DFS Alerts

A Pitcher Averaging More Than Three Times Through the LIneup in 2021

Shane Bieber, Yu Darvish and Walker Buehler are your $10K pitchers on Wednesday night with Freddy Peralta the only other one reaching $9K on either site. Starting at the bottom, Peralta has been missing bats at a beyond elite level this year (40.2 K%, 14.7 SwStr%), though we probably shouldn’t expect him to sustain those numbers. The issues with his price tag today are walks (12.5%), Barrels (11.8%, 36 GB%) and workload. He hasn’t faced more than 22 batters in a start this year because he’s quickly running up his pitch count with all the walks and he has yet to cultivate a quality third pitch that would inspire confidence in sending him through the order a third time. He’s also in the most hitter friendly run environment of the four in Philly.

Darvish has the top matchup among high end pitchers, hosting the Pirates in a negative run environment. They have just an 86 wRC+ and 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP. Five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. All of that said, there are some things to watch for in his profile, including a reduced swinging strike rate (11.9%) and a 29.8 GB% that’s more than 10 points below his career rate. They’re not things to be concerned about in this matchup necessarily though. However, they may push the decision towards Bieber, who has a low of nine strikeouts over six starts. His 2.76 ERA is pretty damn close to, but actually above all his estimators. Here’s the crazy thing for a pitcher in 2021. He’s averaging more than three times through the order per start. There are actually five batters in the Kansas City projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Buehler has his own merits, most glaringly a cool/cold day in Chicago with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. The Cubs have a strong, somewhat contact prone lineup with only four of eight projected above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. Buehler has started to realize that the fastball isn’t working this year. It’s down a mph, has a .378 xwOBA and has been responsible for three of his four HRs surrendered. After giving up a home run on his first pitch of the game, a fastball to Jesse Winker last time out, he threw his cutter a season high 28% of the time the rest of the way. That’s double his rate this season and last season for the pitch. The curveball (18.9%, .250 xwOBA, 40 Whiff%) is really the pitch he needs to get to more often though. Considering all factors and price tags, Bieber is probably your top overall arm on the slate with potential value running fairly close among the three. In terms of ownership, Darvish may be most popular due to perceived matchup strength. If Bieber finds himself projected at lower ownership, he’s probably the best play. Buehler is likely the GPP leverage play though. Be sure to check ownership projections when they update later this afternoon.

A Potentially Over-Looked West Coast Spot

One spot that may go over-looked on this slate is in Oakland, where the A’s have a 4.4 implied run line that’s closer to the middle of the board than the top. Sure, Oakland is a pitcher friendly park, but the majority of the lineup still carries a .200+ ISO vs LHP since 2019 and only the two men at the bottom carry a wRC+ below 100 vs LHP over that same span. Anthony Kay gets the start for Toronto tonight and although he’s shown a reverse split in, he’s only faced 177 batters in his career and RHBs have done just fine with a .322 wOBA (.324 xwOBA) in 115 PAs against him. When considering just this year, Elvis Andrus is the only projected batter below a 110 wRC+ overall. Players can differentiate with Matt Olson, who doesn’t seem to have an issue with same-handed pitching (109 wRC+, .251 ISO since 2019). He’s tops in the lineup with a 173 wRC+ overall this year and would likely have an advantage against RH bullpen arms when Kay exits the game. Lastly, when considering weather environments around the slate, Oakland may not be as prohibited as it generally is in terms of favorability for hitters.

