DFS Alerts

Strong Option if Back in Action

Mike Moustakas hasn’t been in the lineup for the last couple of games but did see a PH opportunity in last night’s game against the Rockies which is a positive sign he’s trending in the right direction for suiting up on Saturday night. Unsurprisingly the Brewers have a massive implied run total (7.3) against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors and you’re going to want to get exposure to their offense wherever possible. Gonzalez has struggled to miss bats this year for the Rockies with a 15.6% strikeout rate and has especially struggled against left-handed hitters with a .370 wOBA and 6.17 xFIP.

Nick Castellanos (groin) scratched Friday; Albert Almora Jr. replaces

Castellanos has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to right groin tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Albert Almora Jr., who will now play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Cubs batting order but, most notably, bumps Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber up to second and third, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Chicago faces off against right-hander Dakota Hudson on the road this evening.

Just three pitchers above a 26 K% on Friday's MLB slate

It’s quite difficult to navigate the pitching on tonight’s slate. Among the several pitchers, including many younger arms, who have had their workloads more limited for most of this month, many of the top pitchers are pitching for teams who can’t much better their post-season positions and are merely tuning up for the big show next week. Look no further than the highest strikeout rate on the board, Tyler Glasnow (33.5%), who fits both categories as he works his way back from injury.

James Paxton (29.5%) and Walker Buehler (29.1%) are the only other pitchers above a 26 K% on the board tonight. Paxton has allowed a single ER over his last four starts and is in a high upside spot against a Texas offense that struggles against LHP and strikes out a ton. However, he’s still a fly ball prone pitcher (38.6%) in Texas in a game where the Yankees are less invested in the outcome than in having Paxton ready to go against the Twins next week.

Buehler is in a very similar spot, but his matchup is matchup is similarly advantageous in a much better park. He pitches in San Francisco, where the Giants have a 78 wRC+ and 9.3 HR/FB. The projected lineup for the Giants includes just two players above .190 ISO against RHP and just three above a .325 wOBA. You may not have even noticed that Buehler hasn’t reached 100 pitches in seven straight starts. That’s because he’s been efficient enough to complete seven innings twice in that span. In fact, he’s gone at least seven innings 11 times this year and has only six starts where he’s thrown more than 100 pitches, three with more than 102. Buehler has shown the ability to get deep into games without a ton of pitches and this seems like a spot where he could do so again. Still, it’s a risk paying up for any of tonight’s high priced arms considering the circumstances.

The Seattle offense is spiraling downward (16 wRC+, 23.7 K-BB%, -6.9 Hard-Soft% last seven days)

Mike Fiers couldn’t make it out of the second inning (12 ERs) in two consecutive starts in the state of Texas before returning home to throw eight shutout innings against the Rangers in the rematch last time out. He’s a contact prone pitcher (16.6 K%), who doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, while his ERA (3.91) is more than a run below estimators due to a .253 BABIP and 78.9 LOB%. However, he does pitch in front of a quality defense (.278 BABIP allowed) in a park that benefits fly ball pitchers (39.3 GB%) with a lot of foul territory. He’s not pitching at home tonight, but at least transitions to another firmly negative run environment in Seattle against an offense that has been spiraling downward. While the Mariners actually have a few interesting left-handed bats, Fiers has a bit of reverse split (LHBs .295 wOBA, .145 ISO). Over the last week, this offense has a 16 wRC+ with a 23.7 K-BB% and a 7.5 HR/FB. The most ridiculous stat is a -6.9 Hard-Soft% over this span. Fiers is not a pitcher daily fantasy players often talk about, but considering the state of pitching on tonight’s slate where we have a lot of uncertain workloads or pitchers we know won’t go very deep, Fiers makes some sense for around $8K, pitching for a team that hasn’t yet locked in their post-season spot.

