DFS Alerts
If Salary Matters
Clayton Kershaw’s trip to Miami makes him the top pitcher on tonight’s slate, and if you can afford him in cash games, fantastic. But there is very little difference in skills between Kershaw and Aaron Nola, and we get an extreme discount on Nola due to a tougher matchup. But the matchup is only different in safety, not upside, as the Cubs against righties have the same strikeout rate as the Marlins against lefties. Yes, I prefer Kershaw, but there is more points per dollar upside with Nola, and I need this extra salary.
Lead Off Savings
When a leadoff batter with strong skills against a poor pitcher comes at a discount, it is too good to pass up. That’s what we have tonight with Jesse Winker against Joe Ross. In his limited time this season, Ross has struck out just 15% of lefties, with 17.5% walks and no ability to control batted balls when he does throw strikes. Winker has the plate skills for on base upside, along with plenty of power from his 43% hard hits and 27% line drives. He’s an easy play in cash games and viable in tournaments as well.
Pitcher Could Be Overlooked as He Continues Strong Season
It is still tough to adjust to Lance Lynn being priced with or above Chris Sale and some of the other top pitchers in the game, but Lynn has earned it by putting up a 3.60 ERA with a 10.34 K/9 on the season, with an even better 3.26 ERA and 12.47 K/9 since the All-Star Break. Tonight Lynn takes on a Blue Jays offense that ranks 8th in K% and 23rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching on the year, and Lynn and the Rangers are -135 favorites in the game. Lynn could be overlooked with some other top pitchers in play, making him an ideal target for GPPs.
Potent Lineup Looks to Continue Terrorizing Pitching Staff
The Orioles have had the worst pitching staff in the majors this season with a 5.99 ERA and 2.11 HR/9, but they have been horrific over the past 7 days, allowing a 10.62 ERA and 3.69 HR/9. I don’t expect the Baltimore pitching staff can be that bad for the rest of the season, but it is emblematic of both a starting staff and a bullpen that are overtaxed and short on major league talent to begin with. The Yankees are very strong -300 favorites in this game and have a 6.4 implied run total that is the highest on the slate. Every Yankees player that makes the lineup is in play, and I’ll be targeting the top and heart of the order – DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giovanny Urshela, Gleyber Torres, and Gary Sanchez.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres Pivot Off The Chalk
Dustin May has sure put a damper on my Fried love today, but I still really like his price point for this matchup. He has a 3.38 xFIP with a 23.7% strikeout rate and a 54% ground ball rate this season. The Mets lineup looks scary on paper, but they don’t have a ton of fly ball hitters in this lineup. It’s not a lock and load type of spot with May, but I do think he is a good tournament pivot. I worry about Alonso and Frazier here, but they both have really high strikeout rates against left-handed pitching.
Finally Past The Injuries?
Jake Lamb is nowhere near where he was a couple of seasons ago, and a lot of that has to do with injuries. He’s certainly looked a lot better recently and draws a really good matchup in Coors tonight. With his struggles, he’s priced under $3,000 on FanDuel tonight. Jon Gray has a .354 wOBA with a .182 ISO and a 32.1% hard to soft contact ratio against left-handed hitters this season. I really like the price point and the fact he’s on the road, which could lead to an extra at bat in the ninth.
Great Spot To Target
With Kershaw getting moved back a day, Trevor May becomes one of the best, if not the best value pitcher on the slate. He’s shown really good stuff in the Minors this season and has been really good against righties in his two Major League starts. This lineup features seven righties, and the only left-handed hitter in Diaz. The projected starting lineup has a .124 ISO with a .297 wOBA and a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Second Tier Price, First Tier Skills
Jack Flaherty is priced a rung below the aces tonight, but his skill are in line with the top pitchers. Since the beginning of July, he has a 33.3% K rate and he has also been pitching deep into games, with seven full innings in four of his last six starts. The matchup is decent in a good pitchers park against a Royals team with minimal left-handed power to worry him. His 34% K rate to righties offsets the best hitters in the Kansas City lineup, and I’m comfortable using him in all formats tonight.
Pick An Ace, Any Ace
There is not much separating all these aces tonight, but when factoring in salary and matchup, Matt Boyd gets my nod. The Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching and Boyd has been steadily above 30% K all season. He had his worst start of the season last week, but prior to that, had 8+ strikeouts in seven consecutive starts. His strikeout ability plus the strikeouts in the Mariners lineup give him a high floor and ceiling, good for all formats tonight.
