DFS Alerts

Home Run Hunting

Even with Jeff Samardzija having pitched well recently, the home runs keep coming. For the season, he’s allowed a .246 ISO on 41% hard hits and 48% fly balls to left-handed batters. He gets a severe park downgrade going into Philadelphia where Bryce Harper awaits with his .207 ISO and 43% hard hits.

Underpriced On FanDuel

Porcello continues to struggle with left-handed hitters this season, and I really like the price points for Tampa on FanDuel. Porcello has a .372 wOBA with a .210 ISO and a 1.46 HR/9 against left-handed hitters this season. He also has a 6.21 xFIP with a 6.18 K/9 against lefties this season. Choi has been on and off the IL this season, but he does have a 40.4% hard-hit rate with a .406 CXwOBA against right-handed pitchers.

Boom/Bust Value Play

Jordan Lyles will be making his first start with the Brewers tonight, and he draws a decent matchup against Oakland. This is a nice ballpark for limiting home runs, and there is a good pitcher’s umpire behind the plate. I also think it helps that Grandal is behind the plate, he’s a very good pitch framer. The first four bats are strong, but the bottom of this lineup is weaker. They have four guys with wOBA’s over .350 and five guys with wOBA’s under .330 against right-handed pitching this season. There is nothing safe about this, but the price makes him worth a look in large field tournaments.

Power Up In The Outfield

The Red Sox will get an inning from Andrew Kittredge followed by a strike throwing lefty in Ryan Yarbrough. All of the big Boston bats are in play in all formats, but with planning for a couple at bats against the lefty, I’ll put J.D. Martinez on top of the list with his massive .478 ISO, .535 wOBA and 48% hard hits. The low 18.9% K of Yarbrough will have a hard time getting through Martinez, Betts and Bogaerts tonight.

Don't Overthink It

There haven’t been a lot of straightforward pitching slates recently, but we have one up top tonight with Jacob deGrom. He’s the most talented pitcher on this slate by a wide margin and he also gets one of the best possible matchups for a right-handed pitcher. The White Sox projected lineup has only two batters below a 24% strikeout rate and they have the lowest walk rate in the league on top of that which adds to his ability to pitch deep into games. I consider him a cash game lock and clearly the top tournament option.

Solid SP #2 Option

There isn’t ever anything safe when it comes to rostering Velasquez, but the recent trends have been positive. He tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings in his last start, and the most notable factor is that he was allowed to eclipse 100 pitches. The strikeout upside has always been there, but he simply doesn’t pitch deep enough into games to show his upside all that often. Tonight’s matchup is another favorable one against a lethargic Giants offense, and Velasquez is a fine GPP option here, particularly on the multi-pitcher sites.

Wednesday's Clear Ace

We have seen good right-handed pitchers mow down the White Sox all year long, and there’s no reason to expect anything different with deGrom tonight. The White Sox own the second highest strikeout rate and the third lowest wOBA in baseball against RHP this year, and their lineup is extremely watered down right now thanks to injury. deGrom owns solid metrics across the board along with a 31% strikeout rate this year, and he is far and away my favorite pitcher in all formats this evening.

Sneaky Power Stack

I don’t expect the Brewers to get a ton of traction tonight against Brett Anderson, and there’s a potentially sneaky GPP angle we can use here. Yelich and Moustakas are both very expensive, and it’s easy to pass them off as non-factors in a lefty-lefty matchup. However, Anderson has shown fairly strong reverse splits over the past several years. When you combine that thought with likely very low ownership here, I love Yelich and Moustakas in GPP formats. Throw in an affordable RHB like Cain and you have the makings of a nice little GPP stack at low ownership.

Kevan Smith scratched Tuesday; Dustin Garneau replaces

Smith has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to a presently specified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Dustin Garneau, who will now handle the catching duties and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Luis Rengifo up to eighth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Angels lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Drew VerHagen at home this evening.

Tommy Pham (hand) scratched Tuesday; Nate Lowe replaces

Pham has been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Boston Red Sox due to a sprained hand. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Nate Lowe, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Avisail Garcia and Michael Brosseau up to fourth and fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Rays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander David Price on the road this evening.

