DFS Alerts

Velocity Is Up

Over the last year, Reynaldo Lopez averages 95mph on his fastball and 83.2mph on his slider. Over his last four starts, he’s averaging 97.4mph on his fastball and 86.4mph on his slider. I’m not saying this is making the difference for him, but this was one of the only things I could find on his recent success. Velocity makes a huge difference when it’s a 2mph bump. While the Mets have some decent hitters at the top, there are still a lot of strikeouts in this lineup. They have a combined 20.1% strikeout rate, and Lopez has a 21.3% strikeout rate on the season. This is not safe but I like the upside in this price range.

Strikeout Or Hard Contact

I like to play the Giants when they’re on the road in good matchups, and that’s exactly what we have tonight. They’re getting a nice ballpark bump, and they face pitcher that has really struggled this season. Smyly has a .391 wOBA with a .249 ISO and a 49.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. He still has some decent strikeout stuff, but when hitters make contact, they usually hit him pretty hard. Austin has been good against left-handed pitching again this season. He has a .225 ISO with a .335 wOBA and a 45.2% hard-hit rate against lefties. His CXwOBA (.525) is much higher than his wOBA, and his biggest issue continues to be strikeouts.

A Lot Of Things In His Favor

There are some really nice cheaper pitching options on FanDuel tonight. Odorizzi draws a great matchup against the Marlins and receives a ballpark upgrade with this game being in Miami. He has a .266 wOBA with a .148 ISO and a 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. This projected lineup has seven righties plus the pitcher spot. They have a .136 ISO with a .319 wOBA and a 22.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Odorizzi’s biggest issue is hard-hit fly balls, and I’m hoping this ballpark will help with that.

Miami is a strong spot for a Jake Odorizzi rebound, while the Twins lose a big DH bat

Jake Odorizzi was smoked for another nine runs against the Yankees last time out. Over his last seven starts, he has a 7.99 ERA, 6.75 FIP and 5.60 xFIP as he’s lost his ability to miss bats up in the zone at an above average rate (86.1 Z-Contact%, 9.9 SwStr%). Consider that his season marks are still 79.8% and 11.8%. The obvious solution to this problem is a trip to Miami (Marlins 76 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 83 wRC+, 11.4 HR/FB at home). At a cost above $9K on DraftKings, trust issues are understandable for a pitcher with a .364 xwOBA over the last month that’s still 85 points below his actual mark and is now allowing 10.5% Barrels/BBE on the season. However, a $7.3K price tag on FanDuel in this great spot makes him a bit more marketable.

On the other side of this matchup, the Twins are not often an offense it’s suggested to roster pitchers against (114 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 17 HR/FB vs RHP), but not only do they lose a DH (which in this case is Nelson Cruz) and suffer a significant park downgrade tonight, but Zac Gallen has made an impact in his first six trips to a major league mound. His largest flaw is a 12% walk rate and while his 6.7 HR/FB is probably unsustainable even in Miami, he’s produced a board leading 28.5 Z-O-Swing% and 2.7% Barrels/BBE to go along with his 28 K% and .290 xwOBA. Gallen is within $300 of $8K on either site.

The Best Way To Get In Play Here

The Dodgers were a disappointment in Coors Field on Monday, but this is not a team to shy away from. It is tougher against a left-handed pitcher, but the guy who best fits the matchup against the lefty as well as having less pinch hit risk than the rest is Justin Turner. Kyle Freeland has allowed a .275 ISO on just 16.2% strikeouts to righties this season while Tuner has a huge 56% hard hit rate to go along with his strong plate skills.

Mid-Tier Outfield

Julio Teheran has had a nice run of real life starts, but he has long struggled with left-handed batters. Over his last four starts, he’s gotten by with a low .230 BABIP and 7.7% HR/FB rate, and that kind of luck is not going to last forever. Soto’s strong plate skills make him cash game playable while he has the power to be used on his own in tournaments and his lineup spot makes him a priority in any Nationals stack.

