DFS Alerts

Still The Best Spot

You have to have a short memory in MLB DFS, as the Cardinals are right back to being the top spot after a rough Tuesday. There is a stronger lean to their left-handed bats tonight against Antonio Senzatela which puts Dexter Fowler at the top of the board for cash games and St. Louis stacks. Senzatela is a low strikeout, high walk pitcher to lefties which gives Fowler lots of on base and run scoring upside tonight.

Pablo Lopez has estimators lower than his ERA & large home/road splits (.256 xwOBA at home)

Pablo Lopez has a 4.75 ERA that’s more than a half run above all estimators due to 66.9 LOB%. His .305 xwOBA supports the estimators as well. The real difference though is in Lopez’s home/road splits. Miami might be the most negative run environment in baseball, but a nearly five run split in his ERA and over .100 points of wOBA is insane. His FIP carries a near four run difference and his xFIP, which normalizes HR rates is even over a run lower at home. Lopez has a .256 xwOBA at home this season that’s tied for the second best mark on the board. He has a 20.1 K-BB% in Miami this year as opposed to 14% on the road and has allowed just two of his 12 HRs here despite facing 37 more batters. Now that we’ve gotten all that established, let’s get to the matchup. The Brewers have a 17.6 HR/FB vs RHP with Mike Moustakas expected back in the lineup tonight. That’s where the good news ends. The Brewers also have a 25 K% with just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP and if the Marlins didn’t do enough damage to Christian Yelich, Miami has broken him again. Moustakas for Yelich hardly seems like a fair trade and provides about as significant a boost to the pitcher as a single bat omission can. Lopez costs a very reasonable $7.1 K on FanDuel (a bit more on DraftKings – $8.4K) in what now seems like a fairly favorable spot with quite a bit of upside.

Trent Thornton has allowed 12 ERs over his last four innings against Boston

Trent Thornton has pitched to a 3.86 ERA over the last month, but has had an unearned run scored against him in each of his last three starts and his estimators are still right around five, in line with his season ERA (5.23) and estimators. In fact, his .336 xwOBA over the last 30 days is exactly the same as his season mark. His last two starts against the Red Sox have resulted in 12 ERs over just four innings, striking out a single one of the 32 batters he’s faced. This seems a get right spot for a Boston offense with a 66 wRC+ over the last seven days. Their 5.63 implied run line is fifth best on the board tonight, despite the expected absence of Mookie Betts. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Thornton this year with the latter showing no split at all (one point difference). Andrew Benintendi (106 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) is projected to lead off at a reasonable cost on either site ($4K DK, $3K FD), but if Jackie Bradley Jr. (97 wRC+, .226 ISO) gets that spot, he could be even more interesting. He has the highest wRC+ of all projected Boston batters over the last seven days (150). Rafael Devers (149 wRC+, .279 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (149 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (128 wRC+, .286 ISO) are the only other expected starters above a .200 ISO against RHP this year. J.D. Martinez has been a rather average bat against same-handed pitching this year (108 wRC+, .192 ISO).

Taking Advantage of Opportunity

The Brewers have won five games in a row, but it will be difficult to get over the emotional hurdle of losing Christian Yelich for the rest of the season. It leaves a gaping hole in their lineup, and I don’t expect the offense to be nearly the same down the stretch. Enter Pablo Lopez. He checks in as a great cost-controlled pitching option on this slate, with reasonable strikeout upside and just four total walks allowed in his last six starts. Fire him up as an affordable way to allow you to spend up on bats tonight.

Elite Spot for Production

The Cardinals disappointed at Coors Field last night, but they will have a good chance to put that in the rear view mirror with a favorable matchup against Senzatela tonight. The Colorado starter has an ERA over seven an ugly advanced metrics this year, and he doesn’t miss any bats. He got shelled for six runs in 1 2/3 innings in a start at Busch Stadium against these same Redbirds two weeks ago. Lean toward the power bats here with lower strikeout risk, which puts DeJong and Ozuna at the top of my list. Dexter Fowler is also a solid play at the top of the order. There’s tons of GPP stack upside.

Logan Forsythe (intercostal) scratched Tuesday; Isiah Kiner-Falefa replaces

Forsythe has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to left intercostal tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Forsythe’s vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Rangers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough at home this evening.

Zach Pleasac and Jose Suarez both have an xwOBA above .400 last 30 days

Jose Suarez has stopped missing bats (11.6 K% last 31.1 innings) and has the highest xwOBA on the board over the last month (.408). Zach Plesac, incidentally, has the second highest (.402) in the other dugout tonight. On the season, RHBs have now punished him for a .419 wOBA with Statcast only marginally better (.376 xwOBA). The Tribe are the lowest of nine teams above five implied runs tonight (5.05) and they might be getting short changed in this spot. This projected lineup boasts four RHBs above a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP this year, led by Carlos Santana (159 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Jordan Luplow (168 wRC+, .345 ISO). Roberto Perez (116 wRC+, .243 ISO) is an interesting punt Catcher play and Franmil Reyes (116 wRC+, .233 ISO) is generally all or nothing. Although it’s their worse split, Francisco Lindor (108 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Yasiel Puig (92 wRC+, .158 ISO) are certainly viable in this spot too.

Justin Turner scratched Tuesday; Gavin Lux replaces

Turner has been scratched from the Los Angeles Dodgers original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Tuesday’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gavin Lux, who will now play second base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Dodgers batting order but, most notably, bumps Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez up to third and fifth, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Los Angeles faces off against left-hander Ty Blach on the road this evening.

