DFS Alerts
Paddack Looking to Build on Strong Debut
Chris Paddack posted dominant numbers at every stop in the minors and earned some impressive projections from usually-conservative projection systems heading into the year. He lived up to the hype in his first start against the Giants, allowing just 1 ER and posting a 7/1 K/BB in 79 pitches over 5 IP. The hope is that the Padres will let Paddack work deeper into games, as his upside is capped if he’s only throwing 80 pitches per start. He faces a decent Cardinals offense this afternoon but will hold the platoon advantage against 6 of 9 hitters. St. Louis owned a 16th ranked 96 wRC+ vs. RHP last year and had four guys (Carpenter, Goldschmidt, Ozuna, Dejong) with a xwOBA vs. RHP above .325. This might be the last time for a while that the talented young righty is available under $10k on both DK and FD. The Cards have an implied line of 3.89 vs. Paddack and the Padres.
Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
Former Top Prospect Showing Increased Velocity
Lucas Giolito’s 2018 was one to forget. His first full season saw him post a 6.13 ERA / 5.46 xFIP with a 4.5% K-BB. He showed encouraging signs in his first 2019 start vs. KC, averaging 94 MPH on his fastball (averaged 92.8 in 2018) and posting a solid 14.1% SwStr (up from 8.3% in 2018) to go with an 8/1 K/BB ratio. Giolito will look to continue his hot start vs. a middling Mariners’ offense. Although the Mariners did not project all that well heading into the season, they do deserve credit for their numbers so far in 2019 (.344 xwOBA ranks 6th in the league). Still, Seattle’s lineup has just 3 guys who posted an xwOBA vs. RHP above .320 in 2018 (Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, Mitch Haniger). Giolito is very affordable across the industry and makes for an interesting GPP play, albeit one with plenty of risk given Seattle’s 4.61 implied total.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Mitch Haniger Bang For Your Buck
A lot of the high priced hitters are largely indistinguishable on Saturday night but there appears to be one clear value play on the slate in Chad Pinder. Some of Pinder’s value is contingent on if he draws a top five spot in the A’s lineup against the southpaw Wade Miley but this remains a good spot regardless for Pinder and the A’s. I spoke a bit about Miley’s expected regression from last season as the lefty pitched well above his head. Sure, Miley’s reliance on a newfound Cutter helped drive some of that success but his low career strikeout rate (18.5%) and wOBA allowed (.336) to right hitters paint a different picture than simply his 2018 ERA. Pinder has shown a strong skill-set against lefties in his career with a 124 wRC+ and has flashed some pop as well with a .188 ISO against southpaws.
Whiff Heavy Lineup
Look, I know Happ struggled in his first start against Baltimore this season, and that James Paxton just struggled against this same club a couple of days ago, but despite their recent success, the Orioles still project to be one of the worst offenses in the league. Baltimore’s expected lineup projects to have six hitters with projected strikeout rates north of 23% against left handed pitching this season. Such a whiff heavy lineup gives Happ both the highest floor and ceiling on a slate that’s not particularly deep with strong pitching options.
Safest Value Option?
Kyle Wright had a tough 2019 debut as he issued five free passes, allowed three earned runs, and only lasted 4.1 innings against the Phillies. Fortunately for him, his matchup on Saturday is much more friendly as the Braves host a Marlins team that is currently tied for the lowest implied run total on the slate (3.7). To no surprise, Miami has been terrible offensively this season and they’re also striking out a ton, leading the league with a 31.9% strikeout rate against right handed pitching. There are a lot of question marks surrounding SP2 on multi-pitching sites but Wright seems like the “safest” value option simply due to matchup.
A highly contrarian pitcher featuring a new pitch
Frankie Montas impressed with six strikeouts (28.6 K%) and a league average 10.4 SwStr% in his first start. Impressed because a double digit SwStr% is something he reached in just four of 11 starts last year. It’s suggested that a new split finger pitch (instead of a changeup), which he threw 22.1% of the time in his first spot may be responsible for the improved results, which also included a 64.3 GB% against the Angels. The new splitter generated a 36.4 Whiff%. The Astros are certainly a more difficult opponent and even have the highest implied run line on the board (4.7), but Houston is a negative run environment and is likely to feature very limited ownership because he’s not even that cheap ($8K). Montas is also a pitcher who featured a substantial platoon split last year, holding RHBs to a .291 wOBA with a 52.7 GB% and the Astros feature a predominantly right-handed lineup. A strong performance on a night on a night without a lock down pitcher on the board could boost someone’s GPP chances.
Justin Smoak (neck) scratched Friday; Billy McKinney replaces
Smoak has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to a sore neck that’s now forced him to miss two consecutive games. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Billy McKinney, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Smoak’s vacated third spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Shane Bieber on the road this evening.
As reported by: Mike Wilner via Twitter Other tagged players: Billy McKinney
Rangers Stack In Play Vs. Pena
One not-so-obvious stack tonight could be the Rangers vs. Felix Pena. Pena is a 4.58 ERA / 4.04 SIERA pitcher in 139.2 innings at the MLB level. He is particularly worse vs. LHB with a career .329 xwOBA, 7.4 K-BB% and 1.27 HR/9 allowed in his career. The Rangers have some solid bats vs. RHP, namely Shin-Soo Choo (.393 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Joey Gallo (.371), Nomar Mazara (.359), Asdrubal Cabrera (.330) and Rougned Odor (.328). Choo seems very underpriced across the industry given he will likely be leading off and has a history of great production vs. RHP. Mazara is very affordable as well, he should bat middle of the order tonight and is a guy who has hit RHP consistently well in his young career. Asdrubal Cabrera has started off the year hot with 3 bombs and a 189 wRC+ and is an intriguing option at a shallow position tonight.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rougned Odor, Felix Pena A 2018 Exit Velocity leader
Kevin Gausman is one of the more expensive pitchers on the board and likely to be fairly popular facing the Marlins at home in his 2019 debut, but he’s been limited this spring with a shoulder issue. Another expensive pitcher is Collin McHugh, also projecting as one of the most popular pitchers on the board. He led all of today’s pitchers with an 86 mph aEV last year, working out of the bullpen for the Astros. However, the pitcher tied with McHugh for the lowest aEV on the board (86 mph) last season is Gausman’s opponent, Pablo Lopez of the Marlins. In his first start this season, Lopez generated a swing and miss on 15 of his 82 pitches thrown. In 2018, batters from either side of the plate had both a wOBA and xwOBA below .330 against him. While the Braves are not the ideal opponent, they make contact and have some dangerous bats, Lopez does cost just $6.6K on DraftKings in a game which may feature some pitcher friendly umpiring (Eric Cooper).
Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman, Collin McHugh Astros in a Nice Spot vs. Montas
The Astros are another underwhelming team thus far in 2018 with just a 16th ranked .311 xwOBA. They face Frankie Montas tonight, who is a 4.73 ERA / 4.47 SIERA pitcher in 118 big league innings. In 65 innings in 2018, Montas was able to limit power (0.69 HR/9) but posted a K-BB of just 7.8% and allowed a hard contact rate of 46.1%. He is definitely not someone to avoid vs. an Astros lineup that is finally returning to full strength. Michael Brantley stands out batting 4th with a .374 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017 and a cheaper price tag than the rest of the Astros mid-order bats. Bregman (.359 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017), Springer (.352), Altuve (.357) and Correa (.348) are all in play on a slate where there isn’t a ton else to pay up for, especially with pitching. Houston currently has a 4.74 implied total vs. Montas and the A’s.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, George Springer, Frankie Montas Red Sox Hitters Looking to Turn it Around
The Red Sox have underwhelmed thus far compared to their dominant 2018, they currently own a middling 14th best xwOBA with a .316 mark so far in 2019 after ranking 1st with a .343 xwOBA in 2018. Tonight they face Zack Godley, who is coming off a rough 2018 that saw him post a 4.74 ERA / 4.18 SIERA. Godley does a good job limiting power (0.81 HR/ in 2018) but allows plenty of baserunners (1.45 WHIP in ’18) which doesn’t matchup well vs. a Red Sox team that ranked 1st with a .344 OBP vs. RHP in 2018. J.D. Martinez (.428 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Mookie Betts (.424), Mitch Moreland (.382) Andrew Benintendi (.376) and Xander Bogaerts (.366) are all upside plays in the middle of the Sox order. Moreland in particular is a nice value batting 3rd and very affordable across the industry. Rafael Devers (.324) and Blake Swihart (.301) are also in play batting 6th and 7th, respectively.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, Rafael Devers, Zack Godley Impressive debut and facing a depleted lineup
