DFS Alerts

Akil Baddoo

Milwaukee Brewers
8/03/21, 1:37 PM ET

RHBs Have Nearly a .400 wOBA Against This Pitcher

Outside weather and ownership, there may not be any other reasons to avoid Coors bats tonight, even with the Cubs’ lineup being gutted by the trade deadline. However, if players are looking for a great matchup that may be a bit more off the radar for most players, let’s travel to Detroit, where the home team carries a modest 4.57 implied run line. Garrett Richards seems to have solved his control issue for the second time this season, walking a single batter in each of his last three starts, but he’s still not striking anybody out (12.2 K% last eight starts) and has allowed 10 home runs over his last six starts. A 4.87 xFIP is his only estimator below five. LHBs have hit him well this season (.342 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), but RHBs have really smashed him (.395 wOBA, .389 xwOBA). Those kind of numbers make below average hitters rosterable tonight, though we’d certainly like to start with the best Detroit hitter this year and that’s leadoff make Akil Baddoo (147 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP) who still costs within $300 of $3.5K on either site. Robbie Grossman (107 wRC+, .172 ISO) is another potential value bat, just $3.1K on DraftKings. He also has a 151 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The hottest bat in this lineup over the last month though, is Jeimer Candelario (165 wRC+ L30 days, 111 wRC+ vs RHP). In fact, Jonathan Schoop and Willi Castro are the only two batters in tonight’s projected lineup below a 105 wRC+ over the last month and Schoop, along with Eric Haase (93 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP) are the only two costing above $4K on DraftKIngs or $3.2K on FanDuel. Loading up against this struggling pitcher should leave plenty of room to pay up for pitching.

Austin Slater

New York Mets
8/03/21, 1:25 PM ET

A Top Offense That May Include Top Values

While Madison Bumgarner has allowed just four earned runs over 18 innings since returning from the IL, he’s allowed three unearned ones, striking out just 11 of 70 batters with an 8.3 SwStr%. On the season, even a 10.4 HR/FB affords him just a 4.20 FIP, which is the lowest of his estimators. Arizona (with the roof closed) is one of the few positive run environments on the slate and while RHBs have just a .308 wOBA against Bumgarner this year, Statcast pushes that up to a .323 xwOBA that’s more attractive to daily fantasy players. All of this adds up to a 5.45 implied run line for the Giants that’s currently a top five mark on the board and also gives them some of the top value bats on the slate, especially on FanDuel where both Austin Slater (122 wRC+, .203 ISO vs LHP this season) and Darin Ruf (171 wRC+, .329 ISO) both cost less than $2.5K. The latter has a projected lineup leading 211 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Rostering these two will help make a top half of the lineup stack, including a much more expensive Kris Bryant (199 wRC+, .367 ISO) much more affordable tonight.

Yan Gomes

Chicago Cubs
8/03/21, 1:15 PM ET

All RHBs Above a 100 wRC+ Against This Struggling Lefty

The San Diego/Oakland game currently doesn’t have official team totals because Sean Manaea has not yet been confirmed, but considering it’s the most negative run environment on the slate according to Statcast Park Factors, there’s a chance individual team totals might not be that high. One reason the A’s might have a higher team total though, is the recent performance of Blake Snell. Over his last seven starts, he has just a 1.4 K-BB% with a 6.70 ERA and estimators above five. He has a 14.3 BB%, allowing 10.8% Barrels/BBE, while RHBs have pummeled him for a .380 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) this season. All seven of the projected RHBs for Oakland exceed a 100 wRC+ this season with the most potent of them also potentially one of the top values on the board in Yan Gomes (179 wRC+, .333 ISO), who costs less than $2.5K on either site. Mark Canha (129 wRC+, .183 ISO), Ramon Laureano (140 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Josh Harrison (136 wRC+, .163 ISO) are also bats of interest here, all costing less than $4K on either site tonight. Aside from the stadium, one other concern here would be that the Padres do own one of the better bullpens in the league and Snell doesn’t normally go very deep into games, but perhaps enough damage will be done before he exits that the A’s will be seeing the bottom of that pen, rather than the top.

