DFS Alerts

A Top Bat, a Value Bat and a Weather Boost

It’s pretty easy to simply list the top offenses by team run totals and just tell you to play them and the Phillies are second best at 5.65 runs, behind (but far behind) only the Yankees. As such, Bryce Harper (193 wRC+, .382 ISO vs RHP this year) is probably the top non-Yankee bat on the board against Adian Sampson’s career .340 vs LHBs (it’s even worse vs RHBs – .408), but the projected Philadelphia lineup also gives you the gift of Brad Miller (130 wRC+, .258 ISO) who costs just $3.6K on DK and $2.4K on FanDuel. While nobody else in the projected Philadelphia lineup exceeds a 110 wRC+ or .180 ISO vs RHP or costs as little (except for Freddy Galvis on FanDuel), there may not be a bad play in this lineup considering the circumstances. In addition to Sampson and the Chicago pen (5.14 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.24 xFIP last 30 days), Philadelphia might be the most positive run environment on the board with a nice little weather assist, according to Weather Edge.

This Offense Has Just a 79 wRC+ in September, But Everything Else Favors Them Tonight

Despite winning only a few games in the month of September so far and having just a 79 team wRC+ for the month, the Yankees not only have the top implied run line on the board (6.39), but the next closest team is the Phillies at 5.65. Let’s be honest though, this is much more about Baltimore pitching and while we can start with Alex Wells (22.2 innings with a 15.2 K%, 5.4 K-BB%, 27.7 GB% and 91.7 mph EV) and note that the Yankees have a 107 wRC+ vs LHP and actually get a park upgrade tonight, it really comes down to some atrocities in the Baltimore bullpen (though their defense is terrible too). Over the last 30 days, the entire bullpen has a combined 7.09 ERA that’s more than a run and a half more than the next worst team, backed by a 5.69 FIP and 5.34 xFIP that are also the worst in baseball. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against Wells so far. This is an absolute smash spot for Yankee bats and despite the 79 wRC+ in September, they did score some runs over the weekend and yesterday afternoon against the Twins. Every batter in the projected lineup has at least a 97 wRC+ vs LHP this year, though only four exceed a .180 ISO. In fact, those four (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, and Kyle Higashioka) all exceed a .215 ISO and 120 wRC+ vs LHP this year and one of those things is not like the others. Say hello to your punt catcher tonight, Kyle Higashioka (122 wRC+, .315 ISO vs LHP this year), costing the minimum on FanDuel. One caveat for Gallo (122 wRC+, .230 ISO) is that Wells has held the few LHBs he’s faced to a .270 wOBA, .304 xwOBA thus far.

Middle or Bottom of the Board Arms With Increased Ks, But Run Prevention Issues

While there’s a lot to work with at the top of the board, which includes 25% of tonight’s pitchers costing at least $9K on both sites, there’s really not much to be encouraged about below that. If you’re looking for a pitcher who can stand alone, you should probably pay the $9K+. Jon Gray has a 31.7 K% over his last five starts, but with just a 35.7 GB%, .463 BABIP and 64.5 LOB%. That particular combination would seem nearly impossible, but he also has a 92.2 mph EV over that span. You would figure his line drive rate would have to be sky high, but it’s just 21.4% over this span. There’s no change in pitch mix or velocity, but something strange is going on, which sort of makes you optimistic, but he’s in a rough spot in a difficult park in Atlanta. However, he is suddenly showing more strikeout upside for less than $8.5K and six of eight projected Atlanta bats have a 22.9 K% or higher vs RHP.

Injuries have derailed Tony Gonsolin’s season. His 16.3 BB% over just 38.2 innings is over four times what it was last year (4.0%). The good news is that his velocity was up last time out, though he struck out just three of 14 Cardinals and he still has a 26.2 K% on the year. You’re probably only getting two trips through the order with him, but the Diamondbacks have a 78 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs RHP and just three batters in their projected lineup have struck out less than 22.4% vs RHP this year. Gonsolin costs less than $8K.

