DFS Alerts

High Upside Bat in Potentially Low Ownership Spot

Just three teams exceed five implied runs on Monday night. The Blue Jays have a 5.95 team total that’s half a run clear of any other team and this certainly makes sense as 28 year-old Chris Ellis is making just his second major league start, lasted three innings in his first and is backed by one of just two bullpens with both a FIP and xFIP above five over the last 30 days. Loading up on Toronto bats, as affordable, only makes a ton of sense tonight. The Padres at 5.48 implied runs are a bit more curious, as their 31 wRC+ over the last seven days is worst on the board by a large margin. Tyler Gilbert has struck out just 16 of 88 batters with nine walks and a somewhat average contact profile, except for allowing just three barrels on a 36.1 GB% and 89 mph EV. Estimators range widely, from a 3.24 xERA to a 5.13 SIERA. The Arizona bullpen has an ERA, SIERA, FIP and xFIP all above 4.8 over the last 30 days though and seven of eight projected San Diego batters has at least a 98 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Arizona is a slightly positive run environment with the roof closed. The Dodgers have a 5.07 team total and Drew Smyly has a 22.9 HR/FB on a 40.9 GB% with 11.5% Barrels/BBE over his last eight starts.

A bit further down on the board, tied for fifth at 4.63 implied runs, we find the Phillies. At first, this doesn’t make a ton of sense against a pitcher with a 27.8 K% and 17.4 SwStr% that illustrates elite strikeout upside. The Philadelphia lineup still has a few things going for it tonight though, first of which is Josiah Gray’s contact profile. Despite just an 87.6 mph EV, a 28.9 GB% has still led to 12.6% Barrels/BBE with estimators ranging from a 3.91 xERA to a 6.33 FIP (22.6 HR/FB). Secondly, some hitter friendly weather probably makes Washington the most positive environment on a west coast and dome heavy slate. Lastly, Gray will be backed by the only bullpen in the league that has three estimators (SIERA, xFIP, FIP) all above five over the last month. While Gray has a 100 point reverse wOBA split over his 36 major league innings, Statcast closes the gap to a single point (RHBs .303 xwOBA, LHBs .302). Add in park and bullpen effects and Bryce Harper (182 wRC+, .345 ISO vs RHP this season) is one of the highest upside bats on the slate in a spot where he’s likely to go under-owned, due to both his cost and the upside of the opposing pitcher. Odubel Herrera (100 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Brad Miller (112 wRC+, .217 ISO) are the value plays here. Both cost less than $4K on DraftKings and $3K on FanDuel.

Debuting Rookie in a Great Spot Plugs in Well as Cheap SP2

Aside from the four pitchers priced above $9K on both sites, Monday night’s slate includes two pitchers returning from the IL, who are likely to be on very conservative pitch counts (Corey Kluber, Chris Paddack), along with A.J. Alexy, making his major league debut and Chris Ellis, who makes his second. The former is a marginally regarded prospect (19th in the organization with a 40+ FV grade via Fangraphs), projecting as a multi-inning weapon who can miss bats, but struggles with control. A 33.3 K% and 10.5 BB% in three AAA starts (14.2 innings) plus a 28.8 K% and 10.6 BB% in 50.1 AA innings split between starting and relief seems to illustrate that. That’s more than enough to consider against the Rockies (67 wRC+ on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP) in Texas for just $4.7K on DraftKings. Ellis (already 28), on the other hand, has been kicking around AAA since 2016, starting his first major league game in his third appearance (for three different teams) just last week, striking out three of 13 Angels, allowing three runs of five hits without a walk over three innings. Over seven innings, he’s generated just 23.5% of his contact on the ground with a 92.3 mph EV. A 22.7 K% at AAA this year is his highest mark at the level, but includes a 10.9 BB% with just a 39.8 GB%. The Blue Jays should be more than he can handle.

