DFS Alerts

League Average Strikeout Rate with Lots of Weak Ground Balls

Sometimes, a bad matchup might not matter as much for a top pitcher, but it’s rare that we’re willing to consider mid-range pitchers in really tough spots. One exception might be tonight where Freddy Peralta takes on the Dodgers (122 wRC+ vs RHP). The strikeout upside is just so enormous (41.8% with a 16.3 SwStr%) for less than $10K. However, it’s not like Peralta is cheap (at least $8K on either site) and does present with some red flags. He’s running up pitch counts quickly with a 14.3 BB% and has gone beyond five innings just once so far. He’s also not helping himself when contact is rarely made with 12.8% Barrels/BBE and a 36.8 GB%. Max Muncy (18.2 BB% vs RHP since 2019) presents a whole set of problems just by himself here, but we still can’t entirely ignore that strikeout rate.

A more under the radar name might be Logan Webb. He faces the Padres (97 wRC+, but just an 11.3 K-BB% vs RHP). Webb raised some expectations with a strong March and has come out of the gate with an increase to his strikeout rate (24.7%) with a 59 GB% that sits behind just Marcus Stroman today. A few too many walks (10.3%), but a league average strikeout rate with an elite ground ball rate is a pretty good pitcher. He also has just an 86.2 mph EV. So, lots of weak ground balls. Webb’s start hasn’t gone unnoticed by DraftKings, as he’s up to $8K. However, he’s just $6.6K on FanDuel and for GPP players who want to embrace some risk, he has exceeded 90 pitches in three of his four starts, including more than 100 last time out. Gabe Kapler is beginning to trust him, making Webb a better candidate for a Quality Start.

A Few Spots Where BvP Could Have Some Impact

When we refer to ownership in daily fantasy, it generally means the percentage of lineups a player appears or is expected to appear in, but in baseball, in a broader sense, it could also pertain to an extremely one sided batter/pitcher matchup. Trevor Story would certainly qualify for Madison Bumgarner ownership with five HRs in 43 PAs, but he’s also struck out in 37.4% of those attempts with a marginally above average .347 xwOBA. We also have to consider the Coors component of that matchup which won’t be present tonight. That’s certainly not to suggest that Story is a suboptimal play tonight, but likely one that won’t under the radar at all.

Filtering Baseball Savant’s Daily Matchup page for at least 15 PAs, two of the top four xwOBA marks belong to Joey Votto vs Jake Arrieta (.582 with four XBH in 24 ) and Michael Conforto vs Chase Anderson (.484 with three HRs in 20 PAs). Moving outside that vacuum, these may be strong team spots against these pitchers too. Anderson has already faced the Mets twice this season with decent results (4 ER in 9 IP) and we have to remember his reverse split (RHBs .367 wOBA, LHBs .307 wOBA since 2019), but that does more to boost RH power than demerit LH power. And while the Mets have struggled this year, each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup exceed a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Another potentially attractive factor is the wind conditions in the north east tonight. Several spots call for strong gusts and while Kevin’s forecast believes them to be mostly left to right, if that shifts a bit, it could boost LH power out to RF in a very power friendly park already. Conforto started the season ice cold, but has been hitting the ball a bit better lately and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel.

Finally, you certainly want to load up on a lineup with LH power in maybe the most power friendly park against Jake Arrieta at this point in his career. Since 2019, LHBs have a .367 wOBA and .374 xwOBA against him and this year, his ground ball rate is down to 35.4% overall. The 2.57 ERA is fraudulent with just an 8.7 SwStr% and 9.4 BB%. All of his non-FIP estimators are above four and potentially even higher if his strikeout rate drops from 22.2%. In addition to Votto (112 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2019), Jesse Winker (146 wRC+, .275 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (114 wRC+, .265 ISO) are even bigger threats here. Both the Reds and Mets find themselves on the top third of the board, around four and a half implied runs tonight.

