DFS Alerts
Cheap Leadoff Option for Main Slate
Socrates Brito will lead off for the Jays on Friday night vs. Shane Bieber and comes at a very affordable price across the industry. Brito is an intriguing power-speed guy (17 HRs, 15 SB, 140 wRC+ in 478 PA in AAA last year) who matches up well with Bieber. Bieber was pretty bad vs. LHB last year (.355 xwOBA, 1.26 HR/9). He also stays around the zone often, possibly too often with a 4.7% BB rate in 2018 and a 6.6% BB rate vs. LHB. This could be a positive for Brito, who is a bit of a free-swinger as he projects for a 25.6% K rate and 5.9% BB rate per steamer. Working against Brito is the Jays’ ice cold lineup, which comes in at a 23rd ranked .287 xwOBA on the year and was almost no-hit again Thursday night.
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber
The slider was not the problem for Gray in first Cincy start
Remember when Sonny Gray complained about the Yankees making him throw all those sliders? Well, he threw just eight of them (11%) in his first start for the Reds, along with 33 four-seam fastballs (45.8%). The velocity on the pitch was down from 93.3 mph to 91.8 and, as a result, the pitch had a 97.3 mph aEV on four BBE. A small sample to be sure, but Gray walked four Pirates without striking out any (5.6 SwStr%) in the outing and now faces the same lineup again. On the upside, Gray did generate a 69.2 GB%, but these are certainly not the results he was looking for and there should be some concern if he pitches similarly tonight. Pittsburgh is a lesser offensive park than Cincinnati, but it plays fairly to LHBs and even though Gray has shown a bit of a reverse split since last season, lefties did have a .340 xwOBA some 21 points higher than RHBs against him last year. Adam Frazier (133 wRC+, .198 ISO) appears to be the value play here atop the lineup at just $3.8K on DraftKings. If Gray struggles with his location and command once again, at the very least, Frazier would seem fairly likely to put a run or two on the board and shouldn’t be too popular a middle infield option with the Pirates only implied for around four runs.
Other tagged players: Sonny Gray
Struggling Offense Looks for Positive Regression Tonight
Frankie Montas pitched an excellent first game of the season against the Angels last week, going six innings and allowing only one run on three hits, but he is still holds a lifetime 4.73 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP, and he faces a dangerous Astros offense tonight in Houston. The Astros have struggled to start the season, averaging just over 2 runs a game, however this lineup ranked 6th in wOBA and 7th in team OPS last year. I’ll be targeting the big names in this lineup at the top of the order – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa – hoping that Montas runs into trouble early tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
Left-Hander Faces Dangerous Lineup Tonight
Jose Quintana is a decent pitcher with a 4.39 SIERA and a 8.16 K/9 last season, but he draws a difficult matchup on the road against the Brewers tonight. Milwaukee ranked 10th in wOBA against left-handers last season and features dangerous right-handed hitters in Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, and Lorenzo Cain. For GPPs, another option is left-handed hitter Christian Yelich, who had a .983 OPS against left-handed pitchers last season.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar Underpriced Pitcher Faces Strikeout-Happy Lineup
Felix Pena put up decent numbers for the Angels last season, with a 4.08 SIERA and 8.26 K/9, but he draws a high-upside matchup against the Rangers in Anaheim tonight. The Rangers ranked 5th in team K% against right-handed pitching last season at 24.4%, and so far this season they rank 10th at 26%. Pena and the Angels are slight favorites at home tonight and Pena is underpriced for the matchup across sites.
Speed Upside
Friday’s slate is a bit interesting – there are a ton more value options on FanDuel than there are on DraftKings but DK is where you need the value if trying to jam in both Beiber and McHugh at SP. On FD, Dyson is one of my favorite value options in the OF as the speedster has been leading off for the Diamondbacks against RHP. Porcello has struggled against lefties throughout his career, allowing a .339 wOBA against and posting just a 16.6% strikeout rate. Furthermore, Porcello has been slightly below average in terms of stolen base prevention throughout his career with a -3 rSB, which gives Dyson some upside on the base paths.
Jury Still Out
I wanted to touch on Trent Thornton because I think there’s a chance he gains some steam if Jose Ramirez is out of the lineup for the Indians. Admittedly, I don’t know a ton about Thornton but I do think it’s safe to say not to expect a repeat of his season debut against the Tigers when he struck eight Detroit hitters out over five scoreless innings. Thornton doesn’t need a repeat performance to pay of his cheap price tag but there’s certainly some risk in the unknown here. Thornton is a guy I’m likely to be underweight on but I have no qualms with using him in GPPs if JoRam is in fact unable to suit up.
