DFS Alerts
Mets offense a strong play on afternoon slate vs. Merril Kelly
The Mets will face Merrill Kelly in Chase Field and are an intriguing stack option on the afternoon slate. Kelly has been pretty bad this year with a 4.83 ERA / 5.03 xFIP / 5.14 SIERA and17.1% K rate with an 8.8% BB rate, and he’s shown no signs of improvement with a 5.52 xFIP, 5.71 SIERA, 14% K rate and 8% BB rate over the past 30 days. Kelly also has an ugly .373 xwOBA allowed on the year with an aEV of 89.2 MPH. Michael Conforto (.427 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Pete Alonso (.376), Dominic Smith (.362), Amed Rosario (.308) and Wilson Ramos (.300) are all solid options in the Mets’ lineup. Ramos has struggled a bit this year but owns a 111 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018. Dominic Smith has been the Mets’ hottest hitter with a .435 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Adeiny Hechavarria at .377. Mets’ batters will also have a very hitter-friendly umpire working in their favor with Sam Holbrook behind the plate. They currently have a 4.50 implied line vs. Kelly and the D-Backs Sunday afternoon.
Other tagged players: Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Amed Rosario, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, Merrill Kelly
Twins’ hot offense in a great spot vs. struggling Yarbrough
The Twins have a .360 xwOBA over the past 10 days, good for second in the league behind only the Dodgers. They’ll face Ryan Yarbrough, who has a rough 5.53 ERA / 4.61 xFIP 4.52 SIERA on the year with an 11.6 K-BB%. He’s been even worse since being recalled from AAA days with a 5.14 xFIP, 4.7 SIERA and just a 7 K-BB%. The Twins have a number of bats that are in play today without completely breaking the bank. CJ Cron (.406 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Jonathan Schoop (.400), Eddie Rosario (.388), Jorge Polanco (.373), and Willians Astudillo (.314) are all good options in the Twins’ projected order today. Rosario has been the Twins’ hottest bat with a .389 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Max Kepler with a .383 xwOBA. Cron looks like the best value as he’s projected to hit 3rd with just a $3.8k price tag on Draftkings. Astudillo is a solid option at the thin catcher position at just $3.1k.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Jonathan Schoop, Willians Astudillo, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario Power One Off
Marcell Ozuna is a bat I like a lot today in tournaments. Ozuna is another bat who has been hitting well. He gets the lefty Cole Hamels, who this season has given up a 45% hard hit rate to right-handed bats. Ozuna this year has a .240 ISO and a 61% fly ball rate against right-handed pitching. I will definitely be overweight on Ozuna today in tournaments.
Catching Fire
Anthony Rizzo has really started to come on. In the month of May, he is hitting a .355 AVG with 9 home runs and 24 RBIs. He gets a matchup with Adam Wainwright, who has really struggled against lefties this season. Wainwright is giving up a .296 ISO, .426 wOBA, and 47% hard hit rate to left-handed bats this season. This is a perfect spot for Rizzo to take advantage, and with his expensive price tag across most sites, I can’t see him being very highly owned.
Pivot Off Coors
With Coors being the most popular game to stack up, Kansas City is a perfect pivot. Adrian Sampson is one of the worst pitchers on the slate, and they will be playing in one of the best hitters ball parks. Sampson is a low strikeout pitcher and is giving up a 40% fly ball rate, and 47% hard hit rate. The Royals stack is expensive on DK, which should keep their ownership down in tournaments.
Value in Brewers lineup vs. Lyles today
The Brewers have a good matchup with Jordan Lyles in PNC Park today have a number of cheap options. Lyles has a decent 3.09 ERA, but a 3.99 xFIP, 4.15 SIERA and 88.9 aEV hint that Lyles hasn’t been quite as good as his ERA suggests. Lyles still projects as a roughy 4.5+ ERA pitcher heading forward by all the popular projection systems. With the exception of Christian Yelich, all Brewers bats can be had for $4.3k or less on Draftkings. Christian Yelich (.447 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $5.6k), Keston Hiura (.374, $3.6k), Yasmani Grandal (.332, $4.3k), Jesus Aguilar (.322, $2.9k), Ryan Braun (.319, $4k), and Lorenzo Cain (.314, $3.7k, likely leading off). Orlando Arcia has been the Brewers’ hottest hitter over the past 10 days with a .440 xwOBA and is just $3.3k on DK. The Pirates also have been on of the worst bullpens in the league over the past 30 days with a 5.85 ERA and 5.01 WHIP. The Brewers currently have a 4.5 implied total vs. Lyles and the Pirates.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Orlando Arcia, Yasmani Grandal, Jesus Aguilar, Keston Hiura, Jordan Lyles Pivot Off Coors
With Coors being the most popular game to stack up, Kansas City is a perfect pivot. Adrian Sampson is one of the worst pitchers on the slate, and they will be playing in one of the best hitters ball parks. Sampson is a low strikeout pitcher and is giving up a 40% fly ball rate, and 47% hard hit rate. The Royals stack is expensive on DK, which should keep their ownership down in tournaments.