Conditions Make This an Impossible Spot to Fade a Struggling Offense

The Yankee offense has struggled this year (83 wRC+, 9.8 HR/FB at home), but has handled LHP well (115 wRC+, 21.5 K%, 17.2 HR/FB). Oddsmakers certainly haven’t lost faith in the team as they continue to find themselves among the highest implied run totals on most slates. This has made faders some DFS money this season, but with the Yankees once again atop the board at 5.5 implied runs on Friday, this may be an impossible situation to avoid with far too many factors lining up in their favor. We start with a pitcher who has not only not lived up to his enormous minor league strikeout rates, but Tarik Skubal also has just a 21.1 GB% this year. In just 19 innings, he’s already allowed nine Barrels and walked 13.6% of batters faced. Since being called up last year, RHBs have a .388 wOBA and .379 xwOBA against him with just a 20.4 GB% and he’ll face an overwhelmingly RH lineup tonight. Among batters projected to be in the lineup tonight, Aaron Judge (193 wRC+, .324 ISO), DJ LeMahieu (175 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Kyle Higashioka (154 wRC+, .375 ISO) have all smashed southpaws since 2019. In fact, Aaron Hick is the only projected starter below a .190 ISO vs LHP since 2019.

Skubal has been in a bit of a piggy back situation last couple of times out, but there are a couple of reasons an early exit would not be much of a concern either. The first is that the majority of this lineup hits RH nearly as well as LHP. The second would be that the Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.52 ERA, 5.42 FIP and 4.59 xFIP this year. And if all that isn’t enough, the forecast for tonight includes wind gusts up to 30 mph out to center during this game. It’s almost as if the baseball and weather gods got together and demanded home runs tonight. This is simply an impossible spot to fade Yankee bats, but a great one to load up on.

Possible Breakout Arm at a Low Price

Potential high upside spots not married to top pitchers, as determined by opposing strikeout rates include Andrew Heaney in Seattle, Lance McCullers Jr. in Tampa Bay, Madison Bumgarner vs the Rockies, Marcus Stroman in Philadelphia, Nathan Eovaldi in Texas and Pablo Lopez in Washington. We can immediately cross Stroman and his 16 K% off the list, even if the Phillies might offer more strikeouts than you might expect, but each of the other five feel like viable mid-range arms tonight.

It might surprise you to see that McCullers has only exceeded a 27 K% once in his career. At just a quarter of batters faced this year with a 10.6 SwStr%, he’s merely been league average in that department, but he’s generated 54.2% of contact on the ground as well. The projected lineup for the Rays includes six batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. One concern is a 13.1 BB% that could run up the pitch count quickly. McCullers has averaged just 21 batters per start. Bumgarner may not be as washed as many like to think. The velocity and peripherals (16.1 K-BB%) have rebounded somewhat. A 28.2 GB% and 92.2 mph EV are quite concerning and his Ace days may be well behind him, but he may still have enough left in the tank to put up a quality start against the Rockies. Lopez and Eovaldi are around $8K each. Lopez with a 21.4 K-BB% has allowed more than two runs in just one of five starts. He adds an above average ground ball rate and just an 85.8 mph EV. A 2.93 ERA is within a half run of all estimators except a 3.46 xERA. Four of eight projected Nationals have a 25.9 K% or higher vs RHP. One concern is that Lopez does seem to have a rather large home/road split in his career. Eovaldi has exceeded a 13 SwStr% in four of five starts. The high ground ball rate (53.6%) and low exit velocity (86.6 mph) have generated just three Barrels without a HR yet. They will eventually come, but the strikeout rate might increase too, further improving estimators that are all already below his 3.77 ERA. The Texas offense hasn’t been awful, but there are four batters in the middle of the projected lineup exceeding a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Heaney is showing some breakout traits and may be the top value on the slate if those sustain tonight. He has faced the toughest offenses in the American League (White Sox, Blue Jays, Twins, Astros) and come away with a 36.7 K% that would be a career high by nearly eight points. His 47.6 GB% is more than eight points above his career rate too. Elevated hard contact has been an issue in the past, but he’s allowed just three Barrels so far. Spiking your strikeout and ground ball rates keeps the ball out of the air. The only issue is that it doesn’t immediately appear as if anything in his arsenal has changed or his usage of it, but the Mariners have six batters in the projected lineup with a 25.9 K% or worse vs LHP since 2019. Heaney costs $8.7K on FanDuel, but can be paired with either Cole or Bieber for just $6.8K on DraftKings.

