DFS Alerts

Power Hitting Offense Could Be In For Big Night Against Young Pitcher

Brock Burke has put up good surface numbers in his first four major league starts, with a 3.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but digging a bit deeper there are signs of trouble with only a 12.6% K% and a 5.49 SIERA. Tonight Burke takes on an Oakland offense that is getting a major park upgrade and that ranks 4th in wOBA and 6th in ISO over the past 30 days, and ranks 5th in ISO against left-handed pitching this season. I’ll be targeting the power hitters at the top of the Oakland lineup for GPPs, specifically Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Mark Canha.

Justin Verlander (29.9 K-BB%) is very difficult to fade tonight

Justin Verlander is the highest priced pitcher on the board by $2K on either site with only one other pitcher above $9K and he doesn’t even have a quality matchup (A’s 106 wRC+, 12.4 K-BB% vs RHP), but he’s also a really difficult fade tonight. Verlander has a 29.9 K-BB%, 3.00 SIERA and .246 xwOBA that nobody on the board even comes close to. Never mind runs, he’s allowed just 14 hits over his last five starts, The other high priced option on the slate is a fine pitcher in Patrick Corbin, but he may have the worst matchup on the board facing the Twins (126 wRC+ vs LHP) and some serious weather concerns. From there, we’re looking at Kyle Gibson, Julio Teheran and Homer Bailey, who’s facing Verlander in the mid-price range. It seems like the best option is to bite the bullet and pay the $12K to roster Verlander and then on DraftKings, try to differentiate with some of the lower priced arms with some upside in risky situations.

Each of the first five batters in the Dodger lineup are above a .210 ISO vs RHP this year

Dylan Bundy has been a competent contact manager this season. No…really. He’s allowed 28 HRs in 27 starts and still has a 17.9 HR/FB that’s above average in a power friendly park, but his 30.8% 95+ mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE are both better than average and his .313 xwOBA is 27 points better than actual results and in line with a 4.53 SIERA that’s better than his 5.06 ERA. It still may not be enough against a Dodger lineup that terrorizes RHP (115 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 18 HR/FB). It’s not just Cody Bellinger (168 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP) and Joc Pederson (136 wRC+, .318 ISO) either. Matt Beaty (138 wRC+, .241 ISO) moves into the two slot here and looks to be the value play in this lineup. In fact, each of the first five batters in the order are above a .210 ISO vs RHP this year. The Dodgers are the top projected offense on this slate (6.11 runs). Gavin Lux has just a .312 wOBA vs RHP thus far, but a .403 xwOBA and costs within $600 of $3K on either site.

Clay Buchholz has allowed the highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board (12.2%)

Clay Buchholz has an 8.7 SwStr% that suggests a few more strikeouts (1.4 K/SwStr), but in either case, he’s been hit fairly hard (12.2% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board). His .365 xwOBA is three points below Drew Smyly for the worst mark on the board as well with an ERA (5.31) and estimators all above five. He’s catching his old team at a good time. The Red Sox were shut down in Toronto last night and have just a team 41 wRC+ with a 10.7 HR/FB over the last seven days, but a 111 wRC+ and 11.6 K-BB% vs RHP this year. The Red Sox (5.67) are the lowest of four teams above 5.5 implied runs tonight. Potential backers may consider that recent frustrations could cause lower ownership rates tonight, but it’s another strong spot. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Buchholz this year. The Sox will rest, arguably, their best bat against RHP tonight (Rafael Devers), though that will also move a very affordable Brock Holt (125 wRC+, .131 ISO, .338 xwOBA vs RHP) into the second spot, making a stack with Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .256 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (148 wRC+, .252 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (106 wRC+, .190 ISO) more affordable for those betting on some positive regression.

The Spot For Value

Tampa is filled with cheap right-handed bats heading into Texas tonight. Kolby Allard is a good young pitcher, and I wouldn’t call any of these Rays must plays, but at some point, we will need some savings tonight. So far, Allard has struck out just 19.8% of righties and even in the disappointing season for Jesus Aguilar, he still has a 39% hard hit rate and average 22% K against lefties. First base is not as loaded up top as some other positions, so this is a spot I’d be OK looking to value.

The Only Option

The pitching is rough tonight, but we have one clear ace up top that separates himself from the field. The salary on Justin Verlander is also way above the field, but at least in cash games, it’s overthinking it not to take the best player on this slate. Verlander has a 34.9% K rate on the season, up to a cartoonish 41.1% K rate since the All-Star Break. He has double digit strikeouts in 8 of his last 10 starts and even on those rare occasions when he’s not striking everybody out, he can pile up innings with easy fly ball outs. You can always make a case to fade a high owned, high priced player in tournaments, but he has the highest floor and ceiling on this slate by a wide margin.

Top Plays of the Night

I love the Red Sox as my top offense to target on this Thursday slate. They get to face a former teammate in Clay Buchholz, a low strikeout righty with an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP over five this season. Power bats are elite plays against him, and I’ll side with Devers as my favorite hitter on the slate. He owns a team-best .408 wOBA and .276 ISO against RHP for the year, and the power potential is certainly there. Fire him up in any format with confidence, and you can gladly roll some Boston GPP stacks, too.

Risk/Reward GPP Appeal

If you are looking for a cheaper risk/reward arm tonight, give Allard a look in GPP formats. I like the way he is growing into his role as a solid MLB arm, and he has allowed just three total runs over his last three starts. The strikeouts haven’t quite been there yet, but I expect him to progress in that department. The Rays are actually a reasonably solid matchup for a LHP, and Allard is definitely on my SP2 radar tonight.