HOU-CHW postponed due to inclement weather Monday
The game between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox on Monday evening has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Tuesday, August 13 at 4:40 pm EST as part of a traditional single-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Monday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the Chicago White Sox via Twitter
Zach Plesac owns a 3.13 ERA two runs below estimators and a reverse split
Zach Plesac struck out seven Rangers last time out, allowing as many hits plus walks without allowing a single run. He still sits on estimators two runs above a 3.13 ERA, including a 6.04 DRA. A .332 xwOBA is not terrible, but still 29 points worse than his actual mark. This may be a more favorable spot than a 5.25 implied run line squarely in the middle of the board may project for the Red Sox. Plesac has shown a substantial reverse split thus far with same-handed batters having a .326 wOBA, but .345 xwOBA when facing him this year. That makes this spot appear strongest for Mookie Betts (147 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), J.D. Martinez (113 wRC+, .174 ISO), and Xander Boearts (147 wRC+, .245 ISO). While it has been a bit of a struggle for Martinez against righties, perhaps he’s coming out of it, with a 264 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Zach Plesac
Reds' rookies have been smashing (Aristides Aquino seven HRs in 34 PAs)
Erick Fedde shut out the Giants through six innings last time out in San Franciscon and keeps the ball on round (51.3%), but his overall numbers are awful (2.8 K-BB%, 5.64 SIERA, 5.67 DRA, .371 xwOBA). He’s one of two starters on the slate above .400 xwOBA last 30 days and the other has thrown a total of six innings in the majors this year. The Reds are below average vs LHP (90 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB%), but this lineup looks a bit different since the deadline and has been crushing the ball over the last week (31.4 HR/FB, 35.5 Hard-Soft%). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 xwOBA against Fedde over the last 12 months. Aside from Jesse Winker (145 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Eugenio Suarez (110 wRC+, .235 ISO), the Reds have a couple of red hot rookies in the middle of tonight’s projected lineup in Josh VanMeter (165 wRC+, .250 ISO, 62.2 Hard% vs LHP) and Aristedes Aquino has homered seven times in his first 34 plate appearances. With the majority of the board above five implied runs tonight, the Reds find themselves right in the middle at 5.25, but offer some affordable offense with upside.
Other tagged players: Josh VanMeter, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Erick Fedde Loss of Soto puts Anthony DeSclafani in a more favorable spot (RHBs .261 wOBA against him this year)
The highest strikeout rate on the slate for the season and over the last month (not including openers) belongs to Antony DeSclafani, at just 24.7% and 26.8% tonight. While rostering him can be a concern in a power friendly park due to is great difficulties with LH power, the Nationals lack that to start off with and it got even worse yesterday when Juan Soto went down. Tonight’s projected lineup for the Nats features just three lefties and just one above a .154 ISO vs RHP this year. While DeSclafani has an ERA with estimators around four over the last month, he complements that with a .277 xwOBA via Statcast. RHBs have just a .261 wOBA and 22.7 K-BB% against him this year. DeSclafani is not cheap, but is only the fourth of fifth most expensive pitcher on either site with the betting line moving in his favor tonight.
The Top Spend Based on Position
There are five standout expensive bats in Coors Field tonight – Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story. Among them, Story is the one with the least competition at his position. No other shortstop touches his upside, so if I can only spend on one of these bats in cash games, this is where I’ll start. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly is a below average strikeout pitcher who has been allowing tons of runs with hard contact and his slight ground ball lean is not enough to overcome the 43% fly balls and hard hits from Story.
Complete Nonsense
This is one of the worst pitching slates we’ve ever had, and it would get even worse if Zack Grienke gets rained out. The pricing is tough on DK/FDRFT, where decent pitchers like Anthony Desclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez and Joey Lucchesi are priced near ace level. I am viewing this is a ‘win it with the bats’ slate, and am willing to take minimum salary pitchers on limited pitch counts and just be happy with any positive points I can get. Brock Stewart and Austin Pruitt are both being called the primary pitchers for their respective teams. Neither is great, and neither is likely to throw more than 3-4 innings, but they are both facing high strikeout opponents and they cost nothing. I don’t have a strong lean to one or the other, so I will be mixing and matching in my lineups tonight.
Other tagged players: Brock Stewart