DFS Alerts
Breakout Incoming
This series has been quiet so far, but perhaps a Saturday night is the spot for a breakout. The Phillies are definitely my preferred side in tonight’s game, as they face an average, low strikeout RHP in Antonio Senzatela. He is not going to blow the ball by anyone, and the Phillies obviously sport a ton of power bats. Bryce Harper is my top play of the night. When you combine his talent + Coors Field + a matchup against a low strikeout RHP, you get immense fantasy upside. I fully expect the Phillies to bust out tonight, and it starts with Harper. Harper has a career .357 wOBA and .254 ISO against RHP, and that’s not even adjusted for tonight’s matchup and environment. Play him tonight.
Priority Arm In A Great Spot
Through his first four starts, Luis Castillo owns a 33.3% strikeout rate, a .111 opposing batting average, a 20% hard contact rate allowed, and a 16% swinging strike rate. Those are video game type numbers. The walks remain a problem, though, and that’s the only thing holding him back from being an elite major league arm. Hitters are clearly having trouble squaring him up, and Castillo has always had great “swing and miss” stuff. It’s all a matter of harnessing that command. Vegas is a believer, as the Reds are road favorites tonight, and the Padres have a team total rivaling the Rangers for the lowest on the slate. Given that his matchup is much better than Cole’s, I will prioritize the Cincinnati right hander tonight.
Start of SFG-PIT will be delayed due to rain Friday
The start of the matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Pirates have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Jordan Lyles and Madison Bumgarner not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there’s a strong likelihood the game is called before play is able to get underway.
As reported by: Henry Schulman via Twitter
Best Offense in 2018 a Contrarian Option Tonight?
The Red Sox have been a bad offense this year for sure, but going forward they still project to be one of the better offenses in the league. Tonight they’re in Tropicana and will face Ryne Stanek for an inning or two, and then will likely face Ryan Yarbrough in long relief. This by no means is a daunting matchup for the Red Sox, but they have just a 3.92 implied total tonight which feels too low. Ryan Yarbrough is a career 4.40 xFIP pitcher, and the Red Sox have a number of bats that have been viable vs. LHP. Mookie Betts (.544 xwOBA vs. LHP last year), J.D. Martinez (.468), Xander Bogaerts (.366), Andrew Benintendi (.295) and Rafel Devers (.314) are all options tonight. J.D. Martinez (.651 xwOBA over the last 10 days), Mitch Moreland (.521), Andrew Benintendi (.455) and Xander Bogaerts (.454) have all seen the ball exceptionally well of late.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Ryne Stanek, Ryan Yarbrough, Mitch Moreland
Another opportunity for west coast fireworks
Games in explosive environments like Colorado and Texas will get most of the attention tonight, but don’t forget there were 21 runs scored in Anaheim last night and a chance for more fireworks tonight. On one side, Marco Gonzales remains is missing fewer bats (14.6 K%, 6.2 SwStr%) and allowing louder contact (89 mph aEV). In fact, his 92.4 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and he’s facing a team that just does not strike out (Angels 15.8 K% last seven days). Add this to the worst defense in the league through the first few weeks (Mariners -26 DFS) and the Angels may put a few more on the board tonight. While Mike Trout (174 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is a given, perhaps he’ll go under-owned in favor of Coors bats. David Fletcher (66 wRC+, .093 ISO) hasn’t shown much, but homered last night and provides a cheap leadoff bat.
On the other side, Felix Pena has the worst aEV on the board (95.1 mph) and that’s through three starts, not just one or two. The Seattle lineup has not yet been released, but the bat you want here is Dan Vogelbach. He has been destroying RHP (187 wRC+, .305 ISO, 51.6 Hard% over the last calendar year) and we might see one go a long way if he connects tonight. LHBs have a .332 wOBA and 42.7 Hard% against Pena over the last year. The problem is, besides Vogelbach and Jay Bruce (94 wRC+, .182 ISO), the Mariners don’t really offer a lot in terms of LH power.
