DFS Alerts
Uninspiring Numbers In Small Sample
The third base position is absolutely loaded on Friday night but I keep finding myself coming back to Vladimir Guerrero because of his accessible price tag. Guerrero and the Blue Jays will travel to Seattle to square off against Justus Sheffield and despite the unfavorable park shift this is still a tremendous power spot for the Blue Jays youngster. Vlad’s numbers against left-handed pitching (84 wRC+; .151 ISO) have been uninspiring this season but I fully expect those numbers to beef up as the sample size grows.
Go Back Here Tonight
The Rays were just OK as chalk on Thursday night, but they get an even better matchup tonight for their right-handed bats in Baltimore, and the salaries remain low. Baltimore’s Ty Blach has been horrendous this season, but even going back to last year, there was nothing more here than low strikeouts with a moderate ground ball lean. Travis d’Arnaud leads the Rays with a .274 ISO and 44% fly ball rate, and is a top option at the catcher position, and even playable on FD as a C/1B at this salary.
Everything Lines Up Here
There is no flaw to be found anywhere in Alex Bregman’s skill set. He doesn’t strike out, he takes walks, he hits the ball hard and in the air, and he bats in the middle of one of the top lineups in the league. Tonight the Astros face lefty Jose Suarez who has struck out just 18.3% of righties while allowing a .278 ISO on 46% hard hits. There are going to be balls flying all over the ballpark tonight with Bregman right in the middle of the action.
Veteran Starter Looks to Continue Strong Season
Lance Lynn has put together an excellent season with a 3.60 ERA (3.90 SIERA) and 27.1 K%, despite pitching half of his games in a difficult home park for pitchers. Tonight he is on the road in Chicago, taking on a White Sox offense that ranks 3rd in the league in K% against right-handed pitching, giving him enhanced strikeout upside. Lynn and the Rangers are solid -140 favorites in this game, giving Lynn a strong shot at a win and quality start as well.
Elite Upside At A Discount
If salary is no issue, I would side with Jacob deGrom up top in cash games. But Jack Flaherty gives you the same upside at a lower salary in an easier matchup. Since the All-Star Break, Flaherty’s 33.1% K rate has surpassed deGrom’s as the highest on this slate, and he’s also shown deGrom-like ability to pitch deep into games, going seven full innings in five of his last eight starts. His per batter upside has always been ace-level and now that he’s showing the innings to match, he looks underpriced.
Offense Gets Park Upgrade Against Struggling Pitching Staff
The Tampa Bay offense gets a major park upgrade tonight in Baltimore, and facing Ty Blach and his 18 HR allowed in 109 innings across AAA and the majors this season, the Rays have a 6+ implied run total that is the highest on the slate. I’ll be targeting the top of the Rays lineup in this matchup, specifically Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Travis d’Arnaud, and Jesus Aguilar.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Jesus Aguilar, Travis d'Arnaud Jacob deGrom has the best xwOBA (.238) and FIP (1.91) on the board last 30 days
Jacob deGrom is the clear top pitcher on the slate. If you couldn’t tell that by price tag (he’s the only pitcher to reach $11K and only pitcher to be above $10K on both sites), he tops the board in the following key categories: strikeout rate (31.1%), SIERA (3.44), xFIP (3.32), FIP (2.80), DRA (2.44), Z-Contact (79.9%) and xwOBA (.263) along with xwOBA (.238) and FIP (1.91) over the last 30 days. He’s also failed to complete seven innings in just two of his last eight starts. While he does face a formidable offense (Braves 103 wRC+, 16.9 HR/FB vs RHP), he does so in an extremely negative run environment. Conditions have bumped Citi Field up to a near neutral park over the last few days, but cooler temperatures should turn the park back into the standard pitcher’s asset it usually is. Despite being the most expensive pitcher on the board, deGrom may still be one of the better values too.
Vince Velasquez has upside (25.3 K%) in a great spot (Marlins 75 wRC+ vs RHP) at a low price
Vince Velasquez is an inconsistent starter, who combines hard contact (board high 11.4% Barrels/BBE) with some strikeouts (25.3 K%). That upside is a bit capped though, because since moving back to the rotation in June, he’s only completed six innings once. As a result, he’s has a strikeout total above six only twice in that span. That said, we really can’t ignore the tremendous matchup and significant park upgrade tonight. The Marlins own a 75 wRC+ with an 18.6 K-BB% and 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP. The lack of power in the Miami lineup along with the big park, should help to negate Velasquez’s Barrels problem and the price tag below $8K offers value despite workload limitations. While he hasn’t completed six more than once over this 10 start span, he’s finished at least five innings in five straight starts. A quick note on the other side of this matchup. Miami is usually a pitching or nothing endeavor for DFS purposes, but the second highest Barrels/BBE mark belongs to Hector Noesi (11.1%), who’s allowed at least five runs with exactly two HRs and three walks in each of his three starts. No other pitcher on the late is above 9.6% Barrels/BBE.
Other tagged players: Hector Noesi Mitch Keller (28.2 K% at AAA) will face a lineup absent quality left-handed bats
Mitch Keller has yet to find his footing through five major league starts (8.86 ERA). The peripherals aren’t terrible though (13.4 K-BB%, 4.34 FIP) and while he’s been hit fairly hard, his .350 xwOBA is still 64 points better than actual. He has struck out 28.2% of AAA batters in 19 starts and is a highly regarded prospect (Top 50 via Fangraphs with a 55 Future Value grade). The interesting thing here is the matchup. In a negative run environment that suppresses RH power, he’ll face a Cincinnati offense with just an 88 wRC+ and 15.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year, but it might be even worse than that. With Jesse Winker joining Joey Votto on the IL, the projected lineup for the Reds shows only Josh VanMeter, Freddy Galvis, Tucker Barnhart and Brian O’Grady from the left-hand side. This should be a really nice spot for a cheap pitcher ($6.6K on either site), who has yet to reach the upside he’s shown in the minors.
