DFS Alerts
Sandy Alcantara is pitching deep into games with increased strikeouts (23.2% last 30 days)
Sandy Alcantara has frustratingly underperformed a 10.9 SwStr% all season, partially due to a double digit walk rate that got him to ball four before strike three too often. However, it seems a light has clicked on recently, as he’s struck out at least seven in four straight starts over which he’s walked just nine batters. Alcantara has been a solid contact manager all season. An 86.7 mph aEV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, and 18.9 LD%, along with a great park, have helped him sustain a .265 BABIP and 10.3 HR/FB, generating a 4.04 ERA a run below his non-FIP estimators. While he’s not in Miami tonight, he transitions to another great pitcher’s park to face an offense bereft of power (Giants 76 wRC+, 9.1 HR/FB at home). Alcantara has also thrown at least seven innings in five of his last six starts. He might just be the mid-range pitcher, elite arm faders are looking for around $8K.
Andrew Heaney has a 33.3 K% and 15.4 SwStr% last 30 days
With all of the Aces on tonight’s slate, there’s a good chance a high upside arms goes well under-owned tonight. Andrew Heaney’s 29.2 K% is only sixth best on this slate, but over the last month, he’s struck out one-third of batters faced (15.4 SwStr%) with a 3.38 ERA almost a full run below his season rate with matching estimators around a run lower as well. Heaney does have occasional HR issues (8.5% Barrels/BBE), but they’re not too out of hand and the projected lineup for the Rays features just two batters above a .200 IS0 vs LHP this year. Even more encouraging, it features six batters with a 21.9 K% or higher against southpaws this year. Heaney’s not the safest pick on the board, but he’s a high upside on in a high upside spot for less than $10K (just $8.4K on FanDuel).
Projected Cincinnati lineup has three batters above a .300 ISO vs RHP this year
Mike Leake has elite control. His 3.2 BB% is lowest on the board, but he throws a bunch of pitches over the plate that get hammered. He has just a 7.8 K% over the last month, while his xwOBA is above .350 for the month and season. His 90.7 mph aEV and 43.3% 95+ mph EV are both second worst on the board, behind only Tyler Beede, who gets to face the Marlins tonight. Not that the Cincinnati lineup boasts a lot of quality bats, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA vs RHP this year. The projected lineup for the Reds features Joey Votto (111 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP) and then three batters above a .300 ISO vs RHP this year: Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .302 ISO), Aristides Aquino (128 wRC+, .349 ISO) and Derek Dietrich (117 wRC+, .311 ISO). There’s a good chance one or two of them punish a Leake offering or two tonight.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Mike Leake, Derek Dietrich, Joey Votto The One To Play Here
The Padres are not an ideal team to stack up right now, but going into Coors Field is enough of a boost to go out of our way to get at least one bat here in cash games. The top San Diego bat is Manny Machado and it lines up well with the reverse splits of Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman has struck out just 17.1% of righties while allowing 43% fly balls and 41% hard hits. Machado is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 20% strikeout rate, and he is the first Padres bat I’ll use in all formats tonight.
Aaron Civale has an ERA much lower than estimators and troubling wind conditions tonight
Cleveland is already a sneaky top five positive run environment in baseball and tonight the forecast calls for winds out to center 10-15 mph that will give it another significant boost. Aaron Civale has a 1.93 ERA and allowed just his second HR (4.0 HR/FB) and first Barrel (0.8%) of the season to these Twins last time out, the only run he allowed despite just one more strikeout (four) than walks (three). The home run rate and quite possibly the .267 BABIP (23.3 LD%) are unsustainable, while three of his 13 runs have been unearned. While he has a .270 xwOBA, imagine something somewhere in between his 2.97 FIP, 4.64 SIERA and 5.16 DRA. While Civale legitimately has an xwOBA below .300 against batters from either side of the plate, as a fly ball pitcher (39.1 GB%), players still have to consider with three powerful bats in the middle: Jorge Polanco (139 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP), Nelson Cruz (149 wRC+, .280 ISO) and Miguel Sano (124 wRC+, .308 ISO). The Twins are tied for the seventh best implied run line on the board tonight (4.8).
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Aaron Civale Better Than Everybody Else
This is a loaded pitching slate with six aces above a 28% strikeout rate. And yet still it’s not even close at the top with the way Gerrit Cole has been pitching. His 39.4% K rate on the season is already the highest in the league, and it just keeps going up. Since the All-Star Break he has a 44.4% K rate, and that is up to a completely unreal 55.6% K rate in his last four starts, which includes three straight games of 14+ K’s.
Price + Matchup
Is Tyler Beede a talented pitcher? Meh, not really. Does that matter? Meh, not really. So why should we even consider rostering Beede? Price + matchup. Beede draws one of the best matchups possible as he’ll toe the rubber against the Marlins at home at pitcher friendly Oracle Park. Miami has been atrocious offensively all season long with the league’s second worst wRC+ (76) against right-handed pitching and the sixth highest strikeout rate (25.2%). Furthermore, the salary savings Beede’s price tag offers is extremely valuable on this slate due to expensive hitting options (Coors, Arlington, Yankees) in good matchups.