If you want to get really ugly (and ugly with upside potential often wins GPPs), let’s take a look at the matchup in a potentially weather aided (Weather Edge) positive run environment in Washington. The first positive is a pitcher friendly umpire, but in a reversal of fortune, Erick Fedde has a 6.10 ERA over his last four starts with a 3.62 xFIP. He has a 23.2 K-BB% over this span, but a .383 BABIP, 57.7 LOB% and 20 HR/FB with five of his seven barrels (10.8%) leaving the yard. Costing less than $7K on DraftKIngs, Fedde could be facing a Miami lineup where six batters have at least a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year. On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has struck out eight in two of his last three starts and has a very impressive 14.6 SwStr% in 39.2 innings for the Marlins. Those are the positives. The 13.1% walk rate would be a negative, generating estimators above five, but you can see some positive signs and he costs just $6.3K on FanDuel. Unfortunately, only two batters in the projected Washington lineup exceed a 19 K% vs LHP, but we’re also dealing with only two sample sizes above 75 PAs this year. Fedde and Luzardo are reasonable SP2 candidates if you want more offense in your lineup.

Hamstring Concerns For Tonight's Top Arms

Four pitchers reach the $10K price point on a 12 game Tuesday night slate with Gerrit Cole the only one to do so on both sites. Cole left his last start against the Blue Jays with some hamstring tightness after striking out just two of 18 batters with as many walks and a home run,, but prior to that he had been dominant, striking out 39 of 96 batters with just two runs allowed over 24.2 innings. His 2.78 ERA fits perfectly into estimators ranging from a 2.65 FIP to a 2.91 xERA and his 34.7 K% is the top strikeout rate on the board by more than six points. Without the hamstring concerns, he’s the top pitcher on the board in Baltimore with seven batters in the projected opposing lineup exceeding a 24 K% vs RHP. However, the hamstring issue may be enough of a concern to pull him back slightly towards the pack and make players consider going under on him in GPPs.

The second most expensive pitcher on the board, Lucas Giolito is within $200 of $10K on either site and he also returns from a two week IL stint due to, guess what…a hamstring injury. If Cole were to be compromised and Giolito prove fully healthy and on a normal workload, he could challenge for the top spot tonight. Giolito will occasionally throw in a stinker and that’s what happened last time out against the Pirates, walking four of 20 batters and failing to complete five innings (possibly due to the hamstring issue). None the less, his season numbers remain strong with a 20.8 K-BB% and while only one-third of his contact has been on the ground, he’s only allowed 7.1% Barrels/BBE. A 3.69 ERA is directly in line with a 3.70 SIERA with a 3.36 xERA being his only estimator lower. David Fletcher is the only batter in the projected lineup facing Giolito with a strikeout rate below 22.7%. Considering that the White Sox don’t need to rush Giolito back with the AL Central locked up, we could probably be less concerned about his health, but also more concerned about how conservative they’ll be with his workload.

Nathan Eovaldi is exactly $10K on FD, but $400 less on DK, while Franke Montas $10K on DK, but $700 less on FD. We bunch these pitchers together because they’ve both been on fire, are in favorable road spots and have no injury concerns. Eovaldi has allowed nine of his 14 home runs over his last eight starts (though none last time out), but also has a 29.8 K% (25.4 K-BB%) over his last 11 starts, which the Red Sox and daily fantasy players will take. His 3.57 ERA this season is within a quarter run of all non-FIP estimators. The projected Seattle lineup has three batters above a 29 K% vs RHP this season. This is also a massive park upgrade against an offense with just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP. Montas has not continued to strike out batters at a ridiculous rate, but has struck out at least one-quarter of the batters he’s faced in 11 straight starts, failing to produce a quality start just once over this stretch. In fact, he’s recorded seventh inning outs in four straight starts, completing seven innings with a single run or less in three of them. His 3.57 ERA this season is below all non-FIP estimators, though not reach four. Five batters in the projected lineup for the Royals exceed a 27 K% vs RHP. With Cole & Giolito potentially compromised, Eovaldi and Montas (both pitching for teams in the Wild Card hunt) might be the best pitchers on the board.

Jose Berrios and Marcus Stroman are the only other two pitchers on the board to cost at least $9K on both sites. On the season, Jose Berrios has a 3.52 ERA, 3.51 FIP and 3.63 xFIP. In eight starts with the Blue Jays: 3.63/3.34/3.76. That seems remarkably consistent, despite being remarkably inconsistent from start to start. He has struck out 32 of his last 96 though, to bring his season strikeout rate up to 26%, but he’s done this facing predominantly right-handed lineups while a large platoon split that the Rays may be able to better exploit, has been one of his biggest issues. LHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and .200 ISO against Berrios this year and the Rays can nearly fill a lineup with them, though just three of the projected nine have a strikeout rate below 23.7% against RHP this year. Stroman has four quality starts in his last five attempts and while his 2.87 ERA is below all of his estimators this season, only his xERA (4.17) is above four. He has a career low ground ball rate and career high strikeout rate, but that’s still half his contact on the ground (50.5%) with a near average strikeout rate (21.6%). He pitches against a below average offense (89 wRC+ vs RHP) in a favorable park, but with just three batters in the projected opposing lineup exceeding a 21 K% vs RHP, Stroman might lack the upside necessary for the price.