There really aren’t any additional low priced options. Johnny Cueto has probably exceeded expectations at the back of the San Francisco rotation and costs less than $8K. While his 3.73 ERA is below all of his estimators, it’s only more than half a run removed from a 4.32 SIERA and confusing 4.75 xERA based on a 14.7 K-BB%, 38.1 GB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE. He’s gone six straight starts without completing six innings though and the projected Milwaukee lineup includes just one batters above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season. Josiah Gray has thrown 36 major league innings with a 27.8 K% and 17.4 SwStr% that illustrates elite strikeout upside. There are some issues in the contact profile, including a 28.9 GB% that’s led to 12.6% Barrels/BBE, despite just an 87.6 mph EV. His 3.75 ERA is below all estimators (.217 BABIP, 100 LOB%), ranging from a 3.91 xERA to a 6.33 FIP (22.6 HR/FB). He’s averaging one home run and barrel every three innings. While not good, it seems a bit unlucky that every barrel he’s allowed has left the yard. Washington may be a difficult pitching environment tonight with a potential weather boost for hitters and Gray costs above $8K on both sites, though reaches $9K on neither. While three batters in the projected Philadelphia lineup exceed a 26 K% vs RHP, nobody else is above 20.3%.

German Marquez costs just above $9K on FanDuel and $600 less on DraftKings. He has allowed seven home runs (21.9 HR/FB) with a 5.97 ERA over his last seven starts. The good news is that his strikeout rate has remained stable at a quarter of batters faced with just eight barrels (7.2%) over this span. His FIP is still just 4.26 with a 3.34 xFIP over this span. In addition to the home runs, he has a .327 BABIP and 63.1 LOB% during this stretch. His 4.02 season ERA is above all estimators, ranging from a 3.28 DRA to a 3.88 SIERA. Texas is a large park upgrade, while the projected lineup for the Rangers includes seven batters above a 23 K% vs RHP this season and only three above a .170 ISO. Marquez is certainly a viable stand alone alternative tonight.

Luis Garcia has just five quality starts over his last 12 outings, but that’s more due to intention workload limitations than performance. He hit 90 pitches for the first time in eight starts last time out. His 28.9 K% is fourth best on the board and while his 3.21 ERA is below all of his estimators, all are within half a run. The workload limitations explain a price tag of $9.2K or less on either site in a great spot in Seattle tonight. Not only is it one of the top pitcher’s parks in the league, but the Mariners have just a 90 wRC+ at home and 92 wRC+ vs RHP. The average strikeout rate for tonight’s projected starting lineup for Seattle is 23.3%, according to PlateIQ.

Top Arms Difficult to Separate on Monday

A nine game slate on Monday night includes two pitchers who reach the $10K price point on both sites, one more above $10K on FanDuel only and then only one more above $9K on both sites. Corbin Burnes has struck out five or fewer in three of his last four starts, but 15 Cubs in the remaining one. His 34.4 K% and 29.4 K-BB% tops the board with a 49.8 GB%, 85.5 mph EV and 2.6% Barrels/BBE a giant cherry on top. A 2.67 SIERA and 2.42 xFIP are his only estimators above a 2.30 ERA. Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board and gets a significant park upgrade in San Francisco, but faces an offense with a 118 wRC+ at home and 16 HR/FB vs RHP. Strikeout rates for the projected lineup are marginal with four above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year, but only one above 25.3%. Burnes is still talented enough and has been dominant enough that he should still probably be considered the top arm on the board, even in this tough matchup.

Zack Wheeler did have seven runs (five earned) charged to his ledger last time out, but several of them were in the ninth inning. He has allowed at least four runs in six of his last nine starts (4.45 ERA), but is still carrying an ERA and estimators below three this season because his workload is so heavy. He’s completed seven innings in five of his last seven starts. For the season, he has a 24 K-BB% and 50.7 GB% resulting in a 2.90 ERA that’s within one-third of a run of all estimators. While Washington is a positive run environment that may get an additional weather boost, the Nationals have just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP, while three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Wheeler is a solid bet for a quality start here and a strong value for exactly $10K on DraftKings.

Robbie Ray costs $10.9K on FanDuel, but $1.2K less on DraftKings. Not only has he struck out 33 of his last 82 batters, but he’s thrown 14 quality starts over his last 16 attempts and has allowed just one home run on four barrels (4.3%) with an 87.7 mph EV over his last 40 innings. With a 25.3 K-BB% and near league average 8.8% Barrels/BBE, it’s all finally come together for Robbie Ray with a 2.78 ERA that’s below estimators, all above three, but below three and a half. The Orioles have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP this season, but four of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs LHP. With three strong arms like this up top, let ownership projections be your guide tonight. If a tough matchup with the highest price tag turns players off Burnes tonight, he’d make a great leverage play, but it’s hard to go wrong with any of these three.