Griffin Canning could end struggles in great matchup (Tigers 72 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% vs RHP)

Griffin Canning now has an ERA above five with nearly matching estimators. His strikeout rate has remained steadily around a quarter of batters faced over the last month, but with a drop in SwStr rate to 8%. Still, he has a 13.6 SwStr% for the season and it’s difficult to see what’s behind his great struggles. His SIERA and DRA are still a reasonable 4.3, while exceptional contact management (29.9% 95+ mph EV) projects a .297 xwOBA. It’s a bit higher over the last month (.328), but still a full 100 points below his actual mark. There’s certainly the talent here to turn this thing around and an exceptional matchup tonight in which to do it. The Tigers have a 72 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Over the last week, their numbers are even worse (42 wRC+, 23.1 K-BB%). For those looking shopping in the bargain section tonight, Canning has the potential to offer a nice return for just $6.7K on FanDuel and even for $1.2K more on DraftKings.

Noah Syndergaard has a at least seven IP & eight Ks each of last three starts

Noah Syndergaard walked a season high five Padres last time out and allowed four runs for the third time in six starts, but there are some strong signs here as well. Syndergaard has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts with eight or more strikeouts in each and a 14.2 SwStr% over the last 30 days. An increase in strikeout rate would be a huge boon to the top contact manager on the board by aEV (86.2 mph). His 3.32 DRA and .281 xwOBA are both third best on the board, behind only Verlander and Morton. Whereas Verlander and Morton have tougher matchups in more positive run environments, Syndergaard faces the White Sox (85 wRC+, 19.6 K-BB% vs RHP) in Chicago. The home team also owns a board low 36 wRC+ over the last week with a 22.2 K-BB% and 5.2 HR/FB. Syndergaard may still not be able to rival Verlander as the top overall arm in the board, but he may have an argument as the best value among tonight’s four $10K pitchers as Thor is the cheapest of the four at $10.3K on DraftKings.

Joe Musgrove has underlying numbers better than results and is too cheap on DraftKings ($5.1K)

Joe Musgrove has spiked his strikeout rate to 25.2% (11.1 SwStr%) over the last month, but still can’t find any consistency. He allowed three HRs to the Cardinals last time out, the second time he’s allowed as many this season, despite only 14 allowed all season. While his overall numbers include a better than average 14.5 K-BB%, 3.66 DRA, 6.3% Barrels/BBE and .316 xwOBA, he is pitching in a difficult environment in Cincinnati tonight. However, Musgrove is facing an offense with just an 87 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP and five batters (not including pitcher) above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season in tonight’s particular lineup. Musgrove is still a risk here, but the key attraction is of just $5.1K on DraftKings, where he won’t have to do much to return a great value on that site. A $7.9K cost on FanDuel makes him a more marginal roster choice.

The Raw Power Is There

Bo Bichette is one of the best prospects in baseball and has a lot of raw power. He may take a while like Vlad to be good every day, but the talent level is really high for both. Montgomery has a .358 wOBA with a .239 ISO and a 13.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. With the low strikeout rate and the power allowed, I really like Bichette in his second career game tonight. There is a lot of upside in this spot, and he should hit towards the top of the lineup.

Conditions at Fenway could turn a good pitching matchup into a contrarian opportunity

Charlie Morton and David Price are quality pitchers. They are both in the top five in strikeout rate on the board (Morton 31%, Price 28%) and also SIERA (3.51, 3.77), xwOBA (.264, .285) and aEV (86.6 mph, 87 mph) with Morton having a lead in each category, along with a 50.6 GB% and 29.4 Z-O-Swing%, but facing the more difficult offense (Red Sox 115 wRC+ & 11.1 K-BB% vs RHP, board high 153 wRC+ last seven days, Rays 94 wRC+ & 26.5 K% vs LHP). If this game were in Tampa, we might be settling in for a pitching duel, but it’s not. Kevin’s forecast specifically states “warm, humid, winds blowing out towards the monstah at 10 mph”, as if Fenway wasn’t enough of a danger to navigate already.

Boston bats rosterable under these conditions despite batters from either side of the plate owning a wOBA and xwOBA below .300 against Morton over the last calendar year. Sportsbooks tend to agree, gracing the Red Sox with an implied run line slightly above five. They’re not as optimistic about Tampa Bay at 4.39, as Price also has an xwOBA against batters from either side within three points of .290 over the same span. Travis D’arnaud (135 wRC+, .314 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has been the most potent Tampa Bay bat among those projected tonight. Mookie Betts (149 wRC+, .235 ISO), Rafael Devers (153 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (151 wRC+, .250 ISO) have been the most potent bats against RHP. Even under such conditions, it might be reasonable to expect daily fantasy players having a hesitancy to attacking Morton and Price here (premium players have access to Projected Ownership rates), therefore offering a potentially contrarian opportunity with bats in this game.