Projected Ownership Could Determine Which Pitcher To Pay Up For

Three pitchers exceed $10K on at least one site tonight with Yu Darvish at $9.5K on DraftKings. No other pitchers have a price tag above $9K. Gerrit Cole will likely be the most popular pitcher on the slate because he’s facing the Tigers. With an outrageous 39.5 K-BB% through five starts against a team with a projected lineup including five batters with a 24.9 K% or higher vs RHP since 2019, there’s very little reason to question why. The wind is blowing…no, blasting out to center, but Detroit has to make contact with the ball for that to be a concern. If they do, Cole’s gotten a bit lucky with three of his four Barrels being allowed in his last start without a HR allowed since his first. The 92.2 mph EV and 35.4 GB% are less of an issue when barely half the batters are making contact.

Speaking of low ground ball rates, there are a couple of maybe not red, but yellow flags in Yu Darvish’s early 2021 profile, despite stellar results. The 30.3 K% is just a single point below each of the last two seasons, but his 11.5 SwStr% is just league average and a multi-point drop from the last couple of years. His velocity is down about a mile per hour from last year too. Despite a career low 30.1 GB%, he still manages contact really well (86.1 mph EV). This is not to suggest that he’s not still a very capable pitcher, but it could be something to keep in mind on close decisions. The Giants don’t strike out much either. Only one batter in the projected lineup exceeds a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Shane Bieber has been down a mile per hour in velocity and while it hasn’t made a difference in his strikeouts (39.3%, 19.1 SwStr%), he has allowed five HRs on seven Barrels (9.5%) . His 44.6 GB% and 89 mph EV are fairly close to career marks. Non-FIP estimators are a bit higher than last year, in the mid-twos. He’s also facing the most potent offense of the three tonight in Chicago (White Sox 117 wRC+ vs RHP, 147 wRC+ last seven days). It’s a dangerous and powerful lineup, but there are still a few things in Bieber’s favor here. There should be some strikeouts in this lineup (23% vs RHP or higher for six of nine projected batters since 2019). He may also benefit from the most pitcher friendly weather conditions of the three with temperatures potentially below 50 degrees. If ownership projections suggest that Cole is going to be an overwhelming favorite tonight, Bieber should be your GPP leverage alternative. If it looks to be a bit closer, Cole may have the slight overall edge. Any of the three is probably fine though tonight.

A High Strikeout Rate, But Plenty of Barrels (18.2%)

The last time the Braves saw Kyle Hendricks a couple of Sunday’s ago, they homered four times…in the first inning! Two of his other three starts have been of the quality variety, but both were against the Brewers and he also struggled with the Pirates in his first outing. While decreased velocity normally wouldn’t be an issue for him, he’s not below 87 mph on average and it’s potentially taking it’s toll. His 20.9 K% is right on his career rate, but the league rate keeps rising and his 8.6 SwStr% is his lowest in four years and he’s already tied his walk total for last year with eight. He’s also allowed seven HRs on 10 Barrels (15.5%) and while his 87.3 mph EV is still well below the league average, it’s a career high for him, while a 36.8 GB% is more than 10 points below his career rate. Hendricks has often baffled analysts by beating his estimators, but this year he’s nearly in line with his 5.55 xERA with a 5.68 ERA. However, the top Atlanta bats are really expensive here (especially on DraftKings) and not who this is really about, believe it or not.

Huascar Ynoa has jumped out to a 29.8 K% (13.8 SwStr%) through four starts, but has only whiffed more than five in one start against the Marlins and has allowed five HRs on 10 Barrels, which comprises 18.2% of his contact. The implied run line for the Cubs hovers around four tonight, which puts them much closer to the bottom of the board than the top, but they may be able to do more damage than expected here. We want to be careful of Kris Bryant’s status tonight, but removing him would leave Willson Contreras as the only batter exceeding $4K on DraftKings. The first thing that sticks out is that Ynoa has about a 100 point reverse split by wOBA since being called up for a few innings in 2019. However, Statcast pulls both sides up to within a point of a .365 xwOBA. Ynoa can miss some bats, but hasn’t been able to limit the damage on batted balls. Nico Hoerner has just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP in his short career, but has started off hot this season with a 203 wRC+ since being recalled and stuck in the leadoff spot. He also costs less than $3K on either site. The biggest surprise is finding Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2019) at just $3.9K on DraftKings. It’s not like he’s been off to a poor start either with a 118 wRC+ and 91 mph EV this year. There’s a decent chance he’s one of the better values on the board tonight.

