DFS Alerts
Best Stack outside Of Coors
The Twins are the best stack outside of Coors today, facing the righty Dylan Covey. Covey has really struggled this season, especially with his control, giving up 24 walks in his 4 starts this season. He gets a matchup against one of the hottest teams in baseball. In the last month, the Twins are leading the Majors in ISO, wOBA and home runs hit. This stack will come in lower owned than you think because of how expensive the Twins’ price tags are. I will be targeting Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Castro in my stacks.
Contrarian Mid Tier Pitcher
I think Jake Odorizzi in tournaments is good pivot off the Zack Wheeler chalk. Odorizzi faces the Chicago White Sox who, over the last month, has the highest strikeout rate in the majors to right handed pitching at 27.6%. Odorizzi has a 24% strikeout rate and a 11% swinging strike rate, which is good enough against this free swinging White Sox team. I think his ownership will be lower than it should be, so I do like this play in GPPs.
Too Cheap With Upside
Brandon Woodruff is just way under-priced on DraftKings today at $6,600, so this is definitely more of a site specific play. Two starts ago he faced this same Phillies team and went 6 innings, giving up only one hit while striking out 5 batters. Woodruff’s struggles have come more against left-handed batters, but the Phillies only have one real dangerous lefty bat in Bryce Harper. Woodruff has the strikeout upside we are looking for, with a 27% strikeout rate. I will be overweight on Woodruff in tournaments today on DraftKings.
Turnbull a cheap SP option with a good matchup vs. NYM
Spencer Turnbull has been decent this year with a 2.69 ERA / 4.54 xFIP / 4.28 SIERA with a 23% K rate and 9.4% BB rate. He’s done a decent job limiting hard contact with a 34% hard compared to a 16.3% soft, and he’s got a 45% GB rate compared to just a 35.1% FB rate with a solid 11.7% SwStr. His Statcast data is decent as well, with a .327 xwOBA allowed and a 7.8% barrel rate. Turnbull has been MUCH better vs. right-handed batters since debuting in 2018, he has a .289 xwOBA allowed and a 26.8% K rate vs. RHB compared to a .357 xwOBA allowed and just an 18.5% K rate vs. LHB. Fortunately, the Mets have 7 right-handed bats in their starting lineup which will play to Turnbull’s advantage. The Mets have been below average on the year with just a 95 wRC+ and 23.5 % K rate vs. RHP an they are missing Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano and Jeff McNeil, three of their better bats versus RHP. The Mets have a 4.23 implied line vs. Turnbull in spacious Citi Field today. Turnbull is just $6.9k on Draftkings and doesn’t need to do anything crazy to hit value in what seems to be a great matchup for him this afternoon.
Rays a sneaky stack option vs. struggling Bauer
Trevor Bauer currently has the highest xFIP (4.46), SIERA (4.35), BB/9 (4.46), and hard contact % (41.3) of his career (excluding seasons where he had less than 20 IP). He’s gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on, yielding a .365 xwOBA allowed with a 5.45 ERA, 5.34 xFIP, 13.3% BB rate and 46% hard contact rate over the past 30 days. The Rays have a 5th ranked 115 wRC+ vs. RHP this year yet surprisingly have just a 4.11 implied total versus a scuffling Bauer. Tommy Pham (.408 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Austin Meadows (.404), Avisail Garcia (.397), Ji-Man Choi (.359) and Brandon Lowe (.358) will be in the top 5 of Tampa Bay’s order and are all good options that have mashed RHP so far this year. Ji-Man Choi might be the best value, batting 3rd at just $3.7k on Draftkings. Garcia has the hottest bat of any Ray with a .478 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Willy Adames has a decent .315 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year and will bat 6th at just $3.8k.
Other tagged players: Austin Meadows, Trevor Bauer, Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames Better Than The Surface Data Shows
While Zack Wheeler has underwhelming surface numbers, when you peel back the layers to see his advanced metrics, he looks like a pretty good pitcher. His SIERA and xFIP are both under 4.00, and he carries a solid 26% strikeout rate this season. He also draws a favorable matchup today against a Tigers offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. The Mets also need innings from Wheeler after a long extra inning game on Saturday. The matchup combined with his likely extended leash today make Wheeler a great option in all formats.
An Underappreciated Elite Arm
Caleb Smith continues to get overlooked nationally because he pitches for the woeful Marlins, but Caleb Smith has been absolutely fantastic this season. He has hit at least 30 FanDuel points and 18 DraftKings points in every single start in 2019, which is an impressive floor for a young pitcher. His 35.5% strikeout rate ranks third in the league behind only Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell. That’s impressive company. Throw in a SIERA and xFIP under 3.00 and a matchup against an inconsistent Washington offense, and you have the top pitcher on the slate when you consider that Justin Verlander has to face the Red Sox today.