Julio Urias is the only other pitcher on the board exceeding $9K on both sites. For most the season, he has had excellent control (5.5 BB%), which has occasionally let him pitch deeper into games on a low pitch count. More recently, he’s walked seven of his last 61 batters and hasn’t gone beyond five innings in four straight starts. The 20.8 K-BB% and 86.1 mph EV (5.9% Barrels/BBE) have resulted in estimators no higher than 3.69 xFIP, but he has just four quality starts since the end of May due to the limited workload. In a somewhat neutral run environment, Urias has a somewhat neutral matchup (Braves 97 wRC+), though the Braves have added key RHBs over the last month. Only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 22 K% vs LHP this season. Urias is a difficult pay up considering workload expectations.

Andrew Knapp (COVID-IL) scratched Friday

Knapp has been scratched from the Phillies lineup will join Zach Eflin and Luke Williams on the injured list after the trio tested positive for COVID-19 prior to Friday’s matchup against the Diamondbacks. In his absence, J.T. Realmuto, who previously was scheduled to have a day off, will join the lineup and handle the catching duties this evening.

Home Run Prone with a Low Strikeout Rate at AAA

Andrew Albers is scheduled to make his first major league start and second major league appearance since 2017. He has just a 10.6 K-BB% over 124.2 major league innings, but a 17.5 K-BB% over 91 AAA innings this year. However, that was due more to immaculate control (2.3 BB%) with 12 home runs. Albers has been around a while and has exhibited a small reverse split with 403 RHBs owning a .330 wOBA against him in his career. The lowest of 10 teams with a team total reaching five runs tonight, this is a nice spot for the Milwaukee offense, especially considering just Christian Yelich (120 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP this season) and Willy Adames (133 wRC+, .227 ISO) reach $4K on DraftKings and the latter is just $3K on FanDuel. For just $2.4K on FanDuel, Luis Urias (109 wRC+, .195 ISO) is projected to bat fifth and has a 142 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Value Bats with a Health Team Total

There are not a lot of viable pitching options outside the most expensive arms tonight, which means that affordable bats are going to be necessary and Cardinal bats offer some upside with the ability to relieve some salary concerns with a couple of exceptions (Arenado & Goldschmidt). There are 10 teams (one-third of the board) above five implied runs tonight. The Cardinals are not one of them, but they’re right underneath with a 4.96 run team total tonight. Pittsburgh starter Dillon Peters has faced just 42 batters this year, 32 of them right-handed, which is the side all eight Cardinals in the projected lineup would hit from. That’s not a large sample and Statcast pushes RHBs up from a .263 wOBA to a .357 xwOBA here, which does make some sense because Peters has faced 471 RHBs in his career with a .372 wOBA. Tyler O’Neill (162 wRC+, .305 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $3.2K on FanDuel ($1K more on DK) with Dylan Carlson (132 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Tommy Edman (118 wRC+, .228 ISO) additional affordable projected in the top half of the lineup.

If you’re looking for more of a one off punt, consider some very small sample successes against LHP, like Lane Thomas (234 wRC+, .185 ISO) against Rich Hill (RHBs .334 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) for just $2.2K on either site or Frank Schwindel (213 wRC+, .471 ISO) against Dallas Keuchel (.332 wOBA, .378 xwOBA) at $3.2K on DK. On the other side of that matchup, Brian Goodwin (147 wRC+, .236 ISO) is also fairly cheap against Keegan Thompson (LHBs .334 wOBA, .369 ISO).

