DFS Alerts

Statcast Suggests Run Environment Declines When This Roof is Open

This will be a bullpen game for the Marlins. Jordan Holloway has never started a major league game, but last pitched five days ago, throwing three innings and 61 pitches. Theoretically, he could be stretched enough to cover nearly five innings here with some efficiency, though the Marlins have not named a starting pitcher yet. He’s struck out 10 of 37 batters faced with a 10.5 SwStr% and has yet to allow a Barrel on 24 BBE. Fangraphs recently ranked him their 35th best prospect, profiling more as a reliever. Either way, the Diamondbacks are going to see a lot of the Miami bullpen, which has a 2.34 ERA and 2.97 FIP over the last 30 days, both top three marks in the majors. The Diamondbacks would prefer to see LHP because they have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP. Among projected starters, David Peralta tops the lineup with a 115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and Eduardo Escobar has the top ISO at .208. Interesting to note that the Diamonbacks’ website states that the roof will be open for this game, but Statcast’s new Park Factors suggests that wOBA and HRs decrease substantially under open air conditions over the last three years. Perhaps a humidor effect?

A 13.8 K-BB% represents the second consecutive season of decline for Luke Weaver. Six of 10 Barrels (11.2%) have left the yard with a career high 92.2 mph EV and just 35.6% of his contact on the ground. Some name recognition, along with a favorable matchup, might over-inflate his ownership rates. The numbers just mentioned might provide some incentive to go underweight. The Marlins do have just an 86 wRC+, 27.2 K% and 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP. Weaver doesn’t have much of a split with batters from either side of the plate between a .322 and .336 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2019. Four batters in the projected lineup are above a 100 wRC+, but only three above a .170 ISO since 2019. If there were a spot where Weaver were going to exceed his current season marks, this is in, but he costs an unsightly $9K on DraftKings. For $1.5K less on FanDuel, he does have the potential to be one of the better values on the board.

This Offense Feasts on Visiting Southpaws

We don’t have a confirmed starter for the Angels and therefore no sportsbook lines, but Jose Suarez is expected to make his first start and appearance of the season. This would be good news for the Astros, as they have punished LHP (115 wRC+), demolished visiting pitchers (125 wRC+ at home) and been on fire (146 wRC+ last seven days). Suarez made just two starts and pitched just 2.1 innings for the Angels last year. He threw 81 innings in his rookie year in 2019. He has just a 9.0 K-BB%, 36.3 GB% and 7.6% Barrels/BBE. In 110 AAA innings (2018-19), he barely generated a double digit K-BB%. Most simply, there’s no strikeout upside towards rostering Suarez here. Five of nine projected Astros are below a 15 K% vs LHP since 2019. Expected to face seven from the RH side is another issue for Suarez, as RHBs have a .443 wOBA (.393 xwOBA) against him in the majors. No surprise that Alex Bregman (196 wRC+, .337 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .ISO) are your top bats. Altuve actually leads the projected lineup with a 96.1 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year and could even have some stolen base value if Suzuki is behind the plate. Should the early departure of Suarez be a concern, a heavily worked Angels’ bullpen has a 5.84 ERA and 4.60 FIP over the last 30 days with some of their top arms potentially unavailable tonight.

Luis Garcia owns today’s second highest strikeout rate (28%, 14.3 SwStr%). If you’re looking for a reason to go underweight on him though, he’s pitched five innings against the Angels over two separate appearances, striking out only one of 25 batters with three walks and two HRs. He’s managed contact well with just an 86.9 mph EV, but with just a 35 GB%, he’s allowed 11.7% Barrels/BBE (four HRs). The 3.28 ERA is a product of a .214 BABIP and 84.8 LOB%. His SIERA (3.75) and xERA (3.84) are the most optimistic estimators with the remainders around four and a half. The Angels also have a 115 wRC+ vs RHP and don’t strike out a ton, though five in the projected lineup have at least a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. Unlike the Astros, this offense is a three man band. Jared Walsh (149 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since 2019), Mike Trout (195 wRC+, .388 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (125 wRC+, .250 ISO) are your desired bats with David Fletcher (97 wRC+) and Justin Upton (91 wRC+, .182 ISO) reasonable stacking options.

