below 22.7%. This is a high upside spot for Ohtani, while he’s a much better value for more than $2K less on DraftKings. Paying that higher price may be difficult though, when there are other pitchers who may be just as good tonight.

Freddy Peralta lasted two innings in an August 18th start, hitting the IL with a shoulder injury. Thankfully for the Brewers, it was short enough that he didn’t even need a rehab start, but having not gone beyond 43 pitches in over three weeks might limit him somewhat here. You can’t argue with 34 K% and 86.4 mph EV (5.4% Barrels/BBE), but the workload concerns, unless we hear otherwise, probably write him off as the second most expensive pitcher on the board ($10.2K FD).

Eight of Alex Manoah’s 14 starts have been quality starts. With a 27.9 K% (19.8 K-BB%) and 86.6 mph EV (6.9% Barrels/BBE), it’s hard to find a major flaw in his profile, even if his 3.15 ERA is more than half a run below all non-xERA estimators, the worst being a 3.95 xFIP. That said, is he really a $10K pitcher, especially in a neutral park against the A’s (103 wRC+ vs RHP, just two batters above a 21.1 K% vs RHP in the projected lineup)? He has four starts with at least eight strikeouts, but also five or less in half of them.

Age is just a number to Adam Wainwright. While we’re at it, here are some more numbers: eight straight quality starts with fewer than seven innings or more than two runs in just one each, a 16.9 K-BB% and 6.5% Barrels/BBE. A 79.3 LOB% bears some of the responsibility for a 2.97 ERA, but while none of his estimators are below three and a half, none are a full run above his ERA either. A neutral park in Milwaukee, the Brewers have an 88 wRC+ at home and 94 wRC+ vs RHP. Just three batters in the projected home lineup exceed a 21 K% vs RHP, but Wainwright may be your best quality start bet on the board. You’re going to get a heavy workload out of him as the fifth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, though he may not be the best value as the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings.

The last pitcher to mention and only other one on the slate above $9K on both sites, is Nathan Eovaldi, who is the second most expensive arm on DraftKings ($9.8K). Evovaldi has overcome a rough patch following the break with just six runs allowed (five earned) over his last 24.1 innings, striking out 30 of 95 batters with just two walks. His 3.71 ERA is now within one-quarter of a run of all non-FIP estimators, while a contact profile that includes just 6.4% Barrels/BBE certainly helps. While Fenway is a positive run environment, Cleveland has an 88 wRC+ on the road, 90 wRC+ vs RHP and half the projected lineup exceeds a 30 K% vs RHP this year. Considering the potential upside in the opposing lineup, Eovaldi has a chance to be the top pitcher on the board tonight and a great value for $9.1K on FanDuel.

Offensive Alternatives to a Coors Dominant Slate

The difficulty on tonight’s five game slate will be in differentiating in GPPs from Coors where the Braves (6.93) and Rockies (5.57) have team totals a run clear of any other offense, which includes two of the more negative run environments in baseball (the Trop & Citi Field), the wind blowing in at Wrigley and one of the most power suppressive parks in baseball in Kansas City. Considering Chi Chi Gonzalez has surrendered a .397 wOBA and .416 xwOBA to RHBs and the Atlanta lineup is predominantly right-handed, while LHBs have a .343 wOBA, .355 xwOBA against him also, the top bats on the slate are mostly Braves, along with Connor Joe (111 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP) and C.J. Cron (123 wRC+, .255 ISO) on the other side. Your value plays here are Jorge Soler at $4K on DraftKings and probably still the entire middle of the Atlanta order for $3.7K or less on FanDuel, along with Connor Joe ($3.1K).