The Two Worst Bullpens in the League

Since three consecutive starts without allowing a run, Matt Harvey has allowed 14 of them, including six home runs, over his last 19 innings. A 6.27 ERA is still well above estimators around five with a .329 BABIP and 61.4 LOB%. Aside from a 17.1 K%, the rest of his profile is passable, but the easiest thing to do is tell players to attack this Baltimore bullpen in Camden and Harvey doesn’t have nearly enough upside to change that. The Baltimore relief corps is one of just two pens in the majors exceeding a five FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days. That the Nationals are the other team with Paolo Espino starting is enough to push an ice cold Mets’ offense above five implied runs tonight, but this set up pushes the Rays to the top of the board with a team total of 6.09 runs with only one other team (Boston) within half a run. Harvey’s shown a bit of a reverse split this year, but batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him, so while Brandon Lowe (157 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP this season) is probably one of the top bats on the board, virtually anyone the Rays decide to plug into their daily lineup randomizer is playable under hitter friendly weather conditions with Joey Wendle (122 wRC+, .167 ISO) perhaps the top value for just $2.6K on FanDuel. Two potential issues here are that Wendle and Kevin Kiermaier (93 wRC+) are the only two projected starters below $4.5K on DraftKings and Kevin currently has an Orange tag slapped on this game. For those looking to take advantage of a terrible Washington bullpen, Paolo Espino has exhibited a reverse split as well (RHBs .344 wOBA, .368 xwOBA), but LHBs have a .327 xwOBA too. Brandon Nimmo (117 wRC+, .117 ISO vs RHP) and Pete Alonso (124 wRC+, .209 ISO) have been pulling their weight with a wRC+ above 100 over the last 30 days. The only other player in the projected lineup who can say the same is Michael Conforto (116 wRC+, .182 ISO), who costs just $3.4K on DK and $2.5K on FD.

Lower Priced Pitching Offers More Compliments Than Alternatives

The middle and bottom of the board tonight is bare enough that players probably want to pay $10K for their pitching needs tonight with cheaper arms here mostly in consideration for your SP2 on DraftKings. One exception is probably Joe Musgrove, who costs more than $9K on both sites. Musgrove has five quality starts in his last six outings and has allowed more than one run in just one of his last five. The strikeouts are back up with a 30.6 K% and 15 SwStr% over the last month with his velocity increasing as well. For the season, a 3.65 xERA is his only estimator not within half a run of his 3.04 ERA. The projected lineup for the Angels includes just two batters below a 25 K% vs RHP this season. Calling Musgrove an alternative to higher priced pitching isn’t entirely fair because he doesn’t miss that price range by much, but will save you a few dollars.

Otherwise, Dallas Keuchel is still getting his ground balls (55.8%), but that’s about the only positive. He has just a 14.1 K% and has allowed 9.6% Barrels/BBE despite all that contact on the ground. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half. However, he costs just $6.6K on DraftKings and the projected Cubs’ lineup includes just four batters below a 30 K% vs LHP this season. Jake Odorizzi has just two quality starts on the season with a 4.52 ERA that’s still lower than all his estimators, but he did strike out eight in his last start, costs just $6.7K on DraftKings and gets the Rangers (six of nine projected above a 24 K% vs RHP this seaon) in a negative run environment if the roof is closed in Texas.

Over the last month, Logan Gilbert’s strikeout rate has dropped to 22.1% with multiple home runs allowed in three of five starts. On a positive note, he’s allowed more home runs (seven) than barrels (six) with a strong 16.8 K-BB%, while he’s faced some of the deeper lineups in the American League (and Texas) over this run. Despite the 5.16 ERA (63.4 LOB%), all estimators are still below four this year. The Royals have a 79 wRC+ on the road, 85 wRC+ vs RHP and five batters in the projected Kansas City lineup have at least a 26 K% vs RHP this season. In one of the most negative run environments in baseball, Gilbert costs $8K or less on either site.

A potential breakout season has suddenly turned ugly on Sean Manaea. Over four August starts, he’s allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 15.2 innings, striking out just 14 of 79 batters with five home runs and a 91.9 mph EV. His ERA is up to 3.77, which nearly perfectly in line with all of his estimators, ranging from a 3.58 xFIP to a 3.95 xERA. If you’re looking for Manaea to rebound, there’s a chance he’s under-priced within $100 of $8.5K on either site and nobody is going to be playing him against the scorching Yankees (113 wRC+, 16 HR/FB vs LHP), but five of nine projected starters exceed a 24 K% vs LHP and it is a very forgiving park.

A Clear Top Arm, but Viable Alternatives Atop the Board on Friday

A full 15 game slate on Friday night gives us three $10K pitchers on both sites with Kevin Gausman within $100 of a double digit price tag on either site. The top pitcher on the board and most expensive on FanDuel is Gerrit Cole, who is second most costly on DraftKings by $200. Cole’s 34.3 K% tops the slate by nearly five points and despite all the talk about decline since the sticky stuff ban, he’s only allowed more than two earned runs six times this year. In fact, Cole’s 2.92 ERA is above, but within a quarter of a run of all of his estimators. The matchup is not ideal. The A’s have a 102 wRC+ at home and vs RHP, while only one batter in the projected lineup exceeds a 21 K% vs RHP this year, but the park upgrade should help even some of that out.