Asher Wojciechowski brings a 29.4 GB% and 10.9% Barrels/BBE to Fenway

Asher Wojciechowski has some value when he was missing bats earlier in the season, but that’s no longer the case. Combine that with a 29.4 GB% and there’s bound to be some damage even without a high aEV (10.9% Barrels/BBE). The Red Sox have the highest implied run line outside Coors or Texas tonight (6.36) and are starting the majority of their regulars tonight with Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (153 wRC+, .281 ISO). The absence of J.D. Martinez pushes Mitch Moreland (126 wRC+, .291 ISO), who has the top ISO vs RHP in this lineup and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel, into the cleanup spot. LHBs have a .382 wOBA (.361 xwOBA) against Wojciechowksi this year. Jackie Bradley Jr. (101 wRC+, .234 ISO) has had an under-rated season and moves a few spots up the order as well.

Nathan Eovaldi has a 28.4 K% (13.3 SwStr%) over the last month and costs $4.1K on DraftKings

Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 11 ERs over his last 14.1 IP, but also has a 28.4 K% and 13.3 SwStr% over the last 30 days. His SIERA and xFIP are over a run below his 6.03 ERA, but still around four and a half while his FIP and DRA are near six. Even over the last month, his .329 xwOBA is 43 points better than actual results, yet still merely league average. His 90.7 mph aEV is worst on the board among those with more than a few starts, but he’s in a favorable spot against the Orioles (87 wRC+, 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP) and even reached 100 pitches last time out. It all looks very marginal until you see Eovaldi’s price tag on DraftKings ($4.1K), which likely makes him the top value on the board. Taking Eovaldi along with another mid-range pitcher would allow players to stack Coors (Brewers) and Texas (Yankees) bats tonight fairly comfortably.

T.J. Zeuch has allowed 45.3% of his contact above a 95 mph EV since debuting

T.J. Zeuch struck out six of 16 Yankees last time out. His outings have been limited to fewer than 90 pitches all four times out. The 24 year-old had just a 2.1 K-BB% in 78 AAA innings and a 40 Future Valu grade via Fangraphs. Though he’s generated high ground ball rates (57.1% AAA, 50.9% MLB), he’s still allowed 11.3% Barrels/BBE and a 45.3% 95+ mph EV since debuting, resulting in a .361 xwOBA that’s 38 points worse than actual results. This is a nice spot for a Tampa Bay offense implied for 5.73 runs tonight. Joey Wendle hasn’t done much (91 wRC+, .140 ISO vs RHP), but would still have value at a low price if he remains in the leadoff spot. Austin Meadows (153 wRC+, .275 ISO) is your top overall Rays’ bat. Brandon Lowe (141 wRC+, .271 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year, though seven of the nine are above .160.

Everything Lines Up Here

The Brewers are one of the only teams left with something to play for this weekend, and on top of that, they get a trip to Coors field to face the lowest strikeout pitcher on this slate. Antonio Senzatela has struck out just 12.3% of lefties this season with almost as many walks, and while he’s a strong ground ball pitcher to righties, it’s just a moderate 48% GB to lefties with 39% hard hits and a .222 ISO. Yasmani Grandal is the standout at the catcher position tonight, while Mike Moustakas .266 ISO and big 48% fly balls play perfectly in this matchup.

The Salary Says It All

The idea of Nate Eovaldi at extreme ownership is certainly not exciting, but this is just simply a salary mistake on DK/FDRFT. Eovaldi is not much below an average pitcher, and has the upside of an above average starter, and he’s priced as a straight up reliever punt. He got up to 100 pitches in his last start and he has a 28.4% strikeout rate over his last 23 innings and a 23.9% K rate for the season. He’s just too cheap, end of story.

Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 xwOBA against Zach Plesac

Zach Plesac has been regressing with at least four runs in four of his last six starts, but still has a 3.82 ERA (.248 BABIP, 79 LOB%) that’s well below all of his estimators, which are above five and confirmed by a .352 xwOBA. The interesting thing here is that Plesac has shown a substantial platoon split this year (RHBs .336 wOBA, LHBs .288). However, Statcast suggests there’s really no split at all and Plesac should be far worse against LHBs (.347 xwOBA), while also worse against RHBs (.355). Players should feel comfortable firing up the majority of the Washington lineup (5.13 implied runs). Trea Turner (119 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP), Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO) are your top bats, Turner and Asdrubal Cabrera (97 wRC+, .193 ISO) are swinging the hottest bats in the projected lineup, both above a 200 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week.