This Offense Has a 173 wRC+ Over the Last Week

The Blue Jays are not one of the two teams with a run total above five tonight, but they’re next best at 4.76 and a full half run against the fourth highest team run total on the board. One might consider this total conservative considering what they did to Baltimore pitching this weekend, but you can understand it facing a top bullpen and defense tonight. Behind an opener, Ryan Yarbrough is expected to get most of the innings and while he’s generally a great contact manager (84.3 mph EV) with elite control, he’s struck out just seven of the last 74 batters he’s faced with just an 18.3 K% on the year and has had issues with RHBs (.334 wOBA, .332 xwOBA). That’s incredibly bad news against this predominantly RH lineup. In fact, the Blue Jays are projected to stack entirely right-handed against Yarbrough tonight with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer and Bo Bichette all exceeding a 140 wRC+ and .200 ISO against southpaws this year. Hernandez (196 wRC+, .370 ISO) may be the best bat in the league against lefties this year, while Kirk (176 wRC+, .304 ISO) is the value bat on FanDuel for less than $3K. The caveat here is that the Rays are pretty sharp and likely to limit Yarbrough’s workload here, but the Jays hit RHP nearly as well. Toronto has an absurd 173 team wRC+ over the last seven days.

While Paolo Espino’s strikeout rate has spiked recently (25 of last 81 batters), he’s still allowed 11 runs over his last 19.2 innings with just one-third of his contact on the ground. While he struck out seven in his last start, his velocity plummeted, while allowing five runs. Aside from exceptional control (4.8 BB%), the rest of his profile is unremarkable with a 20.4 K% and 11.6% Barrels/BBE. Contact neutral estimators are in the lower fours with a 4.71 xERA that’s 0.36 points above his ERA. Statcast raises both a .310 wOBA against LHBs and .327 wOBA against RHBs between 15-20 points each in xwOBA and while the Marlins have just a 3.75 run team total without many strong bats against RHP, they do have a lot of cheap bats and a couple of hot ones. Bryan De La Cruz (124 wRC+ vs RHP) and Jesus Sanchez (108 wRC+, .233 ISO) have given the Marlins some hope for the future. They are the only two bats in the projected lineup exceeding a 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days and neither costs more than $3K on either site. A small stack at the top of the lineup that also includes Jazz Chisholm (105 wRC+, .181 ISO) wouldn’t cost much at all, allowing players to pay up for pitching or even add another higher priced stack. Other attractive elements are that Washington is probably the most positive run environment on the board and the bullpen behind Espino has an ERA, FIP and xFIP above five over the last 30 days.

The Starter Isn't Terrible, But the Bullpen Is

Despite a lack of attractive pitching options below the top priced arms there are just two teams on a seven game board above five implied runs tonight (Astros, Dodgers). That does make some sense as some of the pitching issues have more to do with workload than overall performance. Zac Gallen has struggled through injuries this season and while Statcast believes he’s been 42 points of wOBA better against LHBs than he’s been, the .315 wOBA for RHBs is confirmed (.322 xwOBA). That, in addition to a bullpen with a 4.95 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 5.77 xFIP and 5.40 SIERA over the last 30 days behind him may make Mookie Betts (145 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP this season) the top bat on the board with the Turner brothers, Trea (110 wRC+, .158 ISO) & Justin (126 wRC+, .167 ISO), who aren’t really brothers, not incredibly far behind. The bad news is that there are not a lot of bargains in this lineup, but Gavin Lux (104 wRC+, .151 ISO) could serve as cheap exposure to a top lineup for $2.5K or less on either site.

