DFS Alerts
High upside spot against hard contact prone pitcher
Michael Pineda hasn’t been bad an even pitches in a favorable run environment with a pitcher friendly umpire tonight, but make no mistake, this is a terrible spot for him and the underlying numbers suggest he could run into some problems facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, as same-handed batters have hammered him for a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .370 so far with a 54.8 Hard% and just a 25.8 GB%. Pineda has always suffered from HR issues (above 14 HR/FB each of the last four seasons he’s pitched). The books are in agreement here as Houston is one of only two teams outside Coors above five implied runs tonight. The top of the Houston order is expensive tonight, but salary shouldn’t be much of an issue without a single pitcher on the board exceeding $10K on either site. Fill up with some George Springer (122 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jose Altuve (139 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Alex Bregman (163 wRC+, .263 ISO) in a high upside spot.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Michael Pineda, George Springer
Hard contact and Ks: A case for both sides
Homer Bailey had been seeing a velocity bump, but it dropped back down last start. However, he still hasn’t had fewer than six strikeouts or an 8.8 SwStr% in any of his four starts and he’s faced some decent offenses. He seems to have picked up a split finger and it’s his second most favored pitch this year (25.1%). It has replaced some sinkers and generated a 48% whiff rate. He’s still a fly ball pitcher (35.1 GB%), with some hard contact problems (50% 95+ mph EV) and he’s facing a difficult lineup (120 wRC+, 31.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but in a pitcher’s park with a pitcher’s umpire (Brian O’Nora). The Rays are a lift and pull offense. This is dangerous, but there is some upside here (Rays 29.1 K% at home, 24 K% vs RHP, 25.6 K% last seven days). Bailey is plenty cheap enough to work in a secondary spot on DraftKings ($6.2K) in GPPs, even if players want to use some bats against him as well. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Bailey over the last calendar year (though that’s dropped some this year). Brandon Lowe, Tommy Pham and Yandy Diaz all have at least a 130 wRC+ with ISOs above .200 vs RHP over that same span. All three are also averaging above a 90 mph aEV this season. There should be both some HRs and strikeouts here.
Other tagged players: Yandy Diaz, Brandon Loy, Tommy Pham Nice Ballpark Upgrade
Brandon Belt has been the one bat we can trust with the Giants this season and draws a really good matchup and ballpark upgrade tonight. In 43 plate appearances against left-handed hitters Thornton has a .421 wOBA with a .385 ISO. He has a 93.7 average exit velocity against left-handed hitters as well. Belt has a .350 ISO with a .397 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
A 95.2 mph aEV against the pitcher allowing the hardest contact on the board
Andrew Cashner has been a ground ball machine (54.2%) with just a 10.8 LD%, but a 91.6 aEV worst on the board. He’s the only pitcher on the board allowing half of his contact (50.6%) above a 95 mph EV. Of course, despite the six strikeouts last time out, he has just a 13.6 K%. He’s allowed five HRs in five starts, two in his only home start this season. The White Sox have owned a fairly healthy 18.4 HR/FB vs RHP this season. Currently, the White Sox provide the second highest implied run line on the board outside Coors tonight (5.07). While Chicago bats are priced more optimally on FanDuel, where Jose Abreu (102 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yonder Alonso (100 wRC+, .191 ISO), and Welington Castillo (100 wRC+, .177 ISO) remain below $3K, Yoan Moncada (114 wRC+, .207 ISO) is very play worthy at a higher cost. He has been crushing the ball this season (95.2 mph aEV), which matches up nicely with Cashner’s aEV, and batters from either side of the plate are above both a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Cashner over the last 12 months.
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso, Welington Castillo Offense Ranked 3rd in Runs Scored Per Game Takes on Southpaw Tonight
Wade Miley has had difficulties with right-handed hitters in his career, allowing a career slugging percentage almost 70 points higher to righties (.430) than lefties (.362). The Twins have the sixth-highest OPS against left-handed pitching this year, and have a number of dangerous right-handed hitters. Nelson Cruz had a .936 OPS against lefties last year, including 11 HRs in 143 ABs, and Mitch Garver (hitting leadoff), and C.J. Cron (hitting fifth) will all look to do damage against Miley tonight in Houston.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Mitch Garver
Take a Chance On the Best Pitcher of the Night At a Discount
It’s difficult to pull the trigger on a pitcher in Coors Field, but this is shaping up as a night to take that chance, particularly in GPPs. Corbin has been outstanding in his first four starts with the Nationals, striking out 33 in 26.2 innings along with a 2.36 ERA (2.98 SIERA) and 0.90 WHIP. Pitchers can succeed in Coors, and if I’m going to take the chance, I’ll take it on an excellent pitcher with a discount on pricing on a night thin on pitching.