If we’re looking for alternative angles here, while a negative weather boost turns Wrigley into a negative run environment this year, it’s still not so negative that it takes bats off the board against a pitcher (Mitch Keller) who has allowed a .370 or better wOBA to batters from either side of the plate this year. Believe it or not, the top half of the Cubs’ order remains pretty strong against RHP with Rafael Ortega (147 wRC+, .209 ISO), Frank Schwindel (116 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Patrick Wisdom (129 wRC+, .313 ISO). Alternatively, Ben Gamel (108 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Wilmer Difo (111 wRC+, .128 ISO) are projected to top the Pittsburgh order, facing a pitcher, Keegan Thompson, who has walked four of the 33 batters he’s faced with just two strikeouts (4.4 SwStr%) in his two starts. Seven runs have crossed the board in six innings with a 90 mph EV and significant drop in velocity from his relief outings. LHBs have a .333 wOBA and .368 xwOBA against Thompson overall this year. The Chicago bullpen also has a 6.77 ERA and 5.41 FIP over the last 30 days. Gamel and Difo each cost $2.5K or less on either site. A three man Pittsburgh stack that includes Bryan Reynolds (135 wRC+, .217 ISO) lets you do whatever else you want.

Sandy Alcantara has been confirmed for the Marlins. While he’s been great recently, LHBs have been average against him (.298 wOBA, .306 xwOBA) this year, while the projected Mets’ lineup does have a few who have handled RHP well this year in Brandon Nimmo (125 wRC+, .131 ISO), Jonathan Villar (115 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Michael Conforto (120 wRC+, .200 ISO). All three have at least a 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days, cost less than $4K on DraftKings and cost less than $3K on FanDuel.

Top Arms and a Couple of Pitchers with Recent Improvement

Depending on what Don Mattingly eventually decides to do at his leisure (no hurry Donny), there are either one or two $10K pitchers on tonight’s five game slate. Twenty starts into his career, Shane McClanahan has a 20.4 K-BB% resulting in a matching 3.59 ERA and SIERA. However, issues with the contact profile (91.3 mph EV) drive his xERA up to 4.59. He’s been extremely lucky to have just three of 12 barrels (14.8%) leave the yard over his last five starts. He costs exactly $10.1K on either site and factors in his favor include a very negative controlled run environment in the dome and faces a Boston team depleted by COVID, though they still have several of their most potent RH bats available. There are three batters in the projected Boston lineup above a 28 K% vs LHP this season.

Should the Marlins decide to simply push everyone back a day and go with Zach Thompson, McClanahan is the likely the top pitcher on the board. Should the Marlins decide to go with Sandy Alcantara, he’d be the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($10.5K), but more than $2K less on DraftKings and quite possibly the top pitcher on the board. Outside of getting rocked for 10 runs in Colorado, Sandy Alcantara has thrown at least seven innings with at least seven strikeouts and two runs or less in five of his last six starts. All estimators are above his 3.27 ERA, but only his 3.86 SIERA by more than half a run. He, too, should be in a negative run environment at City Field against a Mets’ offense with a 93 wRC+ vs RHP. There is some power without a lot of strikeouts in this lineup though.

There are two additional pitchers of interest on this board, both coming on in recent starts. In the month of August, Triston McKenzie started four games, striking out 28 of 98 batters, allowing six runs over 28 innings with just two walks. McKenzie has just a 4.3 BB% in eight games since returning, cutting his Barrels/BBE down to 7% too. Estimators are all below his 4.83 ERA, though only his xERA is below four (3.97) on the season. Kansas City is probably the least pitcher friendly park among these four pitchers, but it does suppress power and the Royals have just an 84 wRC+ vs RHP, while five of nine projected batters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP this season. McKenzie is within $3K of $9K on either site and could be a top value if he continues on his recent path of newfound success.

Despite poor surface results, you could see some signs in recent starts that Carlos Carrasco might be starting to round into form. He does have a 13.1 SwStr% through six starts and experienced a velocity bump in his last start. He’s only stranded 55.6% of runners and has allowed six barrels in 100 plate appearances, but just one over his last two starts. A 4.14 xERA is his highest non-FIP estimator. Carrasco is in a great spot, facing the Marlins (88 wRC+ vs RHP) at home. The projected lineup includes five batters above a 23 K% vs RHP. Carrasco is in the middle of the board at $8K on DraftKings, but just $6.8K on FanDuel. Carrasco worked through seven innings, though just 78 pitches in each of his last two starts, but is probably a strong bet for a quality start tonight.

