DFS Alerts
Affordable lineup with a massive park upgrade
A massive park boost and a matchup with a 26 year-old rookie who hasn’t exceeded an 18 K% at any level since 2012 shoots the Rays to the top of the board with 5.66 implied runs in Texas. No other team is within one-half run. Behind Adrian Sampson, making his second start, the Texas bullpen is one of the worst in the league (5.33 FIP, 11.3 K-BB% last 30 days). Each of the first six batters in the lineup are above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Ji-Man Choi (140 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (133 wRC+, .230 ISO) have shown the most power. This is a very stack worthy lineup and fairly affordable in most spots as well. Not a single Tampa Bay bat is above $3.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Brandon Lowe, Adrian Sampson
HR prone pitcher with large platoon split facing power filled lineup
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 20 HRs in 18 starts. He moves away from Cincinnati tonight, but Milwaukee is a very dangerous park as well with a very dangerous lineup. DeSclafani has a significant split (LHBs .377 wOBA) and while the Brewers send up only four from that side against him, all four are above a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP this year. That ground includes Curtis Granderson (126 wRC+, .209 ISO), MVP candidate Christian Yelich (152 wRC+, .257 ISO), Travis Shaw (131 wRC+, .291 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (116 wRC+, .239 ISO). At 5.14, the Brewers are just one of two teams above five implied runs tonight.
Other tagged players: Anthony DeSclafani, Curtis Granderson, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas Min-priced leadoff bat in decent spot against reverse splits righty
Despite the extremely negative run environment in Miami, the Nationals have a 4.68 implied run line that’s currently a top five mark on the board. Trevor Richards has struggled of late and has a large reverse split. RHBs have a .368 wOBA and 47.3 Hard% against him in his rookie season. The interesting play here is rookie Victory Robles, inserted into the leadoff spot. He costs the minimum on FanDuel, but is more than twice that on DraftKings. Anthony Rendon (130 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP this year) could be the other under the radar bat in this matchup. He costs less than any of the LHBs surrounding him.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Trevor Richards Two bats should be able to handle whatever poor bullpen throws at them
The Twins will be throwing a porous bullpen (5.51 FIP, 10 K-BB% last 30 days) at the Tigers in Detroit tonight. Gabriel Moya will open for the third time, but has not exceeded nine batters in an outing this year. Jeimer Candelario (130 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP this year) and Nick Castellanos (182 wRC+, .206 ISO) will likely give him the most trouble at the top of the lineup and both hit RHP well enough where a pitching change shouldn’t hurt them too much. Despite the uncertainty in Minnesota’s pitching plans tonight, the state of their bullpen has factored into Detroit’s 4.59 implied run line tonight, a number exceeded by only a handful of teams tonight.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Gabriel Moya Top Hitter of the Slate
The Brewers have an easy matchup to break down. If you read the blurb on Anthony DeSclafani, then you already know where I am going with this. He has been tough on righties (.276 xwOBA allowed on a 50% ground ball rate), but has given up a .366 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties. Christian Yelich has been red-hot at the plate and is my favorite hitter of the entire slate. He boasts a .422 xwOBA and a .257 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Swinging a Hot Bat
The Orioles are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they draw an exploitable matchup against Ryan Borucki. In addition to having a low-strikeout rate, he has allowed .351 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Jonathan Villar is by far my favorite play here and I consider him an elite play in all formats. He boasts a .336 xwOBA and an ISO of .185 against left-handed pitching this season.
One of the Best Pitchers in Baseball Since the All-Star Break
Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break. If we look at his last three starts, he has posted a 2.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 3%. I’m typically hesitant to target pitchers against the Phillies, especially in this ballpark, but it’s hard to ignore the numbers that Wheeler has been putting up. The Phillies have plenty of firepower offensively, but their projected lineup also carries a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Good Form for this Cheap SP2
Erick Fedde has a high ERA this season, but his advanced statistics suggest some positive regression moving forward. In eight starts, he has a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 54%. With good control, he has a very appealing skill set when it comes to DFS. While he’s pitching on the road, he gets to face a Marlins’ lineup that has a .291 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Hedge Life
Even though I like Suarez tonight, on teams that I don’t have him, I’ll be taking some shots against him. Franmil Reyes has crushed left-handed pitching since being called up, and Suarez struggles with righties. He has a .361 wOBA with a .220 ISO and a 44.7% hard-hit rate against righties this season. While the ballpark will help with it some, I still like the three power righties here. Reyes has a .283 ISO with a .462 wOBA against lefties in 70 PAs.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Bullpen days for some struggling pens
For the first time in a long time, the Orioles (5.41 FIP, 9.4 K-BB%) are not the worst bullpen in the majors over a trailing 30 day span. They are still one of seven above a five FIP over the last month though and will be working entirely out of that bullpen tonight against the Blue Jays without a starter named yet. The Marlins (5.58 FIP, 10.3 K-BB%) have the worst bullpen FIP over the last 30 days and send out Trevor Richards against the Nationals in Miami. The Twins (5.51 FIP, 10 K-BB%) will also be going with a bullpen day in Detroit. The Nationals (5.49 FIP, 11.0 K-BB%) start Erick Fedde in Miami. The Rangers will give Adrian Sampson his second start at home against the Rays. The Cardinals (5.23 FIP, 5.4 K-BB%) have innings eater Miles Mikolas in Atlanta. The Reds (5.04 FIP, 10.3 K-BB%) will back occasionally HR prone Anthony DeSclafani in a very dangerous park in Milwaukee. Additionally, both the Padres (3.62 FIP, 20.2 K-BB%) and Astros (2.91 FIP, 21.7 K-BB%) will be starting pitchers averaging fewer than five innings per start (Bryan Mitchell, Framber Valdez), but are not bullpens to be trifled with lightly.
Oh, September Baseball
You know it’s a tough slate when we’re saying Andrew Suarez is one of the safest options for SP2. The Padres offense is actually a little better against left-handed pitching, but the projected starting lineup still has a 22.4% strikeout rate against lefties. Suarez has struggled against righties (.361 wOBA .220 ISO), but outside of the three righties with power, the rest of this lineup is not good. He’s cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, which makes him a decent option on a slate with very limited pitching options.
Like The Strikeout Rate Against Righties
It is really ugly tonight when we’re looking for value pitchers, and while I think Suarez has a nice floor, I think Fedde has more upside. He’s receiving a ballpark upgrade going to Miami tonight, and this ballpark should help with his ISO numbers against righties. He has a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 50% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters this season and should face at least five righties in this lineup tonight. Outside of Realmuto, no one in the projected starting lineup has an ISO over .165 against right-handed pitching this season. I don’t love it, but I think Fedde is playable in tournaments tonight.
Value in the mid and low price ranges at pitcher
Monday’s 12 game board seems fairly deep in pitching value among the mid and lower price ranges. Looking for a DK SP2 to compliment a higher priced arm? Erick Fedde has struck out 26 of his last 41 batters and faces the Marlins (sub-85 wRC+ at home, vs RHP and last seven days) in a great park for just $5.3K on DraftKings. Andrew Suarez might be a league average arm by strikeouts and estimators, but faces the Padres (90 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB% vs LHP) for $7K or less. Hyun-Jin Ryu won’t throw more than 90 pitches and isn’t very cheap, but he’s gotten through at least 5.2 innings in four of his last six starts and takes a 28.5 K% up against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 24.1 K% on the road) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Miles Mikolas is a low strikeout arm (17.2%) in a low strikeout spot (Braves 20.2 K% vs RHP), but he’s a great contact manager (85.4 mph aEV) in a strong contact management spot (Braves 95 wRC+, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP) at a reasonable cost of $7.3K on FanDuel. Only Zack Wheeler is averaging more innings per start. Kyle Hendricks has his strikeout rate just above 20% now with an 85.1 mph aEV. The Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP. Joe Musgrove has completed seven innings in eight of 18 starts and while results have been less spectacular lately, he does get the Royals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) at home without a DH.
Other tagged players: Kyle Hendricks, Miles Mikolas, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Andrew Suarez, Erick Fedde My Lock-And-Loaded Value Bat
With the amount of hard hits and fly balls that Jordan Zimmermann allows, I will have Cave in all my lineups (I typically play 1-3 lineups). I like to target Cave against pitchers that don’t strike a lot of people out and tend to throw more pitches in the zone. Zimmermann fits the build for both of those with a 20.2% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate against lefties this season. He’s allowing a .226 ISO with a 35% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Cave has a .216 ISO with a .503 CXwOBA and a 37.4% hard-hit rate against righties in 2018.
Top pitcher tonight may only be stopped by weather concerns
Patrick Corbin and Zack Wheeler are the only two pitchers exceeding $10K on both major sites tonight. Corbin (31.1 K%, 2.84 SIERA, .290 xwOBA) leads the slate in strikeout rate and SIERA by a fairly wide margin and is only .003 points off the xwOBA lead. He has at least seven strikeouts in 10 straight starts, failing to complete six innings only once in that span. He faces an ice cold Cubs’ offense (46 wRC+, -1.3 Hard-Soft% last seven days) that has just a 10.2 HR/FB and 22.7 K% vs LHP. He’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings by more than $1K, but less than Wheeler on FanDuel. Wheeler (24.5 K%, 3.80 SIERA, .288 xwOBA) has been one of the top contact managers in baseball (84.7 mph aEV) and has just a .209 xwOBA over the last 30 days. He’s gone at least seven innings in five straight and nine of 11 starts. Since the All-Star break, he has a 1.32 ERA, 2.31 FIP and 22.4 K-BB%. He’s got the Phillies (95 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs RHP) on the road tonight (park downgrade). Wheeler is most expensive on FanDuel, but just the SP3 on DraftKings. On the downside, Kevin has detailed some weather concerns for this game. Mike Foltynewicz (27.5 K%, 3.70 SIERA, .289 xwOBA) costs more than Wheeler on DraftKings, but less than $10K on FanDuel. He has a league average 10.1 SwStr% with an 88.1 mph aEV that call into question how he’s sustained his level of success this season, but RHBs do have just a .259 wOBA against him and he’s facing a predominantly RH lineup (Cardinals 95 wRC+, 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Mike Foltynewicz