DFS Alerts
Reds have 2nd highest total on the main slate vs. Peter Lambert
Peter Lambert does a good job limiting walks (just a 4.4% BB rate this year) but doesn’t miss enough bats (17% K rate, 7.5% SwStr) and gives up a good amount of hard contact (39% Hard contract rate, 90.5 MPH aEV). He’s also allowed a 2.20 HR/9 so far over his 41 innings for the Rockies. Lambert has been a bit more vulnerable versus lefties with a .354 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB compared to a .316 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB. Josh VanMeter (.380 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Joey Votto (.332), Yasiel Puig (.330), Eugenio Suarez (.321) and Nick Senzel (.312) are all great options. VanMeter has been the Reds’ hottest hitter by far with a .517 xwOBA over the past 30 days, followed by Nick Senzel (.374) and Eugenio Suarez (.368). Scooter Gennett is also an interesting option, he has just a .261 xwOBA over the past 14 days but had a 134 wRC+ vs. RHP last year and costs $3.4k on Draftkings. VanMeter is probably the best value in the lineup, batting 5th at just $3.6k, while Votto is also a nice value batting 2nd at $4k. The Reds currently have a 5.82 implied line at home vs. Lambert and the Rockies.
Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Nick Senzel, Josh VanMeter, Eugenio Suarez, Peter Lambert
Savvy Lefty We're Forced To Consider
Ugh, Jason Vargas against the Pirates. I don’t want to say, but I’ll say it – I like Jason Vargas against Pittsburgh in all formats as an SP2. We just saw teammate Steven Matz mow down these Pirates, as Pittsburgh just continues to struggle against left-handed pitching. On the season, Pittsburgh has the third lowest team ISO against left-handed pitching and also ranks dead-last in wRC+ against southpaws. All the reasons we liked Steven Matz last night apply here to his lefty teammate Jason Vargas. Let me just go on record saying I don’t think Vargas is a good pitcher, and his 39.6% Hard Hit rate are very concerning, but given his price point, I think we have to seriously consider him on this slate (vomit).
Cheap Bat At Heart of the Order
The Reds continue to give Josh VanMeter playing time at the heart of their order, giving us some salary relief. Today he faces Peter Lambert, who has struggled to batters on both side of the plate. It’s a great ballpark for power and considering VanMeter blasted one out of Great American Ballpark on Saturday, he’s someone I’m willing to go back to.
Chris Archer has a 23.5% K-BB and 3.72 SIERA over the past 30 days
Chris Archer has easily been one of the most frustrating players to roster this year as he has been very prone to blow-ups even in good matchups. He has a horrid 2.23 HR/9, 5.40 ERA, 42.6% hard contact and 22.6% HR/FB on the year. However, Archer has looked remarkably better over the past 30 days with a 3.72 SIERA, 3.92 xFIP, 33% K rate, 9.6% BB rate and 14.2% SwStr. Looking at Archer’s profile, he hasn’t changed his pitch selection at all, but he has seen an improved O-Swing%, Z-contact% and SwStr% over the past 30 days. Archer faces the Mets this afternoon, who have been just below average with a 97 wRC+ and 22.5% K rate vs. RHP on the year, and a 14th ranked .308 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Archer is still having homerun problems as evidenced by a 2 HR/9 over his past 30 days and is definitely not a safe play here. Especially when you consider the Mets have a 10th best 16.2% HR/FB vs. RHP this year. However, Archer has shown improvement and comes with a decently affordable price across the industry, which makes him intriguing on this slate given that there just aren’t many good options today.