Exploring Every Lower Priced Pitching Option

While 10 of 14 pitchers on a seven game slate cost less than $9K on at least one site tonight, we’re dealing with two opener situations. Ryan Yarbrough has been mentioned as getting the bulk of the innings against the Blue Jays, but he’s probably in no hurry to get in there considering what the Blue Jays did in Baltimore this weekend and that he’s struck out just seven of the last 74 batters he’s faced. Spencer Howard basically served as an opener last time out and never really exceeds a single time through the order anyway, so that’s half the board gone already if you’re considering a lower priced arm. The remaining seven are sort of difficult to separate, so we’ll quickly hit on all of them.

Alek Manoah has collected just two quality starts over his last five attempts, striking out more than five just once (18.3 K%, 9.0 SwStr%). Velocity has been trending down slightly, and his only season estimator remaining below four is a 3.63 xERA (86.9 mph EV) that’s very much in line with a 3.71 ERA. The projected Tampa Bay lineup does include six batters exceeding a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season though. Earlier in the year, we were all just waiting for Eduardo Rodriguez’s ERA to catch up with estimators more than two runs lower and while the 6.20 ERA over his last four starts also comes with much lower estimators, this time those estimators are still well above four, entirely due to a low strikeout rate (16.1%). You could certainly understand a pitcher who missed all of 2020 due to COVID induced cardiomyopathy tiring late in a long season, but his velocity is fine as is his walk rate and exit velocity. In fact, he’s had an above average SwStr% in each of his last two starts as well, so let’s go back to those season estimators around three and a half with a .358 BABIP and 66.9 LOB%. E-Rod gets a park upgrade and five of nine projected Mariners exceed a 23 K% vs LHP.

Over his last six starts, Jake Odorizzi has allowed just 10 runs with a near average 21.4 K%, resulting in a 2.90 ERA, but 3.78 FIP (7.7 HR/FB) and 4.75 xFIP (83.8 LOB%). The other problem is that while he’s completed five innings in all five, he hasn’t finished six innings in any. In fact, he’s only done that twice this year. Unfortunate because five batters in the Texas projected lineup strike out at least a quarter of the time against RHP, but Odorizzi costs more than $7.5K on either site. Rich Hill has shown some signs of life lately, striking out 20 of his last 68 with a 14.7 SwStr%, while allowing just three runs in 17 innings, but the caveat is that this was all against the Marlins and Nationals. Estimators hover around four and a half, a bit more than half a run above his 3.82 ERA and the Cardinals have hit LHP well (110 wRC+ vs LHP). Zac Gallen’s 26.8 K% is a full point below his career average, but still above league average. However, his 9.3 SwStr% is two points below his career average, which is hopefully the byproduct of an injury marred season. He’s allowed 15 home runs (15.5 HR/FB), but barrels at a below average rate (7.8%). Estimators are all below his 4.32 ERA, but only his DRA (3.62) by more than half a run. He faces the Dodgers though.

The remaining two are Paolo Espino and Logan Gilbert. Paolo Espino has struck out 25 of his last 81 batters, walking just four, but still allowed 11 runs over 19.2 innings with just one-third of his contact on the ground. While he struck out seven in his last start, his velocity plummeted, while allowing five runs. Aside from exceptional control (4.8 BB%), the rest of his profile is unremarkable with a 20.4 K% and 11.6% Barrels/BBE. Contact neutral estimators are in the lower fours with a 4.71 xERA that’s 0.36 points above his ERA. However, he costs just $6.1K on DraftKings and the projected lineup for the Marlins includes four batters above a 27 K% vs RHP. The strikeout rate is down to 21% over his last five starts (26% on the season), but Gilbert has allowed just two runs over 9.1 innings against the Astros in his last two starts with just a 20 GB%, but 16.3 SwStr%. With a 20.5 K-BB%, a 5.10 ERA is the product of a 65.8 LOB%. His worst estimator is a 4.05 xFIP. The Red Sox have a 108 wRC+ vs RHP with the projected lineup including a combination of high and low strikeout rates, but Gilbert pitchers in a very pitcher friendly park and costs $7K or less. To sum all of this up, if you’re not paying up for Sandy Alcantara tonight…good luck.

