DFS Alerts

The Impact of Tonight's First Time Starters

There are quite a few things we don’t know yet about tonight. For example, the Pirates have yet to confirm a starting pitcher, while the Orioles have just named Chris Ellis, who has five major league innings to his name, while another two (Jake Latz & Edward Cabrera) are making their major league debuts. Let’s try to learn a little bit more about these young arms in order to gain some sort of edge on the field. Ellis started 13 games, compiling 57 innings at AAA this season with a 22.7 K% and 10.9 BB%. Less than 40% of his contact has been on the ground at AAA and just 25% in five major league innings (four this year). Already 28 years-old, Ellis is not a name you’ll find on any prospect lists, is already working on his sixth organization and has thrown over 300 innings at AAA. Oddsmakers don’t expect Ellis to be successful. The Angels currently have the second highest team total on the board tonight (5.45).

With just a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and a starting assignment at AA this season, Jake Latz probably didn’t expect to find himself starting a major league game this season, but after producing a 20.6 K-BB% over 63.1 innings there, he pitched just nine innings at AAA (10.9 K-BB%) before getting the call. In a Fangraphs prospect report published near the end of May called him a “viable spot starter”, which is what sportsbooks are treating him like, issuing Cleveland the third highest implied run line on the board (5.29).

Edward Cabrera is certainly expected to be more than a spot starter. He is currently the Marlins’ third ranked prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). Cabrera’s been injury prone, throwing just 29.1 AAA innings this year (37.2 K%) and 26 more at AA (34 K%), but we can plainly see the upside in his numbers. Accordingly, the Nationals are sixth lowest on the board with a team total of just four runs. Cabrera is a very interesting SP2 on DraftKings for just $5K.

Heavy Volume and Upside at the Top of the Board Tonight

No shortage of top end arms on a 10 game slate, as two pitchers reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight with three more only on FanDuel. The most expensive DraftKings pitcher ($10.2K) and $100 more, but only the fifth priciest on FanDuel is Brandon Woodruff. One start after Brandon Woodruff being pulled after three shutout innings for no apparent reason, Woodruff was blown up by the Cardinals for a season high six runs with two home runs, striking out just four of 24 batters. A 7.0 SwStr% in that game was also Woodruff’s worst mark of the season. While all estimators are above his 2.48 ERA this season, a 3.36 SIERA sits as the worst of those, produced with a 22.8 K-BB% and just 5% Barrels/BBE. The Reds have a 109 wRC+ and 17.1 HR/FB vs RHP, though more average power on the road (14 HR/FB). There aren’t a ton of strikeouts in the projected lineup with only one batter above 24.3% vs RHP this season.

The other pitcher reaching $10K on both sites is third most expensive on FanDuel ($11K) and exactly $1K less on DraftKings, where he should be considered one of the top values on the board. Zack Wheeler has allowed at least four runs in five of his last eight starts with a just a 24.8 K% (5.0 BB%), but still has just a 4.28 ERA over that span with no fewer than five strikeouts because he’s such a workhorse. He’s failed to complete six innings or face at least 26 batters just once each during this stretch. A 3.16 SIERA is Wheeler’s only estimator above three this season, as all are within half a run of his 2.77 ERA. The matchup is less than ideal against an offense with a 111 wRC+ vs RHP in a dangerous park, but the Rays lose the DH and Wheeler has been efficiently navigating this environment all season. Three of eight projected hitters for Tampa Bay exceed a 24.5 K% vs RHP. The workload expectation probably may make Wheeler the top overall arm on the board, as well as one of the top values.

Walker Buehler is the one guy on the board who can compete with Wheeler’s workload. Early on, he had contact issues with reduced velocity on his fastball, but after allowing 20 barrels over his first 11 starts, he’s allowed just nine of his last 14. Then the strikeout rate sat at just 23.8% after his first 13 starts, but has jumped up to 30.2% over his last 12. All the while, he kept pounding out quality start after quality start, missing just three times this year. While his 2.11 ERA is still well below all of his estimators, those estimators are all running at 3.65 (SIERA) or better. Buehler has the more favorable park than Wheeler, but faces a more contact prone offense (only one projected batter above a 23 K% vs RHP). Buehler is $300 more expensive than Wheeler on FanDuel, but $300 less expensive on DraftKings. It should be interesting to see how ownership shakes out between the two.