Rhys Hoskins

Cleveland Guardians
8/03/21, 1:01 PM ET

Things Keep Getting Worse For This Pitcher (11.1 K% in July)

It just keeps getting worse and worse for Patrick Corbin. He had just an 11.1 K% in five July starts, allowing seven home runs. Now with a single digit K-BB%, he doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half, but does have a few above five. RHBs have a .379 wOBA (.378 xwOBA) against him this season and he’s projected to face six of those tonight against the Phillies, all above a 100 wRC+ against southpaws this season. However, with Rhys Hoskins expected to return tonight, he’s the only batter in tonight’s projected lineup above a .200 ISO vs LHP this season (148 wRC+, .331 ISO) and also has a 191 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Should he return, he’d potentially be one of the top bats on the slate, though Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Luke Williams all exceed a 120 wRC+ vs LHP as well, the latter still minimally priced, while all four are $3.1K or less on FanDuel. Considering the Washington bullpen subtracted key pieces and has a 6.43 ERA (5.07 FIP) over the last 30 days too, this is a potential blow up spot for the Phillies in one of the few positive run environments on the board tonight. Despite all this, the Phillies have just a 4.55 implied run line that finds them right in the middle of tonight’s board.

Eduardo Escobar

Los Angeles Angels
8/03/21, 12:52 PM ET

This Bullpen Was Trending South Before Trading Off

On a full 15 game slate, one theme is negative run environments. According to Statcast Park Factors, just three parks in play tonight would qualify as a positive run environment and the most positive of them, Coors, is the only game with weather related concern. There are six domes on the slate as well and those of you with LineupHQ premium access may notice that a few of those dome games may include very hitter friendly umpires, perhaps improving the offensive outlook in these spots. The slate includes two teams (Yankees & Rockies) above six implied runs with six more at least half a run lower, but above five. There are also two games still lacking run totals at all in Oakland and Miami.

The Brewers are one of those well projected teams with a hitter friendly umpire and a perfectly neutral run environment, but that’s not the only reason they’re expected to score some runs. Max Kranick has the same 12 K-BB% over four major league starts that he had through six AAA ones. He has just a 33.3 GB% with a 92.5 mph EV that should spell trouble and it has, but rather than home runs (one), it’s shown up in a .377 BABIP. Non-FIP estimators are no lower than a 4.71 SIERA. LHBs have a .372 wOBA (.340 xwOBA) against Kranick, but RHBs have hit him well too (.342 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). The Pirates also have the only bullpen in the majors over the last 30 days with both a FIP (5.34) and xFIP (5.16) above five, while also trading the better pieces of that bullpen away last week. Meanwhile, the Brewers have added pieces to their lineup, like Eduardo Escobar (106 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP this season). In fact, even without Christian Yelich, tonight’s projected lineup includes just one batter below a .160 ISO vs RHP this season. Willy Adames (131 wRC+, .223 ISO) has really taken off since coming to Milwaukee. Avisail Garcia (95 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Tyrone Taylor (97 wRC+, .181 ISO) each have a 130 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall and are mostly affordably priced. Taylor is still below $3K on either site.

Plenty of Pitching Upside in the $8 to $9K Range

8/03/21, 12:25 PM ET

With several of the top priced pitchers having difficult matchups tonight, there are a few pitchers, all in the $8K to $9K range, with significant upside that players should be looking at tonight as alternatives. Dylan Cease’s estimators are wrapped in a fairly tight package that runs from a 3.61 FIP to a 3.96 xFIP, all at least a bit lower than his 4.14 ERA that doesn’t fully capture his breakout this season with a 20 K-BB%. While he has allowed 9.6% Barrels/BBE, the Royals have a 78 wRC+ and 11.6 HR/FB on the road and just an 86 wRC+ with a 10.3 HR/FB vs RHP. They also just traded away one of their few power bats. The team has a 52 wRC+ and 19.9 K-BB% over the last week. With four batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP this year too, Cease may not only be one of the better values on the board, but potentially one of it’s top arms.

That last sentence could apply to Yusei Kikuchi too. His schedule has been riddled with offenses that pummel left-handed pitchers. Go look at his game log. He must be relieved to finally catch a break against a Tampa Bay offense with just a 92 wRC+ and board high 27.1 K% vs LHP this year. What’s that you say? They now have Nelson Cruz? Well…still, it’s a negative run environment (second most negative on the board behind Oakland, according to Statcast Park Factors) and the projected lineup includes five batters above a 23.5 K% vs LHP this season. Kikuchi has allowed 19 runs over his last 21 innings to the Astros, A’s, Angels and Yankees with six home runs and a .436 BABIP, but has also struck out 31 of 99 batters over that span. That he has even a league average ERA and estimators against his particular schedule this year, suggests that he might be a bit better than the stats portray.