Great Potential For Elevated Hard Contact

The Padres have just the fourth highest implied run line on a 10 game slate, which barely keeps them on the top quarter of the board, but this looks like one of the top matchups of the day favoring offense. Each of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHP since last season and among that group, Jake Cronenworth (135 wRC+, .213 ISO career vs RHP) has the lowest overall wRC+ this year (95). Taylor Widener is a low end prospect with back end of the rotation upside if things break right and that’s sort of how he’s performed through four starts (12.9 K-BB% with four of eight Barrels leaving the yard and just one-third of his contact on the ground). If we focus on that last part, along with some other Statcast numbers, that may be where the real value lies in the San Diego lineup tonight. While Widener appears to have a 70 point wOBA split since he was called up last year, by xwOBA, RHBs (.369) actually should have done more damage than LHBs (.354). This works fine for the Padres with Fernando Tatis (141 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP career), who is just heating up. The first four batters in the projected lineup for the Padres tonight (Tatis, Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer) all exceed a 97 mph EV on line drives and fly balls this year. If Widener is going to allow the Padres to elevate tonight, he may be in a lot of trouble.

Increased Velocity Hasn't Helped This Young Pitcher

A top pitcher to jump on tonight is Casey Mize in Chicago. The White Sox are not among the top four offenses above five implied runs tonight, but are just two more spots below at four and a half, which should keep them from being too popular. There’s also the perception that Casey Mize has improved this year. His velocity is up and 55.2% of his contact is on the ground. This doesn’t immediately appear like a pitcher we want to attack, but there are plenty or red flags here too. The first is that he’s not missing any bats (15.4 K%, 8.0 SwStr%) and the second is that ground balls have not precluded Barrels. Though he’s generated just 18 fly balls over four starts, six of them have been Barrels and five have left the yard with most of that coming over his last two starts. A stunning stat is that Mize has now faced just over 100 batters from each side of the plate in his career and LHBs are still well above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs haven’t exactly suffered either (.294 wOBA, but .356 xwOBA according to Statcast). Yoan Moncada (129 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is the top bat here. He does cost more than $5K on DraftKings (as do several White Sox), but is a full $2K less on FanDuel. Some extra added incentive is that the Tigers have had the worst bullpen in baseball (5.83 ERA, 5.32 FIP) this year.

Crazy BABIP Hides Potential Breakout

Paying down for pitching might be a viable strategy tonight, as we’re finding some of the higher upside spots on the board landing on pitchers costing $8K or less. We envy matchups with the Rockies (especially on the road), Rangers and Rays (purely on strikeouts) on this 10 game slate. Those spots fall to Alex Wood, Cole Irvin and Alex Cobb tonight.

Wood has struck out 11 of 40 batters faced (13.9 SwStr%) with a 63 GB% and just one walk through two starts. Alex Wood has also faced the Marlins down a couple of key RHBs twice. The Rockies offer just as much if not more futility, but actually have some RH power in the lineup (Story, Cron) and have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Wood also costs more than $8K on either site and is not a pitcher we expect to go much further than twice through the lineup. Irvin, meanwhile, is in a high upside spot in Tampa Bay. It’s a negative run environment and six of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs LHP since 2019 with only a few dangerous bats. He showed some upside in March that didn’t carry over to his first few starts of the regular season, but has been much better since. He’s since struck out 12 of 48 batters with just one run allowed over 11.1 innings, but he’s also faced the Tigers and Orioles. He fits the potential sleeper box as a SP2 on DraftKings for just $7.2K if ownership is going to be low enough.

