DFS Alerts
Michael Pineda and Trevor Cahill have combined to allow 27 HRs already
Los Angeles could be a nice spot to look for the long ball tonight. Michael Pineda and Trevor Cahill have combined to allow 27 HRs in 91 innings already. Each has an xwOBA above .360, which extends above .370 over the last month. Pineda did not pitch last season (Tommy John), but a .387 wOBA with eight of his 13 HRs from RHBs immediately conjures thoughts of Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Pineda has never allowed this much damage to RHBs, but really doesn’t have a platoon split for his career. While Cahill has allowed nine of his 14 HRs to RHBs with just 17 more PAs against him that LHBs, it’s batters with the platoon advantage that have assaulted him for a .448 wOBA this season. Max Kepler (105 wRC+, .213 ISO), Eddie Rosario (109 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (147 wRC+, .202 ISO) are bats to focus on here. One could do worse than Jason Castro (172 wRC+, .431 ISO) at catcher as well. This game will additionally feature a hitter friendly umpire (Marvin Hudson) with both teams implied for exactly 4.5 runs.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Michael Pineda, Jorge Polanco, Jason Castro, Trevor Cahill
Tuesday's Top Arm
There are a lot of viable pitching options tonight, but Verlander clearly has the best path to a high upside performance. While his batted ball profile has been a little more alarming this year, he still has an ERA in the mid-twos to go along with a 3.26 SIERA and a 31.1% strikeout rate. He also draws a matchup against a White Sox team that owns the fourth highest strikeout rate and fourth lowest walk rate in baseball this year. It’s all systems go for Verlander this evening, with the only risk being his elevated hard contact and occasional home run-prone tendencies. I’ll side with the veteran pitcher. His velocity is fine, and his SwStr% is equal to last year at 14.5%. He’s your top option.
Solid Middle Of The Order Value
The Yankees got a lot of traction last night against Andrew Cashner, and I would expect more of the same tonight against David Hess. Hess is a massive fly ball pitcher with an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP all over 5.00 this year. He allowed four home runs over six innings in his last start against these same Yankees, with Gleyber Torres leaving the yard twice. It’s all about power bats against Hess, and I’m more inclined to take one or two power hitting one-offs here as opposed to trying to full stack New York. Gary Sanchez and the aforementioned Torres move to the top of the list, as Sanchez owns a ridiculous .381 ISO this year, while Torres sits at .240. Luke Voit isn’t far behind. Those three are your best options here, and I will also throw Kendrys Morales in the mix. He’s nothing special at this stage, but he still has plenty of power — and he comes very cheap from a DFS perspective. As long as he’s still in the middle of the order, I love him as a value play tonight.
Big Time Power Upside
I saw an interesting stat this morning that Sammy Reid posted on Twitter. There are only three qualified hitters with a current OBP and ISO of .380+ this season. Two of them are Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. The third one is Daniel Vogelbach. That’s impressive company for the budding young slugger, and the ISO of .389 is truly impressive. He didn’t start on Monday but still made the game close with a pinch hit home run in the 9th inning, and the upside is immense against Lynn, who has historically struggled mightily with left-handed hitters. Vogelbach is one of my favorite plays of the night, and you can throw in Jay Bruce and/or a few of the other lefties for a nice GPP mini stack. The Mariners will get ignored a little bit more on this side of the game, but they are fine options.
Lift Off
If I have to pick one bat here, I will opt for Michael Brantley. Covey has allowed a .355 wOBA with 17% strikeouts and nearly 13% walks to LHBs in his brief major league career, and he doesn’t have the stuff to fool major league hitters. Brantley is hitting .346 with a .419 wOBA and .271 ISO against righties this year and can be considered a top bat in any format. Bregman and Correa provide some additional pop, while guys like Yulieski Gurriel provide some value. I will be wary of George Springer even if he does return tonight, as back issues are often more than just two day absences. Otherwise, you can’t really “go wrong” with Houston bats.
