DFS Alerts
Angels bats in a good spot at home vs. Leake’s 91.4 MPH aEV
Mike Leake doesn’t give many free passes as he has just a 3.5% BB rate, leading to a good WHIP (1.24) and respectable 4.32 ERA. However, Leake does give up a lot of loud contact as evidenced by a 40.6% hard contact rate, 91.4 MPH aEV, .343 xwOBA and .401 xwOBA on contact. It makes some sense to deploy high upside, strikeout prone free-swingers like Shohei Ohtani (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Upton (.486) and Justin Bour (.286) versus a pitcher like Leake who consistently works in the zone and does not miss many bats with a 7.9% SwStr and 17.3% K rate. Other options in the LAA projected lineup include Mike Trout (.499), Kole Calhoun (.342) and David Fletcher (.337). Recent call-up Matt Thaiss (115 wRC+, .203 ISO in AAA this year) is also in play. Justin Bour started off the season slow, but does have an improved .321 xwOBA over the past month. Calhoun, Upton and Bour are all $4.1k or less on Draftkings, while Matt Thaiss is just $3k. The Angels have a solid 5.67 implied line vs. Leake and the Mariners at home tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Leake, Matt Thaiss, Kole Calhoun
Adam Wainwright has 3.07 ERA, 25.4% K rate since June 1st
Adam Wainwright has quietly been a serviceable pitcher this year as he owns a 4.31 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, and 4.61 SIERA with a 12.3% K-BB. He has kept the ball on the ground with a 50% GB rate and has a .328 xwOBA allowed, 8.3% barrel rate and 87.6 MPH aEV. Since June 1st, Wainwright has a 3.07 ERA, 3.79 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA with a 25.4% K rate and 10.7% BB rate. Wainwright gets the start tonight vs. the Diamondbacks at home, where he’s been a completely different pitcher. Since 2017, Wainwright has a 3.93 xFIP, .305 xwOBA and 13.5% K-BB at home compared to a 4.86 xFIP, .352 xwOBA and 7.7% K-BB on the road. On the year, the D-Backs have just an 89 wRC+ and 21.9% K rate vs. RHP. The D-backs have just 2 batters in their projected lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .320 vs. RHP in 2019. Wainwright will be $8.1k on Draftkings and $7.6k on Fanduel and is an intriguing option on a slate that mostly lacks obvious SP plays. The D-Backs currently have a 4.16 implied line vs. Wainwright and the Cardinals at Busch Stadium tonight.
Chase Anderson is a nice value at SP tonight vs. SFG
Chase Anderson is $6.5k or less on both major sites tonight and makes some sense at SP if you want to save salary to stack Coors or another high-salary stack. Making 12 of 17 of his appearances as a starter this year, Anderson has pitched to a 4.32 ERA, 4.64 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA with a 23.2% K rate and 8% walk rate. He also has a .329 xwOBA allowed with a solid 6.7% barrel rate and 86.5 MPH aEV. Anderson’s four-seamer has increased by 1 MPH this year and he’s using it a bit less; he’s subsequently increased the use of his changeup and cutter which have historically been more effective pitches for him in terms of xwOBA allowed. Though Anderson gets this start in hitter-friendly Miller Park, he gets a matchup with the Giants who have just an 81 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year. The Giants have one of the lowest homerun rates vs. RHP at just 2.9%, making it a bit easier to stomach rostering Anderson in launchpad Miller park. The Giants currently have just a 3.96 implied line vs. Anderson tonight. On a slate that is shaky at SP, Anderson projects to be one of the better PTS/$ pitchers.