These Two Teams Are Closer Than You Think

Martin Perez and Jorge Lopez have a similar strikeout rates (21.4% to 21.7%), but that’s where the similarities end. Perez (8.4 BB%, 39.5 GB% 87.2 mph EV) might be much worse than the numbers suggest, despite just 4.6% Barrels/BBE. Consider that he’s faced the Tigers, Rangers and Mariners over his last three starts and the Rays in his first start of the season. These are the most strikeout prone lineups in the American League. Yet he still has a 4.40 ERA with just one HR allowed. Estimators are mostly in line with his results, but again, he’s had a dream schedule except for matchups with the Twins and White Sox. The Orioles would seem to continue that run of futile offenses, but they actually have a team 110 wRC+ vs LHP with a 14.1 HR/FB this year. Four batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP since 2019. Two of them, Trey Mancini (136 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Austin Hays (114 wRC+, .222 ISO) exceed a 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall too. The Orioles are expected to stack the lineup with RHBs against Perez because batters from that side have a .341 wOBA against him since 2019. At 4.19 implied runs, Baltimore is right in the middle of the board tonight. Hays could be a great DK value at just $3.8K.

The story of Lopez’s career, and it hasn’t changed this year, is that he misses enough bats to have some value (10.8 SwStr% this year) if he could just find a way to keep the ball in the park. Last year, seven of his 12 Barrels (9.2%) left the yard (17.5 HR/FB). This year, already, seven of seven Barrels (9.1%) have left the yard (28 HR/FB), which does seem a bit unfortunate, especially considering the nearly four mph reduction in exit velocity (92.8 to 89). If we buy into the actual HR rate, his FIP is 6.14. If we include the contact profile, which is a bit kinder, he has 4.93 xERA. If we normalize the HR rate, he has a 4.41 SIERA and 4.37 xFIP, which may be asking for a little too much. The Orioles appear to be doing the right thing by getting him out of their after two trips through the order on average. Even at a low cost ($6.5K on either site), he may be a tough roster against the Red Sox (115 wRC+, 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP) in this environment. Lopez will bring a .393 wOBA (.391 xwOBA) against LHBs since 2019 against a lineup that’s projected to be well balanced tonight. Rafael Devers (149 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since 2019, 177 wRC+ last 30 days overall) is your top bat in the second best offense tonight (top implied run line if Coors is rained out). Marwin Gonzalez (85 wRC+, .134 ISO) may be the top value if in the leadoff spot at a low price.

Embrace the Volatility on a Short Slate

Mitch Keller achieved his best results (5.2 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 5 K – 21 BF against the Padres) in a game that saw his velocity drop a mile per hour last time out. It makes you wonder if it was intended because he threw a season high 69.9% fastballs with a season low 4.8% sliders. That doesn’t sound like the kind of process that would improve your results in 2021 and, in fact, he generated just a 2.4 SwStr% in that start. Control issues seem to come and go, as he’s failed to strike out more than he’s walked in half of his starts, but walked a total of three combined in his remaining three. With just 33.8% of his contact on the ground and a 92.8 mph EV, batters have somehow generated just five Barrels (6.8%) against him. While his 6.29 ERA is above all estimators, a 4.58 FIP that seem a bit surreal is the best of them.

The Reds have a 109 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 62 wRC+ and 9.5 HR/FB on the road. This Votto-less projected lineup still has six batters above a 100 wRC+ with a .180 ISO or higher vs RHP since 2019, though only two (Nick Castellanos & Jesse Winker) are above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. The lineup is projected to be balanced and batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA against Keller since 2019, but Statcast drives LHBs down to a .331 wOBA and RHBs to a .269 xwOBA. The Reds have a 4.14 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board today and with the park suppressing RH power, we want to focus on LHBs like Winker (147 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2019). Mike Moustakas (112 wRC+, .264 ISO) is cheaper, but has just a 39 wRC+ over the last month. Keller is not a cash game play and carries the second lowest projection of the day among pitchers who have a start this year. However, for GPP players, we can go over-weight based on inconsistency because he also currently holds the third highest ceiling according to PlateIQ projections. Embrace the volatility.