Taylor Clarke brings a board high 12.9% Barrels/BBE to Yankee Stadium

Taylor Clarke has allowed 13 HRs in 51.2 innings behind a 16.8 K% and board high 12.9% Barrels/BBE. No other pitcher on the slate is within two points of that latter mark. Luckily for him, Kevin’s forecast does not suggest that the opposition will get much of a weather boost against Clarke in this road start. Much more unfortunately for him, that opposing team will be the Yankees, who are implied for a ridiculous 6.6 runs that no team outside Coors is within one-half run of. Also unfortunate for Clarke is that batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .380 wOBA against him. Statcast drops RHBs to a .349 xwOBA, but that still does not leave him in anything close to an envious position. Each of the first eight batters in the projected order for the Yankees have at least a 105 wRC+ with an ISO above .150 vs RHP over the last calendar year. Remove leadoff man DJ LeMahieu (105 wRC+, .151 ISO) and eighth hole projection Mike Tauchman (108 wRC+, .226 ISO) and the remaining six are all above a 110 wRC+ and .180 vs RHP over that span. Aaron Hicks (136 wRC+, .249 ISO) is the top power bat via ISO with the second best wRC+ by these standards. It would be safe and perhaps a bit obvious to say that building daily fantasy lineups around Yankee bats as an alternative to Coors carries abundant upside.

J.A. Happ might not be a bad target to focus an attack on either in a much less obvious spot (Diamondbacks 4.4 implied runs). The reasoning is simple. He has struggled (18.3 HR/FB, 5.23 ERA, 6.85 DRA, 88.9 mph aEV, 8.1% Barrels/BBE), while the Diamondbacks have not (112 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 17 HR/FB, 26 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). Fourteen of Happ’s 23 HRs have been allowed at home. Ketel Marte (161 wRC+, .298 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Eduardo Escobar (155 wRC+, .261 ISO) are key bats. RHBs have a .327 wOBA, .332 xwOBA against Happ over the last calendar year.

Just Too Cheap

Griffin Canning has had some struggles recently, but this salary is just too low for a matchup against the Tigers. Detroit has the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching while ranking 29th in ISO and 30th in wOBA. Most of Canning’s bad recent stretch is one outlier start and an appearance out of the bullpen that was the first of his career at any level, and out of his routine. He has a 26% K rate with just 5.7% walks against righties this season and the lack of power and patience for Detroit is enough to put him into play in all formats.

Outward bound winds in a power friendly park not a good omen for Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly struck out eight of 23 Pirates in his first start for the Phillies. Pitching in Texas, he’d allowed 19 HRs in 51.1 innings. Weather effects tonight may make Philadelphia, an already power friendly park, feel like Texas tonight. When he’s on, Smyly can miss some bats near the top of the zone (83.7 Z-Contact%), but he’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher (29 GB%), who doesn’t get as many swings outside of the zone as you’d like (42.7 Z-O-Swing%). With more than 40% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, a double digit Barrel rate is essentially a given (10.7% per BBE) with his ground ball rate, resulting in a .381 xwOBA. While the Giants are tied for the worst split on the board vs LHP (76 wRC+), this could be a trouble spot for Smyly, as their increase their HR/FB rate to 14.3% on the road. At a healthy five implied runs, the Giants still sit merely in the middle of the board on Tuesday, however, what they do provide that most other highly projected offenses tonight can’t is a potential patch towards high priced pitching as well. Not a single batter among the first seven in tonight’s projected lineup costs more than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. Thus, despite only Donovan Solano (128 wRC+, .102 ISO, .403) and Tyler Austin (109 wRC+, .267 ISO) showing any proficiency vs LHP over the last calendar year, a group of below average bats behind them (Buster Posey 63 wRC+, .087…yikes!), may still carry some value against a pitcher whom RHBs have hammered for a .378 wOBA and xwOBA, while LHBs have done even better (.493 wOBA, .396 xwOBA).

Freddy Galvis (back) scratched Monday; Brandon Drury replaces

Galvis has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to lower back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brandon Drury, who will now play left field and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Randal Grichuk all the way up to second, respectively. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Brad Keller on the road this evening.

Chris Paddack has a .205 xwOBA at home this season

Chris Paddack is in a fantastic spot at home against the Orioles (87 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB%), who have been showing a bit of life lately, but still carry a well below average offense. Paddack owns the lowest walk rate on the board (5.6%), which also makes him one of four pitchers above a 20 K-BB% tonight (20.9%). His 2.84 ERA is at least a full run below traditional estimators due to a .205 BABIP and 79.7 LOB%, but a 3.02 DRA is second best on the slate, while he’s displayed a stunning .205 xwOBA at home this year. A quality contact manager (86.6 mph aEV) with great peripherals in a strong matchup in a pitcher’s park puts him in the conversation among tonight’s top overall arms. He may be the top value on FanDuel just less than 9K, while a $10.2K price tag on DraftKings isn’t as easy a choice between he and Corbin, as he’s only exceeded 24 batters faced twice this season.

