DFS Alerts
Sunday Ace
Even though Scherzer has been slightly more uneven with his production this year, his potential is unrivaled on this Sunday slate. RotoGrinders projections have him listed as the top arm of the afternoon by a fairly wide margin, and the matchup is a fine one against a Reds team that ranks just 22nd in the league in wOBA against RHP this year. Scherzer has been unlucky this year with a .359 opposing BABIP that feels very fluky, as his 32% strikeout rate, 3.10 SIERA, and 2.99 xFIP remain elite. Fire him up with confidence today.
Javier Baez (heel) scratched Saturday; Addison Russell replaces
Baez has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to the lingering effects of a right heel bruise. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Addison Russell, who will now play shortstop and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward up to fourth and fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Cubs lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jack Flaherty on the road this evening.
As reported by: Jordan Bastian via Twitter Other tagged players: Addison Russell
Flaherty is a good SP2 option on Draftkings tonight
Jack Flaherty hasn’t quite taken the step forward some thought he might have in 2019, but he’s been very solid with a 3.77 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 4.00 SIERA with a 26.4% K rate and 8.1% BB rate. Statcast likes him as he has just a .300 xwOBA allowed, 7.5% barrel rate and just an 86.2 aEV on the year. Flaherty gets a matchup tonight at home versus the Cubs; he’s pitched much better at home in his career with a .274 xwOBA allowed at home compared to a .304 xwOBA allowed on the road. The Cubs are no easy matchup as they have a 112 wRC+ vs. RHP so far this year and have a .330 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past month. However, Flaherty will have the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Mike Estabrook and is very cheap on Draftkings with a price of just $7.2k. He projects as one of the best Pts/$ on the board tonight and it makes sense to pair him with any of the higher priced aces tonight on Draftkings.
Dodgers’ bats offer some salary relief on a slate with many expensive SP options
There are a number of top-tier SP options crammed into the night slate tonight. One place we can look to find some affordable bats to pair with these starters is the Dodger’s lineup, where LAD carries a 5.18 total versus projected opener Jose Alvarez and projected long-reliever Cole Irvin. Irvin has a 5.08 xFIP on the year in 17 2/3 innings and is projected as a roughly 5.25 ERA pitcher by most projection systems. Kike Hernandez will likely leadoff for the Dodgers and is just $3.7k on Draftkings; he has a solid 118 wRC+ and .191 ISO vs. LHP since 2018. Justin Turner is projected to bat 2nd with a $4.2k price tag and a 150 wRC+ / .234 ISO vs. LHP since ’18. David Freese ($3.9k, 138 wRC+, .175 ISO) and Chris Taylor ($3.5k, 112 wRC+, .209 ISO) are also great options that project to bat in the top-5 of the LAD order. Max Muncy may hit lower in the order, but has been good versus LHP as well with a 135 wRC+ and .274 ISO since ’18 but comes with a $4.6k price tag. All of the aforementioned batters have an xwOBA greater than .370 over the past 10 days.
Other tagged players: Cole Irvin, Justin Turner, David Freese, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor Angels bats are a good stack option vs. Tommy Milone
In two starts so far in 2019, Milone has pitched to a solid 3.38 ERA / 3.24 xFIP and 11 K/9. However, Milone hasn’t put up a respectable season since 2015 and still projects as a roughly 5 ERA pitcher by most projection systems. He also had a 5.49 xFIP in 49 innings at the AAA level this year and is still averaging 88 MPH on his fastball. Mike Trout (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Albert Pujols (.395), Kole Calhoun (.355), David Fletcher (.353), Tommy La Stella (.345), Shohei Ohtani (.344) and Jonathan Lucroy (.333) have all been above average vs. LHP this year and are projected to be in the LAA lineup. Cesar Puello has been the Angels’ hottest hitter with a .559 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Angels have a 4.63 implied line vs. Milone and the Angels, which feels a tad low.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Jonathan Lucroy, Tommy Milone, Cesar Puello, Albert Pujols, David Fletcher, Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun Lance Lynn has 3.5 SIERA and 27% K rate over the past 30 days
Lance Lynn gets a matchup at home this afternoon with the Royals, who come into today’s game with a league average 99 wRC+ and a 21.8% K rate vs. RHP this year. Lynn started off the year rough and has a 4.66 ERA / 4.11 xFIP / 4.19 SIERA with a 16.4% K-BB. However, he’s seemingly turned it around over the past 30 days with a 3.5 SIERA, 3.87 xFIP and a 27% K rate versus an 8% BB rate. He also has just a .292 xwOBA and an 83.3 aEV over the past 30 days. Lynn famously has a very wide platoon split, since 2018 he has given up just a .297 xwOBA to righties versus a .328 xwOBA allowed versus lefties. Lynn will face 5 left-handed bats in the Royals lineup this afternoon, but fortunately only one of them (Alex Gordon) has an xwOBA greater than .330 vs. RHP in 2019. Lynn will also have the benefit of a great pitch framer in Jeff Mathis, as well as a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Ryan Blakney. Lynn’s price (over $9k on both FD and DK) has certainly caught up quickly with is recent success, but he’s still worth a look if you want to differentiate on this afternoon slate.