Shohei Ohtani is the most expensive pitcher on the board, carrying an $11.6K price tag on FanDuel. Since his debacle at Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has thrown thrown six straight quality starts with a total of seven runs allowed with a 25 K% and just four walks. While all estimators are well above his 2.79 ERA on the season, the worst is still just a 3.73 SIERA. He has a great matchup (Orioles 87 wRC+ vs RHP with seven of nine projected above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year) in a difficult environment. Ohtani is a much better value for nearly $3K less on DraftKings.

Lastly, Robbie Ray is $10.5K on FanDuel, but $1.6K less on DraftKings. He tops the board with a 30.7 K%. It’s starting to get scary because Ray seems to have solved his lone remaining issue. He’s allowed just a single home run and four barrels over his last five starts. While his 2.79 ERA is below all of his estimators (89.5 LOB%), though the worst is just a 3.65 FIP. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ and 15.9 HR/FB vs LHP with marginal strikeout totals in the projected lineup, but Ray did set a season high with 13 strikeouts in his only outing against the White Sox this year. Wheeler and Beuhler are your highest floors and certainly can compete for the top ceilings as well, while the remaining three are all fine GPP upside plays, where going against projected ownership may be your best play tonight.

Rockies-Cubs postponed due to inclement weather Tuesday

Tuesday night’s matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather. The teams will play a split doubleheader on Wednesday, August 25th featuring two seven-inning games scheduled for 2:20pm EST and 6:30pm EST, respectively.

Tyler O'Neill (undisclosed) scratched Tuesday

O’Neill is a late scratch from Tuesday’s lineup due to a presently undisclosed reason. In his place, Lars Nootbaar will receive the start in left field and bat sixth in the updated Cardinals order.

Lineups Opposing Top Projected Offenses Offer Value Too

On a 14 game slate where only four teams exceed five runs, you can bet that the two offenses with team totals above five and a half runs (Red Sox, Angels) are going to be heavily owned. While a very large part of that has to do with opposing pitching, a lot of it has to do with the park/environment too. Weather Edge currently suggests that Fenway could play like Coors tonight and Camden, already a power boosting park, could be even more slugger friendly with some very nice weather. The key here is not to sleep on the opposing offenses in these spots. Perhaps a bit easier in Baltimore, as the Orioles have the fifth highest team total on the board (4.95) and batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Dylan Bundy this year. Cedric Mullins (152 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP this year) is one of the top bats on the board and D.J. Stewart (101 wRC+, .200 ISO) potentially one of the top values for less than $2.5K on either site.

The Minnesota side in Fenway is a bit more difficult to justify with just a 3.93 implied run line against a pitcher who has been dominant. In 34.2 major league innings, Tanner Houck has generated a 31.9 K% (second best on the board) with just a 4.9 BB% and 87.1 mph EV. In fact, his 3.12 ERA is right in line with his 3.13 xERA, but he’s only completed five innings twice, the Minnesota lineup still includes several quality bats and, much like Coors, no pitcher should be considered invincible under these conditions. Now, Houck has held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA, but generally only goes through the order twice before giving way to a bullpen with a 5.21 ERA and 4.50 xFIP over the last 30 days. Jorge Polanco (130 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP). Max Kepler (112 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Luis Arraez (127 wRC+, .099 ISO) are the most interesting here. Polanco costs less than $4K on DraftKings, Kepler just over $3K on FanDuel and while Arraez has not shown much power, his .366 xwOBA against RHP is actually higher than his real wOBA (.357) and he still costs less than $3K on either site.