Tommy Pham has a 169 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year
It’s tough to imagine that a pitcher who’s worn out his welcome in San Francisco can succeed in Baltimore and while Tyler Blach has struck out 10 of his first 45 batters (Red Sox & Yankees too) for the Orioles, he’s also allowed 12 runs. To be honest, he’s faced strong offenses in all four his major league appearances this year, but even so, allowing 22 runs in 15.1 innings with just three more strikeouts than walks, is completely unacceptable for a major league pitcher. This, despite allowing just 5.2% Barrels/BBE. His AAA numbers aren’t much better with an ERA and estimators above five in over 90 innings. Over the last calendar year, batters from either side of the plate have hit him well (above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Rays get a nice park upgrade here against a pitching staff that has already owns the single season record for home runs allowed. Tommy Pham, destroyer of southpaws, (169 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be one of the top overall bats on the board tonight. Travis D’arnaud (123 wRC+, .271 ISO) costs less than $3K on Fanduel. Austin Meadows (101 wRC+, .228 ISO) merits serious consideration too despite the lefty on lefty matchup. The Rays are one of only two offenses above six implied runs tonight (6.26).
Other tagged players: Travis d'Arnaud, Austin Meadows, Ty Blach Eloy Jimenez (hip) scratched Thursday; Adam Engel replaces
Jimenez has been scratched from the Chicago White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Thursday’s matchup against the Texas Rangers due to mild hip soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Adam Engel, who will now play right field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the White Sox batting order but, most notably, bumps James McCann all the way up to fifth, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Chicago faces off against right-hander Ariel Jurado at home this evening.
As reported by: Scott Merkin via Twitter Other tagged players: Adam Engel
Rangers have a 117 wRC+ vs LHP since the All Star break
Ross Detwiler has the lowest strikeout rate (14.4%) and highest HR/FB (31.8) on the board. As a result, his 7.33 FIP is more than a run and a half higher than the second worst pitcher tonight. He’s allowed 11% Barrels/BBE with a .386 xwOBA despite a 56.3 GB% that’s best on the board. Accepted wisdom for most the season has been that the Rangers are terrible vs LHP (91 wRC+, 26.1 K%). However, since the All Star break, their 117 wRC+ is ninth best in the majors against southpaws with just a 20.8 K%. The Rangers are expected to line up predominantly right-handed tonight and for good reason. Batters from that side of the plate own a .425 wOBA against Detwiler this year. Hunter Pence (150 wRC+, .326 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Danny Santana (114 wRC+, .255 ISO) are big reasons for Texas’s turn around against lefties. Delino DeShields (109 wRC+, .178 ISO) should be a FanDuel ($2.7K) bargain out of the leadoff spot. Both the Rangers and White Sox are tied at 5.25 implied runs, the fifth best mark on the board.
Other tagged players: Danny Santana, Delino DeShields, Ross Detwiler Yoan Moncada (142 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) returns in a strong spot
Ariel Jurado has the highest Hard-Soft (30.2%), DRA (6.51), 95+ mph EV (43.2%) and xwOBA over the last 30 days (.393) on the slate. None of those are good things. He does have the second lowest strikeout rate (16.4%), but that’s not a very good thing either. However, the White Sox have an 81 wRC+ and 20.1 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Not the kind of offense you’re in a rush to stack. In fact, only two batters in tonight’s lineup have a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP over the last calendar year. The good news for potential Chicago backers tonight is that one of them, Tim Anderson (105 wRC+, .178 ISO) bats second tonight and costs a very reasonable $3.1K on FanDuel. Even better, Yoan Moncada (142 wRC+, .230 ISO). Jose Abreu (89 wRC+, .200 ISO) has a 170 wRC+ and 59.1 Hard% over the last week. Eloy Jimenez (97 wRC+, .230 ISO) has power potential. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Jurado over the last 12 months, RHBs (.355 wOBA, .363 xwOBA) have actually been slightly better than lefties. The White Sox are tied for the fifth highest implied run line on the board (5.25).
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Ariel Jurado Gerrit Cole (.202 xwOBA last 30 days) should dominate Detroit (73 wRC+, 26.7 K% vs RHP)
With Max Scherzer making only his second start since the All-Star break without a minor league rehab and facing a contact prone offense in Pittsburgh, Gerrit Cole is pretty clearly the top overall arm on tonight’s slate. He owns the top strikeout rate on the slate (36.8%), while his 2.87 ERA matches his SIERA (2.94) and DRA (2.96). His .202 xwOBA over the last month is best on the board as well. The opposition (the Tigers) have a 73 wRC+, 26.7 K% and 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP, all of which are split worsts tonight too. While Cole costs $12K on either site, that hardly seems enough in this tremendous matchup. It’s difficult to find any other $10K pitcher who comes anywhere close to his potential tonight.
Richie Martin scratched Thursday; Jace Peterson replaces
Martin has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jace Peterson, who will now play second base and slot directly into Martin’s vacated ninth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Orioles lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough at home this evening.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko via Twitter Other tagged players: Jace Peterson