DFS Alerts
SP With A Great Matchup
David Price will be my guy at the top I spend up for today. He gets a very nice matchup against the Detroit Tigers who against left handed pitching this year are 6th in strikeouts at 25.3%, 24th in ISO, and 26th in wOBA. Price this season has a solid 28% strikeout rate, 12.4% swinging strike rate, and a walk rate of 6%. Hopefully with a bunch of options at the top we get Price in at lower ownership in tournaments.
Flaherty in a “get right” spot this afternoon vs. Giants in Oracle Park
Jack Flaherty is one of many pitchers that has been hurt by the juiced ball this year, as he jumped from a 1.19 HR/9 and 3.34 ERA in 2018 to a 1.90 HR/9 and 4.90 ERA in 2019. Flaherty has really had a rough time of late; over the past 30 days he’s been torched for a 7.82 ERA, though his 4.62 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA and 14.5% K-BB suggests that he hasn’t pitched as bad as the ERA suggests. Today’s matchup is a perfect opportunity to right the ship as Flaherty gets a nice matchup with a weak-hitting Giants team in pitcher’s haven Oracle Park. The one negative that immediately stands out in Flaherty’s profile is his home runs allowed, fortunately Oracle Park greatly suppresses home runs and the Giants do not have much home run pop in their lineup. On the year, the Giants have just an 82 wRC+ and 22.7% K Rate vs. right-handed pitchers with just a 2.9% HR rate. Flaherty is plenty affordable on slates that include the late afternoon games and makes for a good option in all contest types. The Giants currently have a 3.86 implied line vs. him and the Cardinals today.
Astros Urquidy is a great value arm even in matchup vs. Angels
Recent call up Jose Urquidy is an intriguing play as he is priced at just $6k on Draftkings and $5.6k on Fanduel. Over 44 innings in AAA this year, Urquidy posted a 2.89 ERA / 3.68 xFIP while striking out batters at an impressive 37% rate and walking only 5.8% of them. Projection systems seem unsure what to make of Urquidy as he did also post a high K rate (30%) over 30 innings in AA earlier this year, but has otherwise posted very mediocre strikeout rates throughout his MiLB career. His first MLB start only lasted 3 2/3 innings; he did show decent stuff and posted a 9.9% SwStr with a 22.2% K rate and allowed 2 earned runs. The Angels are no easy matchup, as they own a 111 wRC+ and just an 18.1% K rate so far this year vs. righties. Urquidy will have the benefit of a very good pitch framer in catcher Max Stassi, as well as a pitcher friendly umpire in Mike Estabrook. Certainly more of a GPP play, the hope is that Urquidy can prove that the newly found K rate he had in the minors this year is legit. If he can do that, he shouldn’t have a problem hitting value at his current prices. The Angels currently have a 4.4 implied line versus Urquidy an the ‘Stros this afternoon.
Lots of value and upside in Toronto lineup vs. Wojciechowski
Asher Wojciechowski only has 5 innings pitched this year, but over 84 innings pitched in the Majors he’s allowed a 6.64 ERA, 4.87 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA with a 15.2% K-BB and 1.82 HR/9 thanks in part to a 50% FB rate. Projection systems have him pegged as a 6+ ERA pitcher going forward. Not usually a high-powered offense, the Blue Jays have a whopping 6.14 implied total for this great matchup at home in the Rogers Centre. Justin Smoak (.428 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Cavan Biggio (.378), Lourdes Gurriel (.346), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.339), Eric Sogard (.321), Danny Jansen (.320), and Brandon Drury (.317) are all solid options in their projected lineup. With the exception of Gurriel ($5.5k on Draftkings) all Toronto bats will be priced at $4.7k or less on DK. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is just $3.8k and is projected to bat 2nd, Biggio is $4.7k projected to hit 4th, Jansen is just $3.8k projected 5th, Smoak is $4.1k projected 6th and Drury is $3.4k projected 7th. Jansen has been their hottest hitter with a scorching .486 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Gurriel with a .402 xwOBA. There are some great cash plays in this lineup and some GPP appeal as well.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Danny Jansen, Lourdes Gurriel, Cavan Biggio, Eric Sogard, Asher Wojciechowski Cheap Pitcher Against Subpar Offense
It feels weird to even consider Trent Thornton on this slate, but the price of $5,000 on DraftKings against an Orioles offense that ranks 12th in K% against right-handed pitching is appealing. Thorton has had some issues with home runs (1.42 HR/9) and walks (10.3 BB%), but his 23.2 K% is appealing given the price and matchup. Thorton has failed to reach 1 DraftKings point in his last two outings, but that was against the Red Sox and Yankees. He did face this Orioles team a few starts ago as well and underwhelmed there, so this isn’t a slam dunk by any means. If you really wanted to pay up for bats he’s the SP2 I would do it with it, but I think he profiles as a better GPP option than cash game target.