C
Caleb Smith leads the board with a 36.5 K% and 16.5 SwStr% and both by no small margin either (4.1 and 2.0 points). Both of those numbers are even higher over the last 30 days (36.8%, 18.2%). His 77.3 Z-Contact% is also best on the slate. While a .245 BABIP and 89.9 LOB% are completely unsustainable, all of his estimators (including a 2.52 DRA) are below three, while his 29.8% 95+ mph EV is second best on the board, resulting in a .275 xwOBA that also tops the board. It keeps getting more and more impressive no matter what numbers you look at. While the Tigers have a few RHBs who can hit LHP (104 wRC+), they also have a 26.8 K% against southpaws. While Justin Verlander (31.1 K%, 2.87 DRA, .291 xwOBA) is in a pretty strong spot too, hosting the White Sox (18.4 K-BB%), Smith costs at least $900 less on either site. The only place Verlander has an edge on Smith is in workload (24.8 BF per start to 22.75).
German Marquez has a 20 K-BB% and is outside 10 most expensive on FanDuel
German Marquez struggled in Boston last time out (five earned runs), but with strong peripherals (one walk, six strikeouts). He’s faced at least 26 batters in seven straight starts. Striking out a quarter of batters faced with a 20 K-BB%, he also owns a 17 HR/FB and 27.6 Hard-Soft%. A 5.14 ERA over the last month comes with his estimators remaining in the low to mid-threes. Four of his last six starts have come at Coors & then also Boston and Milwaukee. Pittsburgh is a significant upgrade in park and matchup for him, though they do have just a 20.7 K% vs RHP. A 90.2 mph aEV is a bit concerning, but a 53.3 GB% and 30.9 Z-O-Swing% should help limit damage, along with the great peripherals. There are at least six pitchers more expensive than Marquez on either site. In fact, he’s not even inside the top 10 at just $8.2K on FanDuel. He may be the top value on the board. His opponent, Chris Archer, is even cheaper with a higher strikeout rate (25.6% to 24.5%) in a great spot (Rockies 21.8 K-BB% on the road, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP, 17.8 K-BB% last seven days), but has struggled greatly over his last three starts (15.9 K%, 10.66 ERA, 6.34 SIERA, .398 xwOBA).
Nice Value On FanDuel
Marquez has a 3.02 xFIP with a 24.5% strikeout rate and a 14.1% swinging strike rate on the season. He has a .368 wOBA at home and a .223 wOBA on the road. His strikeout rate increased and his home run per nine goes down when he’s on the road. This team doesn’t strikeout very much, but this FanDuel price really stands out to me. We know the upside for Marquez, and he’s getting a massive ballpark bump on top of this good matchup.
Great Matchup On Paper
The Miami Marlins feature seven right-handed hitters. The projected starting lineup has a .095 ISO with a .294 wOBA and a 22.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Turnbull has struggled with left-handed hitters, but he has a .249 wOBA with a .078 ISO and a 29.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. I really like Turnbull on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. I think this is a really good spot for him, and I’m looking at him in all formats tonight.
Victor Caratini (105 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year) is an affordable catcher batting cleanup
Conditions appear to be pitcher friendly at Wrigley tonight, but it’s a much more negative spot for HRs than it is overall run environment. Jake Arrieta has not been good against the Brewers and Royals last two times out (11 IP – 9 R – 3 HR – 7 BB – 10 K – 52 BF). His 7.9 SwStr% is the same as it was last year, as he continues striking out batters at a below average rate. At a 10.1 K-BB% and 89.5 mph aEV, a 51.9 GB% is of small solace. All of his estimators, along with his ERA, are above four, while he’s sitting on a .346 xwOBA, some 32 points above his actual mark. This might be a spot where a Chicago stack could pay off, rather than individual bats. LHBs have a .367 wOBA (.380 xwOBA) against Arrieta over the last calendar year. It’s somewhat conceivable the Cubs could just keep the line moving and accumulate runs, rather than blasting the ball out of the park here, as Arrieta has been known to struggle with control at times. Kyle Schwarber (105 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) remains a great value in the leadoff spot. Anthony Rizzo (153 wRC+, .255 ISO) is the most potent bat in this lineup, batting third. Victor Caratini (105 wRC+, .135 ISO) is an affordable catcher in the cleanup spot, who could see a few RBI opportunities today. The Cubs sit in the middle of the board tonight, at 4.5 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Jake Arrieta Luke Weaver has a 20.4 K-BB% this season and faces a team with a 21 K-BB% vs RHP
Luke Weaver allowed three runs in his last start, but it was only the second time in seven starts he’d allowed more than two, coming off two seven inning outings. He’s sitting on an impressive 20.4 K-BB% this season. His 2.96 DRA is one of only four marks below three on a strong pitching board tonight. While a lot of people may be more focused on the other side of this matchup, and rightfully so (Chris Paddack 28.5 K%, 2.07 DRA, 86 mph aEV, .261 xwOBA), Weaver is quite a bit cheaper ($1K less on DK) in a pretty favorable spot of his own. The Padres have just an 82 wRC+ and 21 K-BB% vs RHP this year. San Diego is still firmly a negative run environment and an early look at conditions suggest there might be even further benefit for pitcher’s tonight (Weather Edge is available to premium subscribers).