Inability to Throw Strikes Gives This Lineup Tremendous Value

Whenever you have a minimally priced hitter projected to bat leadoff, he’s nearly automatically one of the top values on the board, but we can add a few extra elements in favor of Lane Thomas tonight. Thomas has just 32 PAs against LHP this year, but with a 233 wRC+ and four extra-base hits. Use his career numbers and that’s only 51 PAs with a 183 wRC+. That’s a very small something, but RHBs also have a .409 wOBA (.360 xwOBA) against Jesus Luzardo this season. Luzardo still clearly has the stuff to be dominant (15.7 SwStr%, 86.7 mph EV since joining the Marlins), but he’s also struck out only one more than he’s walked for Miami (17 to 16). A walk and a run just about gets the job done here. Despite recent subtractions, this Washington lineup still has a few bats who can handle LHP, including Josh Bell (115 wRC+, .265 ISO), Carter Kieboom (114 wRC+, .171 ISO) and Juan Soto (129 wRC+, .227 ISO). Kieboom is below $3K on either site as well. In fact, five of eight projected batters for Washington are priced below $3K on DK, which could give this lineup tremendous value if Luzardo can’t find the plate again.

Top Bat and Low Priced Lineup in a Smash Spot

There are only two bullpens in the majors with three estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) all above five over the last month and both teams are starting well below average pitchers. In the case of Washington (5.98, 5.93, 5.35), Erick Fedde has a 7.20 ERA over his last 10 starts with just an 8.9 K-BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE (90.8 mph EV). He does have a 3.91 DRA this season, but no other estimator below 4.20. LHBs have a .348 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against Fedde this year. Yet, despite all this, their opponents have merely a 4.25 implied run line. That’s because the Nationals are facing the Marlins in Miami with a projected lineup including just two LHBs (Jazz Chisholm 103 wRC+ vs RHP & Jesus Sanchez 96 wRC+). However, Sanchez costs just $2.3K on FanDuel and is projected to hit cleanup.

A more smash worthy spot is in Baltimore (5.94, 5.50, 5.05), Spenser Watkins has thrown 40 major league innings with a 14 K% (7.6 SwStr%), 36.3 GB% and 90.1 mph EV, resulting in a 5.63 ERA that’s within half a run of all his estimators. Watkins has shown a reverse split (.381 wOBA, .394 xwOBA) and will likely be facing a predominantly RH lineup, but LHBs have hit him well too (.327 wOBA, .329 xwOBA). The entire lineup is playable in this spot, but Shohei Ohtani (173 wRC+, .367 ISO vs RHP this year) is easily the top bat on this slate outside Fenway, as the Angels have the second highest team total on the board (5.55), behind only the Red Sox (6.07). The ridiculous thing is that Ohtani is the only batter in the Los Angeles projected lineup who costs more than $3K on FanDuel, giving the entire lineup tremendous value in this spot.

An Abundance of Competent, Middle of the Board Arms

There are so many interesting middle of the board and even lower priced arms tonight. More than we can probably cover in such a short space, so we’ll add a few quick hits below for your SP2 types. At the top of the second tier though, are German Marquez and Luis Garcia. Marquez is one of the few pitchers in the league combining an above average strikeout rate (25.1%) with more than half his contact on the ground (52.3%). He’s generated 16 quality starts this season with his 3.80 ERA nearly matching a 3.90 SIERA and 3.79 xERA. The lineup he’s projected to oppose at Wrigley includes four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP and while getting out of Coors is always a positive, a hot night at Wrigley with the wind blowing out is about the least positive you can get on the road. Marquez is still likely a strong value, especially on DraftKings for just $8.2K.

Garcia produced his lowest strikeout total (three) since his first start of the season last time out, as the Astros pulled him after just 70 pitches, his lowest pitch count since April, although he had allowed just four hits and a walk. If we assume that was just a single aberration and not the beginning of a larger pattern of conservation yet, he has a spectacular 21.3 K-BB%, allowing just 4.8% Barrels/BBE this season. A 2.53 xERA is his only estimator below his 3.30 ERA, but all remaining estimators are within one-third of a run of actual results. The Royals have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP, while five of nine projected batters exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP. Garcia costs just $8.3K on FanDuel, where he’s likely a top value.