Could Noah Syndergaard (27.9 K% last 30 days) make for a good GPP play against the Dodgers?
Noah Syndergaard, similar to Kershaw, has seen his strikeout rate increase (27.9%) and his estimators decline (3.49 SIERA, 3.39 FIP) over the last month, while his ERA has risen (5.00). A personal catcher request this week has been overblown by the media, but it’s very likely Wilson Ramos will be behind the plate again with the off day yesterday and lefty on the mound and MLB.com & Statcast’s Mike Petriello had an interesting tweet this morning that refuted some of the tandem’s poor results together. Syndergaard has allowed nine and four runs in starts against the Phillies and Cubs over the last month, but has also thrown at least six shutout innings against the Indians and Nationals over his last four starts as well. His 4.8% Barrels/BBE and 31.4% 95+ mph EV are both top three marks on the board tonight and his 3.16 DRA is 90 points better than his actual ERA which is the second largest negative DRA/ERA gap on the board. The Dodgers are no easy assignment (115 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP). However, Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball and wind blowing in from right field should counter some of the Dodger power, while the offense has a 77 wRC+ over the last week. Check the lineup to see if they’re resting any of their regular bats as the Dodgers have things pretty well wrapped up in the National League. If so, Thor at less than $9.5K is a high upside GPP play, though he’d understandably be more difficult to trust in cash games at this point.
Majority of Rockies’ lineup is priced affordably despite playing in Coors
On both major sites tonight, Rockies bats are pretty affordable despite what looks to be a good matchup in Coors. With the exception of Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, all Rockies hitters are priced under $4.5k on Draftkings and under $3.5k on Fanduel. The Rockies will get a matchup with Joey Lucchesi who has had a decent year with a 3.84 ERA / 4.35 xFIP / 4.50 SIERA , 1.19 WHIP and 10.4% SwStr. Lucchesi had a pretty wide platoon split, as he’s allowed a .325 xwOBA to righties but just a .259 xwOBA to lefties in his career. Unfortunately for Lucchesi, 6 of 8 batters in the Rockies’ order are righties. Nolan Arenado (141 wRC+, .286 ISO vs. LHP this year), Ian Desmond (128 wRC+, .304 ISO), Daniel Murphy (122 wRC+, .194 ISO), Charlie Blackmon (118 wRC+, .254 ISO), Trevor Story (115 wRC+, .212 ISO), Pat Valaika (40 wRC+, .138 ISO), Garrett Hampson (26 wRC+, .093 ISO) and Drew Butera (117 wRC+ in AAA this year) are all possible options in the Rockies’ projected lineup for tonight. Ian Desmond has been their hottest hitter over the last 2 weeks with a .413 xwOBA. The Rockies currently have a healthy 6.25 implied total vs. Lucchesi and the Padres.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy, Garrett Hampson
Giovanny Urshela (130 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP) projected to climb lineup due to injuries
Anthony Kay suddenly caught the walk bug after being traded to the Jays (13.8% in 36 AAA innings), while he had a rate below 9% through 97.2 prior AA & AAA innings this year. Strikeouts have been there and while he walked three in his major league debut, he also struck out eight of the 24 Rays he faced in his major league debut, despite just a 7.6 SwStr%. Kay is currently the fifth ranked prospect in the Toronto organization with a 45 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs with the expectation of a solid back end starter. Tonight will be his real initiation into the major leagues and particularly the AL East. The Yankees destroy LHP (119 wRC+ with a split high 20.5 HR/FB) and have actually been better on the road this season (123 wRC+, 19.8 HR/FB). Behind only the Coors participants tonight, there are three more teams between 6.1 and 6.2 implied runs tonight, a group that includes the Rays in Texas, the Astros facing another marginal lefty (Danny Duffy) and these Yankees. That Encarnacion and Sanchez went down with injuries against on Thursday only leaves room for Giovanny Urshela (130 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP), Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Luke Voit (130 wRC+, .211 ISO) in the top half of the order along with DJ LeMahieu (183 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Aaron Judge (189 wRC+, .295 ISO). Amazingly, only LeMahieu is above $4.6K on DraftKings, making this lineup an affordable stack tonight.