Kenta Maeda has been looking quite a bit healthier lately. He registered a 33 K% (15.8 SwStr%) with just six walks in five July starts with a 2.15 ERA, 2.30 FIP and 3.00 xFIP. The matchup is somewhat of a drawback here. The Reds have a 108 wRC+ (18.2 HR/FB) at home and 106 wRC+ (15.8 HR/FB) vs RHP. They play in the most power friendly environment in baseball and only two of eight projected batters exceed a 23 K% vs RHP this season. However, these circumstances should also keep ownership down and if Maeda is healthy, $8K on both sites should still be a bargain.

For those paying up and looking for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings, Johnny Cueto has a 20.3 K-BB% over his last seven starts with a 3.63 ERA and 3.53 xFIP. Statcast still hates him (4.74 xERA), but his 3.84 ERA is very much in line with his FIP (3.92) and xFIP (3.90) this season. Arizona is a slightly positive run environment with the roof closed, but the projected lineup includes just one batter above a 100 wRC+ and none above a .170 ISO vs RHP this season. Cueto costs exactly $7K on DraftKings.

Top Choice Becomes Fairly Clear with Cole Out

8/03/21, 11:52 AM ET

Gerrit Cole’s positive COVID test leaves us with just one pitcher above $10K on both sites tonight. Walker Buehler has been on fire, as is the pitcher he’s facing, Lance McCullers, who is above $9K on both sites. Buehler has failed to produce a quality start in just three of 21 starts this year. While a reasonable complaint was a reduced strikeout rate earlier in the summer, he’s up to 31.4% over his last four starts and 26.6% on the season. His 2.19 ERA is still well below estimators (.233 BABIP, 83.5 LOB%), but none run higher than a 3.62 SIERA. McCullers has struck out at least eight in five straight games (exactly eight in four of the five) and Uncle Dusty has been pushing him, hitting the 100 pitch count in four of the five. He’s generated just 5.3% Barrels/BBE with a 90.5 mph EV this year because most his contact (54.5%) has been on the ground and while he walks too many (11.7%), he’s been below 10% over his last four starts. This may be the best stretch we’ve ever seen from him, even if he’s allowed eight runs over his last 11 innings (one home run). His 3.23 ERA is quite a bit below his 4.03 SIERA, but right in line with a 3.18 xERA. The problem here is that the Dodgers have a 113 wRC+ and the Astros a 119 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Not only that, but the projected Dodger and Astro lineups include just a combined six batters above a 19 K% vs RHP this year. While they’re fine as leverage plays, especially at $9.1K for McCullers on DraftKings, there are plenty of better choices on a full 15 game slate.

We can start with Zach Wheeler, who may be the top overall arm on the board tonight and the leading NL Cy Young candidate. Not only does he combine a now board leading 29.8 K% with a 5.8 BB%, but more than half his contact (50.4%) has been on the ground and opponents have just an 84.8 mph EV (4.2% Barrels/BBE) when they do make contact. He’s completed seven innings in 13 of 21 starts and his 3.12 SIERA is the only estimator above three. The Nationals have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP, but this depleted lineup is even worse with only four projected batters above a 70 wRC+ and .115 ISO vs RHP this season. The only drawback is that nobody in the projected lineup exceeds a 24 K% vs RHP. Wheeler checks all the boxes tonight.

Additional pitchers hitting the $10K price point on at least one site tonight are Sean Manaea ($10K FD) and Tyler Mahle ($10K DK). No other pitcher is above $9K on both sites. Mahle’s price tag is absurd. It’s tough to even call him a value for $2.1K less on FanDuel. He pitches in one of the most difficult parks in the league and has allowed seven home runs over his last four home starts. In his last start, at Wrigley, he didn’t allow a home run and walked just one, but struck out just two of 24 Cubs (6.8 SwStr%). He’d walked a total of 15 over his previous four starts. Manaea has sustained excellent control (6.0 BB%) with a 35.5 K% over his last seven starts. He’s done this with a 14.8 SwStr%, generating nearly half his contact (48.4%) on the ground with an 87.8 mph EV. His highest non-DRA estimator this season is a 3.66 xERA. He’s facing a San Diego offense that gains a DH today, but has just a 96 wRC+ vs LHP this year and won’t have Fernando Tatis Jr. either. While five of nine projected batters are below a 17.5 K% vs LHP this season, Manaea just shout out this lineup on one hit over six innings with nine strikeouts last time out. He’s a reasonable choice and $600 cheaper on DraftKings tonight, but those who don’t have any ownership concerns should stick with Wheeler if paying up.