Matt Duffy (neck) scratched Wednesday

Duffy has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs lineup for Wednesday night’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to neck stiffness. In his absence, Andrew Romine will handle the defensive responsibilities at third base and bat ninth in the order this evening.

Cardinals-Reds postponed due to inclement weather Tuesday

Monday’s matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds has been postponed due to inclement weather and will rescheduled as a split doubleheader tomorrow. The first game will be the rescheduled contest from tonight and will begin at 1:10pm ET, while Game 2 will be at 6:40pm ET.

Batters From Either Side Above a .350 wOBA & xwOBA Against This Pitcher

After an historic winning streak, the Yankees have now lost three games in a row, but they’re in a great spot to turn things around tonight. Fortune seems to be smiling on the Yankees as Shohei Ohtani will be replaced by Jaime Barria tonight, who has an ERA and estimators above five with just a 4.0 K-BB%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Barria this year. One of the top values in the Yankee lineup is Anthony Rizzo (98 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP), who has just a 50 wRC+ over the last month, but joins DJ LeMahieu (101 wRC+, .110 ISO) and Luke Voit (106 wRC+, .207 ISO) in costing below $4K on DraftKings tonight. LeMahieu is the only batter in the projected lineup below a .175 ISO vs RHP this season. More expensively, Giancarlo Stanton (135 wRC+, .240 ISO) is on one of his hot streaks with a 187 wRC+ in the month of August with Aaron Judge (143 wRC+, .235 ISO) not far behind (176 wRC+ last 30 days). A 5.55 run team total for the Yankees is third highest on the board.

Top Projected Lineup Can Be Stacked Fairly Cheaply

Byron Buxton hasn’t been on the field nearly enough this season, but when he has, he as raked. Buxton has a 207 wRC+ and .419 ISO vs same-handed pitching this season and is facing a pitcher with a reverse split this year. RHBs have a .361 wOBA (.368 xwOBA) against Zach Davies this year and LHBs haven’t done much worse (.332/.360). Two more things that make Buxton and extremely attractive lineup add tonight are that the Twins have the fourth highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.12) and Buxton costs just $3.2K on DraftKings. Even better, each of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season and none cost more than $4.1K on DraftKings, making the Twins perhaps the ideal stack today. Things aren’t much more difficult on FanDuel, where Buxton and Jorge Polanco (129 wRC+, .223 ISO) are the only two batters in the projected lineup exceeding $3.3K. Prospective leadoff man, Luis Arraez (120 wRC+) can be had for $3K or less on either site. Although Zach Davies has a 26.1 K% over his last seven starts, he does so with just a 10.4 SwStr%, which is still more than a point improvement on his season rate. He also has a 6.88 ERA and 6.46 FIP with 12 home runs and 14 barrels (13.9%) over this span. Additionally, Davies is backed by a bullpen with the second worst ERA (7.33) and FIP (5.92) in the majors over the last 30 days.

Top Offense Set to Smash Subpar Pitching Again Tonight

We don’t yet have team totals for a couple of games (in Tampa Bay and Kansas City), due to unconfirmed starting pitchers, but no matter what, the Blue Jays are going to be the top projected offense again at 6.27 implied runs. Only the White Sox (6.06) come within three-quarters of a run and only two additional teams (Yankees, Twins) are even above five. Once again, the Jays are dealing with a sub-standard starting pitcher in front of a terrible bullpen. Keegan Akin not only threw his first quality start of the season last time out, but his seven innings against the Angels was only the second time he’d recorded a sixth inning out all season. While all non-DRA estimators are at least two runs below his ERA, that’s not saying much because they’re all still above five as well. Akin has allowed 9.9% Barrels/BBE. Toronto is projected to stack up entirely from the right side and batters from that side of the plate have a .381 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against Akin this year. After they’re done pounding him, the bullpen with the worst ERA (7.89) and FIP (5.97) in baseball over the last 30 days will take over. The Baltimore pen is one of just two in the majors exceeding a five FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last month as well. We can consider George Springer (170 wRC+, .280 ISO vs LHP this season), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (135 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (193 wRC+, .366 ISO) among the top batters on the board tonight with Alejandro Kirk (184 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Kevin Smith (135 wRC+, .250 ISO) the affordable access to lineup with the former costing just $2.1K on FD and the latter $2.2K on DK.

