DFS Alerts
Cheap 3-Man Power Stack In Scarce Positions
Typically, I wouldn’t necessarily target bats against Corbin, but since tonight is a smaller 7-game slate with less options, the power righties could be in play for GPPs. The Braves lineup has four that fit the bill priced under $4k on DraftKings, two of which in Flowers & Albies that fill scarce positions (C/2B) in a lineup. A full 5-man Braves stack isn’t completely out of the question, but I’m more inclined to use them as a 2-3-man that allows you access to the more expensive bats in Coors tonight.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall, Austin Riley
Salary Saving SPs Against The Wind
With many focusing on Barria & Kelly as pay down options, the SPs in Kansas City might go overlooked in a spot where the run total has been dropping all day due to the wind blowing in at Kauffman Stadium. Brad Keller is not a high upside pitcher with his 16% K rate and heavy ground ball lean, but he’s a bit overpriced at $8400 on DK which should keep is ownership down on a Coors slate where you need savings at SP. On the other side of the game, Pannone projects similarly against a fairly bad Royals lineup without Mondesi and with him more stretched out (76 & 65 PC last two starts), I don’t mind taking a shot at only a $5500 price tag on two-pitcher sites like DK.
Other tagged players: Brad Keller The Ace At A Discount
We’ve got four good pitchers tonight with similar skills and upside in Patrick Corbin, Caleb Smith, Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack. On FD, Paddack comes with a nice discount where he looks like the top choice for cash games and with strong tournament appeal as well. Even on his somewhat limited pitch count, his strong control gives him the ability to pitch deep enough into games to be useful. The Orioles will lose a DH while travelling to San Diego where Paddack has been far more dominant this season with a 32.3% K rate and just 3.2% walks.
Second Best Is Pretty Good
The lefties at Coors Field are the clear top plays tonight, but next in line is a pretty great 2nd place with the Angels In The Outfield. Mike Trout is up alongside Cody Bellinger as the top play on the slate, while Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun add left-handed power. For a little more savings on DK/FDRFT while keeping the upside, we can move down to Justin Upton who has been hitting ball hard recently (52% HH last two weeks) and has a .393 wOBA against righties that is second only to Trout in this Angels lineup. Jordan Zimmermann is a good matchup for right-handed power with his extreme strike throwing and lack of swing and miss ability.
Get In Play Here One Way Or Another
The Dodgers are the obvious top offense on the slate, and it will be very tough to get away from them in any format. The issue is the salaries make it tough to jam in the likes of Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson. While Bellinger would be my first overall choice, with Muncy and Pederson’s power next, the lowest strikeout rates for Dodgers lefties belong to Alex Verdugo and Corey Seager. While they don’t have quite the power of their teammates, they have plenty, with a .199 ISO and 44% HH rate for Verdugo and a .220 ISO and 39% HH for Seager. Their salaries allow to keep Dodgers exposure in cash games while potentially getting you something different in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Alex Verdugo Matchup Makes The Difference
This is a tough slate tonight. It’s clear who the top pitchers are, but it’s even more clear who the top offenses are. With the salaries on the Dodgers lefties and Angels outfielders, ruling the day, I am siding towards cheaper pitching, where Merrill Kelly gets the nod with his trip to Miami. He has been solid against right-handed bats with a 21.6% K rate and 47% ground balls with good control. He’s nothing outstanding, but he can pile up innings when BABIP cooperates. With the low power Marlins and their heavy ground ball lean, this is a fair salary for all formats on all sites.
High Fly Ball Rate With A Lot Of Hard Contact
Brad Keller has pitched really well over his last three games and continues to generate ground balls at a nice clip. He has a 48.5% ground ball rate against left-handed hitters this season, with a 17.9% strikeout rate. Biggio has a 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He does have a .212 ISO with a high fly ball rate against righties though. He also has a 45.6% hard-hit rate with a 91.7 average exit velocity against righties. I like his price tag and I don’t believe in this Keller strong run.
Hopefully He Stays Hot
After struggling in his first couple weeks, Thaiss put together a really good weekend against Baltimore. He’s a top ten prospect with the Angels and had a low strikeout rate with a .203 ISO in AAA this season. He draws an excellent matchup against Jordan Zimmermann tonight. Zimmermann has a .410 wOBA with a .194 ISO and a 16.3% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season.
Not Many Options Today
We don’t have a lot of cheap pitchers on this slate, so we look to a right-handed pitcher facing the Tigers. The Tigers projected starting lineup has a .156 ISO with a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have four lefties, and Barria has a much higher strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. Barria has pitched well in four of the last five games and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of nine outings. Hopefully with the lower walk rate for the Tigers, he can command this game and pitch five or six good innings.