The Top Strikeout Rate on the Board in a Great Spot

Tyler Mahle has allowed five HRs, three of them in his last start against the Cubs, two in his first, both at home. Understandable. On the road, in a much more power friendly park in Pittsburgh, we should be able to experience the upside from Mahle (32.8%) without a lot of the risk. Our caveat is that the 12.2 SwStr% suggests he may not be able to sustain that strikeout rate above 30%. His 9.9% Barrels/BBE still projects a 2.93 xERA, his best estimator and third best on the board today. Only his FIP is more than one-third of a run above his 3.23 ERA though.

The Pirates have just an 88 wRC+ (8.6 HR/FB) vs RHP with a 5.3 HR/FB at home and are now without Colin Moran as well as Ke’Bryan Hayes. Among batters projected to be in the lineup tonight, only three are above an 89 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and Bryan Reynolds tops the group with a .183 ISO vs RHP over that span. Over the last 30 days overall, half the lineup is below a 70 wRC+. Mahle is one of two pitchers exceeding $9K on DraftKings, but comes in just below that on FanDuel. No pitcher is averaging six innings per start and just two above five, so we may have to temper expectations on Quality Start points tonight, but despite averaging just 21 batters per game, Mahle could be efficient enough to get there tonight. From the opposite end, the Pirates have the lowest implied run line of the four games currently posted (3.36), but their bats are cheap, should you somehow need that tonight. Only Bryan Reynolds (120 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019) reaches either $4K on DK or $3K on FD tonight. A Cincinnati bullpen with a 5.91 ERA and 5.02 xFIP over the last 30 days and a defense at -8 runs prevented this year (Statcast) might be some motivation towards Pittsburgh bats as well.

High Upside Spot for Same Handed Batters

When the Mariners face the Rangers, daily fantasy players are merely hoping for some pitching competence in two high upside spots. Both teams are likely to be sporting several 30K%+ bats in their lineups. Interestingly though, the Seattle lineup is not entirely depleted of competent bats against RHP either and most of those bats bat from the right side. What makes this even more intriguing though, is that batters from either side of the plate are within one point of a .337 wOBA against Mike Foltynewicz since 2019 and Statcast even raises same-handed bats to a .343 xwOBA. The Mariners have a reasonable 4.12 implied run line smack in the middle of the board today. Suddenly, this is turning into a spot where you might want to attack this pitcher. If so, Mitch Haniger is the key bat here. He is the only RHB in the lineup who exceeds a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019, along with a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Ty France only lacks in the power department (.139 ISO), while Kyle Lewis (124 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP) costs around $500 less, likely due to his 77 wRC+ this season. Chris Flexen also has a similar issue on the other side of this matchup, but wOBA and Statcast have a bit of a disagreement there (LHBs .339 wOBA, .300 xwOBA – RHBs .320 wOBA, .362 xwOBA). Keeping it simple, David Dahl and Jonah Heim are the only projected batters below a 105 wRC+ for the Rangers over the last 30 days. Texas is a bit higher on the board with a 4.38 implied run line.

Deceivingly HIgh ERA

Charlie Morton has a 5.08 ERA and the Phillies don’t immediately jump out as a high upside matchup, while Atlanta generally plays as a positive run scoring environment, but now that we’ve gotten all that out of the way, let’s consider why he may still be one of the top values on the slate. Morton’s velocity is back up to 95 mph this year and his strikeout rate has increased to 27.5% along with it. His ground ball rate is also back up to 51.7%. His 87.6 mph EV is right on his career rate and one of the lower marks on the board today, along with 5.7% Barrels/BBE. All of his estimators are about a run and a half below his 5.08 ERA, due to a 65.1 LOB%. The Phillies have just an 80 wRC+ and 27.1 K% vs RHP this year. Even if Bryce Harper returns tonight, he’s the only batter in the projected lineup above a 108 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and only three are above a .180 ISO. Only two batters of the projected eight are below a 22 K% vs RHP over that span. Morton has already faced the Phillies twice this year (first two starts) and struck out 12 of 45 batters. Lastly, he costs less than $8K on either site. Morton has only completed six innings in half of his six starts, but has recorded sixth inning outs in five straight.