Increased Velocity & Strikeouts For a Low Priced Arm

You’re playing on DraftKings and have rostered Jacob deGrom (or Trevor Bauer or Aaron Nola), so you’re halfway home in terms of pitching tonight. Now, you just have to pair him with a cheap secondary arm. If we consider only those priced below $7.5K, then Alex Cobb just misses the cut and we are looking at Cole Irvin on down. Irvin struck out 20 of his last 72 (11.3 SwStr%), but faces a powerful and predominantly RH Toronto lineup. Eric Lauer is low upside in Philly. Kyle Gibson is viable for $7.2K in Minnesota. He’s pitched great since Opening Day, but has just a 20 K% and hasn’t allowed a HR yet, so the numbers look a bit better than they will eventually be. He faced a dangerous lineup that has had success against him. Mike Minor faces a Cleveland lineup that doesn’t strike out much and hits LHP well. Shane McClanahan blasted 98 mph heat at the A’s for four innings, striking out five of 15 batters (23.7 SwStr%) in his first regular season appearance. When Oakland batters did make contact, half of it was on the ground, but with a 94 mph EV. The issue here is that he throws either his fastball or slider over 80% of the time. He does have a changeup, but it’s not very good at this point. The Rays will likely continue to limit the workload in the early going. He threw 59 pitches first time out. He faces Mike Trout in L.A. tonight.

Now that we’ve found some fault in all the $7K arms (they’re priced that way for a reason), let’s cover some remaining options. Joe Ross ($6.9K) is in a tough spot in a hitter friendly park against the Braves. Jorge Lopez is in a high upside spot in Seattle and is a viable option here. Mitch Keller (in San Diego) has been a mess. Michael Fulmer has improved, but the Tigers are still limiting his workload. He’s also at Fenway. Anthony Kay has to face a powerful RH lineup in Oakland and likely won’t exceed twice through the order. Sam Hentges is making his first major league start in Kansas City and may not go very far. Johan Oviedo costs $6.6K and faces the Mets at home. St Louis is a very pitcher friendly park, which should be enhanced by cold temperatures tonight. He’s struck out 11 of 37 with a 17.9 SwStr% and half of his 22 batted balls have been on the ground (two Barrels). His velocity has been up more than a mile per hour, which has helped his three non-fastball pitches all to at least a 40 Whiff% so far. While it’s far too early to call this a breakout, he may be worth a GPP flier as your secondary arm at such a low price with a likely ownership rate in the single digits.

Hard Contact Prone Pitcher Offers Value to Cheap Bats

One of the more hitter friendly environments on the board tonight (by both park effects and Weather Edge) is in Washington, where the Braves reside near the top of the board at 4.76 implied runs. The reason is fairly easy. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Joe Ross since 2019 with LHBs having the most success (.373 wOBA). Freddie Freeman (169 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Ozzie Albies (104 wRC+, .194 ISO) both exceed a 120 wRC+ overall over the last 30 days. That part’s easy.

On the opposite end, the Nationals sit in the middle of the board with 4.24 implied runs. Nobody is going to be looking at them against a pitcher who has struck out 32.1% of batters with a 14.6 SwStr% this year. However, 19 of his 34 Ks in just two of his five starts. He’s also allowed five HRs on 10 Barrels (15.2%) with a 91 mph EV. While his 2.96 ERA meets his 2.86 SIERA, a 4.66 xERA is much higher. There some opportunities with cheap Washington bats tonight. Only Trea Turner costs more than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. Ynoa has exhibited a massive reverse split in his short career (RHBs .366 wOBA, LHBs .263). However, Statcast has batters from either side of the plate within a .355 xwOBA. Aside from Turner (123 wRC+, .215 ISO), both Josh Bell (126 wRC+, .262 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (112 wRC+, .268 ISO) have had success against RHP since 2019. Both exceed a 95 mph EV on fly balls and line drives overall this year. The only other batter in the projected lineup who can say that is Yadiel Hernandez (96.4 mph), who has a 156 wRC+ since being called up.

