DFS Alerts
Cheap Stack In Sneakily Favorable Spot
I know San Francisco is one of the worst hitting environments on the slate, but surprisingly the Giants are currently sporting a 4.9 implied run total tonight, several notches above what you’d expect. Robert Dugger has only a 15.6% K rate, 47% hard hits with 39.4% fly balls, most of which pitching in the comfortable confines of Marlins Park. With San Fran being a low K team to begin with, I expect many balls to be put into play in this outing. Mike Yastrzemski is the only bat over $4k on DraftKings, so you could easily get a 5-man stack under $20k total that can fill scarce positions with Posey at C and Crawford at SS. At around just 5% average ownership and much attention to be paid on Coors Field, I don’t this stack is that crazy of a play in large-field GPPs.
Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Jaylin Davis, Buster Posey
Cheap Power To Make Things Work
I don’t love the idea of trying to pick on Mike Minor, who I consider one of the better pitchers on this slate, but the power upside of this A’s offense is real. Minor has only allowed 23 home runs this season and a low .654 OPS to right-handed batters this season, so he’s not prone to getting lit up. The appeal here is that this A’s team is motivated and fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive (they dropped 14 runs last night), and this game is in favorable hitting conditions with the weather in the 90s. Khris Davis is my favorite option on this team given his cheap price tag, power upside and ability to help you jam in top-end pitching and Coors exposure (should you go that way).
Ace In The Making
Jack Flaherty rises to the top for me with the best strikeout matchup of the upper tier options today (and he faces a Brewers team that no longer has Christian Yelich). My currently lean is to use Flaherty as the SP1 in cash games and chase the strikeout upside, but I can somewhat see the argument of pivoting down to Bumgarner in cash and taking the better matchup and game environment. Flaherty is only $600 more than Bumgarner on FanDuel and $4 more on Yahoo, whereas Flaherty is $1,900 more on DraftKings, so the argument to “pivot down” to Bumgarner is stronger on DraftKings. I think one of these two should be your cash game anchor, and I lean Flaherty and his 29.1 K%. He’s been in elite form down the stretch and with the Cardinals still playing for something, expect St. Louis to continue playing motivated baseball.
Sneaky Stack
Seattle is my cheap sneaky stack on the slate. With Coors and Houston soaking up a lot of ownership, Seattle could fly under the radar. Seattle has a bunch of lefties in their lineup and Dylan Cease has a 12% walk rate, 269 ISO, and a 394 wOBA to lefty bats. I like this stack in large field tournaments, starting it with Seager, Crawford, Narvaez, and Vogelbach all of which have a 200 ISO or higher to right handed pitching.
Other tagged players: Omar Narvaez, Daniel Vogelbach, J.P. Crawford
Top One Off Bat
Charlie Blackman is always in play at Coors field. He gets the lefty in Eric Lauer and normally, even at home, we get a lower ownership when he faces a lefty. Blackman against lefties this year has a 254 ISO, 376 wOBA, and a 48% hard hit rate. This is easily a matchup where Blackman can get it done and if we can get the lower ownership he will be a great tournament play.
Contrarian SP Option
Rodriguez draws a tough matchup against the Phillies, but has shown the upside even in tough matchups. Rodriguez has had 24+ DK points in 4 out of his last 5 games. He can rack top the strikeouts in bunches and I think he has a very low ownership with this matchup against the Phillies. I think in GPPs he is a great contrarian play and I really like the price tag on Fanduel at 8800.
Mike Fiers has allowed a 4.37 HR/9 and .436 xwOBA over the past month
It has been a weird season for Fiers, who started out the season with a 7.03 ERA through April, then had a 2.45 ERA from May to July. Over the past month, Fiers has been getting roughed up again with an 8.34 ERA, 5.30 SIERA, 1.94 WHIP, 4.37 HR/9 and .436 xwOBA over the past 30 days. He gets a start tonight in Globe Life Park vs. the Rangers, who don’t have a great lineup but do have a very hitter-friendly home park that will make it tough for Fiers to turn it around. Shin-Soo Choo (.388 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nick Solak (.362), Danny Santana (.347), Nomar Mazara (.346), Ronald Guzman (.341), Willie Calhoun (.325), Rougned Odor (.308) and Elvis Andrus (.296) are all potential options for tonight. Odor has mostly had a rough year, but does have a .389 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. All Rangers’ bats are $4.4k or more on DK with the exception of Ronald Guzman ($3.8k) and Jeff Mathis ($2k) who will both likely bat at the bottom of the order. Fiers has a bit of a reverse platoon split, but it’s not drastic and he can be targeted from either side of the plate. The Rangers currently have a 5.13 implied total vs. Fiers and the A’s.