Cobb looks like the real potential gem here and possibly the top pitching value on the board. A peak at the 6.28 ERA might suggest that this is the same guy from his Baltimore years, but he’s actually struck out 21 of 68 batters with a 16.1 SwStr%. Walks? Just 7.4%. Hard contact? Two Barrels (5%) and a 53.8 GB%. It’s that silly BABIP (.436). His worst estimator is a 3.81 xERA. All other estimators are more than half a run below even that. The Angels have him cutting down his sinker to one-third of his offerings, splitting the difference between spitters and curves. Meanwhile, the Rangers do have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP, but a projected lineup that includes just three batters below a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. Cobb should see a turnaround overall if these numbers sustain and that could start in a high upside spot tonight.

All Of Tonight's Top Arms Carry Risk

Three pitchers on a 10 game slate reach the $9K or higher mark on both sites with Tyler Glasnow the only one who exceeds $10K on both sites. He was tagged for two HRs and five runs last time out, his second straight difficult outing in a row, as he previously walked four Yankees. Glasnow’s piling up the whiffs every time out (39.7 K%, 16 SwStr%) and we thought the new slider he’s throwing 27.6% of the time would give opposing hitters a new look that would help with his HR issues, but his both previous control and long ball problems have popped back up again most recently. The upside is still tremendous whenever he takes the mound, but facing patient teams with power, could be problematic. That does pretty seem to describe Oakland. Only one player in the projected lineup is below a .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019. That said, a few HRs might not be that big of a deal if he strikes out 10 or more.

Outside of his no-hitter and near perfect game, Carlos Rodon has walked eight of 46 batters with only four ground balls. The velocity increase is real though and he also struck out 17 of those 46 batters. Let’s not completely omit the no-hitter either. Things are looking up here, but some of those old control issues have reared their head. He’s also facing a projected lineup, which includes just three batters above a .160 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and six above a 23 K%.

Zack Greinke has allowed six of his 10 runs, three of his four HRs and three of his four walks in just one start…and against the Tigers of all teams. The strikeout rate is down to 17.2% with an 8.4 SwStr% and his 39.6 GB% is his lowest since 2007. An 85.5 LOB% is unsustainable as well, but the contact management has never been better. His four HRs have come with just three Barrels (2.9%) with an 85 mph EV and his best start of the season was against these Mariners two outings back where he had everything working and he still only struck out six of 27 batters. Another eight shutout innings would work though.

This is not an easy decision. Glasnow is probably your top overall arm, but comes with some risk and is likely to be the highest owned. The matchup may make Rodon the better value for $9.8K on DraftKings, but he’s also the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($11K). Greinke may be the leverage here, but we need him to be nearly perfect to pay off, while carrying the reduced strikeout rate. The best approach may to have an equal mix of all three in GPPs.

This Lineup May Be Ready To Break Out

For the sake of his career, let’s hope that Garrett Richard’s claim that his struggles may be due to cold weather are at least partially true because it’s been ugly. On top of a mile per hour velocity dip, he’s struck out one fewer than he’s walked (-1.2 K-BB%). He’s only allowed two HRs and Barrels (3.5%), but that may just be some good luck with an average ground ball rate and 91.1 mph EV. On the other side, Mets’ bats may not be the most popular tonight. Their 4.6 implied run line is strong, but not all that close to the top of the board, Citi Field is a well-known negative run environment and only three of eight projected starters are above a 100 wRC+ this season. However, Michael Conforto (144 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is starting to heat up (99 wRC+ on the season now) and costs less than $4K on either site (less than $3K on FD) and the three above average hitters have been well above average hitters: Brandon Nimmo (177 wRC+), Pete Alonso (149 wRC+) and J.D. Davis (223 wRC+). Each of the first seven projected batters exceed a 110 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHP since 2019. That the Mets also usually offer a well-balanced lineup plays in their favor too here, as batters from either side of the plate sit between a .326 to .348 wOBA and xwOBA against Richards since 2019, according to Statcast.