Aaron Sanchez has highest 30-day SIERA on the board (6.27) vs. Yankees in the Bronx tonight
Sanchez has largely struggled all year and has certainly not improved of late as he has a 13.05 ERA, 6.27 SIERA, 5.96 xFIP and 0 K-BB% over the past 30 days. He has a 6.16 ERA, 5.33 xFIP and 5.57 SIERA with a 4.9% K-BB on the year. Sanchez still induces a lot of groundballs and keeps the ball out of the air (49% GB rate, 28.3% FB rate this year) but the K/BB ratio is awful, and he allows way too many baserunners as evidenced by his 1.75 WHIP. After having very wide platoon splits throughout his career, Sanchez has actually been worse vs. RHB this year with a .377 wOBA vs. righties compared to a .347 wOBA vs. lefties. The Yankees currently have the highest implied total on the slate at 7.07. Gleyber Torres (137 wRC+, .251 ISO vs. RHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (137 wRC+, .186 ISO), Gio Urshela (137 wRC+, .186 ISO), Brett Gardner (125 wRC+, .258 ISO), Didi Gregorious (125 wRC+, .167 ISO), Gary Sanchez (123 wRC+, .315 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (115 wRC+, .265 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (110 wRC+, .263 ISO) are all options in the Yanks’ projected lineup. Aaron Judge has a 110 wRC+ / .263 ISO vs. RHP this year in 107 PA but has a 139 wRC+ / .243 ISO vs. RHP since 2018. DJ Lemahieu has been their hottest hitter over the past 30 days with a 196 wRC+. Besides DJ Lemahieu, all Yankees bats are available under $5k on Draftkings tonight.
Other tagged players: Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres Start of MIA-ATL will be delayed due to inclement weather Sunday
The start of the matchup between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Braves have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Dallas Keuchel o not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes that this contest will play through to conclusion following the initial delay.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter
Overlooked Pitcher Against A Watered Down Lineup
With a volatile Trent Thornton as the chalky cheap SP2 option on DK today, it may make sense to pivot elsewhere for leverage in GPPs and hope for his implosion. At $6700, Joe Musgrove is never a sexy option with his league average K rate, but he’s going to be facing a watered down Brewers lineup today without Christian Yelich that’s only sporting a 4.4 implied run total. GPP fields are typically overly cautious of playing righty pitchers against the Brewers lefty power bats, so I’d expect Musgrove to come in a good 3-4x less owned than Thornton with nearly as high of a salary-adjusted expectation.
Cleveland left-handed bats are in a good spot vs. Mahle in GABP
Tyler Mahle has been a decent pitcher this year, but given his extreme platoon splits (.365 xwOBA vs. lefties, .290 xwOBA vs. righties since 2018) it becomes clear which matchups to target him. Since 2018, Mahle has allowed a .379 OBP and .555 SLG to left-handed batters. The Indians will have 7 left-handed hitters out of 8 in their lineup tonight in Great American Ball Park, a great park for left-handed power. In addition, WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) projects an increase in home runs in what is already a homer-friendly park. Carlos Santana (.399 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, Jason Kipnis (.362), Francisco Lindor (.348), Tyler Naquin (.335), Jose Ramirez (.312), Jake Bauers (.305) and Greg Allen (.285) are all 7 lefties in the CLE order this afternoon. Allen hasn’t seen much success vs. RHP this year but is batting 2nd at just $3k on Draftkings. Kipnis, Bauers and Naquin are all $3.7k or less on DK. Jose Ramirez has a .339 xwOBA over the past 14 days as he’s looked much better at the plate compared to earlier in the year. He’ll bat 5th and cost $4.3k. Also working in the Indians’ favor is a hitter friendly ump in David Rackley. Cleveland currently has a 4.65 implied line vs. Mahle and the Reds.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Jakob Bauers, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis, Greg Allen This Position Is A Pay Down Spot Today
With the breadth of options available under $4k on DraftKings, it seems unlikely you should be paying up at second base in cash games or even GPPs. Jose Altuve ($3900) and Jason Kipnis ($3700) stand out the most having the platoon advantage over pitchers that give up excessive hard hit rates to that side of the plate. Although he’s batting at the bottom of the Cubs order, switch-hitting Robel Garcia ($2200) is dirt cheap facing contact-friendly Ivan Nova and could be viable in GPP lineup constructions that pay up at SP and OF.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis Wheeler in a nice spot at home vs. Phillies
Zack Wheeler has pitched better than his 4.42 ERA suggests; he’s also posted a 3.80 xFIP and 3.98 SIERA with a 25.5% K rate and 6.6% BB rate, just a 32.7% hard contact rate and a 45.3% GB rate. Wheeler has also allowed just a .302 xwOBA with a 7.3% barrel rate and 87.1 MPH aEV. Wheeler gets the start vs. Philly at home today, where he’s shown increased effectiveness: since 2018, Wheeler has a .276 xwOBA allowed and 3.18 FIP in home starts, compared to a .299 xwOBA and 3.61 FIP in away starts. The Phillies come into this game with a 92 wRC+ and 23% K rate vs. righties on the year, as well as a 95 wRC+ and 21.3% K rate over the past 30 days. With JT Realmuto projected to be out of the lineup this afternoon, the Phillies have just one batter (Bryce Harper) who has an xwOBA greater than .335 vs. RHP this year. Wheeler will also have the benefit of a pitcher-friendly umpire in Chris Guccione. Wheeler is fairly priced at $10.3k on Draftkings and $9.3k on Fanduel. The Phillies currently have a 4.00 implied line vs. Wheeler and the Mets today in Citi field.
