DFS Alerts
Jack Flaherty has a 31.4 K% last 30 days and a .270 xwOBA, 23 K-BB% at home since last season
Jack Flaherty has struck out 31.4% of the batters he’s faced over the last month and generally pitches very well at home (.270 xwOBA, 23 K-BB% since the start of 2018). While the Cubs don’t present an often favorable matchup (103 wRC+, 9.5 BB%, 18.4 HR/FB vs RHP), St Louis is generally a fairly negative run environment and Flaherty is coming off a great start, striking out nine of 22 Astros. The Cubs are also one of the coldest offense on the board with just a team 57 wRC+ and 27.2 K% over the last week. Flaherty’s faced the Cubs three times this season, but only once at home, striking out eight of 19. As he’s improved, the Cardinals are now pushing Flaherty further in games. He’s completed six innings in only 10 of his 21 starts this year, but that includes seven of his 11 home starts. Flaherty has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (27.6%) and costs less around $8.5K on either site.
Tyler O'Neill scratched Thursday; Tommy Edman replaces
O’Neill has been scratched from the St.Louis Cardinals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Chicago Cubs due to a presently specified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tommy Edman, who will play third base and slot into the leadoff spot in the order, which slides Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, and Paul Goldschmidt down to second, third, and fourth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Cardinals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Jon Lester at home this evening.
As reported by: the St. Louis Cardinals via Twitter Other tagged players: Tommy Edman
Tommy Pham (133 wRC+ vs RHP last 12 months) is in a strong spot facing reverse split RHP
Andrew Cashner is coming off his best of three starts for the Red Sox, against the Yankees (6.2 IP – 3 ER – 1 BB – 6 K) after struggling against the Blue Jays and Orioles (11 IP – 9 ER – 4 HR). A .275 BABIP may not hold up at Fenway. It’s a tougher park than Camden and though he’s generated exactly half his contact on the ground, 42.2% of his contact has been above a 95 mph EV with just a 17% strikeout rate. Cashner has shown a significant reverse split over the last 12 months (RHBs .368 wOBA/.389 xwOBA), which really favors Tommy Pham (133 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). However, there are a number of very affordable bats in the Tampa Bay lineup, who may have great value in this spot, such as leadoff man Ji-Man Choi (136 wRC+, .206 ISO), costing less than $3K on FanDuel and a very reasonable $4K on DraftKings. The Rays are one of just three teams above five implied runs tonight (5.07).
Other tagged players: Ji-Man Choi, Andrew Cashner Asher Wojciechowski has struck out at least six in all five starts
Asher Wojciechowski has a stunning 31.1 K% across five starts with just a 6.7 BB% for a 24.4 K-BB% that he’s never come close to in the minors. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed just two runs in 14.1 innings with 16 strikeouts against quality, contact prone offenses in the Red Sox and Angels. He’s struck out at least six in each of his starts, while a 30.6 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board. There has been a bit of a problem when he’s allowed contact (12.5% Barrels/BBE, 43.1% 95+ mph EV, 29.2 GB%), which still only works out to a .287 xwOBA with such elite peripherals, but those are going to remain necessary unless he finds a way to manage contact in a better way. The Blue Jays have been hitting the ball well (126 wRC+, 21.9 HR/FB last seven days), but have just an 87 wRC+ with a 24.3 K% on the year vs RHP. What this means, is that Wojciechowski is potentially one of the top values on a short board, especially for just $7.1K on DraftKings. Whether sustainable or not, we generally don’t see a 30% strikeout rate in that price range. However, LHBs do own a .384 wOBA/.357 xwOBA against him this season. There’s certainly some merit towards looking at Cavan Biggio (113 wRC+, .246 ISO, 51.3 Hard% vs RHP) and Justin Smoak (129 wRC+, .261 ISO, 47.6 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year), each at a reasonable cost of $4.2K on DraftKings and above $1K less on FanDuel in a power friendly environment. Further in Wojciechowski’s favor is some reverse line movement towards Baltimore in this game.