A .350+ wOBA For Batters From Either Side of the Plate

Loading up on bats in Baltimore is going to be the popular thing to do tonight, but players can differentiate and perhaps find a bit of leverage by going with the opposite lineup. Corey Kluber has missed most the last three seasons, but in the small sample since 2019, he really hasn’t looked very much at all like his old self. In fact, according to Statcast, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA against him over that time span. Negative indicators just this year include significant velocity loss, a 15.1 BB% (4.1 K-BB%) and 13% Barrels/BBE). The Orioles don’t have a lot of above average bats and it shows in implied run line right around four, but it also shows in their price tags. Cedric Mullins (who homered twice last night and added a double, leading the projected lineup with a 183 wRC+ this year), D.J. Stewart (109 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Austin Hays (130 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019) can all be found for $3.5K or less on either site. In fact, Mullins at $3.5K on DraftKIngs hold the only price tag among the three even above $3K. Kluber still has a league average SwStr% and may not be completely done, but we’ve been seeing a reduced version of him so far and Baltimore bats may be able to take advantage of that.

An Under-valued Stacking Spot Utilizing Same-Handed Batters

There are quite a few obvious spots to load up on bats tonight and very affordably so in some cases, but a less obvious spot may not only be in Tampa Bay with the Athletics sitting merely in the middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs, but also with same handed bats against Michael Wacha. The key here is that even though LHBs hit him well (.330 wOBA, .340 xwOBA since 2019 according to Statcast), RHBs have done the most damage (.384 wOBA, .366 xwOBA). The A’s are expected to offer a balanced lineup with only one batter below either 110 wRC+ or .200 ISO vs RHP over the same time span. That list of potent bats includes four RHBs (Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Sean Murphy). Canha (144 wRC+, .213 ISO) offers the most value out of the leadoff spot for just $3.9K on DraftKings. His 149 wRC+ overall this year is higher than any other RHB in the projected lineup. There’s no reason to fear the banged up Tampa Bay bullpen behind Wacha either. A 4.41 ERA and 4.60 xFIP has them among the worst relief units in the league.

Top Offense May Also Be Top Value

Yankee bats failed big time in a top spot against Matt Harvey last night. That hasn’t stopped odds makers from installing them as the top offense on the boar again tonight, as the only team above five implied runs and both sites are making it very difficult to fade them. FanDuel is especially guilty tonight with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton the only batters in the projected lineup above $3K on either site. With Gio Urshela (116 wRC+, .192 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and Gleyber Torres (120 wRC+, .212 ISO) as part of your stack in the middle of the order for $2.5K or less, there’s certainly enough room left over to pay up for pitching. Urshela only costs $3.1K on DraftKings as well, potentially making him the top value on the board against Bruce Zimmermann, whom RHBs have.399 xwOBA against since last year. DJ LeMahieu (173 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2019) costs just $3K on FanDuel. With the Yankees being potentially the top value on the slate and very affordable, they’re a near lock for elevated ownership rates, which may make going under-weight a profitable proposition again tonight, but the middle of this order may be impossible to fade if paying up for pitching. However, only Urshela and Judge exceed a 100 wRC+ overall this year among projected starters.

A Starter With a Large Platoon Split Backed By a Terrible Bullpen

It may not need to be said, but the bullpen to attack, without a doubt tonight, is the Detroit Tigers. Adding up their ERA, SIERA, xFIP and FIP and dividing by four puts them at 5.20. No other team is above five and only two more are above four and a half. The Detroit starter tonight, Jose Urena, has a 12.9 BB%, which should run up his pitch count quite quickly, though he has completed seven innings in back to back starts with just three walks. To make it even more enticing, Gregory Soto threw 26 pitches last night and may not be available. Since 2019, Urena has a large split (LHBs .398 wOBA), which greatly enhances Yoan Moncada’s outlook tonight (130 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2019). RHBs also have a .321 xwOBA against Urena over that span, so full stacks are certainly warranted for a projected lineup that sees just one batter below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019. Only the Yankees have a higher implied run line than the White Sox tonight.

The Reds (4.82) and Rockies (4.73) are the next worst bullpens on our list and while both play in West Coast parks tonight, players rarely need additional incentive to attack Chi Chi Gonzalez (in San Francisco) or utilize Dodger bats. The Dodgers and Reds also went an extra-inning last night in a game where Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims both exceeded 30 pitches for Cincinnati.