RHBs had a .363 wOBA with 22 HRs against Andrew Suarez last year
Andrew Suarez gets his first start of the season. His 8.9 K-BB% six AAA starts is even less inspiring than his 7.3 SwStr% and 40 Hard% in 160.1 major league innings last season. Despite being implied for just 3.99 runs in a difficult park, there might be a leveraging opportunity (SlateIQ is available to premium subscribers) in considering some Atlanta bats in this spot. RHBs had a .363 wOBA and hit 22 HRs against Saurez last year and 10 of those came at home. Ronald Acuna Jr. (172 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Josh Donaldson (141 wRC+, .216 ISO) are firmly in play here, as is Tyler Flowers (132 wRC+, .198 ISO) at a reasonable price at a tough position. Also consider Austin Riley, who’s set the league on fire through his first week (221 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%). San Francisco is never an ideal spot to look for offense on night slates, but it will help players differentiate somewhat tonight.
Other tagged players: Austin Riley, Josh Donaldson, Tyler Flowers, Andrew Suarez Favorite Alternative
My favorite alternative to Corbin and Paddack, once you factor in ownership projections, is Mike Soroka. Soroka is currently projected to be just 11% owned on DraftKings and 3% owned on FanDuel despite a favorable road matchup against the San Francisco Giants at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Soroka doesn’t have the same strikeout upside as Corbin and Paddack but he does have a respectable 22.1% strikeout rate this season and has been given a longer leash than Paddack. Aside from being a good run prevention spot, there are also strikeouts to be had against a Giants offense whose current projected lineup has six hitters (pitcher spot included) in it with strikeout rates north of 21.8% against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.
Yu Darvish has the top strikeout rate on the board over the last month (33.9%)
Yu Darvish struck out 11 Reds without a walk last time out. Only the third time he’s walked fewer than four this season. He hasn’t allowed a HR in two starts either after allowing at least one in six of his first seven starts. His 33.9 K% over the last month tops the board by five whole points tonight. More encouraging news is that his .313 xwOBA is 33 points below his actual mark over the last month and his 86 mph aEV on the season is third best on today’s board. Don’t trust Darvish in cash games against a Philadelphia offense with a 10.8 BB% vs RHP, but conditions are suggested to be pitcher friendly (cool temperatures) at Wrigley tonight and the Phillies do have just a 98 wRC+ and 15.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. If Darvish can harness his command, he could pay off a price tag below $9K in tournaments.
High Contact Rate
With Springer banged up, Diaz dealing with a hamstring injury, and Altuve on the IL, the Astros lineup won’t look the same as usual tonight. Gurriel should end up hitting third or fourth tonight. This is going to be a bullpen game for the White Sox, and the Astros have one of the highest implied totals on the slate. The White Sox bullpen ranks 7th in xFIP on the season, and they have a really high 1.27 HR/9. Gurriel has been hit or miss at the plate this season, but he continues to put the ball in play and doesn’t strikeout a lot. He’s a nice source of value on a team with a implied team total over six.