Garlick is Back on the Menu in Detroit

Bullpens generally have more turnover than any other part of a baseball team, so it might be a good idea to track their performances using rolling 30 day statistics. If you add up ERA, SIERA, FIP and xFIP, dividing by four, three major league bullpens exceed five over the last month. The Reds (5.58) have been the worst of them all, overtaking the Tigers (5.32) this week. Wade Miley doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but does generate a lot of weak ground balls. Regardless, Jordan Luplow has smashed LHP (174 wRC+, .348 ISO since 2019) and should be cheaply near the top of the lineup tonight.

The spot in Detroit is certainly more interesting tonight though and that’s because Tarik Skubal has a 3.8 K-BB% and 21.4 GB%. Eight of 14 Barrels (19.7%) have left the yard. His pitch mix has changed a bit this year. It’s not working. He has a 9.18 xERA and that’s not even his worst estimator. Not one is below six. In his short career, RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA. We could be disappointed by the likely absence of Byron Buxton in this spot or simply load up on Nelson Cruz (214 wRC+, .411 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and Mitch Garver (178 wRC+, .370 ISO). If you’re concerning about the price tags, then Garlick (Kyle) is on the value menu tonight. He has a 110 wRC+ and .246 ISO vs LHP and costs just $2.6K or less on either site.

The other terrible bullpen over the last month resides in Kansas City (5.13). The White Sox are dealing with some long term injuries, which have lightened their lineup, but Brad Keller has been shelled this year (13.6 K%, 44.8 GB%, 11.5% Barrels/BBE). Statcast believes Keller has been a bit fortunate in the past, driving his xwOBA up above .320 against batters from either side of the plate. Nick Madrigal (120 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019) doesn’t have any power, but he’s been shifted to the top of the lineup recently and is a cheap bat that should be in the middle of any run scoring in this matchup. Yermin Mercedes (180 wRC+) still costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Additionally, the Diamondbacks (4.94), Rockies (4.90) and Angels (4.85) have all struggled in relief recently.

A 104.4 MPH EV on Fly Balls and Line Drives This Year

On the one hand, Patrick Corbin has allowed just six runs over his last 17 innings, but on the other, he’s done so with just 12 strikeouts to seven walks and three HRs. It’s hard to spin any positives on his performance this year. The contact profile (12% Barrels/BBE) suggests he deserves an ERA above seven. A 5.58 SIERA is his best estimator. The Yankees have murdered LHP this year (125 wRC+, 20.8 K%, 19.7 HR/FB) and have a 140 wRC+ over the last seven days. You certainly didn’t expect this offense to remain dormant all season. In 92 PAs against Corbin, the current roster has a .478 xwOBA with just a 15.2 K%. DJ LeMahieu has seven XBHs in 55 PAs with a .491 xwOBA. The blistering bat of Giancarlo Stanton (183 wRC+ last 30 days) has a .419 xwOBA in 20 PAs against Corbin that includes two HRs and two doubles. He has a 104.4 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year. RHBs have a .328 wOBA (.337 xwOBA) against Corbin since 2019. The projected Yankee lineup includes four RHBs above a 120 wRC+ and six above a .200 ISO vs LHP over that same span. A rarity that we don’t find a team above five implied runs on a 14 game slate, but that’s partially due to cooler early season weather and perhaps a lower run scoring environment overall, but no surprise to see the Yankees near the top of the board. They are one of three teams right around 4.8 implied runs tonight and not very cheap (though LeMahieu is just $3.2K on FD), but likely worth your investment tonight.

Velocity and Strikeout Increase in a High Upside Spot

High upside spots not belonging to high cost pitchers feature Chris Flexen (at Rangers), Mike Foltynewicz (vs Mariners), Matt Shoemaker (vs Tigers), Tarik Skubal (at Twins) and Sean Manaea (vs Rays). Addressing the elephant in the room immediately, the projected Minnesota lineup includes five batters exceeding a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019 and three above 34%. However it also includes five batters above a .200 ISO and Skubal is an extreme fly ball pitcher you probably want no part of tonight, while the same can be said of his opponent. Shoemaker has failed to strike out a single batter in two of his last three starts.