Nick Castellanos (abdominal) scratched Sunday; Gordon Beckham replaces
Castellanos has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Sunday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to abdominal tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gordon Beckham, who will now play second base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Tigers batting order but, most notably, bumps Brandon Dixon up to cleanup, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Detroit faces off against left-hander Tommy Milone on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter Other tagged players: Gordon Beckham
Eric Sogard scratched Sunday; Billy McKinney replaces
Sogard has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Sunday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Billy McKinney, who will now play right field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Blue Jays batting order but, most notably, bumps Cavan Biggio all the way up to leadoff, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Toronto faces off against right-hander Yonny Chirinos at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Mike Wilner via Twitter Other tagged players: Billy McKinney Dakota Hudson has a .373 xwOBA allowed and 5.34 SIERA over the past 30 days
The Astros face Dakota Hudson this afternoon, who has had a tough year and an even tougher past 30 days. Overall, Hudson does have a 3.61 ERA but a 5.15 FIP, 4.52 xFIP, 4.95 SIERA and 6.4% K-BB prove that his ERA is completely a fluke. He also has a 39.3% hard contact rate, 89.4 MPH aEV and .343 xwOBA allowed. He’s been even worse over the past 30 days with a .373 xwOBA allowed, 5.34 SIERA, 5.27 xFIP and 2.25 HR/9. Though the Astros will be without Alex Bregman this afternoon, they also just returned Carlos Correa from the IL. George Springer (.399 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Michael Brantley (.380), Yordan Alvarez (.375), Carlos Correa (.366) and Yuli Gurriel (.320) are all great options today. Gurriel has been their hottest hitter with a .420 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by George Springer with a .409 mark. Hudson will have to deal with one of the league’s worst pitch framers in Matt Wieters, as well as a very hitter friendly umpire in Greg Gibson, making the matchup even sweeter for the Astros. The Astros currently have an implied total of 5, which feels like a number they could easily surpass this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley
Alex Wood returns from the IL in great spot vs. Rockies
On a slate with 10 different games, it would normally be wise to avoid pitchers who are making their first start four months into the season. However, good pitching matchups are few and far between on this slate, and there’s some reason to like Alex Wood this afternoon in what looks to be a good spot. Wood did look decent in 4 MiLB rehab starts, pitching to a 3.18 ERA, striking out 11 and walking just 2 in 11 and 2/3 innings. His most recent start saw him throw 6 innings, giving up just 1 earned run while striking out 4, walking none and giving up 4 hits. Since 2017, Wood has a 3.20 ERA, 3.53 xFIP and 22.9% K rate compared to a 6.2% BB rate over 304 innings pitched. Today he gets a matchup with a Rockies team that is just atrocious on the road; they have a 2nd-worst 71 wRC+ and 27.7% K rate on the road this year. The Rockies will have just one batter in the lineup (Ian Desmond) who has an xwOBA greater than .305 on the road this year. Wood will also have the advantage of a pitcher friendly umpire in Bill Miller this afternoon. Wood comes with an $8.1k price on Draftkings and $7.5k on Fanduel and is certainly an option in all contests. The Rockies currently have a 4.68 implied line vs. Wood and the Reds.
D-Backs are an interesting contrarian stack option vs. Marlins
The Diamondbacks will face Elieser Hernandez this afternoon, who showed some promise as a starter earlier in the year but has been in the bullpen for almost the past month. Recently announced to return to the rotation, Hernandez will be on a low pitch count this afternoon and isn’t someone to necessarily shy away from as he did have a 4.87 FIP and 2.0 HR/9 over 26 2/3 innings as a starter. The D-Backs project to see plenty of plate appearances vs. the Miami bullpen, who has allowed a 7th worst 4.87 xFIP on the year. Ketel Marte (138 wRC+, .232 ISO vs. RHP this year), David Peralta (128 wRC+, .220 ISO), Alex Avila (126 wRC+, .301 ISO), Jake Lamb (109 wRC+, .167 ISO), and Eduardo Escobar (103 wRC+, .227 ISO) are the best options in the D-Backs order this afternoon. Jake Lamb has been their hottest hitter with a 154 wRC+ over the past 30 days, and is one of their more affordable hitters across the industry. D-Backs hitters will also have the advantage of an extremely hitter-friendly umpire in Alfonso Marquez. Certainly not a slam dunk play by any means (especially being in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park) a D-Backs stack is a way to get super contrarian on this slate as they are almost guaranteed to have very low ownership. They currently have a 4.32 implied line vs. Hernandez and the Marlins Sunday afternoon.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta, Alex Avila, Ketel Marte Flyball Hitter In Great Conditions
Wade Miley, while not being a great pitcher, is not someone typically to pick on with his ability to limit hard contact. However, it’s hot, humid and the wind is blowing out today with St. Louis sporting a 4.5 implied run total. Cardinals righties with a fly ball hitting lean such as Tyler O’Neill ($3700 DK) could be fruitful as a one-off in GPPs and I’d even consider a 3-man stack with Goldschmidt & DeJong, both hitting extremely well lately, to be viable.