Omar Narvaez

Texas Rangers
8/02/21, 12:23 PM ET

LHBs Have Smashed This Recently Traded Pitcher

While the Pirates hope the trade landing them Bryse Wilson will pay off in the long term, the more immediate beneficiaries may be left-handed Milwaukee bats. Wilson has really done nothing very well through eight starts, but the 15 K% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE are probably what have done the most damage. A 4.86 DRA is his only estimator below five, though all are a bit below his 5.88 ERA (.345 BABIP). While batters from either side of the plate have had great success against Wilson, Statcast drops RHBs over 50 points to a league average .313 xwOBA, but confirms LHBs above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA. In a neutral run environment, the Brewers are one of four teams above five implied runs and may potentially be the least valued of the four by players due to their 81 wRC+ vs RHP this year. However, that doesn’t signal that tonight’s particular lineup is bereft of talent, as only one of eight projected starters is below a .164 ISO vs RHP this year or 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Rowdy Tellez (86 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP) costs $3K or less on either site and leads the lineup with a 172 wRC+ since being picked up by the Brewers. Omar Narvaez (128 wRC+, .165 ISO) is affordably priced behind the plate as well.

Bryce Harper

Philadelphia Phillies
8/02/21, 12:11 PM ET

One Potential Contrarian Play on a Short Slate

If tonight’s slate features a shortage of usable pitchers, then there certainly must be lots of offensive fire power available. That’s partially true. Four of the 14 teams exceed five implied runs, including the Yankees in their post-trade deadline return home with new left-handed power with a team total reaching six, nearly a full half run above any other offense. Yet, none the remaining 10 teams are above four and a half implied runs, though that’s not necessarily due to pitching prowess as much as it is negative run environments and below average offenses. There’s also the game in Texas without a posted total yet.

The good news, or perhaps bad from an ownership perspective, is that affordable pitching means you’ll probably be able to jam a bunch of top bats into your lineup tonight. One of the more interesting lineups tonight, and potentially overlooked tonight, is the Phillies. Currently at 4.36 implied runs, they’re the best of the teams below five implied runs and Josiah Gray’s prospect status and high strikeout rates could turn potential buyers off. However, Gray has also walked five of 35 batters with four home runs allowed and just 29.4% of his contact on the ground with a 90.7 mph EV. He allowed another three home runs in 15.2 AAA innings. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Gray in this small sample. This is an instance where exposure to both sides of this matchup is certainly justified. One of the highest upside bats on the slate is Bryce Harper (169 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP this year), who has a projected lineup leading 197 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Should Travis Jankowski (139 wRC+) find his way near the top of the lineup, he could be one of the top values on the board at under $3K on either site and just above the minimum on FanDuel. His .317 xwOBA is a 64 point drop from actual results against RHP this year, but still an average bat with a ton of potential value in this spot, where a walk in front of a Harper bomb just about pays off his price tag.

Josiah Gray

Washington Nationals
8/02/21, 11:44 AM ET

Top Strikeout Rates Also Come with Home Run Risk

With Anthony DeSclafani and Tylor Megill the only pitchers exceeding $9K on either site tonight, there’s no reason players have to pay up for pitching tonight, but this seven game board is also lacking a lot of mid-range upside tonight too, while, thankfully, there’s no need to scour the bottom of the board for a really cheap SP2. If you’re looking for mid-range upside though, the obvious thing to do is find the two highest strikeout rates on the board.