A .600+ xwOBA Against Tonight's Starter

Kyle Gibson has been great since Opening Day, surrendering just three earned runs over five starts. The 20 K% (12.5 SwStr%) is not very impressive, but he’s never gotten the strikeouts that his SwStr% suggested he was capable of. Gibson does continue to keep the ball on the ground (53.1%), but has been lucky that none of his five Barrels (5.2%) have left the yard. That could change facing his old team in his old home in Minnesota. If you filter Baseball Savant’s Daily Matchups page for at least 15 PAs and sort by xwOBA, not only do you find two players above .370 against tonight’s opposing pitcher, but both Josh Donaldson (134 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Nelson Cruz (147 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP) exceed a .600 xwOBA against Gibson. Donaldson (.635 xwOBA) has three HRs and a double over 18 PAs, while Cruz (.605 xwOBA) has a one home run and double. RHBs have a .323 wOBA (LHBs .337 wOBA) vs Gibson, whose run of good fortune (at least as far as home run suppression goes) could come to an end tonight. And if it’s neither of them, rookie Alex Kiriloff has been smoking the ball and has a 100.2 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year and now a .344 ISO vs RHP in his short career.

Three Batted Balls Above 110 MPH EV Last Night

The two worst bullpens over the last 30 days remain the Tigers and Reds. When adding ERA, SIERA, FIP and xFIP, then dividing by four, they are the only two teams above five. Unfortunately, the Reds are off the main slate, but the Tigers are in a great spot to target at Fenway. Last season, Michael Fulmer was an easy pitcher to load up against, but seems a bit healthier this year. A more than two mph velocity increase and increasing his slider usage to 33.6% has helped Fulmer increase his strikeout rate to 23.5% (13.7 SwStr%). It’s also caused a stark decrease in both exit velocity (86.1 mph) and Barrels (5.1%) with an increase in ground ball rate (47.5%). This is no reason for concern though, because the Tigers are remaining conservative with him, not allowing Fulmer to exceed 78 pitches yet. We’ll still see plenty of the worst bullpen in baseball in Boston tonight. Rafael Devers is averaging 101 mph on fly balls and line drives and has a 170 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Let’s also note that the Kansas City bullpen is at 4.97 over the last 30 days after being smashed by Cleveland last night. Mike Minor has no real split since 2019 with batters from either side of the plate around a .300 wOBA against him and the Indians are a bit better vs LHP. Jose Ramirez (141 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since 2019) plays well no matter which side of the plate he’s batting from. One other eye catching stat from last night was Harold Ramirez with the two hardest hit balls in baseball last night according to Statcast at 114.5 and 113.5 mph. Franmil Reyes had the fourth hardest hit ball last night (112.3 mph). Max exit velocity is often a good predictor of power.

Second Chance After Recent High Upside Failure

High upside spots (as defined by opposing strikeout rates) not belonging to top end pitching tonight find Alex Cobb (vs Tampa Bay), J.A. Happ (vs Texas), Nick Pivetta (vs Tigers) and Jorge Lopez (at Seattle). Two of these pitchers are carrying fraudulent ERAs which somewhat tank their value around $8K a piece. Happ has completed seven innings in consecutive start and allowed just five runs over four of them this year. His 1.96 ERA is full of misdirection though. He’s struck out just 13 of 87 batters (7.1 SwStr%) with just two of his six Barrels (9.0%) leaving the yard. His SIERA and xFIP exceed five, his DRA is above six. Surface results are simply the product of a .154 BABIP, 86.4 LOB% and 6.1 HR/FB. The projected Texas lineup offers three 30%+ strikeout rates vs LHP right in the middle of the order, three through five. Pivetta’s 2.81 ERA is a farce too. The strikeouts are fine (24%, 10.5 SwStr%), but he’s walked 16.3% of batters faced and has allowed just three Barrels and one HR, despite a 90.9 mph EV and 33.3 GB%. One quarter of his contact has been line drives. The results are a product of a .233 BABIP, 79.1 LOB% and 4.0 HR/FB. His SIERA and DRA both exceed five. The Detroit lineup (projected) includes four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Both should be fine, but may not offer much value at current cost.