Mis-priced For Expected Role

The only explanation I can think of for Nathan Eovaldi’s $4,100 price tag on DraftKings is that they think the Red Sox are going to treat him as more of an opener for Friday’s game. At the time of this writing, I haven’t seen anything to indicate Eovaldi will see that much of a reduced role after tossing 100 pitches in his last outing on the 22nd. Due to his price tag, Eovaldi is an option in all formats on DraftKings/Fantasy Draft – he’s an okay cash option but more of a tournament option on FanDuel and Yahoo!

Accessible Price Tag in Favorable Matchup

Velasquez has been a bit of a nightmare in terms of hard contact allowed this season (47.2 Hard%) but it’s tough to pass up his accessible price tag in a favorable home matchup. VV will toe the rubber against a projected Marlins lineup that has has combined for a measly .135 ISO, .299 wOBA, and 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Despite, VV’s hard-hit woes, he does offer some strikeout upside and owns the third highest strikeout rate (25.9%) on the slate of pitchers who have thrown at least 65 innings.

Marlins projected lineup doesn't feature a batter above a .150 ISO vs RHP among front seven

Vince Velasquez is a volatile pitcher, whose 4.76 ERA is actually within 60 points of all of his estimators. The ERA bumps up to 5.13, though the estimators actually drop slightly, since moving back into the rotation in June. His 10.4% Barrels/BBE is the lowest of six pitchers above 10% tonight. The key attraction here is the Miami offense. They have a 71 wRC+ on the road and 78 wRC+ with a 25 K% vs RHP. This projected lineup doesn’t feature a batter above a .150 ISO vs RHP this year in the first seven spots, which helps alleviate our key fear against Velasquez. The remaining concern is that he’s even completed five innings (and no more) in just two of his last six starts and would be a difficult roster on FanDuel. However, his price tag is $1.4K less on DraftKings ($6.2K), where he has the upside to make a solid compliment to some of the more expensive pitchers on the board, although there’s not really anyone it’s completely necessary to pay up for tonight.

Pablo Lopez has a career 23.4 HR/FB on the road

Pablo Lopez has a 14.5 K-BB% this season and a 14.4 K-BB% on the road since last season. The difference would seem to be in a 15.3 HR/FB this season overall, but a 23.4 HR/FB on the road since last season. It’s the park, right? But his .354 xwOBA on the road this year is well above his overall mark of .315, so the contact seems to be poor as well. Either way, he’s really been struggling lately. Although he allowed just three runs last time out, he did so in five innings with four walks and just one strikeout. It was the second time in three starts he’d walked four with fewer strikeouts. His velocity has been down about a mile per hour over his last few starts too. This is a significant park downgrade for Lopez and although the Philadelphia lineup is depleted, it still has Bryce Harper (114 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP) against a pitcher who has surrendered a .353 wOBA to LHBs this year (.269 to RHBs). Injuries also offer an opportunity for to roster cheaper bats in perhaps Cesar Hernandez (103 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Brad Miller (122 wRC+, .318 ISO), both potentially in the top half of the order tonight. The latter has a 200 wRC+ with a 50% hard hit rate over the last week. At 5.3 implied runs, the Phillies find themselves just inside the top 10 offenses on the board tonight.

Yankees have a 7.00 implied total in Arlington tonight

The Yankees get a great matchup at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight vs. Joe Palumbo. Palumbo had decent numbers in the minors, but has really struggled over 6 games (3 starts) in the Bigs, coughing up a 9.22 ERA with a .381 xwOBA allowed. With Giancarlo Stanton back this Yankee lineup is looking as dangerous as ever, especially against lefties as the majority of the Yankees’ lineup will have the platoon advantage. Aaron Judge (.459 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.416), Luke Voit (.396), Gleyber Torres (.375), Austin Romine (.355), Gio Urshela (.324), Didi Gregorius (.305) and Giancarlo Stanton (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP last year) are all great options tonight. Judge, Stanton and Voit all have an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. On Draftkings only Stanton, Gregorius, Voit, Urshela and Romine are priced at $4.5k or less. Pricing is a bit more flexible on Fanduel, where Judge is the only NYY hitter over $4k. The Yankees currently have a juicy 7.00 implied total vs. Palumbo and the Rangers tonight.