Lots of value in SFG lineup vs. Hess
The Giants haven’t been a good offense this year, but they are priced incredibly low for a nice matchup versus David Hess and they get a park upgrade going from Oracle to Camden Yards. Hess has a 6.71 ERA / 5.69 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 52.8% FB rate, 11.1% K-BB and just an 8.4% SwStr. He also has a .404 xwOBA allowed, 16% barrel rate and 91.4% aEV, all among the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Brandon Belt (.376 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4k on DK), Pablo Sandoval (.373, $4.1k), Buster Posey (.363, $3.2k), Joe Panik (.334, $3.6k), Brandon Crawford (.320, $3.2k) and Evan Longoria (.318, $3.8k) are all great value options in the Giants’ order. Mike Yastrzemski (.257, $3.5k) will bat 2nd and had a 160 wRC+ in AAA this year before getting called up. The Orioles have a 5.6 implied line vs. Hess and will likely be very highly-owned on this slate in all formats given the bargain prices and high total.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Evan Longoria, David Hess, Mike Yastrzemski Woodruff a great option on the afternoon slate
It looks like there are two arms worth paying up for on the early slate: Brandon Woodruff and Mike Soroka. I would lean Woodruff, who has been a borderline ace in a breakout 2019 thus far. Woodruff has a 3.22 ERA / 3.50 xFIP / 3.54 SIERA with a 29.6% K rate compared to a 6.6% BB rate so far in 2019. He’s shown no signs of slowing down with a 3.26 xFIP, 3.28 SIERA, 31% K rate and 6% BB rate over the past 30 days. Woodruff also has impressive Statcast numbers: .294 xwOBA allowed, 4.9% barrel rate and an 86.7 aEV. This afternoon he gets a matchup in Pittsburgh against the Pirates, where he’ll get a nice park upgrade going from Miller Park to PNC. The Pirates have a slightly below average 93 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year with a 20.6% K rate. They will have just 3 batters in their lineup with an xwOBA > .330 vs. RHP in 2019 (Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Adam Frazier). Woodruff will also have the benefit of a great pitch framer in Yasmani Grandal, as well as a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Phil Cuzzi. The Pirates have a 4.02 implied line vs. Woodruff and the Brewers this afternoon.
Elite Power Bat
I really like Alex Bregman a lot tonight in tournaments. Arenado will obviously be the chalk, but Bregman is in a really good spot against the lefty Brett Anderson. Anderson is a low strikeout pitcher who gives up a 44% hard hit rate to right handed bats. Bregman this year has .250 ISO, 56% fly ball rate, and a 51% hard hit rate against left handed pitching. We should see a lower ownership on Bregman, so I do prefer him as my tournament pivot off of Arenado on DraftKings and Story on FanDuel.
Sneaky One Off
If you want a really low-owned one off, I think Rhys Hoskins is your guy. Hoskins faces Kershaw, whom people really won’t want to pick on, but this year Kershaw’s hard contact, wOBA, ISO have all gone up against right-handed bats. In Kershaw’s last 5 games, he has given up 6 home runs, all to righties. Hoskins against left-handed pitching this year has a .289 ISO, .446 wOBA, and a 46% hard hit rate. I especially love his price on DraftKings at $4,200, which is just way too cheap and he should be around 5% owned.
Shaking Off The Rust
Andrew Heaney will be a very sneaky tournament play today. Coming off that elbow injury, he was pretty effective in his first start, going 5 innings and giving up 2 earned runs while striking out 8. The worry is that he only threw 85 pitches, but hopefully they will let him go a little into the game. If you look at the Mariners in the month of May, they have really struggled at the plate, with the 3rd highest strikeout rate at 26.1%, and being 23rd in wOBA. If they extend Heaney’s leash a little I see a lot of upside at a low ownership.
Risk Reward SP
I like taking a shot with Jon Gray in tournaments. This game will be played in Coors, which should keep Gray’s ownership down, and he is pretty cheap across most sites. Gray gets the Blue Jays, who have struggled against right-handed pitching this season with the 4th highest strikeout rate and are 27th in wOBA. Gray has had 7+ strikeouts in four out of his last five outings, and it should help that Toronto loses their DH bat. Taking a pitcher in Coors is always risky, but Gray has some upside in this matchup at his price.
High-Priced Priority
Figuring out which high-priced bats to prioritize on Saturday night is ultimately going to decide the night’s winners. While Rockies bats have the better context, Mike Trout is the better hitter and has the better matchup. Tommy Millone has been good through two starts for the Mariners but will have his hands full with Trout who is the owner of a ridiculous 162 wRC+ and .239 ISO against left-handed pitching for his career.
High End Discount
Early projections have Justin Verlander as Saturday’s top option but Jacob deGrom comes at a $2K+ discount from the Astros ace. deGrom has been a bit of a rollercoaster this season but his underlying stats are strong, including a 29% strikeout rate and 14.5% whiff rate. The Diamondbacks are a neutral matchup for deGrom but haven’t been as potent against right-handed pitching this season with a below average 90 wRC+.
An Affordable, Dangerous Offense
The loaded Dodgers lineup is facing rookie Cole Irvin, who has managed just 13 strikeouts in 17 innings and a 5.60 ERA in his first three career starts. Even in the minors, he was a below average strikeout pitcher, with low walks being his only asset. The LA lineup is too good to think he can survive with nothing more than control. Enrique Hernandez has a .209 ISO with 49% hard hits against lefties this season and going back to the bigger sample size since 2018 he has struck out just 17% against lefties.