Remarkable Splits
This may be the first time you’re hearing it this season but it certainly won’t be the last – Lance Lynn is #notgood against lefty hitters. Lynn’s splits are actually remarkable for someone that has been in the Bigs as long as he has. Lynn’s career #‘s vs LHB: .347 wOBA, 17.5 K%, 12.7 BB%, 5.01 xFIP. Lynn’s career #‘s vs RHB: .279 wOBA, 26.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 3.07 xFIP. The bottom line is that lefty batters are always in play against Lynn and Kole Calhoun has an exploitable price tag across the industry.
Gausman Returns from IR
Kevin Gausman is expected to return from the injured list on Friday night to make his 2019 debut against the Marlins. While Gausman is priced accurately most places, his price tag on FanDuel ($7,200) stands out as way too cheap when you combine his talent with a favorable home matchup. The Marlins have been the most strikeout prone team against right handed pitching (31.8% k rate) to start the season, and while that number will certainly regress, they still project to be one of the weakest offenses the remainder of the year. I’m not too worried about Gausman being limited as he threw 90 pitches in his Minor League rehab start, which puts him right around the same number of pitches most starters will see their first couple of starts.
Lefties Hitting The Ball Hard
Rick Porcello has some decent overall skills and throws a lot of strikes, but he’s been unable to limit hard contact against lefties, over 40% each of the past two seasons with a combined .210 ISO and .341 wOBA to LHB from 2017-2018. David Peralta and Eduardo Escobar are the two bats most prepared to take advantage here. Peralta had a huge 52% hard hit rate against righties last season with a .251 ISO, while Escobar’s fly ball lean led to a .255 ISO. Peralta looks underpriced on DK/FDRFT with Escobar being a standout value on FD/Yahoo.
Lefties Hitting The Ball Hard
Rick Porcello has some decent overall skills and throws a lot of strikes, but he’s been unable to limit hard contact against lefties, over 40% each of the past two seasons with a combined .210 ISO and .341 wOBA to LHB from 2017-2018. David Peralta and Eduardo Escobar are the two bats most prepared to take advantage here. Peralta had a huge 52% hard hit rate against righties last season with a .251 ISO, while Escobar’s fly ball lean led to a .255 ISO. Peralta looks underpriced on DK/FDRFT with Escobar being a standout value on FD/Yahoo.
Still Good After All These Years
Ryan Braun gets older every year according to his birth certificate, but he just keeps on hitting against left-handed pitchers. In 2018, he had the highest hard hit rate in all of baseball against lefties at 56.1% with a high 26% line drive rate and a .281 ISO. He doesn’t strike out, he’ll take a walk and he’s still stealing 10+ bases every season. He hits third for one of the best offenses in the league and faces an average pitcher in Jose Quintana in one of the only good hitting environments on the slate.
Throwing Strikes
Continuing with the theme of the lack of strong pitching options, Shane Bieber joins Collin McHugh at the top of my list. He had issues with hard hits to lefties in his rookie season, but showed a lot of promise with solid 24.3% strikeouts and low 4.7% walks. He faces a Toronto team that doesn’t have much left-handed power to be concerned with and has been just awful to start the 2019 season. In Bieber’s first start of the season, there may be a cap on his upside, but he’s viable in all formats on this tough pitching slate.
Tough Night For Pitching
There is not a single trustable ace on this slate tonight. The best 2018 skills by far belonged to Collin McHugh. It comes with the caveat that he pitched in the bullpen last season, so we can’t assume a repeat of his 33.2% K and 7.4% BB and certainly not his 1.99 ERA, but he did look great in his first start, striking out nine Rays in five innings. The last time we saw him as a starter in 2017, he was an above average pitcher, and if he can fall somewhere between the 2017-2018 numbers, he’ll be a useful DFS arm this season. It’s not a night to go all-in at pitcher, but I’ll start with McHugh.
Justin Smoak (neck) scratched Thursday; Alen Hanson replaces
Smoak has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to a sore neck. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Alen Hanson, who will now play second base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Socrates Brito all the way up to the two-hole and shifts Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to first base defensively. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Trevor Bauer on the road this evening.
As reported by: Hazel Mae via Twitter Other tagged players: Alen Hanson