The other direct matchup we have here is Chris Flexen facing Mike Foltynewicz. Flexen failed to strike out any of the 17 Angels he faced last time out, after striking out seven of 25 Red Sox. He’s at 18.4% on the year with an 8.2 SwStr%. He’s walked just six, but been lucky that only two of his seven Barrels (8.1%) have left the yard. Non-FIP estimators sit a bit above four with a 6.5 HR/FB seeming unsustainable, though the .333 BABIP is a bit high too. He’s still somewhat reasonable facing a projected lineup with four batters exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP since 2019. Meanwhile, a 16.5 K-BB% is the second highest of Mike Foltynewicz’s career, but a 91.3 mph EV is more than two mph above his previous high. He’s already allowed 12 Barrels (12.1%), nine of which have left the yard. A 4.32 ERA is a bit above some estimators (SIERA, xFIP), but well below others (FIP, DRA), due to an 89.2 LOB% and 21.4 HR/FB. Again here, the upside may be worth the risk as a secondary arm on DraftKings for less than $7K, when facing a projected Seattle lineup that includes four batters above a 30K% vs RHP since 2019.

Manaea isn’t exactly cheap, exceeding $9K on DraftKIngs, but costs just $8K on FanDuel. He has ridden a velocity increase to a league average 23.7 K% and 12 SwStr%, which represents an improvement for him. Without much of a change in pitch usage, his ground ball rate has dropped below 40% for the first time, but that’s not much of a concern in Oakland. He’s allowed four long balls this year on seven Barrels (7.1%). Every estimator except a 4.87 DRA is below four. As they proved last night, the Rays could put double digit strikeouts on the board offensively, but still generate runs. Six of nine projected starters for the Rays tonight exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019. Manaea is a reasonable alternative on DraftKings, but also potentially a top value on FanDuel at his current cost.

Which Pitchers Merit Their High Price Tags Tonight?

Although there are four $10K pitchers on FanDuel and just two on DraftKIngs, Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher who reaches that mark on both sites. Finally the pitcher the White Sox always thought and hoped he would blossom into as a prospect, a velocity increase has led to a 37.9 K% (17.3 SwStr%). Some control issues still persist. He walked five in one start and three in another, but as long as they don’t get too far out of hand, it won’t really hurt him with such a high rate of punch-outs. With a near average exit velocity and ground ball rate just below 40%, he’s allowed just three Barrels (6.4%) and one HR. Even though his 0.72 ERA is well below estimators (.130 BABIP, 90.9 LOB%, 5.0 HR/FB), his 2.32 xERA is best on the board. All of that said, as the most expensive pitcher on the board on FD (2nd on DK), he may be a tad over-priced or more likely accurately priced in a marginal spot against the Royals, who have just a 17.9 K% vs LHP this year.

The most expensive pitcher on DraftKings is Blake Snell at $10.2K. From a strikeout perspective (31.6%) this looks fine, but he hasn’t exceeded eight in a game this year because with his velocity falling off later in games, the Padres have taken the same conservative approach to Blake Snell’s outings as the Rays did. He’s reached 95 pitches just once. The 12.8 BB% is also a bit concerning and doesn’t help his pitch count. A 3.51 ERA is in line with more traditional estimators, though his DRA (2.88) and xERA (4.73) are in substantial disagreement, but he’s also facing the Giants, who have a 109 wRC+, 7.2 K-BB% and 22 HR/FB vs LHP. You can’t pay that price for Snell today and probably not even $9K on FanDuel, considering the expected workload.

Additional $10K pitchers on FanDuel include Jack Flaherty ($9.4K DK), Julio Urias ($9.7K DK) and Trevor Rogers ($8.8K DK). Flaherty struck out a season high nine Pirates last time out to push his season rate up to 25.9% on the season, which isn’t too far above league average this year. The ground ball rate is down to 36%, but may not hurt him much in that park, even though the 91.2 mph EV is third worst on the board today. That pushes his xERA up to 4.22, well above a 3.41 ERA and all his other estimators. The attraction here is the Rockies with four batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Urias has a 24.7 K-BB% through six starts to go along with a ground ball rate increase to 44% and his normally excellent contact management (86.8 mph EV). A 2.87 ERA is within a quarter of a run of all his estimators. The Dodgers are also letting him pitch deeper into games this year too, facing at least 22 batters in every start. There is just one quality RH bat in a projected Angels’ lineup with four batters above a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019. Rogers is coming off his worst outing (three runs in five innings in Washington). He does have a 10% walk rate, but a 33.8 K% (16.5 SwStr%). Despite a 36.2 GB%, he’s allowed just four Barrels (5.6%) and two HRs. Estimators range from a 2.59 FIP to a 3.64 DRA. The 84.8 LOB% and 7.1 HR/FB seem unsustainable, but he’s facing the Brewers tonight. Four of eight batters in this projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019 as well.