Other tagged players: Ronald Guzman, Rougned Odor, Nick Solak, Shin-soo Choo
MadBum gets a nice matchup at home vs. Marlins
Bumgarner has put together another pretty solid year, posting a 3.77 ERA, 4.29 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA with an improved 24.1% K rate, 5.1% BB Rate and 11.1% SwStr. Per Statcast, he also owns a .312 xwOBA allowed, 8.6% barrel rate and 89.4 MPH aEV. Bumgarner gets a matchup tonight at home vs. the Marlins, who have been dreadful with a 2nd-worst 80 wRC+ and 22.8% K rate vs. LHP on the year. They also have just an 83 wRC+ and 25.9% K rate over the past 30 days. Bumgarner doesn’t project to have the platoon advantage versus a single batter in the Marlins’ lineup, but he does have an advantage pitching at home, where he’s been decidedly better in his career. Since 2015, Bumgarner has a 2.31 ERA / 2.95 FIP, 20.6% K-BB, 0.96 WHIP and .277 xwOBA allowed at home, compared to a 4.12 ERA / 4.06 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB, 1.22 WHIP and .314 xwOBA allowed on the road. Bumgarner is pretty affordable, coming in at $8.9k on Draftkings and $9.9k on Fanduel and making him one of the top projected PTS/$ pitchers on each site tonight. The Marlins currently have just a 3.02 implied total vs. Bumgarner and the Giants.
Offers Valuable Salary Relief In Good Matchup
I wrote up Tyler Beede as my top overall pitcher last night and I’m going to double-down on a cheapie again tonight with Dylan Cease. Despite his season-long numbers, Cease actually projects to be a more talented pitcher than Beede and certainly has better strikeout stuff as he pushed a 30% strikeout rate in the Minors last season and has hovered around a serviceable 24% strikeout rate this season in 62 Major League innings. Similar to Beede last night, the salary relief Cease provides in a favorable matchup is just too difficult to pass up on a night where Coors hitters are in play.
Felix Hernandez has 8.04 ERA / 7.99 FIP in 4 starts since return from IL
On a steady decline since 2016, Felix currently has a 6.96 ERA / 5.16 xFIP on the year with a 1.56 WHIP, 2.32 HR/9, 43.8% hard contact rate and an 8.9% SwStr over 54 and 1.3 innings in 2019. He spent almost 4 months on the IL with a shoulder problem from May to late August, and since returning on 8/24 has posted an 8.04 ERA with a 4% K-BB, 1.72 WHIP, 2.9 HR/9, 40% hard contact rate and .422 xwOBA allowed. Felix faces the White Sox tonight, who are not a great offense but could provide both some value in cash games and some low-owned upside in GPPs. Yoan Moncada (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jose Abreu (.357), Eloy Jimenez (.346), Tim Anderson (.326), James Mccann (.314), Zack Collins (.299) and Leury Garcia (.264) are all potential options. Zack Collins had a 140 wRC+ / .265 ISO over 367 PA in AAA this year and has upside in the catcher slot at just $2.9k on Draftkings. Leury Garcia isn’t a great hitter, but does mix in a few steals (15 this year) and should leadoff at just $3.8k. Eloy Jimenez is crushing it over the past 2 weeks with a .479 xwOBA, followed closely by Jose Abreu with a .469 mark. The White Sox have currently have a 4.75 implied total, a number I wouldn’t be surprised to see them easily surpass.