Andrew Heaney has allowed 16 runs and nine home runs in 22 innings as a Yankee. With a career 15.8 HR/FB, he’s going to have some problems with Yankee Stadium, but he also should be fairly effective, due to a 19.5 K-BB% this year. His FIP (4.76) and xERA (3.92) are well below his 5.51 ERA. He’s also not on the road tonight, but in a potentially more unfavorable park in Atlanta, though four of eight projected starters exceed a 25 K% vs LHP and Heaney costs just $7.5K on DraftKings. In the same price range, Eli Morgan has struck out at least eight three times but the contact profile is a real issue with just a 26.7 GB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE. The projected Texas lineup he’ll face includes six batters above a 24 K% vs RHP this year.

The matchup in Pittsburgh includes two somewhat interesting arms in favorable matchups. Madison Bumgarner has a 1.93 ERA in seven starts back from the IL with just a 17 K% (7.9 SwStr%), meaning estimators are quite a bit higher, though not terrible (4.58 xFIP). Two things Bumgarner has done well over this stretch is throw strikes (five walks) and limit hard contact (5.6% Barrels/BBE, 87.1 mph EV). His 4.06 season ERA exactly matches his FIP and nearly his xERA (3.98) too. There is one batter in the projected Pittsburgh lineup below a 23 K% vs LHP this year. J.T. Brubaker continues to strike out batters at a decent rate (22.8% last night starts), but now also has a 10.8 BB% over his last six and has allowed multiple home runs in seven of his last nine starts with 17 in total over that span. He’s done this with just 33.6% of his contact on the ground and a 90 mph EV. The projected Arizona lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, but includes just one batter above a .175 ISO vs RHP this year. Both pitchers cost $7.1K or less on DraftKings.

Tylor Megill ($6.9K DK) threw his first quality start in five starts last time out, but is still running a 3.21 ERA with all estimators below four through 11 starts. He faces the Giants (107 wRC+ vs RHP) at home. In four starts for the Marlins, Jesus Luzardo ($6.4K DK) has struck out one more than he’s walked (17 to 16), but does have a 15.7 SwStr% with an 86.7 mph EV. The stuff is certainly still there if he can find a way to stop walking everyone. The projected Washington lineup he’ll face in Miami has just two batters above a 20.1 K% vs LHP this year though. In 34.2 major league innings, Tanner Houck has generated a 31.9 K% (second best on the board) with just a 4.9 BB% and 87.1 mph EV. In fact, his 3.12 ERA is right in line with his 3.13 xERA, but below most additional estimators, due to a .352 BAIBP and 65.4 LOB%. He’s actually much cheaper on FanDuel, but has completed five innings just twice. While the projected Minnesota lineup includes four batters above a 27 K% vs RHP, Weather Edge currently suggests Fenway could play like Coors tonight.

A Clear Top Pitching Choice Plus a Riskier, High Reward Option

Strikeout totals for Corbin Burns over his last three starts are three, 15 and five. The 89 pitches he threw last time out against the Cardinals were a six start low as well. Burnes easily tops the board with a 35.1 K%, in addition to a 4.6 BB%, 50.5 GB% and 85.2 mph EV (2.7% Barrels/BBE). He’s thrown a quality start in seven of his last nine attempts and has just a single estimators (2.57 SIERA) above two and a half this season. As the only pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites (or even reach it on DraftKings), Burnes is easily the top pitcher on the board in a vacuum. The one thing we need to keep in the back of our minds is that Craig Counsel has been randomly pulling starters early on occasion without advanced notice, in order to preserve them for a post-season run. It hasn’t happened often, but it has happened. He’ll be facing a powerful offense (Reds 109 wRC+, 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but in a neutral park (Reds 97 wRC+, 14.2 HR/FB on the road). Five of eight projected Reds sit between a 22 and 25% strikeout rate vs RHP this season. If your only concern is raw point total, Burnes is probably your man and maybe even one of the better values on the board too.