The Lineup For Savings
Offense is fairly well spread out tonight, and I don’t see much in the way of must spends. I prefer to build my lineup tonight by starting with an ace pitcher and then working from the bottom up with the bats. The Cardinals are loaded with right-handed bats against an average pitcher in Jon Lester and most of them are very affordable across the industry. The standout for me is Jose Martinez with his huge .333 ISO and .475 wOBA against lefties this season. He has struck out just 12.7% of the time and hits the ball hard from the top of the lineup.
Strong Matchup, Weak Position
Second base is the toughest position to fill tonight, but we’ve got one solid mid-tier value that works in all formats. The Reds’ Anthony Desclafani has significant splits with a .265 ISO and .398 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters. Ozzie Albies has a prime lineup spot in between Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman, and he has contact ability with hard hits and line drives. He even kicks in some added upside with stolen base ability and can fill the board in every category.
Solid RHBs with Upside
Yes, this is a little bit of a homer alert. However, since I won a GPP with a Cardinals stack last week, I figured I have a little leeway to be a homer a time or two as the season winds down. This is a big game as the rubber match of the series between the Cubs and Cardinals, who are currently tied for first place in the NL Central. I like the way the middle of the St. Louis order lines up against Jon Lester. While Lester has been better this season, he’s still a hittable, low strikeout pitcher. In the month of July, Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .308 with a .434 wOBA and .418 ISO. He has made a career out of smashing LHP and is a great option here, while the likes of DeJong and Martinez also offer some power upside against lefties. Martinez has the benefit of being very cheap everywhere, too. This is a sneaky GPP stack that will also allow you to fit some high-end pitching into your lineup.
Other tagged players: Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez
Two On Top
There is a very clear top tier at pitcher tonight with Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has perked up with the strikeouts recently and I love the matchup, but I still have to side with the continued dominance of Gerrit Cole as the top pitcher tonight. His 37.3% K rate is the highest of any starter in the league and he’s been piling up innings on top of that with seven full innings in five of his last six starts. He has 12 double digit strikeout games this season and he has the skills to put up huge games against any opponent.
Taking Advantage of Extreme Splits
This matchup is simply too good to ignore. While Anthony DeSclafani is a solid pitcher with some skills, he has one major flaw — he still can’t get lefties out. The splits are extreme, as he has held RHBs to a .242 wOBA this year, while lefties have posted a massive .385 mark. Lefties make hard contact at a 48% clip against the Cincinnati starter, too. Oh, and his ground ball rate is 18% lower against lefties. Basically, LHBs smack him around on a consistent basis. Enter Freeman, who has a 52% hard contact rate and .412 wOBA against RHP this year. It’s a graet matchup for the Atlanta slugger, and he is my favorite bat on the slate. You can certainly throw in other lefties like Albies, McCann, and Inciarte to make a GPP stack, too.
Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies Two Elite Arms
I don’t have a strong take between Cole and Kershaw tonight. I will likely lean toward Cole in cash games because he seems to be a better bet to pitch deeper into games at this point. However, I also expect Cole to have higher ownership, making the pivot to Kershaw a very interesting one in GPP formats. Kershaw has looked much better over his last few starts, with a 42/7 K/BB ratio over his last 32 innings to go along with a 1.44 ERA this month. He has allowed two or fewer runs in four straight starts, and one of those came against the same free swinging Padres team that he faces tonight. While Kershaw is no longer the league’s best pitcher, he’s looking like an ace again. You really can’t go wrong with either choice at the top this evening.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole Alex Dickerson scratched Wednesday; Austin Slater replaces
Dickerson has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Wednesday’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Austin Slater, who will now play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Giants batting order but, most notably, bumps Mike Yastrzemski all the way up to second, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as San Francisco faces off against right-hander Vince Velasquez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Maria I. Guardado via Twitter Other tagged players: Austin Slater Zach Plesac has a 9 K-BB% and estimators two runs above his ERA
Zach Plesac has a 3.10 ERA with estimators all at least two runs higher and well below average peripherals (9 K-BB%). His 47.3 Z-O-Contact% is worst on the board, his .213 BABIP and 83.9 LOB% are not sustainable and his .342 xwOBA is 41 points above his actual mark. Odds makers seem to agree that Plesac is in over his head, gracing Houston with a 5.18 implied run line that’s third best, but still more than a full half run behind Boston and Texas. They still may be undervaluing a full strength Houston lineup with a sizeable park upgrade. Batters from either side the plate have at least a .340 xwOBA against Plesac, which spells bad news against a lineup containing several RHBs who can punish same-handed pitching. Jose Altuve (107 wRC+, .154 ISO) is the only one of the first batters in the order below a 150 wRC+ or .210 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Yordan Alvarez (193 wRC+, .337 ISO, 53 Hard%) has a 249 wRC+ over the last week and is in a great spot in a park that favors left-handed power.