Lopez is missing bats at an acceptable rate (21.6 K%, 10.6 SwStr%) and has probably gotten a bit unlucky that all six of his Barrels (9.2%) have left the yard (30 HR/FB). His 5.05 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator above five. There’s a chance he can be a useful secondary DraftKings piece, but the Barrels (9.4% career) have always been a problem and while the lineup for Seattle (projected) includes five above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019, it also includes four of the first five batters with at least a .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Still, Lopez gets a significant park bump and costs just $6.8K on DraftKings.

Cobb entered his last start with a 6.28 ERA, but had actually struck out 21 of 68 batters with a 16.1 SwStr%. He’d allowed just two Barrels (5%) with a 53.8 GB%. His BABIP was .436. His worst estimator was a 3.81 xERA. All other estimators were more than half a run below that. The Angels have him cutting down his sinker to one-third of his offerings, splitting the difference between splitters and curves. Surely an intelligent manager like Joe Maddon could see that the Alex Cobb breakout was just around the corner, but after allowing hits to six of the first 12 Rangers he faced, Maddon had seen enough. Cobb was removed after two innings. He didn’t really have it with just a 5.9 SwStr% and five line drives in that game, but a 4.13 xERA is still his only estimator above three and a half. This is all BABIP. Four hundred and sixty-nine points of it. However, he also seems to have lost the trust of his manager and has averaged just 18 batters per start. He costs $8K or less and just one of nine batters in the Tampa Bay lineup (projected) is below a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019.

High End Pitching Led By a Single Estimator Above One and a Half

Jacob deGrom will be punishing the Cardinals this evening. He’s the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites and may still be the top value on a second consecutive slate that may be affected by weather. The good news is that the rain in St Louis is more likely to cause a late start than delay, which shouldn’t affect deGrom. In his worst start of the season last time out, he still struck out nine of 22 Red Sox with an 18.3 SwStr%, walking one and allowing a single run over six innings on three hits. Is that his floor now? His 2.05 DRA is his only estimator above one and a half! You don’t think this is sustainable and that it’s merely part of some extraordinary stretch, but the numbers beneath the numbers are just simply ridiculous. The only thing he doesn’t do well is hold runners because he never gets any practice. St Louis is also one of the more pitcher friendly environments in baseball, especially under cooler conditions tonight. If the game were somehow postponed because the Cardinals did not want to face deGrom, he may no longer be the top value.

Aaron Nola exceeds $10K on DraftKings in a fine matchup with the Brewers. Just two batters in the projected lineup are below a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. Strikeouts are down for Nola this year (25.8%, 12 SwStr%), but both numbers are more in line with his career rates than last season (33.2%, 13.4 SwStr%), so perhaps that was the aberration in a truncated season. He continues to manage contact well (87.7 mph EV, 4.8% Barrels/BBE) and has walked just five. Not a single estimator is even a half run removed from his 3.11 ERA. He’s certainly a viable alternative if ownership projects to land too heavily in deGrom, but there are also potential weather issues in this game with it currently coded Orange in the forecast. The run environment is likely to be much more positive than St Louis too.

The last piece to this high end pitching puzzle tonight is Trevor Bauer, only available on DraftKings, in Game Two of the double header at Wrigley. Generally, a seven inning cap is not much of a big deal for pitchers these days, but Bauer may be one of the few where it matters, especially at $10.7K. He’s capped, but still certainly viable with the conditions (cold with wind blowing in) expected to be very pitcher friendly tonight. This should limit any issues Bauer has had with hard contact this year (89.9 mph EV, 8.0% Barrels/BBE, 35.6 GB%) behind his 29.1 K-BB%. Four of eight Cubs tentatively projected for Game Two exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019.

The Fountain of Youth Has Been Found In St Louis

With 40% of the slate currently carrying at least a hint or Orange in the weather forecast and three teams going with bullpen games, we’re probably going to have to take larger risks than we’re normally comfortable with in terms of pitching choices tonight, particularly on DraftKings, where you’re required to make two of those choices. It’s certainly not a favorable or high upside spot to face a projected lineup with seven batters above a 105 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs RHP since 2019, but should the weather concerns improve, there are several factors in Adam Wainwright’s favor tonight.

