DFS Alerts
Worth paying up for pitching tonight?
Three pitchers exceed the $10K mark on both sites and all seem to be decent values as well on a solid pitching board, but not one where a lot of pitchers stand out as great values. Jacob deGrom (31.9 K%, 2.85 SIERA, .257 xwOBA) will be motivated in Washington. He should be able to wrap up a Cy Young with a solid effort here. The Nationals are a tough assignment with just a 10.2 K-BB% vs RHP, but deGrom has struck out at least nine in eight of his last nine starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs since April 10th. Ironically, the last time he faced Washington was right after that start. He’s the SP1 on both sites at a bit above $12K on either. Gerrit Cole (34.7 K%, 2.93 SIERA, .285 xwOBA) has struck out eight or nine in four straight with underlying numbers about as strong as deGrom’s this year, though he’s averaging about an out or two less per start. He’s also facing a contact prone team (Angels 21.1 K% vs RHP), but in one of the most negative run environments in baseball in Houston. Cole has more value on FanDuel, where he’s $1.3K less than deGrom. On DraftKings, he’s just $400 less. German Marquez (26.7 K%, 3.48 SIERA, .297 xwOBA) is the newly minted $10K man. He tops the board with a 36.4 K% and 2.21 SIERA over the last month. Arizona is a significant park upgrade for him and the home offense has just an 83 wRC+ there and an 81 wRC+ with a 24.1 K% vs RHP. It’s also necessary to mention both Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer because they are each above $10K on DraftKings only. However, both pitchers are recently returned from injury (first start back for Bauer) and are expected to be limited as the only concern is being ready for the post-season for both these teams at this point.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, German Marquez, Chris Sale, Trevor Bauer
The Power Looks Real
Stewart is likely to be popular after this two-HR night on Thursday, but at this salary, it’s tough to pass on him. Ian Kennedy allows an extreme amount of hard contact and fly balls to left-handed batters and has been one of the most homer prone pitchers in the league over the past few season. Stewart hit 23 HR in Triple-A this season, and has hit for power with a fly ball lean at every level he’s played at.
Power Bat Against Power Prone Pitcher
It’s been a lost season for the Tigers, which has somewhat concealed the fact that Nick Castellanos is a star. Because his home run total doesn’t jump off the page, it’s easy to overlook his .299 average, .356 OBP, .500 SLG and 48% hard hit rate. Even playing for one of the worst teams in the league, he has managed to top 80 runs and RBI and his hard hit line drives, when not turning into homers, have put him 6th in the league in doubles. Ian Kennedy is a below average pitcher who doesn’t have the stuff to get past Castellanos.
Doesn't Feel Great, But The Skills Are There
Trusting Luis Castillo has not been a feel-good story this season. But, his early season struggles are pretty far in the rearview, and he’s had just a couple rocky starts against tough opponents in the second half and has otherwise been very solid. He has a 2.79 ERA since the All-Star Break on the strength of a 27.6% K rate with just 5.6% walks. Besides the obvious of liking a pitcher in Miami due to the good ballpark and the bad lineup, the splits are also ideal against a heavily right-handed Miami lineup. Nearly all of Castillo’s problems have been against lefties, with a 24.6% K rate, 5.6% BB and 52% GB to righties. The biggest lefty threats for Miami are Derek Dietrich and J.T. Riddle, and then it’s a bunch of low power righties with no patience.
A Fine One-Off Power Target
Travis Shaw has our highest RG PlateIQ score of the day, and it’s a great matchup for him against Ivan Nova. It hasn’t been the greatest of seasons for Shaw, but he still has plenty of power and upside against RHP, and he has great BvP history against Nova. I’m not a huge BvP fan, but 12-for-19 with five extra base hits is good enough to know that Shaw can see the ball well from this pitcher. I’m not huge on a full MIL stack tonight, but I love Shaw, and maybe another lefty bat like Yelich as one-off plays.
A Sneaky Tournament Stack?
The Phillies have faded from the playoff race and faded from the mind of most DFS players, and you can bet that they won’t be owned at all this evening. Julio Teheran has always had wide splits that favor targeting LHBs against him, and the Phillies might roll out five or six lefties in their lineup tonight. That could include some cheap power options like Justin Bour and/or Odubel Herrera, and higher-end plays like Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera. These guys won’t wow you with their stats, but I like the price tags and the possibility of low ownership with power upside.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Odubel Herrera, Asdrubal Cabrera Play The Lefties Here
Ivan Nova is a pitcher with drastic splits. His 21.2% K rate to righties drops all the way to 12.3% against lefties, where he’s allowed a .215 ISO with his drop to just average ground balls. In hunting for power bats, it’s a good thing that Nova is always in the strike zone. Travis Shaw has a strong 80% contact rate to go along with his big power with his 48% fly balls, 41% hard hit rate and .286 ISO against righties.