Kyle Gibson is a nice value arm vs. CHW
It has quietly been a solid season for Kyle Gibson, who so far has posted a 4.24 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, and 4.13 SIERA with a 23.2% K rate compared to a 6.8% BB rate, a 13.5% SwStr, and just a 26.5% FB rate. The K%, BB%, SwStr%, xFIP all would be career bests for Gibson. The White Sox come into this game with just an 86 wRC+ and 25.9% K Rate vs. RHP on the year. They also have just an 80 wRC+ over the past 30 days as they’ve been without two of their better hitters in Eloy Jimenez and Tim Anderson. The White Sox will have just two batters in their lineup today who have an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. RHP on the year. Gibson projects to have plus pitch-framer Jason Castro behind the plate, and also has a pitcher-friendly ump in Angel Hernandez calling balls and strikes. Gibson will cost just $7.7k on Draftkings and $7.2k on Fanduel; given that this slate is once again pretty dry at SP, Gibson is one of the better PTS/$ options and figures to have decently high ownership. He will also have a good shot at getting the ‘W’ as the Twins are -186 favorites for this matchup. The White Sox currently have a 4.45 implied line.
Top GPP Stack
I like the Cleveland Indians as my favorite tournaments stack of the day. Danny Duffy has looked solid over his last two starts, but the Indians over the last month have been hitting very well, ranking 7th in ISO and 3rd in wOBA. The Indians have some patient hitters with low strikeout rates to left handed pitching. Duffy is giving up a 38% fly ball rate, 40% hard hit rate and its hot with winds blowing 10-15 MPH out to left which is bump to the bats.
Other tagged players: Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
Contrarian Spend Up
Christian Yelich should be lower owned going up against the lefty Jose Quintana. This season Yelich has been awesome against lefties with a .317 ISO, .408 wOBA, and a 52.7% hard hit rate. He is also the highest priced hitter on most sites and the left handed pitcher on the mound will keep most people from spending up for him. Give me the best hitter in baseball at low ownership in tournaments.
Great
Kyle Gibson draws a great matchup against the struggling White Sox. This year, the White Sox are 3rd in strikeout rate at 25.9% and 28th in both ISO and wOBA. In their projected lineup they only have one player below a 24% strikeout rate to right handed pitching. Gibson has been up and down this season, but he still has a 23% strikeout rate with a solid 13.4% swinging strike rate. The White Sox are not a patient team so I think Gibson could be in line for a ceiling game at a very cheap price on most sites.
Top Spend Up At SP1
Robbie Ray is the pitcher at the top I like to pay up for in tournaments. He gets the Marlins in one of the best pitchers ball parks in the league. He is tops in strikeout rate at 31% and second in swinging strike rate at 14% on this slate. Ray has had 7 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 games and he definitely has the upside for double digit strikeouts today.
Cheap 3-Man To Fill Scare Positions
If you want to pay up for expensive Twins & Astros OF bats today, you’re going to need a few cheap infielders to round out the lineup. Although there are several even-cheaper options, Toronto has a fairly healthy implied run total of 4.6. Yonny Chirinos is a league-average pitcher with fairly neutral splits, so don’t mind taking bats from either side of the plate against him. Guerrero Jr., Biggio & Galvis are all cheap at $3400-3500 on DraftKings correlated in the heart of the order, and this 3-man in GPPs can easily give you access to pay up at SP or OF with high ceiling players.
Other tagged players: Cavan Biggio, Freddy Galvis
Orioles should be low-owned in good spot vs. Dillon Peters
Dillon Peters is a career 5.45 ERA / 5.02 xFIP pitcher over 72 2/3 innings despite seeing a good amount of those innings in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. He also owned a 6.47 ERA / 5.33 FIP / 4.81 xFIP over 57 innings in AAA this year with an ugly 1.74 HR/9. Per Statcast he 352 xwOBA allowed and 89.8 MPH aEV in his career. The Orioles haven’t been a good offense this year by any measure, but they do have a 101 wRC+ over the past 30 days and some intriguing options in their lineup tonight. Trey Mancini (.388 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Pedro Severino (.382), Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander (.308) and Hanser Alberto (.295) are all good options tonight. Santander has been their hottest hitter with a .394 xwOBA over the past 30 days, followed by Renato Nunez (.346) and Trey Mancini (.345). Alberto and Severino are both nice values on Draftkings as they are under $3.4k. As a whole, the Orioles are a very affordable stack on both sites and will likely see very low ownership. They currently have a 4.11 implied line vs. the Angels and make for a solid contrarian play tonight.