The other bullpen above a five FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last month? That’s Washington and they start Patrick Corbin against the Phillies. A spike in velocity has led to a 25 K% and 14 SwStr% for him over the last month, but has not helped his run prevention efforts at all. Corbin has allowed at least four runs in seven of his last eight starts and 19 home runs over his last 65.1 innings (11.3% Barrels/BBE). His average exit velocity has been above 91.5 mph in three of his last four starts. RHBs have a .378 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season, making every RHB in the Philadelphia lineup playable with special emphasis on Andrew McCutchen (178 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP) for just $2.7K on FanDuel. The only drawback here is the weather. Kevin currently has this game graded Orange/Yellow.

Board Contains Several Low Priced, High Upside Arms

Tuesday night’s board carries a number of interesting lower priced arms, several below $8K, in SP2 range, on DraftKings. We can start with the rejuvenated Blake Snell. While nothing else is seemingly working for the Padres, is this finally the Blake Snell they thought they were trading for? In five August starts, Snell has struck out 37.9% of batters faced (15 SwStr%) with just 10 walks (four over his last three starts), allowing just seven runs (four home runs) with a 2.12 ERA and estimators below three. It’s his first three start stretch since April without a start with at least three walks. He’s still allowed 12.9% Barrels/BBE in August (11.3% on the year), but a K-BB near 30% significantly reduces the damage. On the season, a 5.36 xERA is his only estimator above a 4.58 ERA. The Diamondbacks still carry many of the RH bats that have given them a 102 wRC+ vs LHP this season and only two projected starters for Arizona exceed a 17.7 K% vs LHP this season (both also above 29%), but if Snell is going to continue to pitch like this, he’s severely underpriced at just $7.7K on DraftKings.

Tarik Skubal looked like he was tiring around the break, but he’s allowed just four runs his last 22.2 innings and even struck out 10 last time out (18.8 SwStr%) behind a velocity spike. Statcast still doesn’t believe in him (90.5 mph EV, 12.8% Barrels/BBE, 5.36 xERA) and the FIP is a bit high (4.88, 19.2 HR/FB), but more contact neutral estimators line up within one-third of a run of his 4.01 ERA. The matchup against Oakland is not ideal (102 wRC+ vs LHP with just two in the projected lineup above a 20 K% vs LHP), but if Skubal’s recent strikeout rate boost is real, he’s underpriced too at $7.4K on DraftKings.

Some more quick hits: Charlie Morton is on a 13 start stretch with a 31.4 K% (24.7 K-BB%), allowing just seven home runs and 4.3% Barrels/BBE, but he faces the Dodgers (110 wRC+ vs RHP) in Los Angeles and carries a price tag of at least $8.9K on either site. The matchup could have a pitcher performing like a Cy Young candidate in single digit ownership though. Outside striking out 10 Orioles in his first August start, Jameson Taillon hasn’t struck out more than five since his first start of July (nine starts), but is running a 2.43 ERA that’s nearly half his xFIP (5.17), due to a .243 BABIP, 78.8 LOB% and 9.3 HR/FB during this run. For the season, a 4.18 ERA actually runs very closely to a 4.27 SIERA and 3.97 xERA. And that’s fine in an SP2 spot ($7.3K DK) against a projected lineup that includes just two batters below a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year. John Gant had walked just two of 36 batters for the Twins in relief, but now four of 32, though with seven strikeouts over two starts. Of course, the 3.4 K-BB% that includes a 15 BB% has been an insurmountable issue for him, though his 4.00 ERA still runs more than a run below non-FIP estimators. However, the keys here are $5.8K on DK and just two batters in the projected Cubs lineup with more than 3 PAs below a 23 K% vs RHP this year. Jordan Lyles has produced 10 quality starts this year and costs $5.2K on DK against the Rockies (68 wRC+ on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP).