Heavy Workloads & Strikeout Upside, But Only One Pitcher Combines Both

Considering Clayton Kershaw threw his last major league pitch prior to the All-Star break and his lone rehab outing lasted just three batters (three strikeouts), so expectations should be low here. That’s unfortunate, considering that he’s the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites tonight, though the Arizona lineup he’ll likely face is sneaky low upside and contact prone anyway. The second most expensive pitcher on either site, above $10K on FanDuel, but $1K less on DraftKings, is the recently dominant Sandy Alcantara. He missed a start near the end of July, then threw seven shutout innings, striking out 10 Yankees on two hits in his first game back, but was hammered for 10 runs in Colorado next time out. Over six starts since then, he’s allowed more than two runs just once with a 33.7 K% (29.6 K-BB%), recording seventh inning outs each time. His velocity has even ticked up. While Alcantara’s ERA is below all of his estimators, none are more than half a run higher. He gets a significant park downgrade tonight, but has to be considered the top arm on the board by a mile in a matchup against Washington (95 wRC+ vs RHP). While five of eight batters in the home team projected lineup fall below 20.5%, the remaining three exceed 26.5%. If you’re looking for safe, you’re playing the wrong game, but Alcantara is about as close as you can get tonight in a red hot pitcher who works deep into games with great upside in a favorable spot.

The remaining two pitchers to exceed $9K on both sites are Adam Wainwright and Yu Darvish, two very different pitchers here. One thing we can count on in New York tonight is a lot of slow curves in a game where both pitcher’s combined age is nearly higher than either’s average velocity. The difference is that Wainwright’s been really good. He’s having his best season in over half a decade. It doesn’t hurt that a pitcher with an 8.3 SwStr% has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him, but Wainwright also gets a lot of called strikes with that curveball and a heavy workload generally allows him to accumulate enough strikeouts to be an effective daily fantasy arm, though he does have five or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts. He also just had a streak of nine straight quality starts snapped, but that’s only because he pitched into the ninth and allowed four runs. The last time he failed to complete six innings was prior to the break. His 2.99 ERA is well below estimators, partially due to that defense (.255 BABIP), but all are below four. It remains to be seen whether the carryover from a draining series last night will serve as extra juice for the Mets in facing a team they must over-come for a Wild Card spot or if this might be a let-down spot for them. They have just a 97 wRC+ vs RHP, but 102 at home and 117 over the last week. Four of eight projected exceed a 24 K%. With Wainwright, you sacrifice some upside, but he is one of the few pitchers you can say has a high floor, strictly due to workload expectations. That probably makes him just a marginal value here though.

Darvish threw just his second quality start since the start of July last time out when he struck out seven of 22 Angels through six innings with a single run and three hits. His velocity was up too with a week in between starts. His ERA had climbed above four in his previous outing, but now sits at 3.95, fairly well above estimators ranging from a 3.13 xERA to a 3.67 FIP behind a still very impressive 24.3 K-BB%. If we trust that his last start may have been the beginning of a return to form, only three batters in the projected San Francisco lineup strike out less than 22.5% of the time against RHP this year. A healthy Darvish firing on all cylinders would be underpriced for less than $9.5K, but is that what we’re getting here?

J.D. Martinez (back) scratched Saturday

Martinez is a late scratch from the Red Sox lineup for a second straight day and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the White Sox due to back stiffness. Manager Alex Cora had originally been hopeful Martinez would be able to loosen up his back in pregame warmups, but that wasn’t the case, and he’ll be replaced in the batting order by Travis Shaw, who will now handle the designated hitter duties this evening.

Still Plenty of RH Power Remaining in This Top Lineup

To say that Daniel Lynch has not immediately lived up to the prospect hype would be an understatement. With just a 7.8 K-BB% and 11.0% Barrels/BBE, his ERA and all non-FIP estimators are above five. He’s completed five innings in just five of his 11 starts. Furthermore, Lynch has displayed some significant platoon issues. RHBs own a Statcast verified .379 wOBA and .378 xwOBA against him. Nelson Cruz may be gone, but the Twins can still produce a lineup that smashes LHP. The projected lineup includes four batters exceeding a .225 ISO against LHP this season, including Jorge Polanco (119 wRC+, .230 ISO), Josh Donaldson (130 wRC+, .239 ISO), Ryan Jeffers (106 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Byron Buxton (141 wRC+, .269 ISO). Jeffers is the surprise here, as a bottom of the lineup catcher, costing just $2.3K on FanDuel. The other three project to comprise the top half of the lineup, along with Rob Refsnyder (139 wRC+, .369 xwOBA), who costs less than $3K on either site. The Twins have the second highest team total on the board at exactly five runs.

