DFS Alerts
Ty Blach (career 5.2 K-BB%) will be serving up longballs to Yankees in the nightcap
Ty Blach drew the short straw for the Astros and has been chosen the pitcher to serve HRs up to the Yankees tonight. Since being acquired from San Francisco, where he had a career 5.2 K-BB% in 305.2 innings, he struck out four of 12 batters faced in his only outing at AAA, but also allowed six base runners. He’s allowed 10 ERs (2 HRs) in 6.1 innings at the major league level this year, striking out just three of 36 Mets and Dodgers. His 34.5 GB% was 15 points below his career average. While there has not yet been a run total set for this game due to the delay in starting assignment announcements, it would be fairly surprising if the Yankees were not at the top of the board, considering their 7.64 implied run line in game one. Of course, wait for lineup confirmation later this afternoon, but with his absence in first game, Aaron Judge’s presence in the lineup is likely a sure thing. Both he (172 wRC+, .263 ISO, 64.7 Hard%) and DJ LeMahieu (164 wRC+, .259 ISO) have reigned down destruction on southpaws over the last calendar year, while Giovanny Urshela (131 wRC+, .263 ISO) remains red hot (.351 wRC+ last seven days). RHBs have just a league average .326 wOBA against Blach over the last calendar year, but with a 50.9 Hard%. Blach owns a career 9.5 HR/FB, but that should be taken with a grain of salt pitching in San Francisco.
Other tagged players: Ty Blach, Gio Urshela, DJ LeMahieu
Salary To Spare = Don't Overthink It
Because the pitching is so rough tonight, I am focusing my salary cap on the bats, which begins with Coors Field, certainly in cash games. The Rockies Peter Lambert has struck out just 17.5% of lefties, while allowing a .286 ISO on 48% hard hits with no ground ball ability. The switch hitting duo of Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar lead the way here with Marte striking out just 13.9% of the time against lefties and carrying a .223 ISO and .398 wOBA on 44% hard hits.
Affordable Upside
Pitching is a disaster tonight, especially if we can’t use Zack Greinke due to the weather. On FD/Yahoo, the mid-tier value with some upside is San Diego’s Joey Lucchesi. His 23.4% K rate and 7.7% BB are not outstanding, but are near the top of this slate. He’s at home facing a Tampa team that loses it’s DH and is one of the higher strikeout teams in the league against lefties. He is the cash game play for me on FD/Yahoo even if Greinke is cleared, and is tournament playable even on DK/FDRFT.
Jacob DeGrom has 2.22 ERA / 1.72 FIP and 27.5% K-BB in day starts at home since ‘17
Though not as dominant as his 2018, it’s been another great year for Jacob DeGrom. So far, he’s posted a 2.77 ERA / 3.29 xFIP / 3.38 SIERA with a 31.5% K Rate, 6.1% BB rate, 0.94 HR/9 and 15.5% SwStr. DeGrom gets a matchup at home this afternoon vs. the Nationals, who have just a 93 wRC+ and 21.7% K rate vs. RHP this year. The Nationals do have an improved 103 wRC+ over the past 30 days. DeGrom performs better in home starts and also performs a bit better in day games as opposed to night games. Putting the two together, he has posted a 2.22 ERA, 1.72 FIP, 35.3% K rate, 7.9% BB rate and .243 wOBA allowed over 56 2/3 innings in day starts at home since 2017. DeGrom has also been very good historically vs. the Nationals, posting a 2.02 ERA / 2.24 FIP and 28.1% K-BB versus them since 2017 over 66 2/3 innings. He will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in DJ Reyburn calling balls and strikes today. The Nationals have just a 3.29 implied total, 2nd lowest on the main slate.
Leury Garcia scratched Sunday; Adam Engel replaces
Garcia has been scratched from the Chicago White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Sunday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Adam Engel, who will now play center field and slot into ninth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the White Sox batting order but, most notably, Tim Anderson all the way up to second, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Chicago faces off against right-hander Chris Bassitt at home this afternoon.