With a $10.7K price tag on DraftKings, Shane McClanahan (20.7 K-BB%) is the most expensive pitcher ($200 less on FanDuel). Initial reaction is that this is too expensive for a pitcher with contact profile issues (91.2 mph EV), who only runs through the order twice in a dangerous park. However, McClanahan has faced at least 24 batters in four of his last five starts, has the highest SwStr% on the board (15.2%) and the bottom half of the projected Baltimore lineup includes three batters with at least a 26 K% vs LHP, while the O’s have just an 87 wRC+ vs LHP as a team since the All-Star break. McClanahan is an interesting leverage play if ownership projections are low enough.

Aaron Nola has flashed his upside frequently this season (11 Ks last time out), but not consistently enough. He’s struck out five or fewer in one-third of his starts and has recorded quality starts in just 40% of them. That said, estimators are still more than a half run below a 4.33 ERA, due to a 70.2 LOB%. The park does not favor him, but the Diamondbacks have just an 82 wRC+ and 9.2 HR/FB vs RHP. Only three of eight in the projected Arizona lineup have a strikeout rate below 23% vs RHP this year.

Gausman has produced just a single quality start over his last seven efforts. He’s retained a high strikeout rate, but now has an 11.7 BB% over his last 10 starts, although he’s walked two or fewer in four of his last five starts. Indicators are favorable, as the velocity is fine and he’s generated at least an 11 SwStr% in five straight starts, meaning Gausman may be slightly undervalued at this point. His worst season estimator is just a 3.53 SIERA. He gets a park downgrade in Atlanta, while the Braves have a 101 wRC+ and 16 HR/FB vs RHP, but six of eight projected batters exceed a 22.5 K% vs RHP this season. Cole would seem the “safe” play here, but there’s really not a bad play in the bunch with anyone of them capable of winning a GPP for someone.

Zach Eflin (knee) scratched Thursday; Matt Moore will start

Despite just being activated this afternoon, Eflin has been scratched from Thursday’s start due to a flare up in the knee that had originally sent him to the injured list. In his absence, Matt Moore will take the mound for the Phillies’ series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening.

LHBs Smash This Potential Starter

The Diamondbacks seem to be playing coy with their pitching intentions for tonight, but the latest speculation is surrounding Bryse Wilson’s return from the IL and oddsmakers have already installed a 4.5 team total for Arizona, which is closer to the top of the board than the bottom tonight, so this is a spot players may want to take advantage of tonight. If it is Wilson, LHBs have a .359 wOBA and .405 xwOBA against him this season and while the projected D’Back lineup only includes one batter above a .175 ISO against RHP this season, this lineup does contain some affordable competent bats like Josh Rojas (126 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP), costing just $3K on FanDuel. Josh VanMeter (128 wRC+ last 30 days) is just $2.2K on either site. Pavin Smith (104 wRC+, .159 ISO) is within $200 of $3K on either site as well. One additional bat to consider, especially if he bumps up further in the lineup than expected is Daulton Varsho (97 wRC+), who has been their top power bat vs RHP (.220 ISO) and one of the hottest bats in the lineup overall (162 wRC+ last 30 days). Varsho costs $3.6K on DK and $3K on FD.

Where to Find the Cheap Bats to Pay for High End Pitching

We’ve already established that this board is sort of a pitching paradise with just three teams above five implied runs and then more than a half run drop off to the fourth highest team total. It gets even more difficult than that with the Angels (5.45) right behind Boston (5.84) and potentially the top batter on the board (Shohei Ohtani) not even available because he’s pitching. A reasonably priced Kyle Schwarber (156 wRC+, .379 ISO vs RHP) is likely to appear in a ton of lineups tonight against Bailey Ober (LHBs .379 wOBA, .357 ISO), but he alone is not going to cut it, so where else should players be looking to save some money in their lineups.