Favorite One Off
Nelson Cruz is my favorite one off in tournaments. He gets Jose Leclerc who has struggled this year against righties, giving up a 62% fly ball rate and a 39% hard hit rate. Cruz this year against righties has a .266 ISO, .394 wOBA, and a 53.9% hard hit rate. This matchup really sets up nicely for Cruz, and with a lot of good outfielders on this slate to pay up for, hopefully he gets over looked.
Favorite Stack
On a nice 11 game slate Houston will definitely be the most popular spot to stack. One pivot I like is the Indians. The Indians have been one of the hottest offenses in the league, ranking 5th in both ISO and wOBA in the last month of the season. They get a matchup against Tyler Mahle who has really struggled against left handed bats, giving up a .260 ISO, .364 wOBA, 42% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate this season. The Indians have a bunch of lefties to throw at Mahle, but the main guys I like are Lindor, Santana, Kipnis, Ramirez in my stack.
Favorite Stack
On a nice 11 game slate Houston will definitely be the most popular spot to stack. One pivot I like is the Indians. The Indians have been one of the hottest offenses in the league, ranking 5th in both ISO and wOBA in the last month of the season. They get a matchup against Tyler Mahle who has really struggled against left handed bats, giving up a .260 ISO, .364 wOBA, 42% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate this season. The Indians have a bunch of lefties to throw at Mahle, but the main guys I like are Lindor, Santana, Kipnis, Ramirez in my stack.
Favorite Stack
On a nice 11 game slate Houston will definitely be the most popular spot to stack. One pivot I like is the Indians. The Indians have been one of the hottest offenses in the league, ranking 5th in both ISO and wOBA in the last month of the season. They get a matchup against Tyler Mahle who has really struggled against left handed bats, giving up a .260 ISO, .364 wOBA, 42% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate this season. The Indians have a bunch of lefties to throw at Mahle, but the main guys I like are Lindor, Santana, Kipnis, Ramirez in my stack.
Hot Braves lineup takes on struggling Trevor Richards at home
Overall, Trevor Richards has a 4.02 ERA that has been suppressed by pitching half his games in Marlins park; he also has a 5.25 xFIP, 5.05 SIERA on the year with a 41.3% hard contact rate, 10.8% K-BB and 43.5% FB rate. Richards has been even worse over the past 30 days with a 5.20 ERA, 5.25 xFIP and 5.30 SIERA with a 8.3% K-BB. The Marlins also have a 5th worst 4.56 bullpen SIERA over the past 30 days. The Braves come into this game with a 2nd best 121 wRC+ over the past 30 days and have a number of good options in their lineup at home vs. Richards and the Marlins. Freddie Freeman (.418 xwOBA vs. RHP), Ronald Acuna (.383), Josh Donaldson (.376), Nick Markakis (.370), Dansby Swanson (.369), Ozzie Albies (.344), Brian McCann (.342) and Austin Riley (.318) make up the 8 hitters in the ATL lineup and all are in play this afternoon. Donaldson and Markakis stand out as the best values as they are both below $4.5K on Draftkings while Acuna, Swanson, Freeman and Riley are all $5k or more. Acuna has been their hottest hitter with a .402 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Austin Riley (.227) has cooled down after his hot start to the year. The Braves currently have a healthy 5.66 implied total vs. Richards and the Marlins today in Atlanta.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Nick Markakis, Brian McCann, Dansby Swanson Risk Reward SP Option
James Paxton is a perfect GPP play on this slate. This is a very risky play, but Paxton is a talented pitcher who has been very up and down this season. Even with those struggles in the season he still has a 27.6% strikeout rate and a swinging strike rate of 13.6%. Then we get a good matchup against the Rays in one of the best pitchers ball parks in the league. The Rays this year against left handed pitching are 4th in strikeouts at 25.8%, 26th in ISO, and 21st in wOBA. There is definitely upside for Paxton in this matchup and with low ownership I like him for tournaments.