DFS Alerts
Great value against a struggling pitcher
While Yu Darvish didn’t walk a batter in his last start, his velocity remains down and he did allow two HRs on a day when the wind was blowing in strongly at Wrigley. He gets a park upgrade in a tremendous matchup in Miami tonight, but it’s actually one of the Marlins’ bats that appears an interesting value play in this game. In a small sample, RHBs have been tougher on Darvish than LHBs over the last calendar year (.386 wOBA) and this is supported by his Statcast numbers (.385 xwOBA). Right in the middle of the Miami lineup sits Brian Anderson (113 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year), who’s off to a hot start (205 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% last seven days). The best part? Anderson costs just $2.9K on either site. If Darvish reverts and starts walking batters again, Anderson could see some RBI opportunities and if he’s on base himself, it’s not out of the question that he can steal you a base in this matchup either. It may not be the top play on the board, but it Brian Anderson may be one of the best values at his current price.
Other tagged players: Yu Darvish
New pitch has added efficiency
Martin Perez has been throwing out of the pen in longer outings this year (as many as 82 pitches). This will be his first start. He’s not normally a pitcher of interest for daily fantasy players, but there is something interesting about him this year. A brand new cutter is his second most used pitch this year (26.8%) with a 45.5 Whiff%. It remains to be seen how effective it will be in longer outings or if that’s even how the Twins will employ him this year. Perhaps he’ll be limited to two trips through the order. Perez has retained his 50% ground ball rate thus far with an impressive 71.9 Z-Contact% even if he’s getting the large majority of his swings in the strike zone (43.3 Z-O-Contact%). In a small sample, the Blue Jays have a 49 wRC+ with a 21.2 K-BB% vs LHP and have yet to hit a HR against them. Conditions are expected to be conducive to pitching tonight and Perez might be worth a shot in a secondary pitching role for just $6.4K here as not many players are expected to be on him. Beware that RHBs have a .386 wOBA against him over the last year, so this is probably not a cash play, but this new cutter could be a difference maker for the one time well regarded prospect.
Is Something Wrong?
Aaron Nola was elite against righties and lefties in 2018. He generated a lot of soft contact in the Atlanta game to open the season, but only a 16.7% and 18.2% soft contact rate in his last two starts. His strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is up. That’s the biggest concern for me, and while I think the soft contact ratio will come back, I don’t mind looking at the Mets one through four hitters tonight. Robinson Cano has a really cheap price tag on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and I think he’s playable in all formats at this price. If Nola continues to struggle with home runs, Cano could be one of the beneficiaries of that tonight.
Apparent upside on both sides of this matchup
Luis Castillo has dominated (35.2 K%, 16.7 SwStr%, 0.0 HR/FB, 57.1 GB%, 24.2 Z-O-Swing%, 74.1 Z-Contact%, 82.9 mph aEV, -8.9 H-S%). In fact, he hasn’t even allowed a barreled ball yet, tut has been very much HR prone in the past (16.9 career HR/FB) and the Dodgers mash (5.4 K-BB%, 19.4 HR/FB vs RHP). He’s throwing the same stuff at the same speed and ratios, but may be locating differently. Four-seam allowed 13 HRs, 90.6 mph aEV (15 LA) last year, but none with an 81.8 mph aEV (7 LA) this season. A look at his Statcast pitch map does seem like he’s throwing the ball more up and towards the outer part of the plate (RHB view). Castillo gets a significant park upgrade tonight and it’s interesting to note the line is moving towards the Reds (though that’s perhaps more about Kershaw being potentially over-valued right now). There’s certainly room to both consider Castillo and Dodger bats here, as a few HRs, should they occur, won’t wreck his value. Current ownership projections (Premium product) suggest his ownership could be down around 5% tonight against this fearsome lineup at a cost around $9K. Dodger bats, who have been the most productive with power against RHPs over the last calendar year include: Cody Bellinger (156 wRC+, .288 ISO), Corey Seager (157 wRC+, .219 ISO), Joc Pederson (151 wRC+, .327 ISO), Max Muncy (158 wRC+, .314 ISO) and, believe it or not, Kike Hernandez (128 wRC+, .257 ISO).
