DFS Alerts
Keeps Getting On Base
Max Kepler has turned into a really good leadoff hitter for the Twins and draws an excellent matchup on the road tonight. Cole is going to open the game, and then we should see Felix Pena take the bulk of the innings. Pena has a .337 wOBA with a .242 ISO and a 27.1% hard to soft contact ratio against lefties. Kepler has a .258 ISO with a .358 wOBA with a 15.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. I really want to take advantage of his price tag on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.
Everyone Has A Strikeout Rate Over 20%
Luke Weaver is right at the price point I consider value on DraftKings, but when I look at the options below him, I realize he’s one of my favorite pitchers on this slate. I think you can use him in all formats at this price point. The projected starting lineup for the Padres have a .197 ISO with a .324 wOBA but a massive 27% strikeout rate. Reyes and Renfroe have been great at the plate this season, but they both strike out over 25% against right-handed pitching. This is a great ballpark and Weaver has a lot of upside in this matchup.
Take Advantage On FanDuel
Brad Peacock hasn’t been as good as he was last season, but his price really stands out to me on FanDuel. The White Sox starting lineup has a .178 ISO with a .338 wOBA and a 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Moncada and Abreu are the two bats you’re worried about in this lineup, and with Abreu being a righty, I worry less about him. Peacock has struggled with lefties this season, but he has a .227 wOBA with a .089 ISO and a 27.3% strikeout rate against righties.
Unowned Power
I refuse to recommend a full out Mets stack but do think there is some merit in targeting Patrick Corbin in multi-entry tournaments. Current ownership projections have Corbin being the highest owned pitcher on the slate (30% DK, 19% FD) and my opinion is that his ownership will trump the other options by a wider margin than what we’re currently projecting (currently just 2% higher owned than Paddack on DK and 3% higher owned than Peacock on FD). Simply not rostering Corbin in tournaments is a viable strategy but I’m also interested in having exposure to Pete Alonso and J.D. Davis who have a ton of power but are virtually going to be unowned. Wilson Ramos is also tournament viable on site’s that require you to roster a catcher.
Other tagged players: J.D. Davis, Wilson Ramos
Patrick Corbin has struck out 24 Mets in 20 innings this year, his 29.2 K% tops the board
Patrick Corbin has faced the Mets three times already this year (20 IP – 17 H – 6 ER – 3 HR – 4 BB – 24 K – 80 BF). His 29.2 K% tops the board. His 2.43 DRA is second best. While his .305 is not even top five due to a 90.7 mph aEV (46.3% 95+ mph EV), it’s still better than average due to the elite strikeout rate. The Mets are floundering under the approach of a new hitting coach, who was run out of Chicago last year (where the offense is now thriving by the way). Included in this new contact driven philosophy is a 29 K% and 12.0 HR/FB against LHP this year. The former number is a split high for today. Perhaps the Mets may be extra motivated to save their manager’s job today and hey, maybe Robinson Cano will even run out a ground ball (if he plays), but make no mistake, Patrick Corbin is the highest upside pitcher on this slate and should be able to easily pay off a price tag at least $500 more than any other pitcher on the slate if he just continues what he’s already done against the Mets this year.
High Leverage Stack
My favorite high leverage stack of the night, and the team with the second highest leverage on SlateIQ, is the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels will square off against Twins righty Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has had an extremely solid season but there is a massive gap between his 2.63 ERA and 4.45 SIERA which indicates he’s been running a bit pure. A closer look at Odorizzi’s peripherals confirm this as he’s the owner of a .244 BABIP, 79.7% strand rate, 0.75 HR/9, and 6.7% HR/FB. Those HR numbers are especially far apart from career norms (1.23 HR/9; 6.7 HR/FB) and it’s safe to expect some level of regression as the season progresses. The Angels make for a sneaky power stack and Mike Trout makes for a strong tournament pivot off the higher owned Joey Gallo. I also really like the idea of using Shohei Ohtani (11%) as a tournament pivot off the higher owned Bryce Harper (15%) on DraftKings as I think there will be a bigger gap in ownership than what we’re currently projecting.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Tommy La Stella Andrew Cashner has a 25.8 K% and 11.4 SwStr% over the last month
Andrew Cashner has a 25.8 K% over the last month, which supported by an 11.4 SwStr%. He’s allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, including just two against the Yankees last time out. This is not a fluke either as his 3.67 SIERA and 3.41 FIP support his 3.13 ERA over the last month. To be clear, the majority of the improvement is in the peripherals, as he still has a .339 xwOBA over the last 30 days and 91.3 mph aEV (50.3% 95+ mph EV) for the season. Still, a much improved strikeout rate with a 51.7 GB% can mitigate a lot of damage even with that contact profile. The main change appears to be that he’s ditched a sinker (34.3% to 4.3%) that batters had a .401 wOBA (.398 xwOBA) against last season. In it’s place, he’s throwing more four-seamers (44.3%, .350 wOBA, .390 xwOBA this year) and changeups (22.2%, .250 wOBA, .327 xwOBA). Nobody’s mistaking the four-seamer for a quality pitch here, but basically anything was going to be an improvement over that sinker. The Yankees have a 108 wRC+, 12.3 HR/FB and 18 HR/FB vs RHP. This is still a tough spot in a tough park. However, the wind is blowing in from left tonight and Cashner is the cheapest arm on the board on DraftKings ($5.6K).