Andrew Heaney makes his Yankee debut tonight. You might be extremely concerned his prospects at Yankee Stadium (season and career 15.4 HR/FB), but Statcast park factors actually suggest that this is a park upgrade for him, both in terms of home runs and overall run environment. He’s had no problem missing bats (28.2 K%, 13.1 SwStr%), but aside from the home run rate, his .319 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% are both career worsts, so he’s still due some positive regression independent of the home runs. He has a 3.72 SIERA and 4.22 xERA. Problematically, the Orioles have a 109 wRC+ with just a 21.6 K% vs LHP this year, while they did nothing to change the composition of their lineup at the deadline. This is potentially why Heaney costs less than others with the top strikeout rate on the board (more than one start). Tonight’s projected Baltimore lineup features just three batters above a 20 K% vs LHP this season, but that doesn’t really make Heaney any less viable on this board.

One other arm with significant upside on tonight’s slate is a young pitcher making his debut with a new team, who has some very large shoes to fill. Josiah Gray will be taking Max Scherzer’s rotation spot and has struck out 13 of the 35 major league batters he’s faced with a 21.2 SwStr%, but has also walked five with four home runs, just 29.4% of his contact on the ground and a 90.7 mph EV. He hasn’t had a walk rate above 8.0% since Rookie ball and has only had a sub-15 SwStr% at one minor league stop. Prior to this season, he’d allowed in just under 200 minor league innings, but did allow three in just 15.2 AAA innings before being called up. Minor league ground ball rates have been in the mid-30s. In the most positive run environment on the board, against a contact prone Philadelphia lineup, there’s certainly some risk here and Gray has been limited to twice through the order with fewer than 80 pitches in both outings. However, this is a navigable spot, as the Phillies have just a 90 wRC+ vs RHP this year and Bryce Harper is the only projected batter above a .190 ISO vs RHP this season.

Anthony DeSclafani

Arizona Diamondbacks
8/02/21, 11:29 AM ET

The Top Pitching Options on a Difficult Board

The most expensive pitcher on a seven game slate that includes five potential dome games is Tylor Megill, who reaches $9.6K on DraftKings. Megill has come out of nowhere to become somewhat of a savior to the Mets’ rotation. In fact, an argument can be made that he’s been the top starter on the team since being called up. Over seven starts, he holds a 27.1 K%. While a 2.6% Barrels/BBE mark and 93 LOB% are likely to regress, his worst estimator is a 3.89 xFIP. Megill has five straight starts allowing one run or less. Should the roof be closed tonight, he would be pitching in the second most negative run environment, according to Statcast Park Factors, against a Miami offense with an 89 wRC+ vs RHP that has deducted from their lineup at the trade deadline. Of the eight projected position players tonight, four have a 21% or lower strikeout rate against RHP this year, while the remaining four strikeout at least a quarter of the time. Among those with more than one start this season, only Andrew Heaney has a higher strikeout rate tonight, but Megill has completed six innings just twice this year. However, he’s recorded sixth inning outs in three straight starts.

Within $300 of $9K on either site, Anthony DeSclafani is the only other pitcher to exceed $9K tonight, as he does so on DraftKings as well. In the 16 starts where he hasn’t faced the Dodgers, DeSclafani’s allowed just 21 of his 43 runs. That said, he’s also allowed 10 runs over his last 14.2 innings. The 16.7 K-BB% is good enough to keep estimators tightly packed between a 3.61 FIP and 4.04 SIERA, all more than half a run above his 3.10 ERA (.249 BABIP, 78.4 LOB%). The Diamondbacks have an 80 wRC+ and 9.1 HR/FB vs RHP, along with a 9.9 HR/FB at home, though their lineup has been in flux all season. Statcast Park Factors suggest the run environment is more positive with the roof closed in Arizona, as the team website states it will be tonight. Only Washington is a more positive run environment tonight, but the projected lineup for the Diamondbacks features four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year, just one batter above a .317 wOBA against RHP (Ketel Marte) and nobody above a .153 ISO. In a great spot, DeSclafani may be tonight’s top pitcher. While no pitcher on FanDuel exceeds $8.7K on FanDuel, none of tonight’s starters are averaging six innings per start. DeSclafani comes closest though.