Jack Flaherty is the only other pitcher to reach $10K on either site, doing so on FanDuel and missing by $400 on DK. While Jack Flaherty has struck out 13 of 42 batters since returning from the IL, he’s done so with just an 8.7 SwStr% and slightly reduced velocity. The Brewers took him deep twice last time out, the only two runs he’s allowed in 12 innings since returning. On the season, all estimators are more than a run above his 2.68 ERA, ranging from a 3.69 FIP to a 4.18 xERA. That said, the Tigers have an 89 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP with only three in the projected lineup below a 22 K%. Detroit is missing key bats and lose the DH tonight in one of the more negative run environments in the league. All of which puts Flaherty in the usable category, though he’s probably efficiently priced.

A few more pitchers exceed $9K on both sites, starting with one of the more interesting arms on the board in Charlie Morton. Over his last 12 starts, Charlie Morton has a 30.6 K%, 2.55 ERA, 2.78 FIP and 3.19 xFIP. He also has 10 quality starts over that span. His overall estimators are very similar to his first season in Tampa Bay. In terms of matchup and environment, problematically, a powerful Yankee lineup receives a park upgrade. Optimistically, they lose the DH and six of eight projected starters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP this year. Consider Morton a slightly risky, high reward option tonight.

Julio Urias hit the IL 10 days ago with a calf issue. He has completed five innings and only five innings in each of his last three starts and has exactly five strikeouts in four of his last five. Efficiency (21.1 K-BB%) and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE (86.1 mph EV) have led Urias to 10 quality starts this season. His 3.29 ERA is slightly below estimators tightly packed between 3.37 (FIP) and 3.64 (xFIP). The projected San Diego lineup includes just one batter above a 22.5 K% vs LHP this year. Lastly, coming off two great starts against the Phillies and Pirates (14 IP – 2R – 17 K), Tyler Mahle surrendered two home runs and five runs overall to the Cubs last time out. He’s had some long ball issues since the sticky stuff ban (12 in 11 starts) with other facets of his game remaining similar, though a small drop in his strikeout rate to 26.2%. He has a post-ban 4.26 ERA, 4.80 FIP and 4.15 xFIP. His cost would seem slightly excessive against a revamped Milwaukee lineup that does feature five projected batters with at least a 24 K% vs RHP, but nobody else above 19.1%.

Matt Chapman (left foot contusion) scratched Monday

Chapman is a late scratch from Monday’s lineup due to a left foot contusion he sustained from a foul ball in Sunday’s contest. In his absence, Josh Harrison will move to third base, and Sean Murphy will enter the lineup as Oakland’s designated hitter this evening.

A Reverse Split, Contact Profile Issues and Park Upgrade for this Dangerous Lineup

A 4.75 implied run line ties the Yankees with their opponents for the second best total on the board. Huascar Ynoa is the least expensive pitcher with an above average strikeout rate on the board and there are a couple of potential reasons for that. First, despite the strikeouts, Ynoa has some contact profile issues, including a 91.1 mph EV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE and 17.5 HR/FB. This all factors in to generate a 4.57 xERA that’s nearly two runs above his actual 2.70 ERA. Then there’s also the fact that Atlanta is one of the more positive run environments in baseball and an actual upgrade for Yankee hitters overall, while Ynoa has exhibited a reverse split this year (.319 wOBA to .214), which is supported by his Statcast numbers (.342 xwOBA to .298). This immediately makes Aaron Judge (136 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP this year) one of the top bats on the board. Much more cheaply, especially on DraftKings, are Giancarlo Stanton (128 wRC+, .212 ISO) and DJ LeMahieu (103 wRC+, .115 ISO). Judge, Stanton and Anthony Rizzo (99 wRC+, .195 ISO) are the three hottest bats in the projected Yankee lineup, each with at least a 140 wRC+ or better over the last 30 days.