Let’s start with the fact that of the four weather concerns tonight, St Louis appears to be the most optimistic spot. It’s also one of the more negative run environments in the league, particularly early in the season before the weather heats up. And, although, Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis are currently projected to play, neither started last night’s game in Philadelphia due to hand injuries. Nimmo did appear as a defensive replacement and is probably more likely to play than Davis might be. Most importantly though, is Wainwright’s own performance. He seems to have the fountain of youth at age 40. His average velocity exceeds 90 mph for the first time since 2017. His 26.4 K% and 11.5 SwStr% are both career highs. A 45.7 GB% is a bit below his career average, but higher than last year. An 89.2 mph EV (7.4% Barrels/BBE) is right around league average and his 5.0 BB% is his lowest since 2015. It’s not unreasonable to consider him potentially one of the top values on the board, particularly as a Glasnow alternative on FanDuel where he costs just $7.2K. Only Aaron Civale, Walker Buehler and Glasnow are averaging more than six innings per start this year, but Adam Wainwright has the next highest workload at just below that.

LHBs Have a .410 xwOBA Against This Pitcher

The Rays are the rare offense that often justifies both rostering the opposing pitcher due to high strikeout rates in their lineup along with several Tampa Bay bats in additional lineups. Strikeouts don’t preclude batters from being productive, especially in this day and age and nowhere is that more apparent than among the Tampa Bay Rays. Six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and only two are below that mark this year overall. Additionally, two LHBs exceed a 135 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs RHP since 2019 as well (Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe). Why is the left-handed aspect important? Because batters from that side have a .375 wOBA and .410 xwOBA against Shohei Ohtani since last year. Ohtani is certainly a pitcher you want some exposure to on this slate if it turns out getting drilled in the elbow on Sunday is not expected to limit him, but he’s still a pitcher who carries a 21 BB% next to his 37.1 K%. That can drive up a pitch count quickly and Ohtani has been limited to 80 and 75 pitches in his last two starts. Should Ohtani either be ineffective, scratched or run up his pitch count quickly, the bullpen behind him has been marginal at best with a 4.21 ERA and 4.06 xFIP. The current implied run line for the Rays is just 3.75, one of the lowest numbers on the board, which should ease any ownership concerns as well.

A Former Likely Pitching Duel Now a Potential Smash Spot

If this pitching matchup had taken place last season, Walker Buehler vs Kyle Hendricks would inspire thoughts of a classic pitching duel. However, it’s not 2020 anymore and both pitchers are showing some flaws in the early going of the new season. Buehler has struck out 19 of his last 52 batters and has a 15.5 SwStr% over his last three starts, but still has a fastball problem. The fastball velocity is down and he’s been lucky that the pitch hasn’t performed much worse than it’s .298 wOBA with much worse .378 xwOBA. After giving up a home run on his first pitch of the game, a fastball to Jesse Winker last time out, he threw his cutter a season high 28% of the time the rest of the way. That’s double his rate this season and last season for the pitch. The cutter has just a 28.2 Whiff% and .334 xwOBA, not great, but better than the fastball (three of four HRs he’s allowed). The curveball (18.9%, .250 xwOBA, 40 Whiff%) is really the pitch he needs to get to and it looks like more cutters and fewer four-seamers may allow him to better accomplish that feat this year. Any decrease in fastball usage might keep him a more viable DFS arm and help him continue to rack up strikeouts while reducing damage.