There’s also some value on the other side of this matchup too. Missing bats at a below average rate with just a 9.3 K-BB%, Griffin Jax has also dealt with contact profile issues, including a 31.9 GB% and 91.1 mph EV, resulting in 17 home runs (18.3 HR/FB) on 25 barrels (13.4%). A 5.12 SIERA is his top estimator by more than half a run. Batters from either side of the plate own a wOBA above .360 with exactly a .370 xwOBA against Jax. The Royals only have one really dangerous bat against RHP, Salvador Perez (114 wRC+ .240 ISO), but they have plenty of cheap, upper half of the lineup bats, potentially including Nicky Lopez (105 wRC+), Carlos Santana (91 wRC+, .166 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (91 wRC+, .153 ISO) all for less than $3.5K on either site.

All the Value Bats Below $4K in This Lineup Tonight

If you’re looking for a few cheap bats to fill out your otherwise expensive lineups, the team you should probably be looking at is the Milwaukee Brewers. The park in Cleveland may actually be a small run environment upgrade and while Eli Morgan has occasionally shown some strikeout upside, that’s been inconsistent with problems in his contact profile persisting. While 12 of his 15 home runs were surrendered in his first eight starts, he’s still allowed 11 barrels (12.8%) over his last six starts. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him as well. The thing daily fantasy players really love here is that no single batter in the projected Milwaukee lineup (with a DH tonight) exceeds $4K on DraftKings or $3.5K on FanDuel and the Brewers currently have a 4.82 implied run line that’s sixth best on a 26 team board. If you’re looking for the ultimate punt power play, Dan Vogelsmash…er, Vogelbach (107 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP this year) costs no more than $2.3K on either site. At the top of the order, Christian Yelich (120 wRC+, .126 ISO) has remained productive despite the lack of power. In fact, Yelich and Jackie Bradley Jr. (36 wRC+, .109 ISO) are the only two projected batters in this lineup below a .163 ISO vs RHP this season. There’s lots of value across the board here, especially with Omar Narvaez (126 wRC+, .163 ISO) projected to bat cleanup for just $2.4K on FanDuel.

This Offense Has Struggled Against LHP, But Has Punished This Pitcher

Jon Lester may still be fairly new to St Louis, but certainly not the NL Central, as he has built up a long history with several prominent Cincinnati players. Lester has allowed exactly one run in four of his last five starts, but the reason for that is an 85.6 LOB% and 8.7 HR/FB. While he’s managed contact well over this span, he has just a 1.8 K-BB%. On the season, his 4.89 ERA is at least a quarter run below all estimators. Two batters he hasn’t managed contact well against in recent seasons are Nick Castellanos (148 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP this season), as few LHPs have, and Eugenio Suarez (50 wRC+, .173 ISO). The former has three home runs and a double in 17 PAs against Lester, while the latter has homered six times with three doubles in 51 PAs. Suarez mimics a lot of the Cincinnati offense with their struggles against LHP (85 wRC+) and it’s certainly a massive park downgrade, but perhaps Lester (RHBs .386 wOBA, .352 xwOBA) is just what this team needs to get going against southpaws. Jonathan India (138 wRC+, .154 ISO), Tyler Stephenson (114 wRC+, .159 ISO) Kyle Farmer (115 wRC+, .234 ISO) and Aristides Aquino (115 wRC+, .262 ISO) are all affordable or even cheap RHBs who have handled LHP well this year.

The Biggest Smash Spot on the Board Includes Top Bats Against the Worst Bullpen

Unfortunately, a Washington bullpen with an atrocious 6.6 FIP and 5.22 xFIP over the last 30 days is off the main board tonight and also facing Pittsburgh, but players still have ample opportunity to attack the Baltimore bullpen (5.29 FIP, 4.89 xFIP) with one of the best offenses in the league. Chris Ellis struck out 10 of the first 29 batters he faced with a 20+ SwStr% against the Orioles and Angels, but just four of 37 since (6.8 SwStr%) against the Blue Jays and Yankees. Considering his age (28) and lack of even above average strikeout rates in the minors, he’s more likely the second guy than the first. He’s also failed to face at least 20 batters in any of his outings so far. Ellis has held batters from either side of the plate below a .265 wOBA so far and while Statcast confirms some of this early success against LHBs (.276 xwOBA), the contact profile doesn’t believe in his numbers against RHBs at all (.393 xwOBA). This is especially bad news, as Toronto has a predominantly right-handed lineup full of dangerous hitters who handle same-handed pitching well. In fact, all nine projected starters have at least a 99 wRC+ vs RHP this season with Teoscar Hernandez owning the lowest ISO (.158) among seven RHBs. Oddsmakers see the potential smash spot here and not only do the Blue Jays top the board at 6.19 implied runs, but they’re the only offense with a team total above five runs tonight! Should he return, we could consider George Springer (145 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP this season) one of the top bats on the board, among teammates Marcus Semien (146 wRC+, .291 ISO) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (181 wRC+, .318 ISO). The bad news is that this is an expensive lineup, though Springer seems like a bargain at $3.9K on FanDuel. The good news is that just above anyone they plug in here is playable. You could even punt catcher with Danny Jansen (108 wRC+, .225 ISO) at the bottom of the order.

