DFS Alerts
Chris Sale has looked like his old self, gets decent match-up vs. Yankees tonight
Over the past 30 days, Chris Sale has a 2.6 SIERA / 2.19 xFIP with a 44% K rate and 6% BB rate. He’s consistently sat 93-94 MPH with his fastball over his last 5 starts, and his early season struggles seem to be a thing of the past. On the year, he as a 4.19 ERA but a 3.46 xFIP and 3.12 SIERA with a 33.7% K rate and 6.9% BB rate. The Yankees have just an 81 wRC+ and an ugly 27.2% K rate vs. LHP on the year and are still missing some of their best hitters. Somehow, the Yankees are have a 4.48 implied run line, which feels too high given the state of their lineup and that they’re facing Sale, even in a hitter’s park at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have just 3 batters in their projected lineup who have an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .300 on the year (Voit, Sanchez, Lemahieu). Sale comes with a slight discount thanks to his early season struggles, as he’s available for $10.8k on Draftkings and $11.2k on Fanduel.
Chris Archer has posted a -1.4 K-BB% since returning from the IL
Chris Archer has returned from the IL to allow 15 runs in 13.2 IP this month and post a -1.4 K-BB%. While his velocity is up slightly relative to April, it’s still down from last season. There may still be something going on here, but what’s not going on is quality pitching. For the season, his ERA meets all of his estimators above five (all are above six in May). The one area of improvement is an 86.2 mph aEV, but he’s still generated 9.2% Barrels/BBE with a .360 xwOBA (.366 last 30 days). With six teams currently projected above five runs tonight, perhaps Milwaukee bats fall off the radar at 4.85 runs (seventh). While xwOBA exhibits just an eight point split for Archer over the last 12 months, but actual results, LHBs have a .354 wOBA against him. Christian Yelich (188 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) needs to be seriously considered if his high price tag is going to price him out of most lineups. Mike Moustakas (110 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (127 wRC+, .242 ISO) each exceed a 180 wRC+ and 40% hard hit rate over the last month. Ben Gamel (108 wRC+, .135 ISO) would be an interesting value play out of the leadoff spot, should he appear there again. He’s second on the team with a 64.3 Hard% over the last seven days (10 PA min.).
Other tagged players: Chris Archer, Mike Moustakas, Ben Gamel, Yasmani Grandal
BOS-NYY postponed due to rain Thursday
The game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees on Thursday evening has been postponed due to forecasted severe weather throughout the remainder of the day and evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, August 3 at 7:00 pm EST as part of a day-night, split-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Thursday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Bryan Hoch via Twitter
Carlos Carrasco's 14.2 SwStr% is tied for highest on the board
Carlos Carrasco has a 25.2 K-BB% that trails only Chris Sale tonight, while his 14.2 SwStr% actually ties him for the top mark on the board. Carrasco has had an issue with hard contact. His 90.9 mph aEV, 14.1% Barrels/BBE and 47.2% 95+ mph EV are all worst on the slate tonight and none of those marks are even particularly close to any other pitchers, but perhaps that’s why he’s only the fifth most expensive pitcher on DraftKings tonight in a high upside spot. The White Sox exceed a 25% strikeout rate at home (25.8%), vs RHP (26.8%) and over the last week (27.2%). Right in line with that, Carrasco has struck out 12 of 43 White Sox (27.9%) he’s faced this year. If he can up that just a bit to 30-35% tonight, he’ll merely need to be a competent contact manager to pay large dividends. There’s certainly some risk that hard contact will do him in, but this is actually a run environment upgrade for Carrasco and he matches or surpasses the upside of any other pitcher in a similar price range tonight.
Jakob Junis has allowed multiple HRs in three of five road starts
Playing the part of tonight’s only extremely positive run environment (especially with Yankee Stadium in question) will be Texas tonight and Jakob Junis would be the obvious pitcher to attack tonight. He’s allowed seven HRs over five road starts, including multiple HRs in three of them. His strikeout rate (19.9%) has dipped below league average, but Junis is still being tagged pretty well upon contact (89.5 mph aEV, 9.4% Barrels/BBE, 41.7% 95+ mph EV, 29.2 Hard-Soft%). His .366 xwOBA over the last month is behind only Manny Baneulos tonight (.411). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Junis over the last 12 months, along with a 42% hard hit rate. On the other side, among the first projected eight batters for the Rangers, only Elvis Andrus (80 wRC+, .112 ISO) and Nomar Mazara (90 wRC+, .149 ISO) are below a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Joey Gallo (135 wRC+, .316 ISO, 55.4 Hard%) is the high upside guy in an expensive lineup. Shin-Soo Choo (148 wRC+, .236 ISO, 46 Hard%) is the most well-rounded bat. The Rangers are tied with the Dodgers at the top of the board at 5.5 implied runs tonight.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Jakob Junis, Elvis Andrus, Manny Banuelos, Nomar Mazara Joe Musgrove has a 35.5 LOB%, 3.87 FIP and .307 xwOBA over the last month
Joe Musgrove has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts, a span over which he has a 12.7 K% and 5.60 SIERA, but a very reasonable 3.87 FIP and .307 xwOBA. He’s only allowed one HR in this span (3.8 HR/FB). The main culprit has been a ridiculous 35.5 LOB%. His 4.4% Barrels/BBE on the season is the lowest on the board. Musgrove isn’t getting hammered, his walk rate is a bit higher over this rough patch, but still in single digits, and his 8.4 SwStr% isn’t that bad. When the strand rate is the worst thing you can find on a pitcher, it’s quite encouraging. Look for some bounce back sooner rather than later. The Brewers are a league average offense (99 wRC+ vs RHP) with a ton of power (19.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but again, that’s not Musgrove’s problem at all. The Brewers do have some strikeouts in them too (25.6% vs RHP) and this is where Musgrove picks up some value as a cheap secondary arm on DraftKings ($6K). He’s likely the best cheap arm to pair with your Ryu, Sale, Morton, or Carrasco tonight.