Other tagged players: Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Zack Collins, Leury Garcia, Tim Anderson Coors Cheat Code
As I stated yesterday when the Rockies squared off against Joey Lucchesi, any time Nolan Arenado faces a left-handed pitcher in Coors he’s essentially a free square regardless of that pitcher’s skill-set. Arenado didn’t disappoint last night as he hit his third HR in his last four games and the matchup is even more favorable on Saturday night against southpaw Eric Lauer. Using Road-Home platoon splits is largely useless but I just can’t help it when it comes to Arenado in Coors as his career numbers are #NSFW: 179 wRC+, .376 ISO. Trevor Story is as good of a play as Arenado as the two are the top overall plays on the slate.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story Jack Flaherty has a 0.80 ERA and 32.5% K rate since early July
There are a number of reasons to be excited about Flaherty tonight vs. the Brewers. After a so-so start to the year, Flaherty really turned a corner in early July. Since July 7th, Flaherty has posted a 0.80 ERA (!), 2.33 FIP, 32.5% K rate and 6.2% BB Rate with a 0.73 WHIP and a .236 xwOBA allowed. He faces the Brewers tonight at home, where he’s been much better in his career: Flaherty has a 2.86 ERA / 3.52 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 22.9% K-BB and .264 xwOBA allowed in home starts, compared to a 3.81 ERA / 3.95 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, 17.9% K-BB and .303 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Without Christian Yelich the Brewers have a pretty mediocre lineup; they don’t have any batters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .350 this year, with only 5 of 8 batters greater than .295. Flaherty is priced at $10.5k on Fanduel and $10.8k on Draftkings, which seems pretty affordable given his dominance over the past couple of months.
Astros in a nice spot to tee off vs. Mike Montgomery
Despite a relatively easy schedule (vs. Mets, Orioles, vs. Athletics, vs. Tigers, Marlins) over his past 5 starts, Montgomery has struggled to a 4.80 xFIP, 7.8% K-BB and 1.52 WHIP with a 44% hard contact and .358 xwOBA allowed over the past 30 days. Tonight he gets by far the toughest matchup he’s had in a while, an Astros’ lineup that has a league-leading 133 wRC+ vs. LHP on the year, as well as a league-leading 135 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Jose Altuve (.437 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yordan Alvarez (.397), George Springer (.395), Robinson Chirinos (.386), Alex Bregman (.366), Aledmys Diaz (.348), Yuli Gurriel (.325) and Michael Brantley (.305) are all potential options in the Astros’ projected lineup. George Springer has been on fire with a scorching .462 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Yordan Alvarez has also seen the ball well with a .421 mark in the past 2 weeks. There aren’t many discounts to be had in this lineup, but they do have a nice 5.92 implied total and make for a solid GPP stack as usual.
Value and upside in Padres' projected lineup in Coors tonight
Peter Lambert has gotten shelled in the majority of his 17 starts this year as he has a 6.86 ERA, 5.15 xFIP and 5.42 SIERA with a 5.8% K-BB, 1.72 WHIP, 39.3% hard contact rate and just a 6.7% SwStr. Lambert does have a 47.8% GB rate, but it’s mostly for naught as he still gives up a ton of home runs (1.88 HR/9) and lacks swing-and-miss stuff as evidenced by the K-BB and SwStr. He’s also allowed a .361 xwOBA and 88.8 MPH aEV. Nick Martini (.345 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Eric Hosmer (.324), Manny Machado (.322), Luis Urias (.317), Josh Naylor (.316), Wil Myers (.312) and Austin Hedges (.268) are all potential options in the Padres’ projected lineup. Despite a healthy 6.50 implied total, 5 of 8 Padres’ hitters are under $4.3k on Draftkings. Greg Garcia (projected to leadoff, $4.2k), Nick Martini (projected 2nd, $4k) and Eric Hosmer (4th, $4.6k) all look like nice values, as well as both Urias and Hedges coming in under $3.5k and batting later in the order. Ty France has been the Padres’ hottest hitter with a .399 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Wil Myers with a .375 mark.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Luis Urias, Nick Martini, Eric Hosmer Mike Trout (toe) scratched Friday; Jared Walsh replaces
Trout has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Friday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to a nagging toe injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jared Walsh, who will now play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Angels batting order but, most notably, bumps Brian Goodwin up to leadoff, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Los Angeles faces off against right-hander Charlie Morton at home this evening.
As reported by: Fabian Ardaya via Twitter Other tagged players: Jared Walsh