Clear-Cut Ace

The seven game evening slate offers next to nothing for pitching options, making Verlander the clear top arm on the slate. I do start to worry at this point about Houston limiting his innings down the stretch, but we have yet to get wind of that happening. Verlander still owns a sparkling 2.52 ERA, 35% strikeout rate, and sub-5% walk rate for the year. His floor and ceiling are much higher than any other pitcher on the slate. Find a way to get him in there.

NYY-DET postponed due to inclement weather Wednesday

The game between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers on Friday evening has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Thursday, September 12 at 1:00 pm ET as part of a traditional, single-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Wednesday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.

LHBs hav ea .385 wOBA and 47.2 Hard% against Glenn Sparkman

The Chicago White Sox don’t contain a lot of firepower in their lineup, but a matchup with Glenn Sparkman may be too much to pass up. Aside from having just a 13% strikeout rate, Sparkman has allowed the highest aEV on the board (90.6 mph), which has led to a .362 xwOBA, which is tied for the worst mark on the board. While batters from either side of the plate have at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him, LHBs have really punished him with a .385 wOBA, .374 xwOBA and 47.2 Hard%. This pushes the White Sox up to a 5.6 implied run line that’s currently seventh best on the board. Yoan Moncada (149 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP) is the lone elite LHB in the lineup, but consider Tim Anderson (133 wRC+, .188 ISO), Jose Abreu (100 wRC+, .221 ISO) and Eloy Jimenez (105 wRC+, .238 ISO) from the right side as well. Zack Collins (75 wRC+, .167 ISO) is a cheap Catcher eligible bat, who had a 140 wRC+ at AAA.

Side With The Matchup

We’ve got two aces close together with Stephen Strasburg and Sonny Gray. Strasburg is the better overall pitcher here, but they have very similar strikeout ability and Gray comes with the better matchup and a bit of a savings. The strikeouts have remained steadily in the 30% range for Gray and he has thrown over 100 pitches in four of his last five starts, giving him some added cushion. The control is always a bit of a wildcard, but the added edge from the high strikeouts in the Mariners lineup outweighs that risk here.

Ariel Jurado allows the hardest contact on the board (10.4% Barrels/BBE, 43.3% 95+ mph EV)

Ariel Jurado is tied for the highest xwOBA on the board (.362) and is one of only two pitchers tonight above a .400 mark over the last 30 days (.437 – Cole Hamels .432). His 10.4% Barrels/BBE is also the worst, while his 43.3% 95+ mph EV is tied for worst as well with Antonio Senzatela. Yup, the guys pitching in Texas and Colorado tonight allow the hardest contact. Wonder how that’s gonna work out? While Jurado has a sizeable wOBA split this year (37 points) batters from either side are above .330 and xwOBA suggests no split at all (.362-.363). However, RHBs have a ground ball rate 14 points higher than LHBs against him though. Austin Meadows (155 wRC+, .283 ISO) is one of the top batters on the board tonight. Ji-Man Choi (118 wRC+, .181 ISO) costs $4K on DK/$2.9K on FD is one of the top values in a great hitting environment. The Rays have the second highest implied run line outside Coors tonight (5.65).

Stephen Strasburg tops the slate in DRA (2.14) and xwOBA (.262) by wide margins

While the 3.50 ERA is unspectacular, Stephen Strasburg leads the board with a 2.14 ERA. Nobody else is even below three. And his .262 xwOBA is best on the board by 19 points. His 23.4 K-BB% also leads the slate. It’s not an ideal matchup in Minnesota (Twins 113 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 16.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but it’s expected to be a cooler night with wind blowing in and the Twins are still expected to be without Max Kepler tonight. Strasburg has recorded seventh inning outs in 15 of his 29 starts this year. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board, but still likely the top overall arm with other high priced pitchers like Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack and Robbie Ray containing some upside, while not coming close to Strasburg’s workload. He should be worth the pay up for those who care to make the effort to afford him tonight.

Robbie Ray (10.2%) & Steven Matz (9.1%) are both bottom three on the board in Barrels/BBE

The game in New York tonight will feature two southpaws against two offenses who have done a lot of damage to LHPs this year. Both Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have been above average pitchers with an ERA right around four, but both are also among the bottom three on the board in terms of Barrels/BBE.

Over his last four starts, Ray has walked 16.7% of batters and while his strikeout rate has remained consistent at 30.6%, it does so with a drop in SwStr to 11% over that span. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Ray has also been merely average vs RHBs this year (.328 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). The projected lineup for the Mets features five RHBs above a 125 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP this year: Amed Rosario (131 wRC+, .213 ISO), Pete Alonso (151 wRC+, .366 ISO), J.D. Davis (131 wRC+, .205 ISO), Wilson Ramos (159 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Todd Frazier (128 wRC+, .231 ISO). More interestingly, Alonso is the only one above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel.

Steven Matz has been quite a bit better recently and perhaps doesn’t deserve to be attacked that hard. He has a 2.17 ERA and .258 xwOBA over the last month, though a SIERA two runs higher over that span and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected lineup for the Diamondbacks does not contain a single left-handed bat and while Matz has allowed just a .314 wOBA to RHBs with a supporting .312 xwOBA, 18 of his 23 HRs have been surrendered to batters from that side. The Arizona projected lineup features five batters above a 140 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws this season: Ketel Marte (146 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .277 ISO), Wilmer Flores (147 wRC+, .315 ISO), Nick Ahmed (144 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Carson Kelly (193 wRC+, .333 ISO). Weather and umpire may also lean towards boosting offense in a normally very negative run environment, as premium subscribers can confirm. With both teams implied for just 4.25 runs tonight, this could be a sneaky spot for offense.