DFS Alerts
Flying High
Julio Teheran has always struggled with lefty-handed batters. Over the past two seasons, he is at 19.2% K and 16.5% BB against lefties while allowing 41% fly balls and 41% hard hits. Matt Carpenter has the patience to take some walks for easy points and has big run scoring upside, and if given a pitch to hit, his hard hit ability gives him plenty of power upside.
The Only Option
There is not much available with pitching tonight, and though the matchup is far from ideal with Luis Castillo at home against the Cubs, he is far and away the most skilled pitcher on this slate. His 31.8% K rate this season is a full seven points ahead of the next closest options. He has at least seven strikeouts in eight of his nine starts this season, and those strikeouts give him both a floor and a ceiling that nobody else has on this slate. Because of the patience in the Cubs lineup, I won’t go all-in on Castillo in tournaments, but he is my first look on all sites in all formats.
A Reasonable Value
On a thin slate for arms, you can certainly choose to go cheaper with a selection tonight. Marcus Stroman has always had a solid “real life” skill set thanks to his ability to get ground balls, but his fantasy upside is capped by his limited strikeout upside and occasionally wayward command. The good news is that tonight’s matchup against a free swinging White Sox team enhances that strikeout upside, as the White Sox own the fifth highest team strikeout rate in the league. This isn’t a sexy selection, but it’s definitely viable on a shorter slate.
The Clear-Cut Ace
This slate offers next to nothing for talent from a pitching perspective, and sometimes you just have to side with raw ability. Castillo has a chance to blow away every other pitcher on this slate in terms of fantasy points, and his ownership will be high enough to where it would be difficult to win without him if he throws a gem. His salary is expensive, but it’s not exorbitant, and he’s earned his keep with a 32% strikeout rate and a SIERA and xFIP in the low to mid threes. He does a great job of keeping hitters off balance and limiting hard contact, which should neutralize the power bats for the Cubs. The walks are the only concern here, but every pitcher on this slate has flaws. I like Stroman and Lauer as value arms, but I will make Castillo a priority in all formats.
Thursday's Top Offense
In matchups against right-handed pitching this season, the Twins lead the league in team ISO, they rank second in team wOBA, and they have the third lowest team strikeout rate. Eddie Rosario leads the active lineup with a .232 ISO against RHP since the start of last year, Jorge Polanco is thriving, and we can also get some solid value with Max Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez. This team is exceeding all expectations and should be able to keep it rolling against a mediocre RHP in Erik Swanson.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez A Solid Stack
I don’t think you necessarily NEED to stack up the Braves tonight, but their left-handed bats are in a good spot against Adam Wainwright. The veteran right-hander has allowed a .406 wOBA to lefty bats this season with a 23% line drive rate and 46% hard hit rate. That’s not good. Freeman owns a .381 wOBA against RHP since the start of last year and is the best target from this squad, checking in as my favorite point per dollar bat on the slate. You could add Albies or Markakis if you want to stack up some of the LHBs in a GPP, while Austin Riley (though he hits from the right side) hit a home run in his debut last night and is mega cheap.
Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Austin Riley Michael Wacha has a 13 BB%, 18.4 HR/FB and .353 xwOBA this year
Michael Wacha is striking out batters at a below average rate (18.6% over the last month) and is up to a 13 BB% with an 18.4 HR/FB on the season. His 24.3 LD% further supports a .353 xwOBA. This may be an opportune time to take a look at some St Louis bats, especially with Sam Holbrook behind the plate. While over the last year, RHBs are hitting Wacha better than LHBs (.333 wOBA to .303), Statcast brings that under some scrutiny as LHBs have a 47.6 Hard%, 36.9 GB% and .349 xwOBA against Wacha (RHBs .345). The main point here is that batters from either side of the plate have some value here with Ronald Acuna (131 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Josh Donaldson (120 wRC+, .198 ISO, 53.5 Hard%) and Freddie Freeman (126 wRC+, .173 ISO) standing out. Each of the three have been hitting the ball well over the last week as well. Acuna and Freeman are above a 60% hard hit rate over that span, while Freeman has a 179 wRC+.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Michael Wacha
Christian Yelich has tortured RHP over the last year (186 wRC+, .337 ISO)
Jake Arrieta misses bats at a below average rate (7.7 SwStr%) and has a 90.2 mph aEV this year. He’s now also allowed eight HRs in eight starts. There is very little support of his 3.78 ERA in either his 4.58 SIERA, 4.70 DRA or .353 xwOBA. Milwaukee bats might be worth a look here, especially the left-handed ones, as they have a wOBA (.364) that’s 64 points higher than RHBs against Arrieta over the last calendar year, along with just a 43.7 GB%. Unfortunately, that accounts for just Christian Yelich (186 wRC+, .337 ISO, 51.4 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) and Mike Moustakas (102 wRC+, .223 ISO) tonight for the Brewers, but Yelich may be the top overall bat on the board. Players should consider paying up for him tonight, especially if he’s going to be low owned in a spot that appears to be fairly strong for him.