Don't Forget The Other Side
The Rangers are likely to be the chalky offense tonight and for good reason. But their opponents have the same great hitting environment on a hot night in Texas. Mike Minor is a very good pitcher, but there is nothing too far beyond average against right-handed batters. He throws a lot of strikes, and has shown no ability to limit hard contact or fly balls. While there is a lot of red in the Royals PlateIQ dashboard against lefties this season, there are two numbers that stick out to me. It is the 59% hard hit rate of Hunter Dozier and the 41% hard hit rate of Jorge Soler against lefties. Dozier in particular looks to have had just worse luck against lefties with similar skills as he’s shown against righties. There is also the prospect of a bad Texas bullpen adding to the upside of these Royals bats tonight.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler
Elite Skills Under The Surface
A few bad starts and a .340 BABIP have saddled Carlos Carrasco with a 4.60 ERA so far this season. While he’ll always be a little susceptible to hard hits with all the strikes he throws, his K:BB skills are some of the best in the league and he looks like the same pitcher he’s been the past several seasons. His 29.3% K and 4.1% BB should allow him to catch up to his 3.27 SIERA and facing a White Sox team with the 3rd highest strikeout rate in the league against righties should help get him there. Eight of the nine batters in the projected lineup for Chicago have a strikeout rate above 23% against righties this season giving Carrasco huge upside at a fair price.
Late Night Lefties
The Angels’ Felix Pena has been solid this season and has become a better pitcher against lefties, at least in terms of strikeouts. But he is still allowing a tremendous amount of fly balls and hard contact with 50% FB and 43% HH this season leading to a .198 ISO against. The Angels also have an all right-handed bullpen which will keep the Mariners lefty bats with the platoon advantage all night. Dan Vogelbach is a high end tournament play on his own or as part of Mariners stacks with his huge .377 ISO and having hit a homer every 9.7 AB this year against righties. Jay Bruce has averaged a HR every 13.7 AB against righties, while Omar Narvaez is one of my favorite catcher options tonight with his solid contact and 26% line drives.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Omar Narvaez Wild Wild West
There won’t be anything sneaky about the Dodgers tonight, but we can hope that the Texas game steals more of the ownership on this slate. The Mets’ Jason Vargas has an awful 5.22 ERA and 5.49 SIERA with just 17% K and 11% BB this season and after the Dodgers put up 9 runs and 15 hits against Syndergaard, Diaz and company last night, it’s hard to imagine Vargas surviving here. The obvious plays will be the cheaper right-handed bats like Enrique Hernandez, but Vargas has been just as beatable against lefties, allowing 38% hard hits and 37% fly balls with just 18.4% K over the past two seasons. Don’t ignore the left-handed Dodgers in your stacks, notably Cody Bellinger with his .323 ISO so far this season against LHP. Chris Taylor finds himself in the leadoff spot tonight, giving us some more value with this Dodgers stack.
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor Smash Spot
Even though I always consider Gallo a better investment in GPP formats compared to cash games, I’ll make an exception tonight and target him as a core option in all formats. This is an absolute smash spot for him against a home run prone pitcher with control problems. Throw in the great hitting environment in Arlington and the Rangers owning a 5 1/2 run implied team total, and all the makings are there for a huge game. Don’t be surprised if Gallo reaches base via a few walks and a long ball tonight against Jakob Junis, and Gallo is my priority spend up option on the slate.
Ready to Thrive in the Leadoff Spot
Mallex Smith has moved to the leadoff spot for the Mariners over the last few games, and the early returns are encouraging. He has reached base nine times over the last three games, and he has stolen four bases in those contests. He’s always been an aggressive player, and I like him as an affordable DFS option at his current price, as long as he remains in that leadoff spot. The Mariners have a solid matchup tonight against a weak portion of the Angels’ pitching staff, and Smith will be a core value for me if he continues to lead off.
Still The Top Choice
The Yankees are getting healthier and do have a good bit of power in their lineup, but this is still a matchup where Chris Sale can excel. The Yankees are still missing two of their power-hitting lefty mashers in Judge and Stanton, and Sale has turned a corner this month with elite numbers in every start except his last outing against Houston. His overall profile remains elite with a 34% strikeout rate, a 3.11 SIERA, and a respectable batted ball profile. He’s still fooling hitters with a 14%+ swinging strike rate, and his upside is clearly the highest on the board. If ownership is down because of the matchup, that only serves to increase my interest in GPP formats, too.
Fantastic Spot
Francisco Lindor is finally starting to heat up. The Indians have been a major disappointment this year, but the high upside shortstop has hits in 20 of his last 23 games and has reached base 11 times over the team’s last four contests. He’s clearly locked in at the plate right now and has turned a corner in May, and he draws a fantastic matchup tonight against a struggling young lefty in Manny Banuelos. Lindor owns a .368 wOBA against LHP for his career, and Banuelos is currently sporting an ERA over 7.00 and a bloated 14% walk rate. Lindor should be able to reach base multiple times tonight, giving him a nice combination of safety and upside.
Nice Hard To Soft Contact Ratio
I don’t like a lot of cheap pitchers on this slate, but I do like this spot for Kikuchi. He’s coming off a rough start in his last outing but faces an Angels team that has struggled with left-handed pitching. They don’t have a lot of more against lefties, but they also don’t strikeout a lot. Kikuchi has a .317 wOBA with a .168 ISO and an 8.1% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters this season. With the limited power In this lineup and the soft contact generated by Kikuchi, I could see him pitching six good innings in this spot.