Urias and Rondon are the guys averaging at least six innings per start if that’s what you’re looking for on FanDuel, but Rogers might have the highest upside on the board. Without over-whelming ownership concerns (projections update later this afternoon), Urias and Rogers would seem the optimal choices here, especially the latter on DraftKings for less than $9K.

The Top Park in the Majors For LH Power

You’re probably rostering a high end starting pitcher tonight, which means you’re in the market for some value in your lineup. The Rays are implied for just over four runs tonight, which finds them somewhere around the middle of the board. They’re also facing Shohei Ohtani, which makes you think they’re not going to be finding their way into a lot of lineups tonight. That might be a mistake for a few reasons. The first of which is the park itself. Statcast’s new Park Factors tell us that this is not only a smash spot for LH power, but the smash spot in the majors with a 141 HR Factor for batters from that side of the plate over the last three years. This is information many players probably aren’t aware of yet. There’s also the Tampa Bay offense itself. They do strike out a ton, but there are still several quality batters in this lineup. Austin Meadows (145 wRC+ .271 ISO vs RHP since 2019) costs less than $4K on either site tonight and may be one of the top values on the slate. Brandon Lowe (136 wRC+, .248 ISO) costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Ohtani struggled early last time out before righting the ship in Texas, but he’s also walked 13 of the 62 batters he’s faced this year, which can run up his often limited pitch count quite quickly. The bullpen for the Angels has struggled with a 4.75 ERA over the last month too, though all estimators are more than half a run below that. The Tampa Bay lineup may have some unsuspected value tonight, especially from the left side.

Perceived Improvements May Not Be Real

Erick Fedde has a 4.42 ERA that’s above all of his estimators, but in this case, it may be the estimators that are off. The 25.8 K% is supported by just a 7.3 SwStr% and he’s been lucky that just two of six Barrels (10%) have left the yard. Oddsmakers have the Braves at 4.5 implied runs tonight, good enough for just the fourth highest spot on the slate. They may be under-estimating the Atlanta offense against Fedde here. While the Braves generally have only two LHBs in their lineup (.335 wOBA, .375 xwOBA vs Fedde since 2019), RHBs hit him just fine too (.321 wOBA, .347 xwOBA). Ronald Acuna has a 217 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 98.4 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year. Add in his 141 wRC+ and .272 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and it might not be a stretch to call Acuna the top overall bat on the slate tonight. You’re paying for your Braves tonight, but Freddie Freeman (168 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is reasonably $3.7K on FanDuel with Austin Riley (142 wRC+ last 30 days) priced just $4.1K on DraftKings moving up to the middle of the order recently.

A Couple of Surprising Underperforming Bullpens

It’s fairly obvious at this point that the Detroit bullpen is the one to attack on any given slate, especially behind a young pitching staff that doesn’t generally pitch deep into games. A trip to Fenway behind Casey Mize, who LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against since last year, only enhances the value of Boston bats, but this is going to be no secret tonight. The Red Sox have the highest implied run line on the board (5.18).

It may be skipping the attention of players how bad the Kansas City bullpen has been though. They have a team 5.77 ERA and 4.96 FIP over the last 30 days out of their relievers. Brady Singer has been pretty good, but his 9.2 SwStr% does not support his 26.3 K% and his .297 career wOBA against LHBs is pushed up to a .332 xwOBA by Statcast. This could be an undervalued spot for someone like Jose Ramirez (162 wRC+ last 30 days), a switch hitter who doesn’t suffer no matter who the Royals bring to the mound.