Cheap Rookie In Prime Spot
I’m really intrigued by Robel Garcia, who already has a triple and homer in his first three games. He hit 21 homers in just 72 games this season between Double-A and Triple-A, meaning there’s power here. He’s only $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,000 on FanDuel, making him a prime target in all formats (Yahoo has him at $16 which sucks the value out of him). If you don’t want to play someone like Jose Altuve at 2nd, Garcia is a fine punt play with upside here.
Not as Bad as the Numbers Appear
Look, this is a “plug your nose” SP #2 recommendation. There are SO many good offenses today that we have to consider punting at pitcher as a viable strategy, particularly on sites where you need to roster two pitchers. That’s where Thornton comes into the mix. He’s been terrible in his last two outings, but we can give him a bit of an excuse since those starts came against the Red Sox and Yankees. He is a fly ball pitcher that didn’t match up well at all with those two power-laden offenses. The matchup is better today against the Orioles, and Thornton is priced at the bottom of the barrel. He has average strikeout ability and enhanced upside against an underwhelming offense, and that’s enough to get him into a lot of my lineups today.
Great Matchup With Solid Upside
The Rangers are going to use Leclerc to open today, but he will be followed by Joe Palumbo. This makes things a bit tricky when it comes to targeting Minnesota bats, as Leclerc is a righty, while Palumbo is a lefty. Minnesota has quite a few players with drastic platoon splits. I’ll generally side with the players who are better against LHP, as Palumbo should pitch the bulk of the innings. That puts Nelson Cruz to the top of my wish list, while Marwin Gonzalez should hit 5th or 6th and carries a very reasonable price tag on every site. Both players make my core play group this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Marwin Gonzalez Elite First Base Play
It’s hard to parse out core plays on a slate that offers tons to love for bats, but I will opt for Rizzo as my top play. Ivan Nova has been terrible in 2019, with an ERA closing in on 6.00 and allowing a .386 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Rizzo should be able to take advantage, as he owns a .403 wOBA and .270 ISO against RHP this year. It’s a great matchup for Rizzo, and he and the Cubs should have a field day heading into the break.
The Best Ace on a Loaded Sunday Slate
It’s splitting hairs among the top pitchers today, but I will side with Aaron Nola as my favorite option, especially in cash games. Nola has made his rough start feel like a thing of the past at this point. Over has last three starts, he has allowed just one earned run over 23 innings with a 28/5 K/BB ratio in that span. His xFIP is down to 3.82 for the season, and one of those great recent starts came against the same Mets that he faces today. Fire Nola up with confidence right now, and look for him to enter the All Star break on a high note.
Mark Canha (back) scratched Saturday; Jurickson Profar replaces
Canha has been scratched from the Oakland Athletics original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to a back issue. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jurickson Profar, who will now play left field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Ramon Laureano and Chad Pinder up to fifth and sixth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Athletics lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Yusei Kikuchi on the road this evening.
As reported by: AthleticsPR via Twitter Other tagged players: Jurickson Profar
Start of PHI-NYM will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets on Saturday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Mets have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Noah Syndergaard not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this contest carries legitimate late postponement risk depending on the length of this initial weather delay.
As reported by: Zack Braziller via Twitter Astros have highest total on night slate versus struggling Heaney
Not usually a guy that we’d look to target, Heaney is a talented arm but has struggled since coming off the IL. This, combined with the fact that the night slate is stacked at SP, puts the Astros as the highest implied total tonight. Over the past month, Heaney has struggled to a 5.96 ERA, 5.72 xFIP and 5.15 SIERA with an uncharacteristic 12.5% BB rate. Heaney has been very susceptible to the long ball this year as he has a 53.3% FB rate and a 2.21 HR/9. Heaney is much more vulnerable to right-handed batters; since 2018, he’s allowed a .320 xwOBA to righties compared to a .268 xwOBA vs. lefties. The Astros will stack their lineup with 7 righties tonight: Jose Altuve (.450 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), George Springer (.444), Robinson Chirinos (.397), Alex Bregman (.377), Yuli Gurriel (.312), Jake Marisnick (.301) and Tyler White (.259) are all right-handed bats that are in play. Yordan Alvarez has a .516 xwOBA vs. LHP this year, though in just 18 PA; he’s a tough fade even given Heaney’s splits. Josh Reddick (.318) is also an option. The Astros currently have a 5.41 implied line for this matchup with the Angels.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Robinson Chirinos, Jake Marisnick, Yulieski Gurriel, Andrew Heaney Start of MIL-PIT will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Dario Agrazal not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this contest certainly carries at least some late postponement risk even though that doesn’t appear to be the likeliest outcome.
As reported by: John Perrotto via Twitter Start of BOS-DET will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Tigers have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Rick Porcello not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes that this contest will play through to conclusion following the initial delay.
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter