DFS Alerts
More Opportunities
Odubel Herrera being placed on the IL will ultimately lead to more opportunities for the speedster Roman Quinn who disappointed with an 0-for-4 performance last night. However, despite a tough matchup, Quinn is still worth a close look if he’s in the lineup on Friday night as Coors Field plays to speed by helping inflate extra base hits.
Overlooked Righty
Marcus Stroman is going to go a bit overlooked on Friday night but a road matchup against the Athletics is actually pretty good context for him. Oakland has an extremely righty heavy lineup which makes them notably weaker against right handed pitching and the pitcher friendly O.co should help Stroman keep the ball in the yard. Stroman has notably seen a jump in his strikeout rate to start the season (24.2%) and while I wouldn’t necessarily expect that rate to hold, this still stands as a decent run prevention spot for him.
ATL-CLE postponed due to rain Friday
The game between the Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians on Friday night has been postponed due to rain forecasted throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, April 20th at approximately 7:10 pm EST as part of a traditional single-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Friday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the Cleveland Indians via Twitter
Matchup Driven
Man, I never would have thought that Anibal Sanchez would be one of my favorite cash game options in the year 2019 when guys like Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber were also on the slate, but here we are. A road matchup against the Marlins is just a little too difficult to ignore at his current price tags. Miami has a ridiculously high 30.9% strikeout rate against right handed pitching to start the season and their 65 wRC+ against righties is bottom five in the league. Sanchez isn’t a “safe” option but is arguably the top point-per-dollar option on the slate.
Top strikeout rate is blowing batters away inside the strike zone
Top strikeout rate on the board on Friday night belongs to Caleb Smith and he’s done this against three contending teams in his division (Mets, Braves, Phillies). Tonight, he takes on the remaining division foe, a deep Washington lineup (145 wRC+, 9.8 BB%, 23.3 HR/FB vs LHP), but still seems like a potentially strong mound option tonight. Considering his own 9.2 BB% as well, there will be walks, but there should also be strikeouts (Nationals 24.6 K% vs LHP). It’s not just that Smith is generating strikeouts, it’s how he’s doing it. He’s just blowing away batters inside the zone (75.3 Z-Contact% is best on the board by 3.9 points). Each of his pitches (four-seam, slider, change) exceed a 30 Whiff% according to Statcast. While his 29.7 GB% might be a concern in many parks, Miami is a perfect place for such an extreme fly ball pitcher and it doesn’t hurt that he also has the lowest aEV on the board as well (83.4 mph). There has not yet been an umpire assigned to this contest, but the sportsbooks are posting information further supporting Caleb Smith tonight. Not only has the total dropped half a run since opening, but the moneyline has moved substantially in Miami’s favor despite appearing to have a minority of actual wagers. Smith’s cost is within $400 of $8K on either site.
Pitching In The Sunshine State
There are three solid mid-tier options pitching in the state of Florida tonight. We’ve got Eduardo Rodriguez in Tampa and Anibal Sanchez and Caleb Smith squaring off in Miami. I like all three, but I side with Anibal Sanchez pitching against the hapless Marlins. While the strikeouts haven’t been there for Sanchez, he has taken the soft contact up another step, allowing just 19.6% hard hits so far this season after a strong 27.7% mark in 2018. With the low power in the Marlins lineup (28th in ISO, 26th in wOBA vs RHP), it’s hard to envision much damage being done here.
Strikeouts Lead The Way
I do not think it is an absolute necessity to pay all the way up at pitcher tonight, but if you’re able to, nobody can touch the upside of Justin Verlander. A fly ball pitcher going to Texas is a risk for power, but that risk is overruled by the extreme upside. Almost all of the Rangers power comes from the left-handed batters, and Verlander has struck out a remarkable 38.7% of lefties since the start of last season and is at 40.4% in the early going this year. Even if they do find a home run or two, the strikeouts can make up the difference.
So Many Options
This is one of those nights when we have so many elite high end options that it’s hard to narrow down to a couple of core plays. I recommend starting to split up your budget between the Rockies, Dodgers and Astros. In Texas against a fly ball lefty and a bad bullpen, Alex Bregman is a strong play in all formats. He doesn’t strike out (10.9% K vs LHP), he hits the ball in the air, and he’s equally as good against right-handed pitching (.224 ISO vs LHP, .247 ISO vs RHP) when the Rangers go to the bullpen.
Just Too Cheap
It has not been a great season yet for Blackmon, but I still don’t see any red flags here, and his salary on FD and Yahoo has come down way too far for his longterm skill set and leadoff spot on the top offense of the night. Through 18 games, his strikeout rate and hard hit rate are identical to 2018, he just has a .274 BABIP that is not going to stay that low at home. His career BABIP is .335 overall and .374 at Coors Field. Plus, even while he has yet to heat up, he has a hit in five of his last six games, so it’s not as if he’s been a zero.
Two More?
Let’s not expect the two home runs from last night to re-appear, but that was a good sign that McMahon is healthy and ready to contribute to this Rockies team. The Phillies Vince Velasquez is attackable with lefties, and McMahon is affordably priced on all sites as a way to get in play with this Rockies team for both cash games and tournament stacks. We haven’t seen enough from him to know his baseline numbers, but this is a guy who hit for a solid average with decent power in the minors and should see plenty of RBI chances tonight.