Value in LAA Lineup
If you’re looking for salary relief, there are many cheap bats in the Angels’ lineup Friday night. They face Marco Gonzales, who has been hard to read this year with an ugly 5.08 xFIP / 4.99 SIERA but an impressive .271 xwOBA allowed and an ERA of just 3.19. Gonzales has been much worse on the road for his career with a .337 xwOBA on the road versus a .304 xwOBA at home. Despite an implied total of 4.59 tonight vs. Gonzalez, Mike Trout is the only hitter in the Angels’ lineup that has a price greater than $3.7k. David Fletcher is probably the best value play here, he’ll lead off and had a .319 xwOBA vs. LHP last year. Andrelton Simmons hits 3rd and had a .284 xwOBA vs. LHP last year, Albert Pujols will follow him in the order and had a .327 xwOBA vs. LHP. Further down, Kole Calhoun will not have the platoon advantage but had a solid .333 xwOBA vs. LHP and bats 7th. Mike Trout doesn’t count as a value play with a price above $5k, but is always in play especially vs. LHP.
Other tagged players: Andrelton Simmons, Mike Trout, Marco Gonzales, Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols Highest xwOBA Allowed On the Board Tonight
Jason Vargas has been horrid this year with a .440 xwOBA allowed, a 14.21 ERA, 8.17 xFIP and 63.3% hard contact rate allowed. Vargas recorded just one out in his last start, is averaging just 84.7 MPH on his fastball and flat out doesn’t look deserves to be in an MLB starting rotation. The Cardinals have a 4.93 implied total tonight which seems somewhat low given the matchup. Paul Goldschmidt (.411 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Marcell Ozuna (.395), Jose Martinez (.388), Matt Carpenter (.369), Yadier Molina (.365) have all mashed LHP and are great options tonight vs. Vargas. Paul Dejong (.290) has not seen great success vs. LHP but nonetheless is a fine option batting 3rd in a stacked Cardinals order. Jose Martinez and Yadi Molina stand out as the best value plays as the only batters in the STL lineup under $4k on Draftkings. Marcell Ozuna is the hottest hitter in the lineup with a .570 xwOBA over the past 7 days.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina, Jason Vargas, Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, Matt Carpenter Highest Flyball Rate on the Slate
Felix Pena has the highest flyball rate on the slate tonight (min 10 IP) with a 50% rate in 2019. Given the recent talk of balls being juiced, it seems advantageous to target flyball pitchers, especially flyball pitchers that are bad. In addition to his FB rate, Pena has a 5.67 xFIP and 41.2% hard contact rate compared to a 0% soft contact rate on the year. Pena gets the start vs. Seattle tonight, whose offense has hit RHP well: Dan Vogelbach (.436 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Edwin Encarnacion (.353), Ryon Healy (.327) and Jay Bruce (.321) are all potential options tonight. Mitch Haniger (.279) has not seen much success yet this year but has a career .356 wOBA vs. RHP. Mallex Smith (.264 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) is always a threat for a steal and should see his usual leadoff spot. Seattle has a 4.41 implied total vs. Pena and the Angels.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Ryon Healy, Jay Bruce, Mitch Haniger, Mallex Smith, Felix Pena Dream Matchup for 'Stros
The Astros are in Arlington tonight to take on the Rangers in an extremely friendly hitter’s park vs. a badly struggling pitcher. Drew Smyly has had a rough return to the MLB in 2019 with a horrendous 7.15 ERA, 5.56 BB/9, just a 25% GB rate and a 58.3% hard contact rate compared to just an 8.3% soft contact rate. Houston led the league last year with a 123 wRC+ vs. LHP last year and will have plenty of viable options in their lineup tonight. Jose Altuve (.388 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), George Springer (.367), Alex Bregman (.355), Carlos Correa (.337) and Michael Brantley (.308) figure to be the core of the order and should be worth their hefty prices. Tyler White had a .375 xwOBA in 72 PA vs. LHP last year and is a high-upside value option if he’s in the lineup. The Astros have a mouth-watering 5.79 implied total tonight and will likely see high ownership across all contests.