Hard contact prone pitcher (15.2 K%, .381 xwOBA) faces contact prone offense (18.9 K% vs RHP) in LA

Jordan Zimmermann is second in strikeout rate (15.2%) and Hard-Soft (29.1%) on this board. Second worst that is. Additional places where we find him either worst or second worst (after David Hess was named starter by the O’s) are a 7.57 ERA, 5.34 SIERA, 7.90 DRA, 26.9 LD% and .381 xwOBA. Pair him with a quality offense tonight (109 wRC+, 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), also with this lowest strikeout rate on the board (18.9% vs RHP), and fireworks should ensue. The Angels are the only offense outside Coors above six implied runs and batters from either side of the plate are above a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Zimmermann over the last calendar year. Daily fantasy players should be jamming Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .385 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) into their lineups, along with a healthy heaping of Shohei Ohtani (161 wRC+, .310 ISO), plus a sprinkling in some Justin Upton (144 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (95 wRC+, .207 ISO), along with whoever leads off.

Josh VanMeter has been crushing RHP (160 wRC+, .250 ISO, 58.1 Hard%)

Alex McRae will take Jordan Lyles’s spot in the rotation on short notice. The 26 year-old was starting in AAA, where he held a modest 12.9 K-BB% before being recalled last week. He’s made five previous appearances for Pittsburgh this year, all in relief, but facing at least 12 batters for times. In 14 innings (67 batters faced), he’s posted a similar 11.9 K-BB%, but with just a 34.9 GB% and six HRs allowed. Batters from either side exceed a .360 wOBA against him, while he’s allowed 9.4% Barrels/BBE. The Reds are a below average offense (86 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP), but they do have some power (16.4 HR/FB at home) and are the second hottest offense on the board over the last week by both wRC+ (118) and HR/FB (18.8%). The pitching change shoots Cincinatti’s total above six runs tonight with only one offense outside Coors higher. Jesse Winker (120 wRC+, .240 ISO) in the leadoff spot, may be the top overall bat and value in this lineup, but Josh VanMeter hits fifth tonight, costing just $3.7K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel. VanMeter has been destroying RHP in a small sample (160 wRC+, .250 ISO, 58.1 Hard%). He has a lineup high 377 wRC+ and 69.2 Hard% over the last week. A 173 wRC+ in 211 AAA PAs this year suggests this is not a fluke.

Atlanta lineup features several high K bats vs LHP

Patrick Corbin has allowed a total of eight runs over his last seven starts. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and possibly the top overall pitcher tonight. He and Keuchel are the only pitchers on the board averaging more than six innings per start this year, an out to two more per outing than all other high priced starters tonight. His 28.5 K% is third best on the slate, just 2.5 points off the lead. His 3.25 ERA and 3.80 SIERA are second best. A 3.12 DRA is third, while owning the only sub-30 Z-O-Swing% (28.7) on this board. He has had some issues with contact. An 89.7 mph aEV and 10.1% Barrels/BBE are both second worst on the board, but four other pitchers are above his 40.1% 95+ mph EV and his .268 xwOBA over the last month is fourth best. The Braves have been just as good against LHP as they are RHP. A 103 wRC+ is supported by a 17.4 HR/FB and 24.1 Hard-Soft%. Corbin’s usage does not preclude the use of lefty mashing Ronald Acuna (193 wRC+, .338 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Ozzie Albies (168 wRC+, .235 ISO) or Austin Riley (188 wRC+, .468 ISO) on a small slate, but the Braves have also produced a lineup tonight featuring five batters above a 26 K% vs LHP this year, according to Plate IQ. That total does not include the pitcher’s spot or Adam Duvall (24.8 career K% vs LHP). There are more strikeouts here than players may think.

The Hess Truck's Back And It's Better Than Ever

The Orioles just recalled David Hess to start tonight with his 40%+ FB & HH rate that has led to giving up 21 home runs in just 68 innings pitched this season. It’s rare to see the Padres with a 5+ implied run total at home in Petco, and with their batters priced up in a similar range to Coors hitters, their ownership should remain pretty low despite the pristine matchup. My top targets would be the fly ball / power bats such as Tatis, Machado, Renfroe & Reyes that could be utilized as one-offs, but fading Coors for the full 5-man stack (optimally using Mejia in the C slot) is a potential high leverage play in large-field GPPs.