Other tagged players: Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino, Hanser Alberto Cubs bats project to see low ownership despite nice matchup in Miller Park vs. Anderson
With a good amount of stack options on the slate, it’s possible the Cubs are going overlooked despite being in a great run environment versus a mediocre pitcher. Chase Anderson has mixed in some good outings this year and he’s actually allowed 2 or less earned runs in 6 straight starts. However, he hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of lineups in those starts and has a 5.05 xFIP over that time frame. Anthony Rizzo (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Robel Garcia (.363). Kyle Schwarber (.363), Kris Bryant (.359), Willson Contreras (.345), Jason Heyward (.339) and Javier Baez (.335) are all great options tonight. Robel Garcia is leading off and is a nice value on both major sites. Rizzo has been the Cubs’ hottest hitter with a .374 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Schwarber with a .351 xwOBA. Most middle of the order Cubs bats will cost about $5k on Draftkings and $4k on Fanduel, but they project to see low ownership and have a good shot at surpassing their 4.75 implied total tonight.
Other tagged players: Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Robel Garcia Twins have the highest total on the slate versus Nova
After 3 straight solid years, Ivan Nova has had a rough 2019 as he’s seen virtually every stat category regress. His K% is down while his ERA, estimators, hard contact rate, BB%, HR/9, xwOBA and barrel% are all up this year. Nova is a bit worse versus lefties (.352 xwOBA vs. LHB, .337 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2018) but it’s not a huge difference and he can be targeted with hitters from both sides of the plate. The Twins come into this game with the 4th highest wRC+ over the past 30 days and have a number of good options in their lineup. Nelson Cruz (.411 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jorge Polanco (.368), Max Kepler (.365), Eddie Rosario (.345), Marwin Gonzalez (.323) and Miguel Sano (.318) are all great options. Cruz has been by far the hottest bat in the Twins’ lineup of late with a .470 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Mitch Garver with a .416 mark. Marwin Gonzalez is the best value in the lineup as he will cost just $3.9k on Draftkings; the rest of the aforementioned hitters will cost $4.8k or higher on DK. The Twins currently have a 6.28 implied line vs. Nova and the White Sox tonight.
Other tagged players: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver Steven Matz has a 3.26 ERA and 17.6% K-BB in home starts since 2018
Steven Matz has mostly had a rough year, as he has a 4.75 ERA, 4.58 xFIP and 4.59 SIERA with a 13.6% K-bb, 41.3% hard contact rate allowed and 9.3% SwStr. He’s also allowed a .346 xwOBA, 11.7% barrel rate and 88.6 MPH aEV. However, Matz has been a completely different pitcher in home starts: he has just a 2.54 ERA, 3.53 xFIP and 19.9% K-BB with a .302 xwOBA and 84.6 MPH aEV in 39 innings pitched when pitching at home this year. Since 2018, he has a 3.26 ERA, 25.4% K rate and 3.64 xFIP in home starts. Tonight he gets a matchup at home with the Pirates, who have a league-worst 72 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching in 2019. The Pirates have just 3 batters in the lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .315 over the past 2 weeks. Matz is priced at just $6.9k on Draftkings and just $6.4k on Fanduel, making him an intriguing option in all contests given the lack of SP options on tonight’s slate. The Pirates currently have a 4.37 implied line tonight vs. Matz and the Mets.
Platoon Power In Overlooked Spot
Albeit in a small sample size, Cal Quantrill has remarkably drastic splits against lefties (16.5% K, .376 wOBA, .230 ISO) and the Giants will likely have 6 in their lineup. The two Brandons (Belt & Crawford) have ample power to take advantage and are both priced under $4k on DraftKings. Although the game is being played at Petco, this is actually a slight ballpark upgrade for San Fran, and will likely be a low owned spot due the perceived nature of the Giants offense. Posey, Sandoval & Dickerson could viably round out a fairly cheap 5-man stack in GPPs, but with only a 4.1 implied run total currently, I’m probably more inclined to use as a secondary 2-3 man stack or as one-offs.
Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford