DFS Alerts
German Marquez has a 32.5 K% over the last 30 days
German Marquez has been pitching well with an increase in strikeouts over the last month (32.5%), giving him a 19.8 K-BB% on the season. He has a 3.48 ERA with a 2.90 SIERA and .292 xwOBA over the last month. He still has the highest aEV on the board (90.2%) with a 4.71 ERA a run above estimators because, well, Coors, but his 2.85 ERA is nearly two runs lower. While 14 of his 27 HRs have actually been allowed on the road, his ERA is cut in half (3.52 vs 6.26) with a wOBA against nearly 100 points lower (.265 vs .356) away from Coors. St Louis is a negative run environment and significantly power suppressing park. That can change during the hot summer months, but conditions tonight do not appear particularly warm with a nearly neutral wind situation. In other words, this is a pretty massive park upgrade for a pitcher who has recently begun pitching as he did in a dominant second half of 2018. The Cardinals may be finally healthy, but are still struggling with the bats and have just an 86 wRC+, 23.2 K% and 12.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year to go along with an 11 HR/FB at home. Marquez may be nearly adequately priced on DraftKings ($10.6K), but could be a bargain for nearly $2K less on FanDuel ($8.8K).
All The Power
The Rays travel to Baltimore to face the extreme fly balls of Asher Wojciechowski in a power friendly ballpark. We still don’t know exactly where Wojo’s strikeout ability is, but it’s been far lower to lefties at just 20.8%, while his 56% fly balls and average hard contact has led to a .357 ISO to LHB. Austin Meadows leads the charge for Tampa with his .250 ISO, .391 wOBA and 43% hard hits.
Intriguing GPP Game Stack
The Rangers and White Sox are often inconsistent offensively, because they are two teams that often kill their own rallies with strikeouts. However, I like this game from a GPP full stack perspective tonight, as we have two underwhelming arms in Jurado and Detwiler. I will prioritize power bats on both sides, with the White Sox offering an interesting combination. Guys like Jimenez and Moncada have great power upside, and I like Skole as a cheap value bat on this slate.
Other tagged players: Matt Skole, Yoan Moncada
Time To Bust Out After Two Disappointing Games
Houston has largely disappointed from an offensive standpoint so far in this series, but they should break out against one of the league’s worst hurlers in Jordan Zimmermann. All of his metrics are bad, and the squared up contact he is allowing is off the charts. Six of Houston’s regulars have elite numbers against all types of pitchers for the year, so you really can’t go wrong here. I will opt for the stability of Bregman and Springer as my favorite cash game plays, with the power upside of Alvarez being a very intriguing target in GPP formats.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Yordan Alvarez King of the Mound
The decision for my top arm of the night isn’t even close. Despite the presence of Scherzer, Syndergaard, and other top pitchers tonight, Cole is the guy you want to prioritize. Scherzer is just coming off a stint on the IL, and Cole has an otherworldly matchup against a Tigers team that is flat out abysmal against RHP this year. They also strike out at one of the highest clips. Throw them against Cole’s 2.94 SIERA, 2.82 xFIP, and nearly 37% strikeout rate, and you have all the makings of a historical type of performance.
Decreasing Ks, increasing HRs (seven over last four starts) for Asher Wojciechowski
Boy, those strikeouts sure disappeared on Asher Wojciechowksi in a hurry. He had at least six strikeouts with a total of eight walks through his first five starts, but has not exceeded five in any of his last four starts with exactly three walks in each. The one thing that has remained a constant is the hard contact though. He’s allowed a HR in eight of his nine starts overall and seven over this last four outings. In fairness, he has faced the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros in his last three starts, but while the Rays aren’t in that class, it’s still another formidable offense in a power friendly park. If Asher is only going to miss bats at a league average rate with a 24.4 GB%, there are going to be problems in this park. His 14.5% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board by a significant margin. LHBs have a .368 wOBA and .372 xwOBA against him this season. Austin Meadows (136 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Ji-Man Choi (128 wRC+, .195 ISO) should be strong plays in the top half of this lineup. Kevin Kiermaier (98 wRC+, .242 ISO) could be another name to look at depending on where he appears in the lineup. The Rays are a top three offense tonight at 5.96 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Asher Wojciechowski, Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier Ryan Yarbrough has raised his strikeout rate nearly four points over two starts
Ryan Yarbrough actually pushes fairly deep into starts, facing at least 26 batters in five of seven this season. He’s been completely dominant over his last two starts (15 IP – 6 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 18 K – 51 BF). His strikeout rate has risen from 17.8% to 21.7% after those two starts against Detroit and Seattle. Yarbrough has walked just 13 batters all year (3.2%) and also owns the lost aEV (84.2 mph) and 95+ mph EV (25.9%) on the slate. If he can sustain even a league average strikeout rate, he’s going to be a thing. While he experiences a park downgrade on the trip to Baltimore, it’s a high quality matchup once again for him, as the Orioles have an 18.9 K-BB% and 10.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year. Additionally, they also have a board low 3.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Yarbrough costs about $9K on either site.
Elite Matchup, Better Salary
Gerrit Cole is at the head of the table tonight, but Mike Soroka has a similarly strong matchup and comes at a significant savings. Soroka is nowhere near Cole’s level in strikeout ability, but the heavily right-handed Marlins lineup does help his upside, where his strikeout rate is a more respectable 23.5%. He has also piled up a 59% ground ball rate with just an .053 ISO allowed to righties and with virtually no power in the Miami lineup, he has a clear path to an easy quality start.
The Best, Even If Limited
There is a little bit of a question mark surrounding Gerrit Cole tonight after missing a couple weeks with a sore hamstring. But this matchup is so good that it’s tough to pass on his elite skills, particularly on DK/FDRFT, where it’s easier to find an SP2 to pair him with for salary relief. Cole’s 36.8% K rate is the highest of any starter in the league and he’s facing a Detroit team with a roster that ranks 28th in ISO and 30th in wOBA with the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. Even if his outing is somewhat limited, his floor and his ceiling are still the highest on this slate with the ideal matchup.
Nationals hammer LHP (109 wRC+) and are the hottest team on the board (160 wRC+ last seven days)
This is not a bad spot for lefty starter Steven Brault in terms of environment or conditions (Pittsburgh is generally a negative run environment that suppresses RH power). However, he brings the second highest walk rate on the slate (11%) with a .356 xwOBA at home since last year to face a team that not only hammers southpaws (109 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 15.5 HR/FB), but is also the hottest offense in the land (160 wRC+, 3.2 K-BB%, 18.7 HR/FB last seven days). The Nationals are the lowest of seven teams above five implied runs (5.07) on a nine game slate. Anthony Rendon (150 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is obviously the primary batter you want against Brault (RHBs .340 wOBA, .337 xwOBA last calendar year). However, both Howie Kendrick (130 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Kurt Suzuki (166 wRC+, .271 ISO) are less than $3K on FanDuel. Every player in the Washington projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs LHP over the last 12 months, while each of the batters with more than 10 PAs over the last week have at least a 130 wRC+ over that span.
Other tagged players: Howie Kendrick, Kurt Suzuki, Steven Brault Atlanta lineup features four above a .270 ISO vs LHP last calendar year
Caleb Smith has been dominant at times this year (29.1 K%), but he’s also benefited from his home ballpark with a 28.5 GB% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. In fact, 14 of his 21 HRs have been surrendered in just 54.2 road innings this year. This is a dangerous spot for him against an Atlanta lineup featuring four batters above a .270 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Ronald Acuna (157 wRC+, .292 ISO), Ozzie Albies (172 wRC+, .277 ISO), Josh Donaldson (134 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Adam Duvall (84 wRC+, .273 ISO) might be considered a contrarian approach as Smith may not want to attack, despite a healthy 5.57 implied run line. Another benefit is that he hasn’t gone beyond five innings in five straight starts. That leaves a depleted Miami bullpen with a 7.06 FIP over the last 30 days to pick up the slack.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson, Adam Duvall, Caleb Smith Dangerous conditions (wind out to CF) for contact prone (14.3 K%) Adam Plutko (29.8 GB%)
Adam Plutko is a contact prone (14.2 K%), extreme fly ball pitcher (29.8 GB%), which is not a terrible thing to be at Citi Field as a decent contact manager (29.7% 95+ mph EV), but a warm, humid night with winds blowing out to center between 10-15 mph tonight, makes this a much more dangerous spot. With his fly ball lean, batters from either side of the plate are above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last 12 months. Three Met bats have been very strong hitters with power against RHP over the last calendar year. Pete Alonso (150 wRC+, .313 ISO), Michael Conforto (144 wRC+, .282 ISO) and J.D. Davis (130 wRC+, .198 ISO) are the bats to own here, while Amed Rosario (93 wRC+, .134 ISO) has been red hot out of the leadoff spot as well (264 wRC+, 52 Hard% last seven days). The Mets find themselves in the middle of the board tonight at 5.16 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Pete Alonso, Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, Adam Plutko I Keep Wanting To Call Him Logano
Logan Morrison is back in our lives, and while he’s $4,100 on DraftKings, he’s only $2,100 on FanDuel. We can play multiple first basemen on FanDuel, so he’s really interesting as a value option on this slate. Since the start of 2018, he has a .204 ISO with a 49.7% fly ball rate and a 40.8% hard-hit rate. Porcello has a .202 ISO with a 47% fly ball rate and a 33.5% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. We have the opportunity to have hard hit fly balls at a cheap price tag.
Value Play That Makes Everything Work
The Astros are a top stack on this slate, and with Correa banged up, Jack Mayfield should draw another start. He’s been very decent in a small sample against lefties, and he’s really cheap on all sites. Instead of punting catcher tonight, I’m looking at Mayfield as my cheapo play on this slate. Norris has a .352 wOBA with a .201 ISO and a 20.3% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season.
Mike Montgomery has allowed just two ERs with 22 Ks over his last three starts
Mike Montgomery might be a must own on DraftKings tonight where he’s just $4.2K. Getting the worst part of it out of the way, he has some of the worst Statcast numbers on the board with a .374 xwOBA and 45.8% 95+ mph EV. Kevin’s forecast also calls for friendly hitting conditions in a tough park. However, he has been much better since being traded and established in a starting role. He has not allowed an ER over his last two starts against the Tigers (11 Ks), but also the Mets (3 Ks). He struck out seven Red Sox three starts back too with just two ERs. His numbers have vastly improved over the last month (3.81 SIERA, 3.40 FIP) and he’s in a fine spot against a Baltimore offense with a 19.3 K-BB% and 10 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year. The projected lineup for Baltimore tonight includes just three batters above a .170 ISO and only one below a 21.6 K% vs LHP this year. Considering the upside at the top end of the spectrum tonight, a Montgomery/$10K+ pitcher combination might be too much to pass up tonight.