Hendricks has much more flagrant issues. He’s faced Atlanta twice over his last three starts, allowing seven HRs. Velocity shouldn’t matter much to Hendricks, but there’s probably a point where it does and he’s averaging less than 87 mph this year and…well, it’s not even the sinker that’s the problem. He’s allowed at least two HRs on all four of his pitches, but with the .330 xwOBA, the sinker has actually been his best offering. Each of his three other pitches exceed a .500 wOBA and .440 xwOBA. The 19.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 15.9% Barrels/BBE, 31.6 GB% and 89.7 mph EV are all either career worsts or his worst mark since a rookie 2014 that included fewer than 100 innings. Considering he’s only looked formidable against the Pirates and Brewers this year, the Dodgers are not what anyone who cares for Hendricks want to see on his schedule next. A potential way to differentiate here (if the weather holds up) is utilizing RH Dodger bats against Hendricks, who even has a small reverse split since 2019 (.306 wOBA to .294 wOBA). Justin Turner (139 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is one of just three players on the board with at least 15 PAs and an xwOBA above .400 against tonight’s opposing pitcher. Turner has homered twice against Hendricks in 22 PAs. There’s also the potential for some wind blowing out to left field in a double digit mph range according to Weather Edge, though the game is currently coded Orange in the forecast.

Awful Pen Behind Debuting Starter

The lack of teams from Detroit and Cincinnati on the slate tonight means we don’t get to attack the two worst bullpens in the league over the last 30 days. If we add up ERA, SIERA, FIP and xFIP and then divide by four, the Tigers and Reds are the only teams in the majors whose relief corps exceeds five. Four more teams range between 4.50 and 5.00 with two of them on the slate tonight. We rarely need extra incentive to attack at Coors, though German Marquez and a discouraging weather report may dissuade us some. Kansas City provides a more interesting scenario.

The Royals are debuting Daniel Lynch, who is a 24 year-old, well regarded left-handed pitching prospect with a 50 Future Value grade from Fangraphs. The problem is, we have no data on him above A ball in 2019. He throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup that all appear to have average or better upside and he saw a velocity uptick after returning from an arm injury a couple of years ago. He’s projected as a capable back end starter in some reports that may now be out-dated. There are actually a few points in favor of rostering Lynch tonight. He seems to have some upside and while the Indians don’t strike out a lot, the projected lineup is missing one of their most dangerous RHBs (Franmil Reyes) and may contain a few LHBs. The current forecast is clear, but cool with wind blowing in from left in a park that suppresses power anyway. There’s also some advantage in the opposing team having limited information in their first look at a pitcher too. The most important factor though, is that he costs the stone cold minimum of just $4K on DraftKings. Lynch doesn’t have to do much and he doesn’t have to do it for long to create value. Alternatively, you can even roster some opposing batters with the expectation a poor bullpen is going to be active fairly early and not get hurt too bad in your Lynch lineups if he gives up a few runs himself.

One HIgh Upside Arm in a High Upside Spot

High strikeout upside spots on tonight’s slate belong to Aaron Sanchez (at Coors), Adrian Houser (at Phillies), Dean Kremer (at Mariners) and Shohei Ohtani (vs Rays) and Vince Velasquez (vs Brewers). There are significant issues in all of these spots. We can start in Philadelphia, where the Phillies don’t have a lot of high strikeout batters, but only one in the projected lineup below a 22 K% vs RHP since 2019. The first problem is Adrian Houser’s lack of punch (6.5 SwStr%) and on the opposite side, Vince Velasquez’s lack of control and inability to work deep into games. It’s generally two trips through and then onto the bullpen for him. That might even be a reasonable risk to take in this spot for a guy who does have a 30 K% this year at a low cost, except that there are significant weather concerns in this game as well. The game currently has the dreaded Orange tag. At least with Red, we know we can safely move on.

Moving along to Coors, Sanchez has a 20 K% that’s actually above average for him and the 60.3 GB% will certainly help in that park. A three plus mph drop in velocity hasn’t seemed to phase him and we certainly no longer fear rostering opposing pitchers at Coors. One concern is that the Giants have only allowed him around 80 pitches per start and another universal concern in this game is weather once again, though it’s a bit better than Philly with a hint of Yellow mixed in with the Orange.