Top Stack of the Night
Calling the Texas Rangers the top stack of the night is far from bold. The Rangers unsurprisingly have the highest implied run total on the slate (6.1) as they find themselves in a posh home matchup against Mike Leake at hitter friendly GlobeLife Park in Arlington. Leake represents an ideal power matchup for the Rangers as the Mariners righty has already given up 11 HRs in 54 innings pitched this season. Leake has struggled with the long ball his entire career and things have only gotten worse the last couple of seasons as he’s seen a dip in his ground ball rate. Backing up Leake is a Mariners bullpen that is allowing the third highest home runs per nine innings (1.59) in the league.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Willie Calhoun, Rougned Odor Do Not Overlook These Splits
Jake Arrieta has been slipping for the past couple seasons, and so far in 2019, he has gone all the way off the cliff against lefties. In 22 innings worth of lefties faced, he has a horrendous 12:12 K:BB ratio, while allowing a 2.01 HR/9 on 40% fly balls and 39% hard hits. Kyle Schwarber is always a strikeout risk, but the lack of swing and miss ability from Arrieta gives him more chances to take advantage of his power. He also has a lot of patience, which adds to his on base upside even if he doesn’t find the home runs tonight.
Getting Healthier By The Day
The Yankees continue to get little healthier every week, and with Aaron Hicks back on the field, they have enough left-handed power added to Sanchez/Voit/Torres to make life tough on a pitcher like Andrew Cashner. Cashner has improved against lefties the past couple seasons, and he’s been able to keep the ball on the ground so far this year, but over the long run, he’s been a guy who has struggled with lefty power. Hicks is not priced up to full strength, but after a home run yesterday we can hope that he’s back to his 2018 form, where he had a .366 wOBA with elite plate skills against right-handed pitching. He and Kendrys Morales are also both switch hitters which will help against the bad Orioles bullpen. If Cashner manages to keep them somewhat in check, there are going to be run and RBI opportunities throughout the game at very reasonable salaries on these two switch hitters.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales Can't Pass On This Game
Mike Leake has shown some improvement against lefties this season, but this Texas team in their home ballpark is loaded with talent, and much of it at salaries too good to ignore. Even if buying into the improvements from Leake, the Mariners have a horrendous bullpen that will lead to scoring chances throughout the night for Texas. Asdrubal Cabrera has the combination of contact and fly balls to offset Leake’s ground ball lean and he also has the switch hitting edge when they get into the bullpen.
Top Of The Hill
It’s a good pitching slate, with as many as nine pitchers that I would consider in all formats. But for starters, it’s just overthinking it to try and find a reason to pass on Patrick Corbin. He has been every bit as good in the followup to his breakout 2018 season. He is striking out 29.2% of batters with solid control while bringing his hard contact down. He has a quality start in eight of his nine outings this season and has 8+ strikeouts in five of them, including 11 against this Mets team last week. He has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on this slate with a strong matchup in a good ballpark.
Start of HOU-BOS will be delayed due to rain Sunday
The start of the matchup between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Red Sox have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Chris Sale not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through without a hitch upon the conclusion of the initial delay.
As reported by: the Boston Red Sox via Twitter
Jon Berti (oblique) scratched Sunday; Rosell Herrera replaces
Berti has been scratched from the Miami Marlis original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the New York Mets due to a left oblique strain. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Rosell Herrera, who will now play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Curtis Granderson, Miguel Rojas, and Chad Wallach up to leadoff, sixth, and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Marlins lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Noah Syndergaard at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Andre Fernandez via Twitter Other tagged players: Rosell Herrera Value Bats Available in Cleveland’s Lineup
The Indians will face Yefry Ramirez this afternoon, who owned an ugly 5.92 ERA / 5.25 xFIP in 2018 with an 8.8% BB rate and 45.2% FB rate. The Indians are projected for the 2nd highest total of the day with a 5.93 implied total vs. Ramirez, yet have a number of bats who feel very underpriced. Jason Kipnis will bat 2nd at just $4k on Draftkings; he has a .365 xwOBA vs. RHP so far this year. Carlos Santana will bat 3rd at just $4.2k and is the owner of a 103 wRC+ and .176 ISO vs. RHP since 2018. Carlos Gonzalez bats 4th at just $3.5k and has a 99 wRC+ and .183 ISO vs. RHP since 2018. Jose Ramirez follows him and is just $4.1k due to a rough 2019 thus far; however he is still the owner of a 135 wRC+ and .267 ISO vs. RHP since 2018 with 46 steals over that timeframe. Jake Bauers bats 6th at just $3.7k with a 97 wRC+ and .168 ISO vs. RHP since 2018. Francisco Lindor isn’t a “value” at $5k but is certainly in play in a great matchup where he’ll leadoff and has a 115 wRC+ and .234 ISO vs. RHP since 2018.
Other tagged players: Jakob Bauers, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Yefry Ramirez, Francisco Lindor