A couple of surprisingly poor bullpens over the last 30 days have been the Braves (4.97 ERA, 4.83 xFIP) and Twins (5.24 ERA, 4.96 FIP). Not only are you likely to see a lot of the Minnesota bullpen with Lewis Thorpe starting, but Taylor Rogers and Hansel Robles have been worked extensively early in the week, so you’re likely to see the bottom end of it. What’s more, the Rangers have just a 3.69 implied run line in Minnesota tonight, but seven of nine projected starters exceed a 100 wRC+ overall this year. Nick Solak is at 156 and has a 139 wRC+ vs LHP since 2019. The Atlanta bullpen will be active behind a returning Max Fried as well. Trea Turner has had some success against Fried too (.471 xwOBA with two XBHs in 15 PAs). It may be difficult to find much further value in that lineup though. The Philadelphia bullpen is the last one to mention, with a 5.57 ERA and 4.93 FIP over the last 30 days. Neris threw 40 pitches on Monday and Coonrad 28 on Tuesday too, while Chase Anderson rarely goes deep in his outings, but good luck finding a productive bat in the Milwaukee lineup these days.

High Upside Matchups Are No Help to Daily Fantasy Players Tonight

Top upside spots on the main slate, as determined by opposing strikeout rates, belonging to pitchers costing less than $9K go to Lewis Thorpe (vs Rangers), Martin Perez (vs Tigers) and Shohei Ohtani (vs Rays). This is a mess of unfortunate circumstances. First, in that the Rockies, Orioles, Mariners and Marlins are off the main slate, removing many of the worst offenses in the majors from our choices tonight. Next is the misfortune of having these three pitchers land in the top spots tonight. Thorpe lasted just 60 pitches and four innings in his lone start April 16th, striking out just two of 15 Angels, and last pitched on April 20th. He now has 49 major league innings under his belt with a few spot starts included. The results are a 10.5 K-BB%, 37.9 GB%, 87.5 mph EV and 7.8% Barrels/BBE. The 5.88 ERA is about a run above estimators due to a .395 BABIP. He is at least the minimum on DraftKings if players are looking for a pure punt to pair with Bieber. How much trouble can he get in here? The projected Texas lineup has four batters right in the middle above a 28 K% vs LHP since 2019.

With a 20.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, 36.2 GB% and 88.2 mph EV, there’s really nothing Martin Perez is doing to help the Boston rotation, but he’s somehow allowed just three Barrels (4.3%), only one of which has left the yard. And he still somehow had a 4.90 ERA. It could be even worse. Maybe not against the Tigers though. Six of nine projected starters exceed a 23 K% vs LHP since 2019. Paying more than $6.5K for Perez at Fenway feels very uncomfortable though. Ohtani would be a great option were he available as a pitcher tonight. He is not however.

If you don’t want to pay up for pitching on FanDuel and are still looking for a Quality Start…you may be out of luck, but Chris Bassitt and Ryan Yarbrough could be considerations. Beware Bassitt’s strikeout boost over his last three starts though, as he’s faced the Tigers, Orioles and Rays. The Blue Jays will present a tougher test, but he does face them in a favorable environment at home. Yarbrough has actually averaged more batters per start than anyone except Shane Bieber today. He has a league average 11.2 SwStr% that projects a better strikeout rate than his current 18.1%, In fact, he is up to 21.4% over his last four outings, but it’s really superior control (4.2 BB%) and contact management (83.4 mph EV) that defines him and he’s been doing it for long enough at this point that we can probably spit on his 6.40 DRA (where does that even come from) and perhaps even his 4.86 ERA, more in favor of his 3.86 xERA. He’s the only pitcher on the board who’s made more than three starts with an ERA at least a run above his xERA. The matchup obviously looks much better if Anthony Rendon remains out for the Angels.

The last guy who deserves some recognition is J.T. Brubaker in San Diego tonight. He’s $7.5K or less on either site. A 26.5 K% (13.6 SwStr%) paired with a 4.4 BB% and 54.2 GB% are showing Pittsburgh fans what a breakout looks like before a pitcher leaves the team. His 2.63 ERA is a bit below estimators because the 91.2 LOB% is about 10-15 points too high, but none even reach four. The Padres have just a 91 wRC+ and 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year.