Underlying Numbers Suggest Hidden Top Bat Tonight

A 4.45 implied run line puts the Oakland Athletics in the middle of the board against Marco Gonzales, who has pitched to a 1.43 ERA over his last six starts, behind a substantial drop in exit velocity (85.6 mph) and barrels (5.6%). Gonzales still has contact neutral estimators above four over that span and a 4.78 SIERA, 5.74 xERA (12.1% Barrels/BBE) on the season. Considering the RHBs own a .375 wOBA with LHBs over 150 points lower (.224), a right-handed Oakland stack seems in order. However, looking at some additional numbers, suggests that Matt Olson might be the best play in this lineup and maybe even one of the best plays on the board. We’ll start with Olsen’s remarkable numbers against same-handed pitching this season (164 wRC+, .335 ISO) and then include some Statcast numbers on Gonzales, which push LHBs up to a .389 xwOBA, which is a 165 point increase. Lastly, playing in the same division, Gonzales and Olsen have matched up quite frequently in recent years with Olson holding a big advantage, including four home runs and a .363 xwOBA in just 38 PAs.

Two of the Worst Bullpens Face Off in Pittsburgh

Eight of 12 offenses on Monday are tightly compacted between a 4.25 and 4.75 team total with only the Houston Astros (5.59) exceeding that number. Two of those middling teams will play in Pittsburgh tonight, where it’s far from the two most interesting offenses in the league, but the Diamondbacks and Pirates do own two of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last month. Arizona relievers have a 5.59 ERA, 4.57 FIP and 5.17 xFIP over the last 30 days, while their Pittsburgh counterparts own a 5.59 ERA, 4.98 FIP and 5.01 xFIP. As for starting pitching, Humberto Mejia, part of the return for Starling Marte last year, makes his team debut. He has a 14.2 K-BB% (10.5 SwStr%) and 33.7 GB% with seven home runs allowed over 54.2 AAA innings this year. Last year, he allowed three home runs (seven barrels) over just 10 innings with the Marlins. Bryan Reynolds (143 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this season) is easily the best hitter remaining on this team and likely a decent value for just $4.3K on DraftKings and $3.2K on FanDuel. The opposing pitcher is Wil Crowe (5.23 ERA, 4.90 SIERA, 5.44 xERA). Crowe actually has a fairly sizeable reverse split with RHBs owning a .406 wOBA and .389 xwOBA against him this year and LHBs holding just a .325 wOBA (.301 xwOBA). That may make Christian Walker (77 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but 93 wRC+ last 30 days overall) one of the more interesting DraftKings bats for just $2.3K, as he’s projected to bat cleanup. Projected leadoff man, Josh Rojas (127 wRC+, .173 ISO) isn’t right-handed, but has been on fire with a 193 wRC+ over the last month. Rojas and Ketel Marte (112 wRC+, .126 ISO) are the only two projected batters for the Diamondbacks who cost more than $3.4K on DraftKings.

The Best of Some Difficult Pitching Choices on Monday

No pitcher reaches $10K on both sites on a six game Monday night slate, but Lance Lynn misses being the most expensive pitcher on both sites by just $100 on DraftKings and is the only pitcher to reach $10K on FanDuel, landing within $100 of that mark on either site. Nine runs in 20 innings over his last four starts have pushed Lance Lynn’s ERA up to 2.26, still more than a run below every estimator except for a 2.60 xERA (6.1% Barrels/BBE). The one significant concern here is a 8.2 SwStr% or lower in five of his last six starts. Lynn is also facing one of the top offenses in the league (Blue Jays 112 wRC+ vs RHP) in Toronto with only one batter in the projected lineup above a 23 K% vs RHP this year. There are enough reasons here to fade Lynn in this spot.

The only $10K pitcher (costing exactly that much) on DraftKings is…Jordan Montgomery?? He allowed three runs over just 4.2 innings after spending a couple of weeks on the COVID IL, but did strikeout six of 19 Red Sox. His 3.76 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-DRA estimators and does top the board with a 13.5 SwStr% (24.6 K%). He actually gets a park downgrade in Atlanta. The Braves have a 101 wRC+ and 16.1 HR/FB vs LHP, but remade their lineup at the deadline. Four of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs LHP this season. Montgomery costs $2K less on FanDuel, where he may be the top value on the board.