Other tagged players: Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Anthony Kay D-Backs are an interesting contrarian stack
Luis Castillo is a great pitcher, but since coming into the league he has always been much less effective in road starts, and that trend has continued in 2019. For his career, Castillo owns a 3.18 ERA / 3.20 xFIP with a 20.9% K-BB and .268 xwOBA allowed at home, compared to a 4.17 ERA / 3.92 xFIP with a 14.8% K-BB and .316 xwOBA allowed on the road. Alex Avila (.371 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Ketel Marte (.367), Christian Walker (.348), Eduardo Escobar (.320), Josh Rojas (.312), and Adam Jones (.306) are all good options in the D-Backs’ projected order. Castillo is more vulnerable vs. lefties (.312 xwOBA vs. LHB, .268 xwOBA vs. RHB in career) so Avila, Marte, Escobar and Rojas all get a bump here. With the exception of Marte ($5.3k) and Escobar ($4.4k) all D-Backs hitters are cheaper than $4k on Draftkings. On Fanduel, any D-Backs’ hitters besides Marte and Escobar are available for under $3k. The D-Backs currently have a 4.25 implied line and figure to see extremely low ownership on this slate; they are a contrarian GPP option only.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker, Josh Rojas, Adam Jones Max Scherzer has a 32.5 K%, .242 xwOBA since IL return, was up to 98 pitches last time out
It’s probably safe to say that Max Scherzer is back to form. He struck out nine of 22 Braves last time out, allowing just two hits (including a solo HR) and has a 32.5 K% and .242 xwOBA since his return that are in line with his season numbers. The only concern is about workload, but he’s increased his pitch count in each outing since coming back from the IL, up to 98 last time out. The matchup is not ideal, seeing an above average Atlanta offense (103 wRC+, 17.1 HR/FB vs RHP) for a second straight outing, but these divisional opponents have seen each other often over the last half decade and Scherzer seems to have no problem with familiarity. There’s also quite a few strikeouts in this Atlanta lineup (23.1% vs RHP, 29.9% last seven days). The great thing here though, is if Scherzer continues his upward pitch count ascent, he should be in line for his normal workload tonight at a reduced price. Gerrit Cole has a 55.6 K% over the last month with a 23.3 SwStr% that would be the 11th highest strikeout rate on the board for the season and is in a great spot against the Royals. Scherzer may be in the higher strikeout upside spot though and is $800 to $1.8K cheaper on either site, potentially making him not only the better value, but possibly one of the top overall values at a reduced rate tonight.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole Consider attacking a regressing Mike Soroka (.363 xwOBA last 30 days)
Mike Soroka has been regressing with a 4.11 ERA over the last in line with his season SIERA, but he’s also been a bit worse. Strikeouts are down (under 20% for the season now), his ground ball rate has been below 48% in seven of his last nine starts (still 52.4% on the year) and he has a .363 xwOBA over the last 30 days (61 points higher than actual results) with 37.9% 95+ mph EV now. He’s allowed five HRs over his last two starts and faces Washington for a second straight outing. The only thing that’s remained consistent is his excellent control (5.6 BB%). For the season, RHBs have been grounded by Soroka (.234 wOBA, .273 xwOBA, 57.1 GB%), but LHBs have had some success (.321 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 46.9 GB%). The Nationals have a 4.48 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board, but there seems to be some contrarian upside in attacking Soroka with quality LHBs at this point. This makes Adam Eaton (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP) a solid value at the top of the lineup and Juan Soto (162 wRC+, 324 ISO) just a great overall choice. Asdrubal Cabrera (96 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Matt Adams (91 wRC+, .250 ISO) would be additional reasonably priced options with decent lineup spots.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Adams, Mike Soroka Gerrit Cole has a 51.5% K-BB and 0.75 xFIP over the past 30 days
That is not a typo. Cole has been insanely good this season with a 2.73 ERA, 2.51 xFIP and 2.67 SIERA, 39.4% K Rate compared to just a 6% BB rate, 0.92 WHIP, 41% GB rate and 16.6% SwStr. Cole has somehow been much better over the past 30 days, posting a 1.95 ERA, 0.75 xFIP and 1.38 SIERA, 55.6% K Rate compared to a 4% BB Rate and a 0.58 WHIP. He is averaging a ridiculous 39.66 Draftkings PPG and 63.5 Fanduel PPG over the past month. Cole gets a matchup with the Royals tonight in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium who have just a 25th ranked .296 xwOBA vs. RHP since the trade deadline. They also have just an 86 wRC+ and 22% K Rate vs. RHP on the year. The Royals currently have just a 2.86 implied total and the Astros are -360 favorites to win, so Cole has a good shot at a ‘W’. Despite the dominance over the past month, Cole has seen his price stay right at $12k throughout the past month on both major sites. There are a decent amount of dirt cheap value arms on this slate, making it even easier to roster Cole tonight.
Dylan Covey is dirt cheap on both major sites in a good matchup
Dylan Covey’s 2019 stats are certainly not the reason you’d roster him tonight, as he has a 7.69 ERA / 5.61 xFIP / 5.61 SIERA with a 5.4% K-BB, 1.69 WHIP and 7.3% SwStr. For whatever it’s worth, he does have a 2.82 ERA / 4.02 xFIP over 51 innings in AAA this year, including his last 3 starts from 8/22 – 9/2 where he allowed just 3 runs and 3 walks over 17 and 2/3 innings. The reason he is an intriguing play tonight is his price and matchup. Covey will face the Mariners, who have a league-worst .257 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching since the trade deadline. That is the worst mark of any team by .016 points. The Mariners also have an awful 27.1% K rate since the deadline. Covey also gets a park upgrade, going from Guaranteed Rate Field to spacious and pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Covey is just $5500 on Fanduel and an even cheaper $4000 on Draftkings and projects as one of the best PTS/$ arms on the slate. Pairing Covey with an ace and/or stacking Coors or another expensive stack is certainly an option on this slate for GPPs.