First, let’s jump in our way back machine and pretend it’s 2005 because Albert Pujols has been smashing LHP this year (153 wRC+, .305 ISO). Striking out 34 of his last 90 with a more reasonable 10 walks, Blake Snell has a 2.45 ERA and 2.97 xFIP over his last four starts, but Pujols costs less than $2.3K on either site and is projected to bat cleanup for the Dodgers tonight. Also projected to bat cleanup for less than $3K on either site is Luis Arraez (130 wRC+, .368 xwOBA vs RHP), right there in Boston against Nick Pivetta (LHBs .314 wOBA, .323 xwOBA). Ohtani is not available in Baltimore, but Brandon Marsh is for less than $3K with a 114 wRC+ and .344 xwOBA vs RHP so far. Lastly, Michael Chavis (88 wRC+, .343 ISO vs LHP) is projected to lead off against Tyler Gilbert (RHBs .345 wOBA, .325 xwOBA) and costs the minimum on FanDuel.

The Middle of the Board is Pitching Rich Too Tonight

The top of the board may be loaded and there’s also a cheap, young potential stud making his first major league start in Miami, but the middle of the board has quite a bit to offer on a pitching rich slate tonight too. Josiah Gray has a 28 K% with an even more impressive 17.2 SwStr% in his 30 major league innings. With four of his 10 walks in his first start, control doesn’t seem to be an issue. However, he has allowed 11 home runs, constituting a quarter of his fly balls. The good news is that he’s allowed just 10 barrels with an 87.3 mph EV, though that’s still 12.7% of his contact. His estimators are incredibly diverse, including a 6.70 FIP, 4.03 SIERA and 3.90 xERA. He’ll probably have fewer power concerns in Miami, against an offense that has just a 10.9 HR/FB at home, while the projected lineup includes five batters above a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year. Gray costs $8K or less on either site.

Lucas Giolito has struck out exactly eight in three straight starts since being blow up against the Royals and has exceeded a 20 SwStr% in each of his last two, in which he’s pushed his slider usage above 30% (19.9% on the season). Giolito has thrown a few stinkers in this year, but overall, a 3.77 ERA is within half a run of all estimators with none reaching four. He has a very tough assignment in Toronto (111 wRC+, 20.8 K%, 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but costs just $8.3K on DraftKings.

Since the All-Star break, Luis Castillo has a 27.5 K% (13.6 SwStr%) and 58.2 GB% with a 3.64 ERA and 3.23 xFIP. He started so poorly that he still has a 4.35 ERA, but it’s above all of his estimators. In fact only his SIERA (4.18) is above four. The Milwaukee offense is no longer a pushover (just three projected batters above a 21 K% vs RHP this year) and Castillo costs more than $9K on either site, but Willy Adames is not expected to be in the lineup tonight. In a couple of starts against the Brewers sandwiched around the break, Castillo struck out 14 of 50 batters with a 61.5 GB%.

Two starts back, Zach Plesac struck out a season high nine Tigers, but followed that up by being torched in Minnesota (4.2 IP – 6 R – 2 K). Two issues for Plesac are that he’s only been able to convert an 11.3 SwStr% into a 16.3 K% and he’s also allowed 19 home runs (15.6 HR/FB) on 35 barrels (10.7%). His 4.87 ERA runs fairly closed to estimators tightly packed between a 4.48 xERA and 5.01 FIP. The matchup makes him appealing here. The revamped Texas lineup includes not only just two batters above a .169 ISO vs RHP this season, but just two above a .306 wOBA and two below a 24 K%. This is a get right spot for Plesac

The Impact of Tonight's First Time Starters

There are quite a few things we don’t know yet about tonight. For example, the Pirates have yet to confirm a starting pitcher, while the Orioles have just named Chris Ellis, who has five major league innings to his name, while another two (Jake Latz & Edward Cabrera) are making their major league debuts. Let’s try to learn a little bit more about these young arms in order to gain some sort of edge on the field. Ellis started 13 games, compiling 57 innings at AAA this season with a 22.7 K% and 10.9 BB%. Less than 40% of his contact has been on the ground at AAA and just 25% in five major league innings (four this year). Already 28 years-old, Ellis is not a name you’ll find on any prospect lists, is already working on his sixth organization and has thrown over 300 innings at AAA. Oddsmakers don’t expect Ellis to be successful. The Angels currently have the second highest team total on the board tonight (5.45).

With just a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and a starting assignment at AA this season, Jake Latz probably didn’t expect to find himself starting a major league game this season, but after producing a 20.6 K-BB% over 63.1 innings there, he pitched just nine innings at AAA (10.9 K-BB%) before getting the call. In a Fangraphs prospect report published near the end of May called him a “viable spot starter”, which is what sportsbooks are treating him like, issuing Cleveland the third highest implied run line on the board (5.29).