Trent Thornton is not a major prospect, just a 45 Future Value grade slapped on his Fangraphs page, but he does seem to have a few quality pitches to go along with decent velocity (93.8 mph in debut). He put up a 17.6 K-BB% in 124.1 AAA innings for the Astros last year and struck out eight of 17 Tigers (12 SwStr%) in his major league debut last week. While it may seem like Cleveland is a major step up in competition the team is currently sporting a team 39 wRC+ on the young year. On the other end, Shane Bieber struck out two of eight Twins in a relief appearance, but gets his first start here. Bieber has excellent peripherals since last season (19.6 K-BB%), but major issues with LHBs (.382 wOBA, 47.8 Hard%). The Blue Jays don’t offer much resistance in that department with only Justin Smoak (132 wRC+, .243 ISO) and Rowdy Tellez (220 wRC+, .394 ISO) being above average hitters against RHP from that side over the last calendar year. Smoak is currently in the lineup, but dealing with an injury as well. Bieber is the second most expensive pitcher on either site, but Thornton costs a modest $6.2K on DraftKings, where he’s not expected to be significantly owned (Projected Ownership for all available to Premium subscribers).
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber Blue Jays Have Lowest Implied Total Tonight
Shane Bieber faces a struggling Blue Jays lineup that has ranked 23rd in xwOBA so far on the year and has an implied total of 3.47, lowest on the board tonight. On a night with many iffy SP options, Bieber might be the safest option besides Colin McHugh. The Blue Jays have almost been no-hit multiple times this year and don’t have any particularly threatening hitters with Vlad Jr. likely not being called up for at least a few more weeks. Bieber has solid K upside, he posted a 24.3% K rate last year. His low BB rate (4.7%) lets him work deep into games, but he is prone to getting shelled if he is around the plate too often. Working against Bieber tonight will be a potential lack of run support, as the Indians are without their top two hitters in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez and have an implied total of just 4.03 despite facing a below average pitcher in Trent Thornton.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Trent Thornton Collin McHugh Arguably the Best SP Option Tonight
McHugh’s matchup is not a great one in terms of opponent. He’ll face an Athletics offense that ranked 3rd in baseball with a 112 wRC+ in 2018. The A’s have not started out quite as well as their 2018 numbers, as they’ve posted a 19th ranked .303 xwOBA so far in 2019. Six of the nine Athletics batters will be righties, which plays to McHugh’s advantage. McHugh has been dominant vs. RHB since 2017 with a .260 xwOBA allowed, as opposed to a .329 xwOBA allowed vs. LHP. McHugh will be at home, where he’s been much more effective with a .269 xwOBA allowed at home versus a .307 xwOBA on the road since 2017. McHugh’s juicy 11.7 K/9 last year was a result of him throwing out of the bullpen, but he’s seen decent K/9 numbers as a starter with an 8.63 mark in 2016 and 8.81 in 2017 coming as a starter. The A’s have a 3.76 implied total vs. McHugh Friday night.
Possible punt Catcher and OF value bat in Arizona
The game in Arizona does not present imposing run totals, while the humidor has negative impacted the run environment, but none the less, a couple of not entirely obvious batters stand out against two pitchers who struggled their first time out. David Peralta has an impressive 155 wRC+, .262 ISO and 52.1 Hard% against RHP over the last year, while LHBs had a .351 xwOBA against Rick Porcello last season (39.6 Hard%). While the normal candidates stand out for Boston as well, players could consider “punting” their Catcher position with Blake Swihart as well. Swihart has been an above average hitter (116 wRC+, .154 ISO) vs RHP over the last calendar year and has started this season with hard contact on three of his six batted balls so far.
Other tagged players: David Peralta, Rick Porcello, Zack Godley