The last two pitchers are in west coast games with no weather concerns, especially with a dome in Seattle. Kremer has struck out a quarter of the 72 batters he’s faced, albeit with just a 9.4 SwStr%, but he’s also cut down on his walk rate to league average (8.3%) through four starts. All four of his Barrels have left the yard. That seems a bit unlucky and maybe the park upgrade helps, but he also has a 93.7 mph EV. The 8.40 ERA with an unsightly .455 BABIP will drop, but the question is, do they trend all the way down to his 3.83 SIERA or more towards his 5.98 xERA, which includes contact quality. The Mariners should have enough strikeouts in this lineup that Kremer would make for a reasonable SP2 risk on DraftKings as a Glasnow partner if the outlook is poor in other spots. Meanwhile, if we get good news on Ohtani’s elbow, he’s certainly a pitcher we want against a projected lineup that includes four batters above a 29 K% vs RHP since 2019. He’s had some control and workload issues, while a 12.6 SwStr% does not entirely support a 37.1 K%, but this is still a high upside pitcher in a high upside spot for less than $8K on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the price tag is much higher with the possible lack of a Quality Start more of an issue.

One Clear Reliable Spot on Monday Night's Slate

Here are some of the factors daily fantasy players are facing in terms of their pitching selections on Monday night’s slate. Three teams are throwing bullpen games (Mets, Padres, Mariners). The Royals are debuting a rookie we have very little information on since there hasn’t been a minor league season since 2019, when he was still pitching in A ball. Shohei Ohtani was drilled in the right elbow on Sunday. He is still scheduled to pitch at this point in time, but even that’s unclear.

What else is lacking clarity tonight is the weather is several spots and with just one game starting at 7 pm ET tonight, that confusion could push beyond initial lock. Philadelphia, St Louis, Chicago and Colorado all have at least some element of Orange in the early day forecast.

That leaves very few games where we have both pitching and weather clarity. One of them is in Minnesota, where the struggling Kenta Maeda (seven HRs last two starts) takes on the Rangers, fronted by Dane Dunning, who has not been allowed to exceed 75 pitches in any of his five starts. We’ve also got Steven Matz in Oakland facing a lineup with plenty of RH power with Frankie Montas on the other side, facing a lineup with plenty of power. Despite the lack of upside in the opposing lineup (at least from a strikeout perspective), there’s only one spot on the board for players to confidently land tonight and that likely drives Tyler Glasnow’s ownership through the roof. He’s piling up the whiffs (39.2 K%, 16.6 SwStr%) and the new slider he’s throwing 29.6% of the time gives opposing hitters a new look that may have helped with HR issues (he’s allowed just two this year). It’s not the greatest pitch (.318 xwOBA, 38 Whiff%), but it’s good enough and sets up a four-seamer with a 32.9 Whiff% and .259 xwOBA. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate and the only one who exceeds $10K on both sites, but would probably project as the top overall arm on the slate even if there were no weather or injury concerns. Any potential pivots are going to need further clarity later in the day.

Great Spot for RHBs Against a RHP (.460 xwOBA)

Kohei Arihara has 11 of his 13 strikeouts in just two of his three starts and a 6.9 SwStr% overall. He’s been extremely lucky that just two of nine Barrels (12.9%) have left the yard and has a 93.9 mph EV on 70 batted balls. His 4.03 ERA is more than half a run below all of his non-FIP estimators. The Red Sox are in a strong spot in Texas and are fourth on the board with a 4.7 implied run line. All three teams above them are above five implied runs. It’s also a small sample, but Arihara has particularly had issues with RHBs (.375 wOBA, .460 xwOBA). While LHBs have just a .300 wOBA against him, Statcast drives them up to a .371 xwOBA as well. While it’s a disappointment that J.D. Martinez is expected to sit tonight, it does open up a potentially cheaper stacking situation for the Boston lineup. This is a great spot for Xander Bogaerts (137 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2019), but Enrique Hernandez (84 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Christian Vazquez (100 wRC+, .156 ISO) are both below $3K on FanDuel.