DFS Alerts

Attacking the Worst Pitcher on the Slate

There’s no nice way to say this, so let’s just get it out there: the 2018 MLB version of Yovani Gallardo is nothing better than a trash heap starting pitcher. He can’t strike anyone out. He’s walking more hitters. He has no ability to control batted balls. It’s just ugly all around. The Angels are the most logical spot for a full stack tonight, from the pricey outfielders like Trout and Ohtani to the value pieces like Fernandez and Fletcher. Fernandez hit his first career home run for the only run in last night’s game, but I expect the Angels to do a lot more damage than that tonight against one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Stack ‘em up.

Two Great One-Off Power Plays

I’m not in the mood for a full stack of the Cubs tonight, but both Bryant and Baez stand out as fine one-off options, particularly in tournaments. Both have massive power upside, and they draw a matchup against Chase Anderson, a fly ball RHP who has shown signs of reverse splits throughout his career. If you have the salary to spend for either, they make plenty of sense, as Baez owns a team-best .269 wOBA this year, and Bryant is more affordable than we normally see.

Right Back To The Well

I could just copy what I said about Jose Miguel Fernandez yesterday. We don’t have a lot of value on this 8-game slate, and at this price, I really like Jose Miguel Fernandez again tonight. Gallardo has a 5.54 xFIP with a 13.6% strikeout rate and a 11.5% walk rate. Gallardo has a very low swinging strike rate and with the amount of hard contact he allows, the Angels are a top stack for me. Jose Miguel Fernandez has a .319 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 65 PAs, but he has a .366 CXwOBA against a pitcher with limited strikeout upside. He had a .405 wOBA with a 143 wRC+ in 394 PAs in AAA this season.

The Logical Salary Saver on the Mound

There’s not a ton to love in the way of cheap pitching tonight, and Pena is the most logical choice. He has steadied the ship of late and has put up some impressive performances, as he has gone seven innings in each of his last two outings while allowing just three total runs. He also hasn’t walked a single batter in those outings, and tonight’s matchup is a favorable one against Texas, a team that has given up on the season and gets a massive negative park shift here. The matchup adds to Pena’s upside, and I’ll happily target him as a SP #2 option in all formats tonight.

In Desperate Need of a Big Game

The Phillies are fading fast from the playoff race, and they desperately need a big game from their ace after losing both games of a double-header on Tuesday. As for Nola, his numbers remain elite across the board with an ERA in the low twos and a fantastic batted ball profile. Throw in his solid command and a 27% strikeout rate that is well above league average, and you have a nice combination of floor and ceiling every time he pitches. This team is in a free fall right now, but hopefully that serves to lower Nola’s GPP ownership. This is the type of game where he should step up and play the “stopper” role for his team, and I think we see a big game.

Leveraging Projected Ownership?

It’s hard to get a pulse on projected ownership early in the day, but this is a spot to keep an eye on as we get closer to lineup lock. Patrick Corbin is certainly a pitcher who is capable of having success even at Coors Field, and it’s going to be difficult to justify paying high price tags for the elite Colorado bats. For that reason, I think we might see the likes of Arenado and Story go way under-owned in GPP formats tonight. Both of these guys have elite splits against left-handed pitching and have immense upside, so this is a spot where I will simply look to find GPP leverage. If our ownership projections have these elite RHBs going over-looked tonight, pounce on them in GPP formats. You could even add in a guy like Matt Holliday for a little salary relief if you like, should he crack the usual #5 spot where he has been hitting against lefties.

A negative K-BB% boosts west coast run line

A 4.86 implied run line in Seattle is basically like a six run line at Coors. but that’s the Bryan Mitchell effect, a pitcher with a -5.1 K-BB% through 53 innings. While LHBs have a .359 wOBA against him, RHBs are above .400. Mitch Haniger (138 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP this season) and Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+, .157 ISO) should mash…or walk and then mash. Either way, there will likely be a lot of traffic on the bases for the Mariners tonight.

Delay potential in a few spots on Tuesday

There’s delay potential in a few spots for Tuesday night in the updated forecast. The entire report can be read on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will receive further forecast updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

A 55 Hard% vs LHP plus a 220 wRC+ and 76.9 Hard% last seven days

For the second day in a row, the Brewers face a potentially over-valued Cubs’ LH starter, who has struggled against RHBs this year. They have just a 4.06 implied run line at Wrigley with weather not expected to be much of a factor and RHBs have a .338 wOBA (.358 xwOBA) against Jose Quintana this year. That’s not terrible, but it is below average and the Brewers boast three quality RHBs in Lorenzo Cain (178 wRC+, 173 ISO vs LHP this year), Jesus Aguilar (126 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Ryan Braun (126 wRC+, .276 ISO). Braun has a 55 Hard% against LHP as well and a 220 wRC+ with a 76.9 Hard% over the last seven days overall.