Other tagged players: Tyler White, Drew Smyly, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley Increased Slider Usage has Benefited this SP
Carlos Rodon has finally begun to flash some of the upside many thought he’d have in the big leagues. Rodon is using his fastball less (51.5% in 2019, career 60.9%) and his slider more (41.2% in 2019, career 28%) which is a trend that has generally led to good results for other pitchers. It makes sense for Rodon to use his slider more given that it has clearly been his best pitch. His slider has registered a pitch value of 1.54 per 100 pitches for his career, meanwhile his next best pitch has been his changeup at an ugly -0.41 value per 100 pitches per Fangraphs. His new pitch selection has led to a .268 xwOBA against, 30.2 % K rate and 3.64 SIERA. Given his newly-found K upside, Rodon’s price has been slow to adjust and is too cheap across the industry. Rodon gets a nice matchup tonight with the Tigers who have just a 74 wRC+ vs. LHP this year and a 23.1% K rate. Rodon will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in Todd Tichenor. The Tigers have a 4.25 implied total vs. Rodon and the ChiSox tonight.
Ideal Matchup
With Jose Martinez batting 5th tonight for the Cardinals against Jason Vargas, his salary is jumping off the page. Value bats with upside are hard to come by tonight, and Martinez gives you elite contact from the middle of one of the top projected lineups of the night. I’ll lock him in cash games on all sites and use him both in stacks and on his own where the savings are needed in tournaments.
Cheap SP in Nice Run Prevention Spot
C.C. Sabathia has quietly been a solid option the past few years, posting a sub 4 ERA, a 7.2 K/9 or higher and 148+ innings in each of his last 3 seasons. Despite the consistently decent production, his price across the industry feels too cheap, especially considering his matchup with the Royals who have just a 3.64 implied total tonight. The Royals have just a 78 wRC+ against LHP on the year and the 12th highest groundball rate at 43.2%. They’ll have just one hitter in their lineup (Whit Merrifield) who had an xwOBA above .320 vs. LHP last year (min. 100 PA). Sabathia will also have a pitcher friendly umpire in Marty Foster. There is a chance the start of this game gets delayed, so be sure to check back before lock.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield Better than surface numbers in high upside matchup
Eduardo Rodriguez flat out stunk in his first two starts on the west coast before coming back home to dominate Baltimore over the weekend. While that doesn’t really prove anything and he’s facing one of the best teams in baseball so far, there are a few things that point in his favor, at least in terms of daily fantasy consideration. Most obviously, he gets a park bump in the most pitcher friendly environment in the AL East when he travels to Tampa. The Rays have a good offensive club, but also a 28.8 K% vs LHP. While there can be an argument made about sample size, they also have a 29.2 K% at home and 25.2 K% over the last seven days. Meanwhile, despite just an average 21.7 K%, Rodriguez has exceeded a 12% swinging strike rate in two of his three starts, while his 79.2 Z-Contact% is second best on the board. There should be some strikeouts here and there’s also some evidence that some of his other numbers are likely to regress substantially as well, considering a .356 BABIP and 27.1 LD% thus far despite just 25% of his contact being above a 95 mph EV. Another small factor in his favor is a half run drop in the total since open.
The one concern might be that Tampa Bay has made a point of acquiring batters who do well against fastballs in the upper part of the zone, which is where E-Rod likes to throw his. There could be some merit in rostering players from both sides of this matchup, though players would do well to remember that Rodriguez has also been a reverse platoon pitcher (LHBs .348 wOBA, .332 xwOBA last calendar year). Austin Meadows would be the most interesting bat here. He has a 154 wRC+ and .284 ISO that are both tops in the lineup against LHP over the last year, though in just 81 PAs.
MIN-BAL postponed due to rain Friday
The game between the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles on Friday night has been postponed due to rain forecasted throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, April 20th at 4:05 pm EST as part of a traditional single-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Friday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the Baltimore Orioles via Twitter Point-Per-Dollar Pop
A hamstring injury to Harrison Bader has opened the door for Jose Martinez who is hitting fifth for the Cardinals on Friday night against Jason Vargas. The Cardinals have one of the highest implied run totals (5) on the slate as Vargas has struggled to record outs this season. Vargas has struggled mightily keeping the ball in the yard over the latter part of his career which gives Martinez some of the best point-per-dollar pop on the slate.