As reported by: the Chicago White Sox via Twitter Other tagged players: Adam Engel
Yanks are red-hot, get nice matchup vs. Thornton
So far in 2019 Trent Thornton has posted a 5.55 ERA with a 5.11 xFIP, 4.99 SIERA, 11.9% K-BB, 41% FB rate, 1.57 HR/9 and a 10% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s allowed a .337 xwOBA with a 7.7% barrel rate and 88 MPH aEV. Not completely terrible stats, but certainly no match for a Yankees lineup that was already firing on all cylinders (143 wRC+ over the past 14 days) and has now returned Gary Sanchez to the lineup. Gio Urshela (.395 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aaron Judge (.394), Gary Sanchez (.379), DJ Lemahieu (.363), Gleyber Torres (.340) and Brett Gardner (.321) are all great options in the Yankee lineup this afternoon. Urshela has been scorching hot over the past 2 weeks with a .568 xwOBA; Austin Romine (.450), DJ LeMahieu (.444) and Mike Tauchman (.396) have also swung the bat very well of late. Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are both great values at a price of just $4.4k on Draftkings. Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner are available under $5k on DK as well, while Austin Romine is just $3.9k. The Yankees currently have a 6.28 implied total; they could be chalky on this slate but are a good play in both cash and GPPS nonetheless.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Mike Tauchman, Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Trent Thornton Luis Castillo could be overlooked vs. Cubs
Though there are other more obvious and safer SP plays on the main slate, Luis Castillo warrants some consideration in GPPs this afternoon. Castillo is in the midst of a great season where he’s posted a 2.63 ERA, 3.56 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA with a 29.5% K rate, 10.8% BB rate, 55.8% GB rate, 16.4% SwStr and just a 0.99 HR/9. He’s been really been locked in over the past 30 days, posting a 2.72 xFIP, 26.2% K-BB and a ridiculous 21.2% SwStr. Castillo’s start this afternoon vs. the Cubs will be at home, where he’s been a completely different pitcher: since 2017, Castillo owns a 2.96 ERA / 3.20 xFIP with a 21% K-BB and .265 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 4.05 ERA / 4.04 xFIP, 13.9% K-BB and .322 xwOBA allowed in away starts. Over that time frame, he also has a 2.33 ERA and 27.3% K rate vs. divisional opponents in home starts over 112 innings pitched. Also working in Castillo’s favor is a pitcher-friendly umpire in Angel Hernandez. The Cubs do have a good lineup that has posted a 105 wRC+ vs. RHP this year, but Castillo has the stuff to shut them down and has looked especially locked in of late. He also has the home split working in his favor this afternoon and projects to see decently low ownership. The Cubs currently have a 4.5 implied line that feels a bit generous.
Cheap Power In Perceived Poor Matchup
Lucas Giolito has predominantly turned it around this year to a significant degree, but we’ve seen several starts where he’s completely susceptible to surrender 3+ home runs. Oakland one-offs such as Olson & Chapman seem interesting for GPP if people will not be inclined to target Giolito. Khris Davis has been a shell of himself for the past two months, but at $3400 on DraftKings, it’s not crazy to take a shot on him today. The 5-man stack is cheap (less than $20k total), although with Oakland only having a 4.8 implied run total on a slate with many high total games, I’m more willing to use their bats as one-offs or 3-mans at best.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
Justin Verlander has 45% K rate, 2.15 SIERA and .195 xwOBA over past 30 days
Justin Verlander has just about reached must-play territory whenever he takes the mound. He’s been nearly unhittable over the past 30 days, posting a 39.8% K-BB, 1.45 ERA, 2.29 xFIP, 2.15 SIERA and just a .195 xwOBA allowed with a 0.87 HR/9 and 15.7% SwStr. Overall, Verlander has posted a 2.68 ERA / 3.43 xFIP / 3.13 SIERA with a 28.7% K-BB, 0.81 WHIP and 15.7% SwStr. Verlander does have a career worst HR/9 (1.66) and hard contact rate (40.8%) but it obviously hasn’t been a problem for him. Verlander faces the Orioles this afternoon, who have an 86 wRC+ and 22.8% K rate vs. right-handed pitching this year. The Astros are -460 favorites this afternoon, so Verlander has a great shot at getting the ‘W’. The Orioles have just 2.8 implied runs, lowest on the slate. Verlander is above $12k on both major sites this afternoon, but should be well worth his price in all contests.