Pivot Off Coors
With Coors being the most popular game to stack up, Kansas City is a perfect pivot. Adrian Sampson is one of the worst pitchers on the slate, and they will be playing in one of the best hitters ball parks. Sampson is a low strikeout pitcher and is giving up a 40% fly ball rate, and 47% hard hit rate. The Royals stack is expensive on DK, which should keep their ownership down in tournaments.
Too Cheap To Pass Up
The rookie Zack Plesac had a solid showing against the Red Sox where he went five innings, giving up only one run on four hits. Plesac gets the White Sox, which is a much more friendly matchup to pitchers. In the month of May, the White Sox had the highest strikeout rate in the league at 27.7%, 29th ISO, and 27th wOBA. Plesac really helps you fit in all the big bats, and if he can get his strikeout numbers up, he could really out perform his cheap price tag.
Lucas Giolito has a 30% K rate, 6% BB rate and 3.53 xFIP over the past 30 days
Lucas Giolito has made some notable adjustments to his repertoire and it has shown in his results; he’s completely ditched his sinker and is using his four seamer, change and slider a bit more. He’s also shown less usage of his curve of late, which has been by far his worst pitch with a .481 xwOBA on the year. Giolito’s change, four seamer and slider all have an xwOBA allowed under .305 on the year. So far in 2019 Giolito has pitched to a solid 2.85 ERA / 3.82 xFIP / 3.75 SIERA with just a 32.9% hard contact rate and a 12.8% SwStr, all huge improvements from last year. He’s shown no signs of slowing down with a solid 30% K rate, 6% BB rate and solid 3.53 xFIP over the past 30 days. Today he matches up at home with the Indians who have been pretty bad with an 83 wRC+ and 23.2% K rate on the year vs. RHP. Cleveland also has a below average .320 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Giolito will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly ump in CB Bucknor. The Indians currently have a 3.94 implied line versus Giolito and the White Sox Sunday.
Elite Power Upside
The Cubs don’t have a ton of lefty bats in their lineup, but this is a fine spot for Kyle Schwarber. He brings plenty of power upside to the leadoff spot for the Cubs, he could be staring at five at bats today, and he matches up very well with a low strikeout RHP in Adam Wainwright. The St. Louis starter has allowed a whopping .409 wOBA to LHBs so far in 2019 and has struggled with lefties for three seasons now. Schwarber isn’t overly expensive and makes for a great mid-range play in all formats.
Top Play on the FanDuel Slate
The top overall bat is entirely site-dependent today, since FanDuel is excluding KC/TEX and TOR/COL from their main slate. On FD, with fewer options to choose from, I will opt for Christian Yelich as my top play. He draws a fine matchup against a low strikeout RHP in Jordan Lyles, and Yelich continues to post otherworldly numbers with a .484 wOBA, .450 ISO, and 1.240 OPS against RHP this year. Keep rolling with him in a favorable matchup.
If It's Not Broken, Don't Fix It
The Rockies have been smashing the ball on their current home stand, and this is a classic case of not fixing something that isn’t broken. If you have been fading Arenado and Story this week, it hasn’t been good for your bankroll. The Rockies are in a prime spot for a breakout again today against Aaron Sanchez, who has been banged up of late and isn’t a high strikeout arm. The Rockies have an implied team total of well over six runs this afternoon, and you need to get some exposure here. I’ve tagged Story as the top play because he has SS eligibility and I’ve already tagged Guerrero at 3B, but you can’t go wrong with this lineup.
Too Cheap on DK/FDRAFT
On DK/FDRAFT, I will opt for Vladimir Guerrero as the best point per dollar option on the offensive side of things this afternoon. He has looked more comfortable at the plate in recent games, hits in a prime lineup spot in a great hitting environment at Coors Field, and he remains cheaper than the other stud bats in that game. We know the power and long-term potential are there, and he has a nice combination of safety and upside this afternoon.
A Great Value Arm
Plesac doesn’t profile as an elite prospect, but he posted fantastic numbers between Double-A and Triple-A this season with a 1.41 ERA combined between both levels. He also sports generally elite command, and he acquainted himself well to the MLB level with a decent debut against the Red Sox with one run allowed over 5 1/3 innings. Today’s matchup is much more favorable against a White Sox team that ranks 21st in team wOBA and has the third highest strikeout rate against RHP this year. Plesac is an elite SP #2 choice on multi-pitcher sites and makes sense if you need to punt on FanDuel as well.