Looks Like The Same Old Guy
Jay Bruce is still priced as if he’s fresh off the DL and is being punished for his bad early season numbers. He looks all the way back to his usual self, with a .298 ISO and .379 wOBA in September and hitting fly balls just like always. Joe Ross is an unknown in his second start off the DL, but he didn’t strikeout a batter in his first start, and earlier in his career pre-injury, he was very splitsy, allowing a .364 wOBA and 1.36 HR/9 to lefties.
Top Targets in a Favorable Home Matchup
The Rangers have been a terrible offense away from Arlington since the All Star break, but they are certainly a better unit to target when they are playing at home. They draw a fine matchup against Erasmo Ramirez tonight, a pitcher who has never had sustained success at the MLB level and allowed three home runs in four innings during his last start against the Angels. The power bats for the Rangers make a great upside GPP stack tonight, putting the likes of Choo, Odor, and Gallo near the top of the list, with Elvis Andrus being a worthwhile value target.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus A Dangerous Risk/Reward GPP Option
It’s very hard to trust Wei-Yin Chen. I know that. It’s also hard to put a ton of stock into home/road splits. I know that. However, we have almost a full year of data with him with EXTREMELY wide splits, so there’s reason behind trusting his splits at this point. Chen has a 1.77 ERA in home starts this year, which would put him in the Cy Young discussion. He has a 9.29 ERA in road starts, which would put him on a bus to the minor leagues. He has held LHBs to a .180 wOBA in those home starts, which will give him an advantage over some of the more dangerous hitters in this Reds lineup, too. If you are looking to save with a pitcher selection tonight, Chen makes the most sense.
Salary Matters
Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole headline the slate tonight, and if salary were not a thing, these would be the guys to start with. I would love to pay up to deGrom in cash games, but it may be tough tonight. Rich Hill comes in at a significant savings at home against the Padres. There is very little gap in recent performance between Hill and Cole, with Hill striking out 7-8 batters in six straight starts and piling up wins for this good Dodgers team. Hill’s strikeouts have been trending up all season, up from 27.3% to 29.7% in the second half and 34.2% in the past month. The risk of right-handed power from San Diego is outweighed by the high strikeouts of their power bats.
The Top Option on a Night Full of Aces?
We have a lot of top tier pitchers on the mound tonight, but there are question marks with many of them. Chris Sale is still ramping up his pitch count slowly. Trevor Bauer hasn’t pitched in a big league game in over a month. Other pitchers will likely be limited because of teams reserving them for the playoffs. deGrom is one of the only aces who doesn’t have any of these limitations. He has been woefully unlucky in the win department this year, but that is the only element he cannot control. His pitching has been nothing short of elite on all counts, with a 1.78 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, and 32% strikeout rate. Even in a matchup against an occasionally dangerous Nationals offense, I can’t argue for anyone else as my preferred GPP arm this evening.
Strong Power Spot
We don’t have a ton of data on Joe Ross but the data we do have points to Ross having trouble getting left handed batters out. Ross only has five Big League innings under his belt this season but owns a career 4.66 xFIP against lefties. The Mets get a favorable park boost with this game being played in Washington and lefty hitters see a small power uptick with Nationals Park giving up HRs to right field at an above average rate. Bruce owns a career .230 ISO against right handed pitching and this is a strong power spot for the veteran slugger.
Salary Filler If Needed
I have a confession to make: sometime after the All-Star Break while I was still grinding MLB cash games hard, I got my soul owned by a guy that would play me every night and just stack the Kansas City Royals. You would have to ask that guy to know for sure but I think the Royals are in another pretty good spot on Friday night as they travel to Detroit to take on Francisco Liriano and the Tigers. Unfortunately I don’t have a ton of great things to say about Hunter Dozier and he doesn’t really have the speed to take advantage of Liriano’s stolen base woes but Liriano’s 5.09 SIERA is worth targeting even with below average offensive players. Dozier is not a primary target of mine but I’m fine using him as a salary filler if needed.
Cost Effective Exposure
You’re going to want to have exposure to this SEA/TEX game and Ryon Healy is one of the most cost effective ways to do it. Both teams have an implied run total of 5+ runs as Arlington provides the best offensive environment of the night. I am more interested in the game environment than I am with Ryon Healy’s skill-set but Healy has shown a little bit of power with a .189 ISO throughout his career. Healy’s numbers are better against southpaws and he should see a couple of ABs against LHP as this is a bullpen game for a Rangers team that is loaded with lefty pitchers.