Increased Pitch Usage
Homer Bailey had a 5.22 xFIP with a 15.2% strikeout rate in 2018. He has a 2.96 xFIP with a 29.3% strikeout rate in his four starts in 2019. These numbers are going to regress, but after digging into “why”, he’s throwing more breaking stuff instead of fastballs this season. In 2018, he threw his splitter 3.69% to lefties and 2.11% to righties. He’s throwing it 28.44% to lefties and 20.93% to righties this season. I’m not saying this pitch is going to save him, but it’s certainly making a difference to start the season. He has at least six strikeouts in each of his four starts, and considering his price, he’s certainly someone I’ll be using tonight.
Strikeout Upside With A Great Ballpark
The pitching slate is ugly tonight, and I’m searching for some upside in this mid-tier. Erik Swanson posted a 26.8% strikeout rate with a 11.4% swinging strike rate in AAA last season with the Yankees. He was sent over to Seattle in the Paxton deal, and has always shown strikeout stuff at every level. The Padres are very right-handed, and this should help a young pitcher that has a fastball/slider/changeup combo. He’s anything but safe, but I do like the ballpark and the options are limited tonight.
Don't Forget This Game
The Brewers Zach Davies has ground ball ability with good control against right-handed batters, but there is nothing positive to say about his skills against lefties. Since the start of 2018, he has struck out just 16.3% of lefties, with allowing a .343 wOBA on 36% hard hits with a below average ground ball rate. Matt Carpenter continues to hit the ball extremely hard and in the air with 51% fly balls and 48% hard hits since the start of 2018.
Run It Back
The White Sox went nuts against the Orioles bullpen last night, something that is likely to be a theme all year for teams travelling to Baltimore. Tonight they start with Andrew Cashner and his low strikeouts combined with an inability to keep the ball on the ground against lefties. Along with Yoan Moncada, Yonder Alonso will be my White Sox bat of choice tonight with his 40% fly balls and 38% hard hits against right-handed pitching.
Don't Overthink It
I don’t see the Coors Field game a must play overall tonight, and certainly not a must stack in tournaments, but Juan Soto does stand out as the bat I want to start with tonight, at least in cash games, and with plenty of tournament exposure. His elite plate discipline has been a nightmare for right-handed pitchers, and now he gets Jeff Hoffman, who has struck out just 14.4% of lefties in his career. Soto’s .409 wOBA and .421 OBP would have him in play in any ballpark, and puts him at the top of the list here.
Have To Play Somebody
This is a dreadful pitching slate tonight. The best pitcher on the mound is in Coors Field, and while I do think you can play Patrick Corbin in all formats, I’d prefer to start even a little cheaper with Zack Wheeler. Wheeler hasn’t looked as sharp as he did last season, but he continues to limit hard contact and is especially tough on righties, where most of these Phillies line up. It’s a park downgrade for the Phillies travelling to New York and at this salary, Wheeler is where I’ll start in cash games.
Start of PHI-NYM will be delayed due to rain Monday
The start of the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets on Monday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Mets have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Jake Arrieta not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this game does carry some postponement risk, albeit, far from the likeliest outcome.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo via Twitter
Success has been BABIP driven
Jake Arrieta has thrown at least seven innings in each of his last three starts, but still has a floundering 6.6 SwStr%. His 50.8 GB% is entirely reliant on a 70.8% rate last time out. It’s been well below 50% in each of his other three outings. Last year, he complained about defense. This year, he has a .213 BABIP that is completely unsustainable. His 89.7 mph aEV is nothing to write home about either. Further ammunition against Arrieta is that line movement has flipped the Mets from a small dog to a small favorite in this game despite a minority of the bets. The total has increased a full run since opening as well. Mets bats, at low ownership, appear to be the play here. Especially as Arrieta shut them down despite just three strikeouts last time out. There is no way Arrieta merits a price tag above $9K. It continues to get better though, as projected plate umpire Mark Carlson is about as hitter friendly as they get. LHBs have a .354 wOBA against Arrieta over the last calendar year. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Michael Conforto all exceed a 130 wRC+ against RHP over the same time span with both Nimmo and Conforto enjoying an ISO above .200 as well.
Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Jake Arrieta More HRs than strikeouts
David Hess continues to get lit up. He’s generated more HRs (6) than strikeouts (5) over his last three starts. Peripherals are atrocious and he has generated an ERA well above five despite a .224 BABIP. Just 20% of his contact has been on the ground with a 92.9 mph aEV. As such, 20% of his batted balls qualify as Barrels. Thought the White Sox do strike out (25.7%), this is not a pitcher who misses bats and the offense has been quite competent (102 wRC+, 19.4 HR/FB vs RHP). At 4.86 implied runs, the White Sox are fourth best on this board as a rare road favorite. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Most White Sox bats seem better deals on FanDuel, where you can get either Jose Abreu (99 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Yonder Alonso (104 wRC+, .184 ISO) below $3K, but Yoan Moncada (115 wRC+, .207 ISO) is the best bat in this lineup and playable at a higher price on either site out of the second spot in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, David Hess, Yoan Moncada