Edward Cabrera is certainly expected to be more than a spot starter. He is currently the Marlins’ third ranked prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). Cabrera’s been injury prone, throwing just 29.1 AAA innings this year (37.2 K%) and 26 more at AA (34 K%), but we can plainly see the upside in his numbers. Accordingly, the Nationals are sixth lowest on the board with a team total of just four runs. Cabrera is a very interesting SP2 on DraftKings for just $5K.

Heavy Volume and Upside at the Top of the Board Tonight

No shortage of top end arms on a 10 game slate, as two pitchers reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight with three more only on FanDuel. The most expensive DraftKings pitcher ($10.2K) and $100 more, but only the fifth priciest on FanDuel is Brandon Woodruff. One start after Brandon Woodruff being pulled after three shutout innings for no apparent reason, Woodruff was blown up by the Cardinals for a season high six runs with two home runs, striking out just four of 24 batters. A 7.0 SwStr% in that game was also Woodruff’s worst mark of the season. While all estimators are above his 2.48 ERA this season, a 3.36 SIERA sits as the worst of those, produced with a 22.8 K-BB% and just 5% Barrels/BBE. The Reds have a 109 wRC+ and 17.1 HR/FB vs RHP, though more average power on the road (14 HR/FB). There aren’t a ton of strikeouts in the projected lineup with only one batter above 24.3% vs RHP this season.

The other pitcher reaching $10K on both sites is third most expensive on FanDuel ($11K) and exactly $1K less on DraftKings, where he should be considered one of the top values on the board. Zack Wheeler has allowed at least four runs in five of his last eight starts with a just a 24.8 K% (5.0 BB%), but still has just a 4.28 ERA over that span with no fewer than five strikeouts because he’s such a workhorse. He’s failed to complete six innings or face at least 26 batters just once each during this stretch. A 3.16 SIERA is Wheeler’s only estimator above three this season, as all are within half a run of his 2.77 ERA. The matchup is less than ideal against an offense with a 111 wRC+ vs RHP in a dangerous park, but the Rays lose the DH and Wheeler has been efficiently navigating this environment all season. Three of eight projected hitters for Tampa Bay exceed a 24.5 K% vs RHP. The workload expectation probably may make Wheeler the top overall arm on the board, as well as one of the top values.

Walker Buehler is the one guy on the board who can compete with Wheeler’s workload. Early on, he had contact issues with reduced velocity on his fastball, but after allowing 20 barrels over his first 11 starts, he’s allowed just nine of his last 14. Then the strikeout rate sat at just 23.8% after his first 13 starts, but has jumped up to 30.2% over his last 12. All the while, he kept pounding out quality start after quality start, missing just three times this year. While his 2.11 ERA is still well below all of his estimators, those estimators are all running at 3.65 (SIERA) or better. Buehler has the more favorable park than Wheeler, but faces a more contact prone offense (only one projected batter above a 23 K% vs RHP). Buehler is $300 more expensive than Wheeler on FanDuel, but $300 less expensive on DraftKings. It should be interesting to see how ownership shakes out between the two.

Shohei Ohtani is the most expensive pitcher on the board, carrying an $11.6K price tag on FanDuel. Since his debacle at Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has thrown thrown six straight quality starts with a total of seven runs allowed with a 25 K% and just four walks. While all estimators are well above his 2.79 ERA on the season, the worst is still just a 3.73 SIERA. He has a great matchup (Orioles 87 wRC+ vs RHP with seven of nine projected above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year) in a difficult environment. Ohtani is a much better value for nearly $3K less on DraftKings.

Lastly, Robbie Ray is $10.5K on FanDuel, but $1.6K less on DraftKings. He tops the board with a 30.7 K%. It’s starting to get scary because Ray seems to have solved his lone remaining issue. He’s allowed just a single home run and four barrels over his last five starts. While his 2.79 ERA is below all of his estimators (89.5 LOB%), though the worst is just a 3.65 FIP. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ and 15.9 HR/FB vs LHP with marginal strikeout totals in the projected lineup, but Ray did set a season high with 13 strikeouts in his only outing against the White Sox this year. Wheeler and Beuhler are your highest floors and certainly can compete for the top ceilings as well, while the remaining three are all fine GPP upside plays, where going against projected ownership may be your best play tonight.