One Potential Mid-Range Stand Alone & Lower Priced SP2 Options

If you’re looking for a pitcher costing less than $9K, who might be able to stand alone tonight, Tylor Megill costs just $7K on FanDuel, who is still carrying an impressive 26.2 K% (19.8 K-BB%), but he’s run into some contact profile issues as of late, allowing seven home runs on eight barrels with just 35.7% of his contact on the ground and a 91.2 mph EV over his last three starts. His 7.98 ERA just about matches his FIP (7.73), nearly double his xFIP (3.95) over this span. While his 4.43 season FIP is his only estimator above his 4.20 ERA (16.5 HR/FB) or even above four, his contact profile produces a 3.56 ERA that’s actually his second best estimator. There’s some value here, especially when you consider that the Yankees have just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP and lose their DH in a tough park to hit in across town tonight. Currently projecting Joey Gallo as the odd man out, four of the eight remaining still have a 25.5 K% or worse vs RHP this season.

There are several more struggling or unproven pitchers whom DraftKings has priced down tonight, worth slotting into SP2 spots, especially in GPPs. Throwing fewer than 85 pitches in each of his first two starts, Glenn Ottto has struck out 11 of 36 batters, but with just an 8.3 SwStr%. However, he’s walked just one with 54.2% of his contact on the ground and an 84.9 mph EV. Otto is not a highly regarded prospect (or at least wasn’t when prospect reports were written up earlier in the year), but did produce a 40.7 K% over 65.1 AA innings. Then just under a quarter of batters faced in 30 AAA innings. He faces a tough Oakland lineup (103 wRC+ with just one projected batter above a 21.5 K% vs RHP), but in a great park at a low cost ($6.3K on DraftKings). Another rookie, Eli Morgan, costs $7.1K on DraftKings, occasionally showing some strikeout upside with a high of nine twice, but fewer than five in half of his 14 starts. The 28.2 GB% with an 89.5 mph EV is a problem. While 12 of his 15 home runs were surrendered in his first eight starts, he’s still allowed 11 barrels (12.8%) over his last six starts. The projected Milwaukee lineup includes four batters with at least a 24 K% vs RHP.

Hitting on some more established, but struggling lower priced arms, German Marquez has hit a wall with an 18.5 K% over his last five starts and eight home runs allowed. Three of those starts have been away from Coors in some pitcher friendly parks (Texas, San Fransico, Chicago NL). He’s allowed 23 runs (21 earned) over 24.1 innings with a small drop in his ground ball rate (48.8%) and rise in his average exit velocity (89.5 mph). The only good takeaways are that he’s walked just six and his velocity hasn’t declined. Season estimators are still below his 4.08 ERA with the best of them being a 3.33 DRA. The Phillies don’t strike out a lot as currently constructed, but Marquez costs just $6.8K on DraftKings.

Ian Anderson has not struck out any of the 39 batters he’s faced since returning from the IL (6.1 SwStr%), while walking six with reduced velocity. He now has just a 10.0 K-BB% on the season, but costs $6.6K on DraftKings, while five in the projected opposing lineup exceed a 26.5 K% vs RHP. This is a get right spot for him. In two starts back from the IL, he’s struck out 11 of 39 batters, but with four walks and three home runs. All three of his barrels and one-third of his fly balls leaving the yard with an 87 mph EV since returning seems a bit fluky though. The bottom half of the projected Tampa Bay lineup includes five batters with at least a 23.8 K% vs LHP this year and Body costs just $5.6K on DraftKings. The opposing pitcher, Michael Wacha costs $8.1K, but has struck out 27 of his last 91 batters (13.3 SwStr%) with just three walks, dropping his contact neutral estimators below four and a half, while five in the projected Detroit lineup exceed a 23.5 K% vs RHP.