Other tagged players: Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas Mike Minor has a 28.2 K% and .267 xwOBA over the last month
Mike Minor might be pitching the best baseball of his major league career right now. Since his first start, he’s only allowed more than two runs twice (OAK, HOU) and is up to a 28.2 K% over the last month. While his contact profile shows only a league average 88 mph aEV, his batted ball profile exhibits elite numbers in his line drive (16.7%), infield fly (17.5%) and Z-Contact (79.3%) rates. So, while a .250 BABIP and 84.7 LOB% have his 2.68 ERA well below his 4.02 SIERA, we have to remember that he’s pitching in a horrendous park half the time and in a difficult division against some strong offenses. His 2.68 DRA reflects this a bit more and his .267 xwOBA over the last month support the results. Tonight, he gets a little bit of a break against a Kansas City offense that has really struggled against LHP this year (73 wRC+). Tonight’s particular lineup has a 25.2 K% vs LHP since the start of last season according to PlateIQ. Minor is within $400 of $9K on either site tonight and is not expected to be very popular (Projected Ownership is available to premium subscribers).
Eduardo Rodriquez has a 26.6% 95+ mph EV in 2019, 19.8 K-BB% at home since last year
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed one run or less in six or more innings in three of his last four starts and he’s been great at home since last season (19.8 K-BB%). His 79.9 Z-Contact% this season is second best on the board tonight, while he’s managed contact extremely well (26.6% 95+ mph EV is best on the board). After a rough start, Rodriguez has a 2.79 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, 2.45 FIP and .287 xwOBA over the last month and is in a rare strong spot at Fenway tonight. The Rockies have just an 89 wRC+ and 20.2 K-BB% vs LHP. There’s a lot of upside in this matchup, even if the Rockies are adding a DH. Rodriguez is reasonably priced below $8.5K on either site, especially since he now appears to be working a bit deeper into games.
German Marquez has a 20.6 K-BB% last seven starts and 22.1 K-BB% away from Coors since last season
German Marquez has a 14.3 SwStr% (15% over the last 30 days) that probably isn’t done justice by his 24.8 K% (25.8% over the last month). There seems to be room for further improvement here. On top of that, six of his 12 walks this year came in his second start, giving him a 20.6 K-BB% over his last seven starts, five of which have come at Coors. Fenway can’t be called a park upgrade for a lot of pitchers, but it is a significant one for Marquez, even if the Red Sox have been one of the best disciplined offenses in baseball (6.7 K-BB% at home, 8.9 K-BB% vs RHP, 9.5 K-BB% last seven days). His great peripherals and 54.7 GB% should be able to limit damage, while there are not a lot of pitchers players are going to feel good about rostering when visiting Boston, Marquez would still seem to have decent value at $9K or less (at least $2K less than Verlander on either site), considering the conditions he normally pitches under (22.1 K-BB% away from Coors since the start of last season).
Just Let Him Start
I really hate trusting this Rays long relief/opener situation. With that being said, we don’t have a lot of great value pitching tonight, and I really like this spot for Jalen Beeks. Since the start of 2018, this projected starting lineup has a .115 ISO with a .306 wOBA and a 16.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. They don’t really have the power to beat Beeks with the long ball, and a lot of this start will come down to BABIP. Given the ballpark and matchup, Beeks is worth a look on two pitcher sites today.
Good Spot For The Lefty
Mike Minor has a pretty good matchup tonight against the Royals. The Royals have struggled this year against left handed pitching, with the 5th lowest wOBA and 8th lowest ISO. Mike Minor has a 25% strikeout rate this year. He is a guy who pitches deep into games, throwing over 100 pitches in 4 out of his last 5 outings. Minor definitely has upside with low ownership tonight in GPPs.
Two Top Arms
Patrick Corbin is in a good spot today. He gets the Mets, who have a 28% strikeout rate to left handed pitching- this is the 5th worst in the MLB. Corbin has a 28% strikeout rate with a 12.5% swing strike rate this year. Corbin is the second highest priced pitcher on DK, so I believe that most will try to just get up to Verlander if possible. This could lower Corbin’s ownership in tournaments.
Sneaky Rays Stack
If you are looking for a stack that may be sneaky today, I think it’s the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are 7th in ISO and 6th in wOBA against right handed pitching this year. The Rays have a good group of left handed bats to throw out against Urena. He definitely struggles more to lefties, giving up a 35% fly ball rate and a 40% hard hit rate this year. I will be targeting Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and JI Man Choi in GPPs tonight.