Astros have 7.28 implied total vs. Wojciechowski this afternoon after scoring 23 last night
Wojcieshowski is certainly not a good pitcher, but he has shown improvements this year with a 28.8% K rate and 4.21 SIERA. However, Vegas is clearing not buying it as the Astros currently have a ridiculous 7.28 implied total. Projection systems are not buying Wojciechowski’s recent improvements either, as most systems have him as a roughly 6 ERA guy going forward. The Astros are red-hot right now on offense; they scored 23 runs last night and have a 165 wRC+ over the past 14 days. Yordan Alvarez (.431 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), George Springer (.393), Michael Brantley (.378), Alex Bregman (.374), Carlos Correa (.369), Yuli Gurriel (.324) and Jose Altuve (.317) are all great options. Yordan Alavrez has an insane .579 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks and has been by-far the hottest Astro hitter. Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa also have xwOBAs over .400 over the past 2 weeks. The Astros project to see plenty of plate appearances versus an Oriole’s bullpen that is terrible (2nd worst 4.65 SIERA on the year) and also has been stretched pretty thin over the past few days. There currently is not another team within a run of the Astros’ 7.28 implied total.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Yulieski Gurriel German Marquez has a 3.14 xFIP and 24.1% K-BB despite 6.51 ERA over past 30 days
German Marquez has largely been a bit of a disappointment this year, at least when looking at his 4.82 ERA. He hasn’t been as bad as that number suggests though, as he’s also posted a 3.53 xFIP, 3.84 SIERA, 49.8% GB rate, 23.9% K rate and 4.7% BB rate, 12.9% SwStr and a .320 xwOBA allowed while pitching half his games in Coors. Marquez gets a huge park upgrade this afternoon, going from Coors to pitcher-friendly Petco to face the Padres. The Padres have a 92 wRC+ and ugly 26.2% K rate vs. RHP this year, though they do have an improved 106 wRC+ over the past 30 days. The projected lineup has just 3 batters who have an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. RHP this year. Since 2017, Marquez has a 3.50 ERA / 3.76 xFIP with a 24% K rate and 1.11 WHIP in road games. He’s priced at just $8.7k on Draftkings and $8.1k on Fanduel for this matchup. The Padres currently have a 4.25 implied line vs. Marquez and the Rockies.
Cheap Leadoff Hitter With Platoon Advantage
Chris Owings – leadoff hitter for the Boston Red Sox. Never did I expect that in the year 2019, but here we are. He’s cheap, in a great ballpark and lineup spot, and the game environment doesn’t get much better. Patrick Sandoval is a lefty too, so he’ll hold the platoon advantage. Owings isn’t a great hitter and he should be chalky (meaning I’m okay being underweight in GPPs), but he makes for a strong cash game play here as a salary saver.
A Changed Man?
I feel like this is the biggest dilemma on the slate. If you look at Folty’s full season numbers, they are ugly: an average 20.1 K%, an inflated 2.51 HR/9 ratio and a career-high 42.6% Hard Hit rate. Not good. But if you look at his Triple-A stats during his demotion, he went 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA, an 8.29 K/9 ratio and didn’t allow a homer. In his last start during his return to the Majors, he was very solid against the Twins, striking out seven over 5.1 innings (he did allow two homers). I am not going to declare that Folty is suddenly 100% back, but the stats from Triple-A and his increased usage of the slider from his last start are noteworthy. I think given the matchup against the Marlins and their low 3.6 implied team total, we have to give Folty consideration in all formats as our SP1. The Marlins rank 6th in K% against righties and while they can be pesty, this is still the team with the lowest team ISO and wRC+ in the Majors. I plan to be overweight on Folty in GPPs and I do think he should be your SP2 on two-pitcher sites at the very least.
Value SP2
It has been a rough year for Foltynewicz, but he could be ready to turn a corner. His minor league numbers looked better, and his slider usage was up in his first start back in the big leagues. His stuff looked solid in that start, and he struck out seven over 5 1/3 innings. That was a tough matchup against the Twins, too. Things obviously look a lot better today with the feeble Marlins on tap. The slate doesn’t offer much for value arms, and Folty is my preferred SP2 choice in multi-pitcher formats.
If Lefty Mashers Existed, They'd Look Like This Guy
The Cardinals stack is interesting given their 5.4 implied team total, but Steven Brault has actually been decent at limiting power this season. The stack also loses some of its appeal with Marcell Ozuna and Paul Dejong actually being better against right-handed pitching. I’m most interested in Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Martinez here as a mini-stack. At the very least, Goldy is on my radar as a cash game play too at his price point. Goldy has a .254 ISO and a 123 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, while Martinez leads the team with a .302 ISO and a 173 wRC+ against lefties. I consider Goldy a strong play in all formats given the price and matchup.