Other tagged players: Zach Plesac, Jose Altuve Jose Urquidy has a 25 K-BB% and board leading 77.7 Z-Contact% through four starts
Jacob deGrom is clearly the top pitcher on the board tonight and potentially worth paying up for in a nice matchup against the White Sox (84 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB%), but that’s going to leave players with little room for offense or a secondary pitcher. While the middle of the board is not as interesting, there is one pitcher who stands out. Jose Urquidy was not on the prospect map when the season started, but exceeding a 25 K-BB% at both AA & AAA changed that. All he’s done through four major league starts is a 25 K-BB% exactly. Estimators are a full run or more below his 4.26 ERA due to a .346 BABIP. His 77.7 Z-Contact% is best on the board. And while he’s allowed 9.3% Barrels/BBE, that seems a bit fluky with a 49.1 GB% and 85.3 mph aEV (second best on the slate). Meanwhile, it’s a difficult park, but the Cleveland offense has been less than league average (93 wRC+) vs RHP. They did add a few bats at the trade deadline, but they’re not in tonight’s lineup and Urquidy will be out to prove he should remain in the Houston rotation with their acquisitions today. Urquidy costs just $7K on DraftKings, where players can probably pair him with the higher priced deGrom to form a high upside tandem.
Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom Rays lefties in position to do some damage at Fenway
Tonight’s forcast suggests some nice hitting weather in one of the most positive run environments in baseball, so load up the Red Sox at a board high 5.98 implied runs, right? That’s the obvious play, but Ryan Yarbrough threw 7.2 innings of one run ball here last month and leads the slate with a 3.8 BB% and 84.6 mph aEV. He’s also increased his strikeout rate to 23.7% over the last month. Yarbrough should be getting the bulk of the game for the Rays. Perhaps the more ideal pitcher to attack (at least in terms of game theory) is Rick Porcello, who allowed just three runs in his last start, the fewest he’s allowed since June 17th. His ERA and SIERA exceed five, while his DRA is above six. His strikeout rate is down to 17.6% with a 9.7% Barrels/BBE mark that’s tied for second highest on the board with Jordan Lyles behind only Vince Velasquez (12.7%). The Rays are the last of five teams above five implied runs tonight (5.02). LHBs have a .339 wOBA (.346 xwOBA) with just a 32 GB% against Porcello over the last calendar year. The Tampa Bay lineup boasts three LHBs (Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows and Nate Lowe) all above a 125 wRC+ and .185 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and also all above a 150 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week. Choi leads off tonight and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Austin Meadows, Nathaniel Lowe, Ryan Yarbrough, Rick Porcello Ballpark Upgrade With A Low Strikeout Rate
I like saving money at first baseball when we have really good matchups. Brandon Belt is really cheap across the industry. Velasquez has some strikeout stuff, but when he’s hit, it’s usually hard. He has a .358 wOBA with a .248 ISO and a 36.2% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. This is a ballpark upgrade for Belt, and I like to target the Giants when they’re on the road. Belt has a high walk rate with a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and he has a massive fly ball rate with a 37.8% hard-hit rate.