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Max Muncy, Corey Seager Low Owned Punt Play
Austin Dean started the 2018 season in AA. He had a .497 wOBA with a 1.120 OPS and a .235 ISO in 81 ABs. They quickly called him up to AAA where he had a .387 wOBA with a .871 OPS in 316 ABs. He struggled when they called him up to the Big League in the middle of August. Dean has the talent to be an everyday player for this bad Marlins team, and I’m willing to roll the dice on him tonight. Considering his price and how Darvish has struggled with control this season, I think there is some upside at this price. It’s not a lock and load type of play, but it certainly helps get some top pitching.
Workload not a deal breaker for this talented young pitcher
Joey Lucchesi was uncharacteristically lit up for seven runs by the Giants last time out, the second time they’d seen him already this year, but his overall numbers through three starts are still pretty fantastic (19.4 K-BB%, 13.8 SwStr%, 82.8 Z-Contact%, 2.5% Barrels/BBE). He also may have the premium matchup on the board at home in a great park, which Premium Subscribers can see gives a further benefit to through the Weather Edge tool, against a Colorado offense that has a 29 wRC+ (24.6 K-BB%, 4.3 HR/FB) in road games this year, continuing their annual tradition of laying eggs (goose eggs) away from Coors. They’re 3.3 implied run line is lowest on the board. Of course, the obvious for Lucchesi is cost, as he reaches $9K on DraftKings and has only even completed six innings or surpassed 90 pitches in six of his 29 career starts (more than six innings just once). So, at $9K, the question players have to ask themselves is if they’d pay $10 to $11K for him in this matchup if he were a 100-110 pitch workload kind of guy and the answer is probably yes. There’s still likely some value here if players are going to lean to heavily on his most recent outing or the fact that his workload is generally more limited than most pitchers.
Can He Continue This Career High Mark
Matt Shoemaker looks healthy this season, and when we look back to his last healthy season (2016), he was well above average. He had a 13.1% swinging strike rate in 2016, and a 21.4% strikeout rate with a 4.5% walk rate. In 19.2 innings this season, he has a 14.3% swinging strike rate with a 26.8% strikeout rate. I could see this Minnesota team struggling with Shoemakers splitter, and he continues to throw it over 30% of the time. He has a 47.27% whiff% on his splitter this season. He’s certainly had things go his way this season, but his swinging strike rate suggest he’s missing bats at a career high clip.
Low Owned Tournament Play
In 2018 Trevor Richards threw his changeup 37% to lefties and 26% to righties. He also threw his fastball 52% to lefties and 57% to righties. In three starts this season, he’s decreased his fastball usage (41% to lefties, 41% to righties) and increased the usage of his changeup. Since the start of 2016, Rizzo and Schwarber are the only two hitters from this projected lineup with a wOBA over .350 against changeups. Seven of the eight projected starters have a whiff% over 30% against changeups in that span. Richards is a large field tournament play on FanDuel, but you know the risk when taking a pitcher against a Cubs lineup with a lot of power.
Lefty Power
Dakota Hudson currently projects as a below average Big League pitcher and he’s going to have his hands full with a potent Brewers offense at hitter friendly Miller Park. Milwaukee teed off on Hudson for three HR’s in 4.1 IP the first time these teams met earlier this season and this sets up as a strong power spot for Brewers lefties. During his short MLB career, Hudson has struggled containing LHB, allowing a .427 wOBA, 19.8 BB%, 1.80 HR/9, 44 Hard% and 5.84 xFIP.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
Strikeout Upside
Monday’s leader in strikeout rate this season? Luis Castillo! Castillo has been impressive this season with a 35.2% strikeout rate and a 16.7 SwStr%. A matchup against the Dodgers is far from favorable but I still have interest in Castillo at projected single-digit ownership due to his strikeout upside.
Line movement against this top pitcher
Clayton Kershaw makes his first start of the season and will likely be on an extremely value compromising pitch count tonight. This isn’t about whether players should roster him or not tonight, but whether or not they should perhaps roster bats against him. Even at a diminished level, Kershaw is one of the better pitchers in the game, so this is really a question about upside and ownership rates. While Dodgers Stadium remains one of the most negative run environments in baseball, it’s impossible not to notice the pace at which balls have been flying out of that park (mostly off home team bats). Kershaw has allowed 40 HRs over the last two seasons (2017/18), which is not a tremendous amount, but he’s only allowed 145 for his career. Batters from either side of the plate have hit more than one-third of batted balls hard over the last calendar year, but LHBs have a ground ball rate 11.9 percentage points lower than RHBs against him over that span. The last point of interest is the line movement in this game, which has moved slightly in Cincinnati’s favor while the total is moving up. It’s probably not casual bets moving the line against Kershaw either, as it appears to be reverse line movement. At depressed prices, Cincinnati bats with power against LHP might be worth a shot tonight, no matter which side of the plate they bat from. Over the last calendar year, this includes Eugenio Suarez (.279 ISO), Matt Kemp (.251), Derek Dietrich (.202) as the only batters on the team above a .200 ISO against southpaws over that span. While Joey Votto remains a tough out (119 wRC+), his power against lefties has fallen of significantly over the past year (.127 ISO).