Recent Results Under-Value Top Arm Tonight

We still don’t know all the pitchers on tonight’s 14 game slate, but we do know that Walker Buehler is the only one above $10K on both sites, while three more reach that price point on either FanDuel or DraftKings, but not both. Buehler is a leading Cy Young candidate, having remedied early season issues with the contact profile on a fastball with reduced velocity and a mid-season decreased strikeout rate. Buehler is running a 30.3 K% over his last 13 starts with just nine barrels (3.7%) over his last 15 starts. Meanwhile, he’s failed to produce a quality start just three times this season. He gets a dangerous Atlanta lineup (101 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP) at home, though only two projected batters have a strikeout rate below 23% vs RHP this year. Buehler is fine here, but may not be the top pitcher or value on the slate.

The second most expensive price tag on the board belongs to Brandon Woodruff ($10.6K FD). He bounced back from his worst start of the season (and a subpar one before that too) by striking out 10 of 22 Reds over six shutout innings. Strangely, he’s exceed 100 pitches in seven of his last 10 starts, while being pulled with no more than 86 in his other three, running just five quality starts over this span. He carries tremendous upside with a 29.9 K%, 6.3 BB% and just 4.8% Barrels/BBE (85.4 mph EV). Woodruff’s worst estimator is a 3.29 SIERA. Also in his favor, the front of the Milwaukee bullpen (Hader, Williams, Boxberger) have all pitched back to back days, which may force Counsel to push Woodruff an inning or so further tonight. While he gets a park upgrade, a very tough matchup somewhat neutralizes that. The Giants have a 117 wRC+ at home and 106 wRC+ with a 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP, though only two in this projected lineup are below a 23 K% vs RHP too.

Lucas Giolito costs $10.2K on FD. It’s been a volatile ride to get there, but Giolito’s 3.68 ERA is an exact replica of his xFIP. In fact, a 3.36 xERA is his only estimator more than one-fifth of a run removed from his ERA. Over his last three starts, Giolito has struck out 22 of 70 batters with a 22.2 SwStr%, all against AL East contenders and has quality starts in six of his last eight attempts. Weather Edge currently suggests a significant offensive boost in Chicago tonight, but Giolito otherwise has a great matchup. The Pirates have an 82 wRC+ and board low 9.4 HR/FB vs RHP this season. Five of nine projected batters exceed a 24 K% vs RHP. Giolito may be the top value among the $10K pitchers on FanDuel and an even better one for just $8.8K on DraftKings.

Allowing four runs in four of his last seven starts (4.43 ERA), it would seem Lance McCullers Jr. has been struggling since the break, but a 28.6 K% (19.2 K-BB%), 56.1 GB% and 87.3 mph EV with just 4.6% Barrels/BBE during this stretch implies just the opposite. It’s a .337 BABIP and 20 HR/FB that’s done him in with all five of his barrels leaving the yard. All of McCullers’ season estimators are below four with a 3.96 SIERA the only one more than half a run above his 3.32 ERA. Pitching in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight, McCullers faces an offense with just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP with four batters in the projected lineup exceeding a 29 K% vs RHP. Recent results have McCullers appearing severely under-valued here, especially for just $9.2K on FanDuel, where he should probably be considered the top value on the board. Heck, he may be the top pitcher on the board tonight overall.

Cheap Exposure to Tonight's Top Offenses

For those paying top price for pitching tonight, it’s going to be difficult to employ bats in top lineups like the Blue Jays and Dodgers tonight, but there are actually a couple of bats who may affordably give players some exposure to these top lineups. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against the home run prone Drew Smyly this year and most of this lineup is fairly expensive. However, projected to bat somewhere in the middle of this lineup is one of their strongest bats against southpaws this year, A.J. Pollock (137 wRC+, .211 ISO) at the very reasonable price of $3.6K on DraftKings and $500 less on FanDuel. That’s not exactly punt territory, but it’s exposure to a strong middle of the lineup bat in one the top projected lineups tonight at a low cost. For a Toronto team that’s going to be facing one of the worst bullpens in the league for the majority of it’s game against the Orioles, we are looking at a catching punt. Alejandro Kirk (86 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP) has a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall and costs just $2.1K on FanDuel tonight. Corey Dickerson (106 wRC+, 150 ISO) is also a potential middle of the order bat, who costs $3K or less on either site.