Tyler O'Neill

Baltimore Orioles
7/30/21, 1:54 PM ET

The Immediate Beneficiaries of a Big Pitching Trade

The Toronto Blue Jays are certainly the team that benefits long term from acquiring Jose Berrios, but in the short term that forces Griffin Jax into a spot start and the immediate benefit is towards a predominantly right-handed St Louis lineup and daily fantasy players in salary cap bind. That’s because RHBs have a .437 wOBA (.394 xwOBA) against Jax in his small sample of work this year and because the Cardinals have a couple of cheap RHBs who have hammered same-handed pitching this year. Is it a break out or just a hot streak for Harrison Bader (136 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP), who costs just $2.5K on DK tonight? Regardless, he leads the entire projected lineup with a 187 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Tyler O’Neill has a bit larger sample with a 132 wRC+ and .252 ISO vs RHP this season. We don’t yet have an updated team total for the Cardinals tonight, but we can guess it will be a significant jump from when Berrios was expected to start tonight.

Ben Gamel

Atlanta Braves
7/30/21, 1:47 PM ET

This Lineup Has Been Surprisingly Productive Against RHP

The Pittsburgh lineup is not one that scares anybody at this point. The Pirates have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP this season and are implied for a marginal 4.28 runs tonight. However, a quick peak at the projected lineup tonight shows just one batter below a 99 wRC+ vs RHP this season and just two below a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Then we look at the price tags and realize that this may be where some of our value bats come from tonight. Starting against them is Vince Velasquez, who has retained all of the walks (12.7%) and blasts (11.1% Barrels/BBE), but with fewer strikeouts (24.2%). He’s actually struck out just 13 of his last 76 with a 9.0 SwStr%. He’s walked 11 with seven home runs over that span. On the season, LHBs have a .368 wOBA (.344 xwOBA against him). Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP in 2021) is the top bat in this lineup, but he’s also the one you have to pay a little bit for. Ben Gamel (117 wRC+, .286 ISO) is min-priced on DraftKings and projected to lead off tonight. Rodolfo Castro (136 wRC+, .529 ISO) has opened eyes in a hurry and still costs less than $3K on either site. Gregory Polanco (99 wRC+, .229 ISO) is within $100 of $2.5K on either site. Players could do a lot worse than a left-handed Pittsburgh stack if paying up in other spots tonight.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Toronto Blue Jays
7/30/21, 1:38 PM ET

This Lineup Pulverizes Lefties

The Blue Jays return to Toronto tonight for their first game north of the border since 2019 and to celebrate, oddsmakers had added a full run to their implied team total (6.34), making them the top offense on the board by nearly a full run. No, that’s now how it works. And Statcast suggests that the Rogers Centre has been somewhat of a neutral run environment in recent years, so it must be something else. Daniel Lynch is a well-regarded prospect, who is coming off eight shutout innings against Detroit, but he struck out just four of 28 batters in that game and he is a left-handed pitcher who has had significant issues against RHBs in a small sample. He’s faced 65 batters with the platoon disadvantage so far and endured both a wOBA and xwOBA reaching .400. That’s enough for a predominantly RH lineup that smashes LHP. If you’re not paying up for pitching tonight, you just may be able to afford the top bat on the board in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (149 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP this year), Teoscar Hernandez (187 wRC+, .360 ISO), Marcus Semien (132 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Bo Bichette (159 wRC+, .189 ISO). There’s not much on the value side for DraftKings players here, but Randal Grichuk (111 wRC+, .244 ISO) costs just $2.3K on FanDuel tonight.

Mike Zunino

Cleveland Guardians
7/30/21, 1:18 PM ET

This Lineup Has More Potency Against LHP Than You Think

Nelson Cruz smashes LHP. This is not surprising information. He has a 163 wRC+ and .229 ISO against them this year. It’s also no surprise that he’s had some tremendous success against Martin Perez (three home runs, .514 xwOBA in 37 PAs because he is a LHP. However, he is not the only batter in the projected lineup for Tampa Bay who has smashed LHP this year. This news may be a bit more interesting because the Rays have just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Cruz is also not the only batter in the projected lineup who has homered three times against Perez. Mike Zunino has also accomplished the feat in fewer PAs (26) with a .353 xwOBA. And Zunino has also had more success against LHP than Cruz this year as well (211 wRC+, .451 ISO). Believe it or not, Perez has only allowed more than three runs in three starts this year, although all estimators are at least one-quarter of a run above his 4.18 ERA and RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Despite the negative run environment this is a strong spot for Tampa Bay Bats (4.8 implied runs). Wander Franco (158 wRC+, .295 ISO), in a smaller sample, and Randy Arozarena (135 wRC+, .225 ISO) have had success against southpaws too, while Manuel Margot (105 wRC+) would have some value atop the lineup at a low price.