Additionally reaching $9K on FanDuel and in the upper $8K range on DraftKings are Alek Manoah and Zack Greinke. Manoah was shelled by the Nats last time out, allowing more than two earned runs for only the third time in 12 starts. Strikeouts and SwStr% have been inconsistent. Overall numbers include a 19.8 K-BB% and 86.7 mph EV. A 3.34 ERA is right in line with a 3.37 xERA with additional estimators averaging a bit under four. The biggest issue here is that the White Sox have a 108 wRC+ vs RHP, although four of the projected nine exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year. Manoah is a better value for $1.1K less on DraftKings.

Greinke followed up one of his highest strikeout totals of the season (seven) with a big fat zero. No walks, no home runs, just a single run and less than a point differential in his SwStr% over both starts though. An 80.3 LOB% is all that stands between him and an ERA above four this year, where all of his estimators reside. Greinke’s 17.9 K% is third lowest on the board. The Royals have an 85 wRC+ and 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP with five of their projected nine above a 25.5 K% vs RHP this year, but Greinke’s last start, the one without a strikeout, that was the Royals too.

The bottom line here is to consider skipping pitcher tonight if possible, but if that’s not an option, we only have four of 12 pitchers on the slate above a 21 K% tonight and they all have some pretty tough matchups, the only one not covered above is Huascar Ynoa (91.1 mph EV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE), facing the Yankees in Atlanta. The point is, you’re taking a sizeable risk, no matter what you do and if you’re considering paying down and looking at a higher floor instead, it’s not like Kyle Hendricks (4.04 ERA, 79.3 LOB%) has been safe either. His best estimators is a 4.49 xFIP. He may have the top matchup on the board against the Rockies though (65 wRC+, 9.4 HR/FB on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP).

Top Value Bats on Friday Night

Not a lot has gone right for the Colorado Rockies this year, most of it the fault of the people who run the organization. Maybe the only correct decision anyone in management has made this year was inserting Connor Joe into the leadoff spot on a daily basis and even that was only the result of an injury to an inferior player. Joe has responded with a 134 wRC+ and .279 ISO vs LHP this season and if you’re concerned about the small sample size, his xwOBA (.404) is even higher than his actual wOBA (.397) against southpaws. Perhaps you’re still concerned (sarcasm) because the opposing pitcher has never allowed a single hit as a major league starter in his career. As a starter, Tyler Gilbert has also struck out just five of 28 batters faced, walking three with a 29.6 GB% and 91.1 mph EV. This reads like one of the more fortunate no-hitters you’ve ever seen and Gilbert doesn’t have the track record to back up his performance either. In fact, the 27 year-old hasn’t been named on any Fangraphs prospect list since December of 2018 and has been a reliever throughout his minor league career until this season. Oddsmakers are not buying either. The Rockies have the highest implied run line on the board (6.66) and Joe costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, making this a much easier stack to achieve, though also likely running up ownership rates.

Joe is the rare player who costs more on FanDuel ($3.6K) than DK, so who’s helping to clear the path towards an $11.6K Walker Buehler on that site? Some of those cheap bats may be found in the Angels’ lineup. They have a moderate 4.75 team total tonight, but RHBs have a .430 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) against projected Cleveland starters Sam Hentges. Hentges has been held to 10 batters in each of his last two starts, serving more as an opener, but the Cleveland bullpen behind him has been pretty awful over the last 30 days with a matching 4.70 ERA and FIP. Both Phil Gosselin (131 wRC+ vs LHP this season) and Justin Upton (135 wRC+, .261 ISO) cost $2.7K or less on either site tonight. Lastly, there’s the curious price of Gary Sanchez (139 wRC+, .311 ISO vs LHP this season) on FanDuel ($2.5K) against Charlie Barnes, who has struck out just nine of the 78 major league batters he’s faced with a 6.6 SwStr%, 34.4 GB% and 91.5 mph EV. The Yankees have the top implied run line outside Coors tonight at 6.47.