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Clayton Kershaw Yu Crazy
I typically don’t have a whole lot of interest in rostering pitchers who have higher walk rates than strikeout rates but….#Marlins. Miami has been the premier team to pick on this season with a 31.3% strikeout rate and 64 wRC+ versus right handed pitching. Command has been a huge issue for Darvish but he did take strides last game as he didn’t walk a single batter in 5.1 innings pitched. Despite a low strikeout rate (17.5%), Darvish has posted a respectable 11.1 SwStr% this season which seems to suggest he can generate whiffs when in control.
What's wrong with Aaron Nola?
Aaron Nola has not had a good start to the season following one where he was a consensus third best pitcher in the National League, according to Cy Young voting. He’s allowed as many HRs (five) as strikeouts over his last two starts (both against a very familiar Washington opponent). Thought he struck out eight in his first start, he still walked five Braves. While his velocity was down in his first two starts, it was similar to this point last season and increased his last time out. More good news is that his 54.5 GB% is higher than his career rate and despite an 89.9 mph aEV, his 0.0 Hard-Soft% signifies that he’s generating just as much weak contact as he is hard hit balls. Another interesting aspect is that despite just an 8.1 SwStr%, his 83.6 Z-Contact% and 27.0 Z-O-Swing% are both elite. However, that’s because he’s not throwing as many strikes (43.3 Zone%, 47.7 F-Strike%) and batters are swinging less overall (Swing% down 8.3 points from last season). His 72.5 Contact% is, by far, a career high.
This is a lot of words to suggest he’s just not throwing strikes. The more he falls behind, the more batters can sit on his four-seam fastball, increased from 36% to 42% this season. Each of his three most frequent pitches (four-seam, curve, change) all have higher exit velocities and lower whiff rates this season because he’s giving away a big advantage, always pitching behind in the count. As for why this is happening or how close it is to being corrected, that’s difficult to say. What we do know is that he’s facing another difficult and patient division opponent (Mets 105 wRC+, 10.2 BB%, 14.6 HR/FB vs RHP this season), which theoretically makes him a difficult roster tonight with certain caveats. First, weather conditions appear to be very pitcher friendly in Philadelphia with a strong wind blowing in from left (check Weather Page & new Premium Weather Edge) and we do not yet have weather information for this game. Premium subscribers may also want to consider the matter of ownership. A higher number may make him ripe for a fade considering recent issues, but the talent always makes him worth a shot should he appear to be under-owned.
High Leverage Stack
Stacking against Matt Shoemaker could be a sneaky way to get leverage on the field. Shoemaker is currently projected to be the fourth highest owned SP on DraftKings (14%). The Blue Jays righty passes the eye test with a 0.92 ERA through 19.2 innings but some of his underlying numbers suggest he’s been running a bit pure. Shoemaker has done a great job inducing ground balls this season (54.3 GB%) but I’m skeptical he’ll be able to keep that rate up as he hasn’t changed his pitch mix and has a career 40.4 GB%. Shoemaker hasn’t been able to induce much soft contact (15.2%) and he’s been lucky allowing just a .159 BABIP and stranding 90.2% of base runners. While Shoemaker still rates out as a better than average pitcher, he’s not nearly as good as his early season ERA suggests and I would rather target him with low-owned bats than roster him as a relatively high-owned pitcher.
Other tagged players: Max Kepler, C.J. Cron, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco Nothing Wrong Here
The seven runs allowed by Joey Lucchesi in San Francisco last week might raise a red flag, but it looks like nothing more than a bad luck start. He had a .467 BABIP against him on just 26% hard hits, while getting a big 15.8% swinging strike rate. So far this season, the injury riddled Rockies rank 29th in ISO and 30th in wOBA on the road. There are two dangerous right-handed bats and then a bunch of easy outs in this lineup for Lucchesi. On FD, I’m willing to look his way in cash games if I can’t get up to Trevor Bauer, and he’s a strong SP2 on all sites.