This Team Is In Another Elite Spot
On FanDuel and FantasyDraft, where you can’t play the BAL/COL game on the main slate, someone from the Twins has to be considered your top bat. It’s a close call between all their top options, and the team is most certainly stackable in GPP formats but I will side with Jorge Polanco given his .445 wOBA and impressive .302 ISO against RHP so far this season. I’ve also tagged Max Kepler as a core play, as his numbers aren’t that far behind Polanco and he’s also easily fittable this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Max Kepler Top Option On The Board
The top play is site dependent today. You absolutely have to roll some Colorado bats on DK today, as they have a home date against a poor pitcher with a fly ball lean in David Hess. Hess is an awful fit for Coors Field (and really for any park in general). I’ll opt for Nolan Arenado as my top Colorado option because he is absolutely locked in right now with five straight multi-hit games. I also like David Dahl a lot given the fact that he has power upside and a more reasonable price tag.
Stud Rookie In Prime Spot
Rookie Chris Paddack faces a Blue Jays team that ranks 7th in strikeout rate, and among the bottom third of the league in team wOBA and ISO. I will point out that the Blue Jays made a flurry of moves on Friday, bringing up top prospect Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel. In theory that should help this Blue Jays lineup as both players had strikeout rates at 18% or less in Triple-A this season, although we don’t know how Biggio will adjust to the Majors while Gurriel had a rough 27.3% strikeout rate in the Majors earlier this season before getting sent down. Paddack is someone I love in all formats given this matchup and his current form. He doesn’t always go deep into games as he hasn’t topped 92 pitches in a game this season, but there is massive upside here. I lean Zack Wheeler as my top cash game option, but Chris Paddack is right there if you want to pay up for the higher strikeout upside.
Discounted Stud Facing Strikeout-Heavy Offense
Factoring in the matchups, Zack Wheeler starts to stand out. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 4th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and that ranks second to last in both team wOBA and ISO. On paper, this is a really favorable matchup for him and he’s priced down relative to the other pitchers on this slate. Wheeler has been fantastic this season, limiting home runs (0.86 HR/9) and hard hits (29.4% hard hit rate). While there are a lot of top-end options to pay up for, I love the idea of rostering Wheeler as a cash game SP1.
Start of LAD-PIT will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Joe Musgrove and Kenta Maeda not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through without a hitch upon the conclusion of the initial delay.
As reported by: Jorge Castillo via Twitter
Peacock is a good GPP play on the night slate despite matchup with Red Sox
A matchup with the Red Sox might scare some people off, but Boston’s lineup without JD Martinez and with 2 weak-hitting catchers in the order isn’t too terrifying. Peacock has been solid this year with a 3.59 ERA / 4.14 xFIP / 3.89 SIERA with a 25.6% K rate and 7.2% BB rate. More impressively, Statcast has him at just a .267 xwOBA allowed with a tiny 5.5% barrel rate. Peacock will be pitching at home where he has performed much better since 2018, with just a .263 xwOBA allowed and 32.3% K rate at home versus a .294 xwOBA allowed and 29.8% K rate on the road. Even with JD Martinez out of the order, the Red Sox still have a decent order that is plenty capable of blowing up. The night slate is pretty dry for pitching options, however, and Peacock has decent upside given the solid K rate without breaking the bank at $9k on Draftkings just $8.1k on Fanduel. The Red Sox have a 4.02 implied total vs. Peacock and the Astros.
Start of TBR-CLE will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Indians on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Indians have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Carlos Carrasco not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through upon the conclusion of the initial delay.
As reported by: Marc Topkin via Twitter Orioles seem underrated again today despite being in Coors
The Orioles face Kyle Freeland today in Coors field in what looks to be a great spot. Freeland has not been nearly as effective as he was in his breakout 2018; he currently has a 6.02 ERA / 5.23 xFIP / 5.00 SIERA, all three numbers are much higher than they were in 2018. His hard contact is up 12 percentage points to 43.6% and his FB rate has risen 5 points to 40.2%. He also has an ugly .364 xwOBA allowed with a 89.2 aEV and 10.3% barrel rate. Hanser Alberto (161wRC+, .172 ISO vs. LHP since 2018), Jonathan Villar (68 wRC+, .131 ISO), Trey Mancini (100 wRC+, .177 ISO), Renato Nunez (102 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Keon Broxton (55 wRC+, .077 ISO) project as the top 5 hitters in the O’s order. Villar and Broxton have ugly numbers at the plate but are always a threat for a steal or two. Nunez has been the hottest Oriole hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. With the exception of Trey Mancini ($5.5k), all Orioles projected hitters are under $5k on Draftkings. The O’s aren’t a great offense, but their implied total of 4.79 feels low given that they’re playing in Coors and have a matchup versus a struggling starter.
Other tagged players: Renato Nunez, Keon Broxton, Kyle Freeland, Jonathan Villar, Hanser Alberto