The Twins are going with a bullpen day against the Yankees today. Tyler Duffey will open, but he hasn’t faced more than 12 batters in an outing this season and only once more than 10 since April. The Yankees are still well regarded tonight, tied for the second highest implied run line on the board (5.45), but it’s a difficult matchup to analyze when we don’t know who they’ll be facing beyond that first PA. Let’s at least note that every batter in the lineup has at least a .150 ISO vs RHP this season and they’ll likely be facing more pitches from righties than lefties, though with expanded rosters, who knows? Aaron Hicks (132 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP this season) and Miguel Andujar (132 wRC+, .223 ISO) are probably the most interesting plays here.

The Diamondbacks are expected to have a healthy offensive showing at Coors tonight (5.45 implied run line is second best on the board). Antonio Senzatela is considered the weak link in a much improved Colorado rotation. He’s actually struggled more with same handed batters (.350 wOBA, .352 xwOBA, 42.1 Hard%). The Diamondbacks employ a bit of a stars and scrubs lineup with the top half of the lineup hammering RHP from either side of the plate. The problem is that Paul Goldschmidt (140 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP this year), David Peralta (149 wRC+, .246 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (112 wRC+, .205 ISO) all carry substantial price tags. Eduardo Escobar (120 wRC+, .252 ISO) does cost less than $4K on FanDuel though and Jon Jay (93 wRC+, .105 ISO) is a bit cheaper than him with the likely opportunity to score some runs tonight.

Cheap Bats In A Prime Spot

The bottom of the Red Sox order is a prime spot to find some cheap bats on FanDuel tonight. The Red Sox have the highest implied team total on the slate, and everyone in the order will benefit from the overall team context. Ian Kinsler has the highest contact rate of any batter in the lineup against lefties, going up against the low 15.1% K of Ryan Borucki.

Struggling pitcher in a terrible spot

The Rockies barely eclipse five implied runs (5.07 places them fifth) against Zack Greinke (24.6 K%, 3.53 SIERA, .324 xwOBA) at Coors. This is an interesting matchup because Greinke has just a 20.9 K% over the last month, in which he’s allowed at least three runs in three of four starts. He does have some issues with contact management, which Coors will only magnify. While he’s held batters from either side of the plate to a wOBA below .300, xwOBA pushed both sides a bit above .320 with a hard hit rate above 37%. Charlie Blackmon (118 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this season) and David Dahl (131 wRC+, .281 ISO) are still top of the board bats here. Both are above a 180 wRC+ over the last week. That said, this is still an expensive lineup, which dictates players will have to sacrifice Jacob deGrom, but they’re certainly a nice GPP option if ownership projections dictate they might be under-owned. There also appears to be a favorable umpiring assignment in this affair.

While the Cubs recognize Jhoulys Chacin’s sizable platoon splits (LHBs .341 wOBA, 40.1 Hard% this season). They stack the lineup with six LHBs among position players. However, just four of those LHBs are above a 100 wRC+ and/or .100 ISO vs RHP this season and one of them bats ninth. A top half stack of this Cubs’ lineup looks good though, and includes Daniel Murphy (134 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP in 2018), Anthony Rizzo (142 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Ben Zobrist (134 wRC+, .171 ISO).

Expensive, hard hitting lineup with a park upgrade facing an improved pitcher

The Oakland A’s get a substantial park upgrade and they hit the ball HARD. Jed Lowrie (141 wRC+, .224 ISO, 37.6 Hard%) is the only batter among the first six in the lineup below a 40% hard hit rate against RHP this year. All six are above a .220 ISO as well. The A’s have a 5.1 implied run line that’s fourth highest on the board tonight. RHBs, of which their are seven, have a .363 wOBA against Cobb this season despite a 52.1 GB%, while LHBs have a formidable .330 mark as well (46.5 GB%). However, since his last start before the break (10 starts), Cobb has a respectable 4.38 FIP (2.67 ERA). Over that span, RHBs are still better than LHBs with a .330 wOBA and 31.3 Hard% though. Matt Chapman (150 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP this year) and Khris Davis (141 wRC+, .132 ISO) are still premium plays in this spot. This bullpen is still atrocious, but this is an expensive Oakland lineup and Cobb is no longer a punching bag.