Mitch Keller has a 27.9 K% with a completely unsustainable .469 BABIP

Mitch Keller left his last start after just five batters when he was struck by a line drive. Through 33 major league innings, he has an 8.18 ERA that doesn’t nearly tell the entire story. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP are all below four and he’s struck out 27.9% of the batters he’s faced with a 20.3 K-BB%. How in the world does someone strike out that many batters and allow that many runs? He must be getting destroyed on contact. Although his 88.9 mph aEV is a bit high, his .311 xwOBA is 97 points better than his actual results. A .469 BABIP and 53.6 LOB% can’t possibly be sustained. There’s some massive positive regression coming for Keller and he’s in a great spot to realize it tonight. The Giants have a 77 wRC+ with an 8.9 HR/FB at home and an 83 wRC+ with a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Over the last week, the team has just a 56 wRC+. Keller costs $8.8K on DraftKings, where he still has upside, but only $6.1K on FanDuel. Of course, he’s only completed six innings once, but he’s exceeded 90 pitches in five straight before being knocked out of his last start early. Any increase in efficiency should be able to get him through six.

Site Specific Values

Pitching is tricky tonight with the obvious high end ace Walker Buehler being tough to fit in, as well as likely being on a somewhat limited pitch count. There is a big mid-range of interesting options, headlined by Trevor Bauer, but on FD/Yahoo, we can keep the upside intact at a significant savings with Mitch Keller. Keller comes with similar question marks to Bauer, but though he’s young and unproven, his 20 strikeouts in his last 12 innings show the upside. Add in a trip to San Francisco and I am considering Keller in all formats at his low salary.

Powerful Offense Gets Park Upgrade Tonight

The Atlanta Braves offense ranks 6th in ISO and 7th in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season, and tonight the team takes on Jason Vargas, who has put up worse numbers (4.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP) since being traded from the Mets to Philadelphia. Part of the that could be due to Vargas now pitching in Citizens Bank Park, where the game will take place tonight in a park upgrade for the Braves. I’ll be targeting the top of the Atlanta order in GPPs, particularly Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson.

Pitcher Draws High-Strikeout Matchup Tonight

The White Sox have been an offense to target with right-handed pitchers all season, with the team ranking 3rd in K% and 27th in wOBA against righties on the year. Tonight the beneficiary is Jakob Junis, who normally goes overlooked with his pedestrian 4.94 ERA (4.58 SIERA) and 21.3 K%, but his plus matchup tonight makes him a consideration in GPPs, particularly at a price substantially lower than the top pitchers on the slate.

Miami's the spot to look for cheap GPP pitching (both teams 25 K% vs RHP)

Miami is a fantastic spot to look for cheap GPP pitching tonight. Chase Anderson has is a marginal or even below average arm with a 13 K-BB%, 13.8 HR/FB, 36.8 GB%, 4.58 ERA, 4.80 SIERA, 4.90 DRA and .323 xwOBA. Nothing at all sticks out about him and to further complicate matters, he hasn’t exceed 20 batters in four starts, completing five innings just once. However, he has just the type of profile that would benefit most from the park bump here and the matchup is the real appeal here, possibly the best park adjusted one on the board. The Marlins have a team 76 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP. While the workload makes him a more difficult roster on FanDuel, a $6K price tag on DraftKings makes him a nice complement to a higher priced arm.

Elieser Hernandez has similar below average estimators (4.65 SIERA, 5.29 DRA) with a 5.23 ERA, but there’s also some upside here. His 14.6 K-BB% is actually better than Anderson’s and despite the 18.4 HR/FB and 9.5% Barrels/BBE, Hernandez has generated an 85.6 mph aEV with a .306 xwOBA that’s 50 points below his actual results. He too, has just a 34.6 GB%, which will lead to more Barrels, but the park should help him out probably a bit more than it has. While the Brewers certainly have far more power than the Marlins, they strike out just as often vs RHP (25%), while Hernandez costs $400 more than Anderson on DraftKings and has completed six innings in four of his last six starts.

Projected Altanta lineup with five batters at or above a .250 ISO vs LHP this year

Jason Vargas’s tenure in Philadelphia hasn’t been very efficient so far. He’s sporting a 4.93 ERA and it’s not even really the contact that’s worsened with the park downgrade. He still has a 4.62 FIP that’s right in line with his season rate, allowing just four HRs in seven starts. His .305 xwOBA over the last 30 days is 42 points less than actual results and seven points lower than his season xwOBA. It’s been the strikeout rate that has actually plummeted all the way down to 13.9%. This is an incredibly dangerous spot for Vargas with a 37.9 GB%. The projected lineup for the Braves features six batters above a 115 wRC+ and five with a .250 ISO or above vs LHP this year. In small samples, Adam Duvall (194 wRC+, .407 ISO, .399 xwOBA) and Austin Riley (167 wRC+, .455 ISO, .439 xwOBA) have destroyed southpaws. Each costs exactly $4K on DraftKings and $2.5K or less on FanDuel. Affordable compliments to a powerful top half of the lineup, likely containing Ronald Acuna (131 wRC+, .281 ISO), Ozzie Albies (175 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (123 wRC+, .250 ISO). All three are above a 130 wRC+ and 45% hard hit rate over the last week. The Braves are currently seventh on the board at 5.31 implied runs tonight.

Don't Overthink It

A pitcher as bad as Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors Field gives me a chance to use my favorite term – Don’t Overthink It. Gonzalez not only has the lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher on this slate, but he has also walked more batters than he’s struck out. Paul Goldschmidt and the other righties in the middle of this lineup should see plenty of RBI opportunities, and with Goldschmidt’s 49% hard hits and 26% line drives, he should have all kinds of fun in this altitude.