Catch Something Good
On DK and Yahoo, where we need to play a catcher, Yadier Molina is the clear top value on this slate. It’s not an easy or ideal night to spend up on someone like J.T. Realmuto or Yasmani Grandal, and with Molina, we get affordable access to another high upside offense with his low 14.3% strikeouts, high 27% line drives and 42% hard hits against an average-at-best strike throwing lefty.
Lots of balls in play and terrible defense
Felix Hernandez has a reasonable 4.38 ERA supported by a 4.12 SIERA through his first 12 innings of 2019. Maybe you’re thinking that even a 17.5 K% might not kill you on this slate for less than $8K. He’s even been pretty efficient with just one walk and a 51.2 GB%. This would seem a reasonable line of thought, but be careful of some concerning underlying numbers. Hernandez is the board worst in both SwStr (5.6%) and Z-Contact (95.7%) rates, while facing an offense that has struck out in just 15.5% of plate appearances vs RHP this year and just 15.8% overall over the last seven days. Lots of balls in play bring additional problems besides lack of upside. Hernandez has an unimpressive 89.8 mph aEV and the Seattle defense owns a major league worst -27 DRS. Only one other team is worse than -20. So, if you’re thinking about Felix tonight, you might want to think again. And we didn’t even make the obligatory mention of Mike Trout’s mastery of him. Strongly consider the top half of the home offense in this one instead. Hopefully, that includes Justin Bour (113 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Kole Calhoun (83 wRC+, .199 ISO), along with Trout, though Hernandez has shown no discernable platoon split over the last calendar year (RHBs .345 wOBA, LHBs .347).
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Felix Hernandez, Mike Trout Difficult to shut down twice in a row
Zach Davies had his best outing of the season against the Dodgers last time out (7 IP – 1 ER – 0 BB – 6 K), but can’t be expected to repeat against this dynamic offense (133 wRC+, 7.3 K-BB%, 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP) seeing him for a second straight start in a much more dangerous run environment in Milwaukee. While Davies does manage contact well (49.1 GB%, 15.1% 95+ mph EV), he generally does not miss enough bats (17.8 K%, 7.7 SwStr%). He also has a substantial platoon split with LHBs owning a .352 wOBA against him over the last calendar year and we can’t expect potent Dodger bats from that side to remain silent against him for a second straight outing. Joc Pederson (153 wRC+, .336 ISO), Corey Seager (162 wRC+, .229 ISO), Cody Bellinger (158 wRC+, .290 ISO) and Max Muncy (153 wRC+, .306 ISO) have all reigned down destruction upon right-handers over the last 12 months.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Zach Davies Under-rated lineup in a great matchup
While most of the attention is going to be on Coors tonight, the highest implied run line outside Colorado resides in Tampa Bay (5.25), despite a firmly negative run environment. Why might that be? Andrew Cashner’s 5.31 ERA does not even accurately reflect how bad he’s been this year. His 6.39 FIP is a full run higher than that. His 6.44 FIP still even higher. Cashner has just one quality start in four this year and that was against a poor Toronto offense. He has the worst strikeout rate on the board over the last two years (13.2%), this year (10.1%), on the road since last year (12.2%), and over the last two weeks (6.7%). His .427 xwOBA, 92.8 mph aEV and 52.2% 95+ mph EV are all worst on the board for this season as well. Also worst on the board, his 36.2 Hard-Soft% in 2019, while the Rays have the second best split on the board in that category tonight (33.2% – Brewers 39.8% vs LHP is best).
This is an under-rated Tampa Bay lineup. Each of the first five batters in it are above a 110 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months, while the sixth and seventh batters (Mike Zunino & Kevin Kiermaier) are above a .200 ISO against them. Tommy Pham is the only one of those first seven below a 140 wRC+ over the last week, but does so with a 53.9 Hard%. Ji-Man Choi (144 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (138 wRC+, .250 ISO) have been the overall top bats against RHP over the last year. There are very few soft spots or poor values in this lineup.
Great spot if he gets the bulk of the workload
The Rays aren’t usually very transparent with their pitching plans, but Ryan Yarbrough hasn’t pitched in six days and Yonny Chirinos pitched last night. It’s certainly very reasonable to assume Yarbrough sees the bulk of the action tonight and if he does, it’s also very reasonable to have significant exposure to him considering the rancid state of pitching on tonight’s slate. He hasn’t reached 60 pitches in an outing, so despite the premium matchup against the Orioles in a great home park, we should probably expect four to five innings. You’re also paying up to $7.4K for a 16.7 K% because the Orioles are terrible. Yarbrough’s 78.7 mph aEV and 2.8 BB% have led to a .287 xwOBA, so he should be efficient and perhaps be able to stretch his 60 or so pitches out over six innings if we’re being optimistic? This game will also feature a pitcher friendly umpire (D.J. Reyburn) and the Orioles are the only offense outside San Diego below four and a half implied runs. Therefore, Yarbrough may be the only viable option outside of San Diego.